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[Kimawolf]

Brexit.

Sigh.

So recently, we had Britain's “Mr. Brexit” Nigel Farage himself in the U.S. On all the news stations preaching about how there is a real “groundswell” support for Trump and how like in Britain ALL the polls are wrong as there is this huge “Shadow” vote (I suppose there could a lot of racists out there pretending not to be...”) which is just waiting to vote and how America will be in shock on Nov 9th.

Now today all the Trump surrogates are all out talking about how this is a “Brexit” scenario and how it will be like “Brexit”, even Trump himself is saying this will be “bigger than Brexit”.

This would be completely contrary to all the polls, which right now are showing there could be a democratic wave over both houses if she continues to win by 8 or 9 points. Hell its even looking like she may end up with almost 400 electoral college votes.


So a question.

With how America runs their elections, on a state by state basis, is it POSSIBLE there could be this huge, secret national swell of hidden support for Trump? Do you think he has a point that this could be a Brexit like situation?

And also thanks a lot Britain, for not only sending Farage over here, but ensuring that every election and any kind of national vote will now have the people referencing Brexit to counter any long shot vote forever.

 

[Feep]

Exceptionally unlikely. Brexit pulled within polling margin of error right at the end, if I'm not mistaken. Plus, if anything, Trump is depressing his voter turnout with all this "rigged" bullshit.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Brexit was never longshot. Leave and Remain were neck and neck in the polls right up to the end; almost all the major pollsters were within the margin of error. The message from Brexit is that polls are at least reasonably accurate and Clinton has probably won.

 

[Escape Goat]

Possible? Of course. Its also possible Hillary really is one of the lizard people.

 

[Quixzlizx]

Why do so many people think that Remain had a huge lead at the polls near the end? Wishful thinking?

 

[jelly]

If a part of the country did separate would you miss it?

 

[lyrick]

Nope. Just trust the polling

Spoiler

unless it's the LAT/USC poll.

 

[An-Det]

Nothing is impossible, but it won't happen. We are a much more diverse country, to our benefit. Sam Bee did a bit describing it a while back.

https://youtu.be/9r5P1z4OWWo

 

[EatinOlives]

As many have said, the Brexit polls were never as one-sided as the presidential polls are right now. That, and the fact that presidential elections are decided via electoral college means it's not a simple majority/popular vote.

We're fine. In no reality does there exist a "hidden" voting demographic that goes completely undetected by polls and is large enough to propel a nominee to the white house who has had the worst approval ratings and highest disapproval ratings in modern history. That Trump supporters genuinely believe this only reflects the fact that they're insane.

 

[Oppo]

14-16% chance last time I checked. so yes a chance.

there are parallels with Brexit but only in the broadest sense of xenophobia and fear driving things but after that it really isn't the same situation. like, this isn't a referendum, as pointed out above me.

 

[gutter_trash]

Remain had a shitty campaign,
Jeremy Corbyn was a shitty Remain surrogate would didn't do his job because he not so secretly wanted Leave to win

this is not the case in the US where the Clinton camp is armed with the strongest surrogates in modern Presidential history

 

[harriet the spy]

I never understood this stupid comparison. Remain was ahead but certainly not by much. The shock came from thinking brits couldn't possibly be that daft - this was in *spite* of the polls and the eventual result that showed that they were in fact that daft.

 

[HK-47]

Brexit comparisons are one of the many reasons I'm ready for this election to be over.

 

[Bleepey]

I seriously fear this, Hilary is unpopular as fuck and you have liberals like Jimmy Dore who think that voting third party sends a message to the "establishment". People voted to leave because they believed enough people would vote to stay. I personally would not risk a facist like Trump being president. I may not be crazy about Hilary but she'd be a damn sight better than Trump.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Why do so many people think that Remain had a huge lead at the polls near the end? Wishful thinking?

Seriously.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum
https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/uk-european-union-referendum

 

[platakul]

Brexit had support of people who may not have really wanted it but wanted to express dissatisfaction with current government. I think Trump has made himself so toxic that no one is really gonna vote for him as a joke or on a lark. Now they may not vote for Hill either but despite what people would have you believe that is not a vote for trump.

