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[Chiggs]

Intel Stock Falls After Chipmaker Badly Misses Second-Quarter Targets

Chipmaker Intel late Thursday badly missed expectations for the second quarter. Intel stock tumbled in extended trading.

www.investors.com

Intel stock tumbled Friday after the chipmaker badly missed expectations for the second quarter and cut its outlook for the full year.

The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company late Thursday said it earned an adjusted 29 cents a share on sales of $15.3 billion in the June quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet expected Intel (INTC) earnings of 69 cents a share on sales of $17.94 billion. On a year-over-year basis, Intel earnings plummeted 79% while sales declined 17%.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann called Intel's report an "unmitigated disaster." In a note to clients, he said the deterioration of Intel's data center business was particularly alarming. He reiterated his sell rating on Intel stock and cut his price target to 30 from 40.

Some dark days for the chipmaker, and with AMD firing on all cylinders, including the upcoming release of AM5 and Ryzen 7000 and growth in data centers, it's not going to get any easier. Then factor in the slow-rolling disaster that is Arc-- now rumored to be delayed, and Nvidia set to pounce with RTX 4000, and you can see how things could really start to spiral out of control for Pat Gelsinger.

But hey....at least there are government subsidies to be had. So take heart, Intel-faithful...despite being outperformed by his competitors, Pat has planted his lips firmly on the government's teet, and will suck it dry until the new fab site in Ohio is fully built, so it can produce a ton of chips that nobody really wants (that is, unless AMD or Nvidia decide to use it).

You can almost hear the Intel board praying desperately for the tension between US and China to escalate even more.

 

[Jennings]

The layman in me is shouting, "79% drop? Buy buy buy!"

 

[64bitmodels]

Damn, their stocks are falling and yet their CPU temps are rising!

 

[kikkis]

I wouldn't read too much into this. I don't think arc is bad as long as it runs new games fairly well. I mean if Intel isn't doing too well, then I don't think amd will fly either because of some new gaming cpu.

 

[KyoZz]

And they want to increase their price by 20%

 

[StreetsofBeige]

And just last quarter they said their forecasts were fine. They missed this earnings by a mile. Pretty hard to miss estimates by this much in only 90 days, BUT it's easy to miss when it's.....

Lies, Lies, Lies.

 

[Chiggs]

I wouldn't read too much into this. I don't think arc is bad as long as it runs new games fairly well. I mean if Intel isn't doing too well, then I don't think amd will fly either because of some new gaming cpu.

When typically reserved analysts refer to your earnings statement as an "unmitigated disaster," because of increased competition across ALL segments, then it is time to start worrying.

But again, they have the government feeding them billions to stop the bleeding. That fab site better go off according to plan, though...or Pat and friends will be in front of the Feds in a few years.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

This industry is fucking insane.

 

[kikkis]

When typically reserved analysts refer to your earnings statement as an "unmitigated disaster," because of increased competition across ALL segments, then it is time to start worrying.

But again, they have the government feeding them billions to stop the bleeding. That fab site better go off according to plan, though...or Pat and friends will be in front of the Feds in a few years.

I just think if analyst considers the data center the worst problem, I don't think amd captured rest of the business in a quarter. More like there is much less demand in data centers which is going to affect amd greatly too.

 

[Closer]

But Leonidas tho

 

[Trogdor1123]

It is crazy. They were so far a head for so long and now, it feels like that actually caused them so many issues. Don’t they have a new architecture out soon? Will that get them back in the game?

 

[Ozriel]

I don’t understand. With such strong competition and faced with the prospect of reducing orders, how does it make any sense for them to want to increase prices by 20%?

 

[Chiggs]

It is crazy. They were so far a head for so long and now, it feels like that actually caused them so many issues. Don’t they have a new architecture out soon? Will that get them back in the game?

I think their problems are bigger than that, but Pat is playing the long game with the CHIPS Act. If he can get that new Ohio fab plant, then there's an argument to be made that he could use that to truly turn around the company by making fabrication the core function of Intel's business; not chip design, which they have sucked at for quite some time now. And don't forget that what Apple is doing with M1 and M2 is making huge waves because of their remarkable efficiency gains.

But we all know Taiwan is going to get rocked at some point, so if Intel has a huge fab site in the US, then it's feasible that companies like AMD, Apple and Nvidia could use it. That could be huge.

