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2024 Console Sales Estimates for Japan, US, and Europe (UK and Germany not included)

LordOcidax

LordOcidax

Member
Playstation 5: 11.28 Million (~6 Million welfare estimates + 1.5 Million from Famitsu + 3.68 Million Europe estimates)

Nintendo Switch 8.54 Million (~3.2 Million welfare estimates + 3.1 Million from Famitsu + 2.24 Million Europe estimates )

Official figures by Nintendo (Calendar year 2024)
JP: 3.48 million
NA: 3.97 million
EU: 2.85 million
OT: 1.19 million
Total: 11.50 million

Xbox Series 3.15 Million (~2.7 Million from Welfare estimates + 0.16 from Famitsu + 0.29 Million Europe estimates)

Sony sales projection for the PS5 is 18 Million FY2024
Nintendo sales projection for the Switch is 11 Million FY2024

Update: Europe estimates added (UK and Germany not included) thanks to Woopah Woopah
 
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Robb

Robb

Gold Member
LordOcidax said:
Playstation 5: 11.28 Million

Nintendo Switch 8.21 Million

Xbox Series 3.15 Million
Click to expand...
wwn1qqZ.jpeg
 
Killjoy-NL

Killjoy-NL

Member
LordOcidax said:
Playstation 5: 11.28 Million (~6 Million welfare estimates + 1.5 Million from Famitsu + 3.68 Million Europe estimates)

Nintendo Switch 8.21 Million (~3.2 Million welfare estimates + 3.1 Million from Famitsu + 1.91 Millon Europe estimates )

Xbox Series 3.15 Million (~2.7 Million from Welfare estimates + 0.16 from Famitsu + 0.29 Million Europe estimates)

Update: Europe estimates added (UK and Germany not included) thanks to Woopah Woopah
Click to expand...
So, PS5 outselling XBS 3.5-4x worldwide.

MS should just quit hardware at this point.
 
LordOcidax

LordOcidax

Member
Topher said:
So they will have to at least match Q3 and Q4 numbers from FY 2023 to get to 18 million based on the numbers from 1H FY 2024. Seems doable considering they launched Pro in Q3.
Click to expand...
FY23 was the peak year for PS5, even with the Pro in the market they were down in December, it’s going to be almost impossible to reach the sales forecast of 18 million IMO, Maybe they are going to adjust again Down to 16 million and that’s 5 million less than their initial forecast of 21 Million.
 
Topher

Topher

Identifies as young
LordOcidax said:
FY23 was the peak year for PS5, even with the Pro in the market they were down in December, it’s going to be almost impossible to reach the sales forecast of 18 million IMO, Maybe they are going to adjust again Down to 16 million and that’s 5 million less than their initial forecast of 21 Million.
Click to expand...

How do you know PS5 was down in December? Oh....is that based on Circana?
 
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Mibu no ookami

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
LordOcidax said:
18 Million after adjustment.
Click to expand...

What adjustments are you referring to? They have not adjusted their forecast this fiscal year.

LordOcidax said:
FY23 was the peak year for PS5, even with the Pro in the market they were down in December, it’s going to be almost impossible to reach the sales forecast of 18 million IMO, Maybe they are going to adjust again Down to 16 million and that’s 5 million less than their initial forecast of 21 Million.
Click to expand...

They were down in December but they were up in November.

You're conflating their results from the previous fiscal year with this fiscal year.

LordOcidax said:
18% Down compared to December 2023 according to Circana in the US, Bigger drop in Japan according to Famitsu.
Click to expand...

Up 15% in November and being down 18% in dollar sales doesn't necessarily tell us everything given the offsetting factors of the PS5 Pro's increased price but the heavier discounting of the PS5 and PS5 Digital.

Unit wise, my guess is that they'll come close to matching Q3 of the previous fiscal year, which will put them in a decent position to hit their forecast. That being said their January looks pretty bad. They're still selling PS5s at discounted levels on PS Direct and they haven't sold out of that SKU, meanwhile they're tracking really poorly on Amazon.
 
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LordOcidax

LordOcidax

Member
Mibu no ookami said:
What adjustments are you referring to? They have not adjusted their forecast this fiscal year.
Click to expand...
From Google
p3bmr8b.jpeg

Mibu no ookami said:
Unit wise, my guess is that they'll come close to matching Q3 of the previous fiscal year, which will put them in a decent position to hit their forecast. That being said their January looks pretty bad. They're still selling PS5s at discounted levels on PS Direct and they haven't sold out of that SKU, meanwhile they're tracking really poorly on Amazon.
Click to expand...
Remember that we are talking about World Wide sales numbers, that’s why i used Circana and Famitsu.
 