At some point I think trump was in a position to upset hillary even if the demos were always working against the GOP, but he could never moderate because he's a big dumb oaf. Rememebr Farage and others sold UK on a bill of fake goods that they inmediately revealed were lies after the vote.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Except the idea that about secret voters based on Brexit doesn't really work because the final polls showed an actual toss-up.

 

[excelsiorlef]

I seriously fear this, Hilary is unpopular as fuck and you have liberals like Jimmy Dore who think that voting third party sends a message to the "establishment". People voted to leave because they believed enough people would vote to stay. I personally would not risk a facist like Trump being president. I may not be crazy about Hilary but she'd be a damn sight better than Trump.

Jimmy Dore represents nothing but the delusions of his own mind.

 

[jelly]

It's whether people are two faced when asked if they support Trump, that's a worry. Probably not enough to swing it though.

 

[Skellig Gra]

This situation has never been anything like Brexit. Brexit was a constant campaign for decades to sour public opinion, Trump is some moron who has no realistic chance of winning.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Brexit is, by far, the most flawed comparison to the 2016 Presidential election that people just need to stop with. I'm not even talking about the possibility or impossibility of a Trump win, but the circumstances and situations surrounding the two are in vastly different worlds. The only real similarity they have is that they both have xenophobia driven beginnings, but I would argue even that is different overall.

People who continue to compare them really only show how little they know about each event.

 

[Bleepey]

I don't know how people can't see the Brexit comparisons. Brexit happened because people wanted to send a message to the establishment by voting against their interests. Americans really hate Hilary and are voting for a guy who is kind of an idiot at best and is of honest a facist, fraudster, compulsive liar, racist, sexist, xenophobic incompetent jackass. Trump was poling at identical levels and at times better than her for large parts of the campaign. You should be scared. You should be fucking scared.

 

[Massive Duck. C.M.]

There's nothing for America to exit really, and a Trump-like figure becoming president or at least a candidate has been on the horizon since the civil rights era.

 

[HK-47]

I don't know how people can't see the Brexit comparisons. Brexit happened because people wanted to send a message to the establishment by voting against their interests. Americans really hate Hilary and are voting for a guy who is kind of an idiot at best and is of honest a facist, fraudster, compulsive liar, racist, sexist, xenophobic incompetent jackass. Trump was poling at identical levels and at times better than her for large parts of the campaign. You should be scared. You should be fucking scared.

This is whole "we cant trust polling" thing you have going on is not a good look and betrays a lack of understanding.

 

[Armaros]

This is whole "we cant trust polling" thing you have going on is not a good look and betrays a lack of understanding.

Also voting in a US presidential election is not like voting for Brexit.

 

[gutter_trash]

I don't know how people can't see the Brexit comparisons. Brexit happened because people wanted to send a message to the establishment by voting against their interests. Americans really hate Hilary and are voting for a guy who is kind of an idiot at best and is of honest a facist, fraudster, compulsive liar, racist, sexist, xenophobic incompetent jackass. Trump was poling at identical levels and at times better than her for large parts of the campaign. You should be scared. You should be fucking scared.

Demographics for one:
UK is 80% White, US is over 60%
Trump is losing educated white women (Romney won educated white women in 2012)

Electoral College Vote.
Popular vote matters not, the EV is all

Trump has no ground game.

+Brexit was not well explained to the electorate. People voted for it without giving a fuck because the Remain campaign failed. Corbyn failed to do his job

 

[Rest]

If a part of the country did separate would you miss it?

Spoiler

If there was an OP would you read it?

There are some states in the south I think we could do without. And Oregon. We should get rid of Oregon.

This situation has never been anything like Brexit. Brexit was a constant campaign for decades to sour public opinion, Trump is some moron who has no realistic chance of winning.

You wish he didn't have a chance. He has a very real chance, and it's a bad bad thing.

 

[mo60]

More likely to end up like the federal election in Canada last year where the more liberal party won by a big margin against the conservative party because they stayed trapped in the low 30's for share of the vote because the majprity of voters despised the head of the party and the party in general while the liberal party siphoned up a lot of the vote from the left and moderates to win. The same element can be noticed in the US election. The mjority of voters depsise trump and don't necessarily want to vote for him while his opponent(Hilary) mostly has the support of people on the left and moderates.As a result trump is trapped in the high thirties to low fourties in the polls while hilary is close to 50%. Also, I don't think leave ever had a low ceiling in the polls ever like Donald does currently.