The problem is, the Europeans are starting to realize there's money in this, too....so it's a race against time, as it always is.

 

[Dr. Acid Avatar]

Pretty sure Intel bought Mobileye 5 years or so ago. Last I heard they're still the leader in camera based ADAS systems. I think Intel will be fine long term, this will produce a huge revenue stream in the future.

 

[Jigsaah]

Didn't Intel get a new boss dude recently? Guess he couldn't put out the fire in time.

 

[StateofMajora]

Sapphire rapids delays are really hurting them. Their consumer cpus are better than amd overall, depends on the price point, but the server side needs a swift kick in the ass. Damn it, Pat.

Long term the stock is great, but there's work to be done. Chips act was desperately needed.

 

[winjer]

Intel spent almost a decade sleeping on it's laurels.
Then AMD, Apple, ARM, AWS, all started to catch up, or even surpass Intel.
On the manufacturing nodes, it's the same thing. From market leader, to being surpassed by TSMC and Samsung.
And their GPU division isn't doing any better, with GPUs that barely compete with the RTX 3000 at a time when the RTX 4000 are almost in the market.
No wonder Pat Gelsinger blamed Brian Krzanich for putting Intel in a weak spot.

Now the Chips Act might be a savior. If it was Krzanich, he would probably use the money to pad stock values and assure shareholders.
Fortunately, Pat is an Engineer first and foremost, with the capabilities to recover Intel's product development.

 

[Elios83]

Weren't they recovering on the desktop CPU side? I mean if you don't care about power consumption at least

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Intel spent almost a decade sleeping on it's laurels.
Then AMD, Apple, ARM, AWS, all started to catch up, or even surpass Intel.
On the manufacturing nodes, it's the same thing. From market leader, to being surpassed by TSMC and Samsung.
And their GPU division isn't doing any better, with GPUs that barely compete with the RTX 3000 at a time when the RTX 4000 are almost in the market.
No wonder Pat Gelsinger blamed Brian Krzanich for putting Intel in a weak spot.

Now the Chips Act might be a savior. If it was Krzanich, he would probably use the money to pad stock values and assure shareholders.
Fortunately, Pat is an Engineer first and foremost, with the capabilities to recover Intel's product development.

In terms of stock price, it's been a dead stock for 20 years since the dot com boom in 2000 breaking $75. It dropped to around $30-40 for almost 20 years. Went up to $60 and now down back to $35. (all prices split adjusted).

Just about every other big tech company zoomed up the charts since 2000.

 

[Miyazaki’s Slave]

Damn, their stocks are falling and yet their CPU temps are rising!

 

[PSYGN]

The layman in me is shouting, "79% drop? Buy buy buy!"

Drop it like it's hot

 

[64bitmodels]

would you say it burnt more than an Intel CPU running Cyberpunk?

 

[Miyazaki’s Slave]

would you say it burnt more than an Intel CPU running Cyberpunk?

"This is your Intel chip....any questions?"

 

[Pelta88]

How many gamers among us are active traders in the stock market?

We need an OT.

 

[winjer]

To keep their CPUs competitive, Intel had to push clocks higher and higher. And the result is that power efficiency got thrown out the window.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

But Leonidas tho

To be fair, he has actually been rather restrained in the last year once he realized that AMD is now actually competing, but I will always appreciate this gem.

RIP Navi

RTX 2060 Super seems great

 

[SmokedMeat]

Intel CPUs are nice, but I see no reason to buy one over AMD. Their GPU segment completely missed the boat. Now we have a glut of Nvidia and AMD GPUs in the marketplace, who the hell will want an Intel GPU? Are they going to sell them at a loss?

 

[LordCBH]

Intels lunch is getting eaten by every single other chip company except for Qualcomm, so it’s not surprising.

 

[LordOfChaos]

Woof, that was some disasters earnings and guidance

So anyways, I started blasting...I mean buying. Foundry service may take years to scale but could be huge for them, GPU's may be pretty mediocre in this first gen but if they keep at it that could add a lot to the bottom line especially in datacenter over the years as compute devices.

Even with the drop they do still have the cashflow for a turnaround, on the long 3-5 year game it looks super appealing today, even if it will be in a world of suck for the short term.

Didn't Intel get a new boss dude recently? Guess he couldn't put out the fire in time.