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P

pulicat

Member
Hero_Select

Hero_Select

Member
All these people championing for Xboxs demise.. what do you want? Sony to be the only major high-end console so they can push more live service games unchecked?
 
Mibu no ookami

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Hero_Select said:
All these people championing for Xboxs demise.. what do you want? Sony to be the only major high-end console so they can push more live service games unchecked?
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone is "championing" Xboxes demise, rather pointing out the reality of the situation. Rather than push Xbox to make good decisions, media and social media has propped them up in hopes to keep balance in "console wars."

If Microsoft had been held to any strict standards, they might have taken a significantly different approach and might have been more successful.

It's over though.

Competition for Sony is going to have to come from Nintendo and from the PC space.
 
Mibu no ookami

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Woopah said:
Not sure why Google was saying that, but 18 million was always their target.

21 million was their target for last fiscal year.
Click to expand...

Just AI conflating last year and this year and not understanding the difference because AI models aren't very smart especially when it comes to figures like this.

Sony might slightly miss their forecast due to a very weak January, but February/March could help them get closer. It really comes down to the impact of PlayStation in Japan with Monster Hunter Wilds. Sony is going to need to have some very strong promotions with the game, something they've really not done with other games like FF7 Rebirth.

I expect this COULD be a strong year for PlayStation in Japan with Monster Hunter, Ghost of Yotei, and GTA6. Next year Onimusha is out, so that run may continue, and my guess is that Dragon Quest 12 could come out next year, but price is a major factor in Japan.
 
Woopah

Woopah

Member
Mibu no ookami said:
Just AI conflating last year and this year and not understanding the difference because AI models aren't very smart especially when it comes to figures like this.

Sony might slightly miss their forecast due to a very weak January, but February/March could help them get closer. It really comes down to the impact of PlayStation in Japan with Monster Hunter Wilds. Sony is going to need to have some very strong promotions with the game, something they've really not done with other games like FF7 Rebirth.

I expect this COULD be a strong year for PlayStation in Japan with Monster Hunter, Ghost of Yotei, and GTA6. Next year Onimusha is out, so that run may continue, and my guess is that Dragon Quest 12 could come out next year, but price is a major factor in Japan.
Click to expand...
Now that the digital charts have come out, we know for sure that FF7 Rebirth and DQ III were the biggest games on PS5 in Japan last year. So I don't see any way this year is smaller.

MH Wilds, Ghost of Yotei and DQ 1+2 should be enough to make 2025 the biggest software year for PS5 yet, even if GTA VI slips.

I agree with you that DQ12 has a good chance to come next year. Onimusha I find hard to judge, as it's been so long since the last successful game.

The other two PS5 titles to look out for are RE9 and KH4. But we still need to see when they come out and if they are on Switch 2 or not.
 
TheGodfather07

TheGodfather07

Member
Europe seems low for PS5. Isn't that usually its strongest territory? Not surprised though as sony are so hesitant to do any price cuts. Every generation before already had a price cut by this point. Surely this year they cut the price? So many will be looking to get a PS5 for GTA VI. It's the perfect time to do an official price cut.
 
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StereoVsn

StereoVsn

Gold Member
Skifi28 said:
Why cut the price when so many people are looking to buy anyway?
Click to expand...
Because economy sucks and €399 would go over a lot better. Sony would make more money longer term on software sales and PSN subs.

They seem to be unwilling to forgo short term profits though which seems kind of shortsighted. You can also see the same approach in Pro pricing and Drive shenanigans.

Edit: Switch sales look to be falling quickly. Nintendo is kind of crazy to push off Switch 2 to 2nd half of the year.
 
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RetroGamingUK

RetroGamingUK

Member
TheGodfather07 said:
Europe seems low for PS5. Isn't that usually its strongest territory? Not surprised though as sony are so hesitant to do any price cuts. Every generation before already had a price cut by this point. Surely this year they cut the price? So many will be looking to get a PS5 for GTA VI. It's the perfect time to do an official price cut.
Click to expand...

There’s no economic growth in Europe.

We’ve been struggling with the cost of living in the UK for years now, it’s become such a shithole to live in.
 
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