 

[johnsmith]

If the polls are wrong, they'll be wrong in Clinton's favor. Her ground game and his complete lack of one isn't being accounted in the polls. Undecideds actually break for the incumbent, and she is essentially the incumbent in this election. Plus his rigged talk will depress his turnout. Why vote for him when she's just going to win anyway?

 

[kmfdmpig]

I can't see that.

The Brexit vote seemed like it would be a nail-biter the whole way through, and those of us who wanted the UK to stay were taking solace in a very minor polling lead.

Trump vs. Hillary is not a very close match-up nationwide, even less close when parsing out electoral college votes, and momentum is on Clinton's side with no more debates coming and not much time for things to swing the other (aka the wrong) way. Early voting has already started, and short of Hillary being videotaped kicking a dog, a child, and an old woman I can't imagine that opinion will shift between now and the 8th, particularly when Trump continues to have problems and expose himself as an ignorant ass.

 

[jack_package_200]

I seriously fear this, Hilary is unpopular as fuck and you have liberals like Jimmy Dore who think that voting third party sends a message to the "establishment". People voted to leave because they believed enough people would vote to stay. I personally would not risk a facist like Trump being president. I may not be crazy about Hilary but she'd be a damn sight better than Trump.

Do yourself a favor and stop watching TYT. There is nothing liberal or progressive about Jmmy Dore.

 

[Slayven]

What would an american brexit be? We are the top dog.

Unless you mean white people raising up and saying "enough stinking minorities"?

Could they? Yeah

But not likely.

 

[richiek]

Wow, people are still comparing the 2016 US election to Brexit?

 

[Dazza]

I dunno but if we do we are seriously getting close to the John Titor timeline

 

[Box of Kittens]

Brexit comparisons for the general are a lot like all the 2008 comparisons we had during the primary that cast Sanders in the role of Obama. There's a superficial resemblance, but it falls apart under the slightest scrutiny.

 

[Mr.Sumal]

Demographics for one:
UK is 80% White, US is over 60%
Trump is losing educated white women (Romney won educated white women in 2012)

Electoral College Vote.
Popular vote matters not, the EV is all

Trump has no ground game.

+Brexit was not well explained to the electorate. People voted for it without giving a fuck because the Remain campaign failed. Corbyn failed to do his job

You mean Cameron

 

[Bleepey]

This is whole "we cant trust polling" thing you have going on is not a good look and betrays a lack of understanding.

I never said you can't trust polling. I said you can't be complacent. Brexit polling suggested it was neck and neck.

 

[Skellig Gra]

I don't know how people can't see the Brexit comparisons. Brexit happened because people wanted to send a message to the establishment by voting against their interests. Americans really hate Hilary and are voting for a guy who is kind of an idiot at best and is of honest a facist, fraudster, compulsive liar, racist, sexist, xenophobic incompetent jackass. Trump was poling at identical levels and at times better than her for large parts of the campaign. You should be scared. You should be fucking scared.

I'm not even remotely scared. I've been saying it all along, Trump has no chance of winning. The presidential election is always about swing states and Trump has done nothing but try to cater to his hardcore base. There just aren't enough racist white males left in the country to swing the whole election.

 

[Kazerei]

I don't know how people can't see the Brexit comparisons. Brexit happened because people wanted to send a message to the establishment by voting against their interests. Americans really hate Hilary and are voting for a guy who is kind of an idiot at best and is of honest a facist, fraudster, compulsive liar, racist, sexist, xenophobic incompetent jackass. Trump was poling at identical levels and at times better than her for large parts of the campaign. You should be scared. You should be fucking scared.

What polls have you been looking at?

 

[Slayven]

Possible? Of course. Its also possible Hillary really is one of the lizard people.

Are you really Bronsonlee? Did you delete 20k emails proving that you are?

 

[ModBot]

Feel free to discuss in one of the existing threads or PoliGAF. Also, no.