New architectures and foundries can take 3-5 years, turnarounds take time, but short term financial woes aside they're doing the right things in reinvesting in becoming the best foundry and chipmaker rather than financial manipulations for quarter to quarter results. They're already more competitive than when they were caught with their pants down, with Alder Lake being pushed a bit too far on the power use but generally not embarrassing, and Rocket coming this year, and those would have been largely developed under Bob Swan

 

[rochet]

Today was a tough pill to swallow today, I have 1300 shares at avg 47. I do think they will turn around but they need to stop delaying there product. All I am hoping for is that zen 5 amd chips will get delayed too. However will be interesting to see what AMD has to say coming Tuesday. I was kind of hoping to upgrade from my 10900k to what every the new meteor lake chip would be called at the end of the year, but its starting to look like beginning of 23. I think they really messed up with ARC but will see. Still holding and slowly accumulating still.

 

[LordOfChaos]

Today was a tough pill to swallow today, I have 1300 shares at avg 47. I do think they will turn around but they need to stop delaying there product. All I am hoping for is that zen 5 amd chips will get delayed too. However will be interesting to see what AMD has to say coming Tuesday. I was kind of hoping to upgrade from my 10900k to what every the new meteor lake chip would be called at the end of the year, but its starting to look like beginning of 23. I think they really messed up with ARC but will see. Still holding and slowly accumulating still.

Good time to get that average down. The CHIPS act is also now moving forward and just needs Biden's signature now, saving Nancy Pelosi's portfolio just in the nick of time. Intel will be a huge beneficiary.

 

[JackSparr0w]

Hopefully Nvidia is next the greedy fucks need a humility lesson.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Hopefully Nvidia is next the greedy fucks need a humility lesson.

AMD as well. They were just as bad in the GPU market.

 

[silent head]

For the first time in history

 

[JackSparr0w]

AMD as well. They were just as bad in the GPU market.

They are indeed but I'm OK with them having some success and gaining some marketshare for now.

 

[Haint]

Weren't they recovering on the desktop CPU side? I mean if you don't care about power consumption at least

Every 12XXX is faster and (was) cheaper than the equivalent Ryzen, often competing or beating AMDs step up tier. Based on AMDs preview event, Ryzen 7000 averages +10-15% over the 5000s meaning it will only be slightly faster than the 12XXXs in most benches, with the old Intel parts actually winning some. The 13XXXs would have to be a total disaster to lose the desktop performance crown, and the Ryzen 3D varients (if AMD can rush them out in time, and if they can even match 13XXXs) will likely be supply constrained and at least $100 more expensive than Intels competing product.

 

[LordOfChaos]

For the first time in history

AMD deserves their time in the sun, tremendous amount of work for this turnaround, and it's going to be hard to ever fully shake them off.

Still, I will never count out chipzilla until they're dead and buried in the ground, they still have bigger cashflow (I'm making this up but think it's true) than AMD and Nvidia around and can still turn around, but that takes time. 5+ years from now I think it will have proven a remarkable buy today.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Every 12XXX is faster and (was) cheaper than the equivalent Ryzen, often competing or beating AMDs step up tier. Based on AMDs preview event, Ryzen 7000 averages +10-15% over the 5000s meaning it will only be slightly faster than the 12XXXs in most benches, with the old Intel parts actually winning some. The 13XXXs would have to be a total disaster to lose the desktop performance crown, and the Ryzen 3D varients (if they can even match 13XXXs) will likely be supply constrained and at least $100 more expensive than Intels competing product.

The Ryzen 7000 is what the Intel 12XXX CPUs will be competing against, not the 13XXX.
Not sure about pricing as I’m not presently in the market for a new CPU until socket AM5 hits, but Intel’s motherboards are generally more expensive then AMD models, and see less support.

 

[mckmas8808]

The layman in me is shouting, "79% drop? Buy buy buy!"

 

[Haint]

The Ryzen 7000 is what the Intel 12XXX CPUs will be competing against, not the 13XXX.
Not sure about pricing as I’m not presently in the market for a new CPU until socket AM5 hits, but Intel’s motherboards are generally more expensive then AMD models, and see less support.

Do huh? The 7000s and 13XXXs are both launching 1 or 2 months apart barring some catastrophic delay from either party.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Do huh? The 7000s and 13XXXs are both launching 1 or 2 months apart barring some catastrophic delay from either party.

Really? The 12XXX series just launched.

 

[Mister Wolf]

Always buy the dip.

 

[StateofMajora]

Today was a tough pill to swallow today, I have 1300 shares at avg 47. I do think they will turn around but they need to stop delaying there product. All I am hoping for is that zen 5 amd chips will get delayed too. However will be interesting to see what AMD has to say coming Tuesday. I was kind of hoping to upgrade from my 10900k to what every the new meteor lake chip would be called at the end of the year, but its starting to look like beginning of 23. I think they really messed up with ARC but will see. Still holding and slowly accumulating still.

My avg. Is the same. But I have more shares. It's rough right now.

All we have to do is wait. Intel will be the main competition to China fabrication.

Their desktop cpus are the best overall, aside from the v cache ryzen (for now). Raptor lake will win in productivity, esp. on the i5 13600k which is a 14 core 20 thread chip, meanwhile amd has a 12 thread r5. Everything i5 or lower is Intel's win, i7 will beat r7, i9 13900k will be really really close to 7950x, that will be most interesting.

Intel really needs a v cache implementation going forward.

Server side, again, I'm very disappointed in Intel, I don't have any idea what they're doing there.

 

[StateofMajora]

Intel spent almost a decade sleeping on it's laurels.
Then AMD, Apple, ARM, AWS, all started to catch up, or even surpass Intel.
On the manufacturing nodes, it's the same thing. From market leader, to being surpassed by TSMC and Samsung.

Well their future fab processes are looking cutting edge.

Just to chime in on the whole, doing jack shit after bulldozing (ahem) amd. I could understand keeping the core counts on desktop the same for years, because as we saw it was easy enough to bolt on moar cores with coffee lake, but to not significantly advance their architecture post sandy bridge (beyond clock speed) was one of the dumbest self inflicted wounds any tech company has ever had.

I would really like to hear some of those meetings where they thought it was a good idea to just do the bare minimum for over a half decade.

 

[Haint]

Really? The 12XXX series just launched.

Yeah they're both still officially launching later this year, with AMD expected to come out 1-2 months ahead of the Intel. There are already 13XXX samples in circulation and benchmarks.

 

[winjer]

Well their future fab processes are looking cutting edge.

Just to chime in on the whole, doing jack shit after bulldozing (ahem) amd. I could understand keeping the core counts on desktop the same for years, because as we saw it was easy enough to bolt on moar cores with coffee lake, but to not significantly advance their architecture post sandy bridge (beyond clock speed) was one of the dumbest self inflicted wounds any tech company has ever had.

I would really like to hear some of those meetings where they thought it was a good idea to just do the bare minimum for over a half decade.

These words from Steve Jobs about Xerox, are a good warning about what a tech company should not do.


Krzanich was not an engineer, in any tech field, so he didn't have the vision to lead a leading tech company, like Intel.
It wasn't just half a decade. After AMD's Bulldozer, Intel started to slack, with small improvements of 10-15% IPC, gen over gen.
Of course that after Skylake, there were no IPC improvements for 3 gens. And Rocket Lake even managed to go back in performance in several apps and games.

We can only hope that Gelsinger can change course in time. The CPU's are still competitive in performance.
But manufacturing is really behind the competition. Intel is still with their Intel 7 process node, but this is just an improved Intel 10. Not a full new node.
And it shows in their CPUs power consumption.

 

[Kev Kev]

“big, runny dump”

Really man?

 

[StateofMajora]

These words from Steve Jobs about Xerox, are a good warning about what a tech company should not do.


Krzanich was not an engineer, in any tech field, so he didn't have the vision to lead a leading tech company, like Intel.
It wasn't just half a decade. After AMD's Bulldozer, Intel started to slack, with small improvements of 10-15% IPC, gen over gen.
Of course that after Skylake, there were no IPC improvements for 3 gens. And Rocket Lake even managed to go back in performance in several apps and games.

We can only hope that Gelsinger can change course in time. The CPU's are still competitive in performance.
But manufacturing is really behind the competition. Intel is still with their Intel 7 process node, but this is just an improved Intel 10. Not a full new node.
And it shows in their CPUs power consumption.

IIRC ivy bridge was virtually nothing in IPC over sandy, probably less than zen to zen+.

Haswell I think was 5% IPC gain, then same for skylake over that...that is pathetic!

Most of the performance gain came from clock speed, cache.

 

[A.Romero]

These words from Steve Jobs about Xerox, are a good warning about what a tech company should not do.


Krzanich was not an engineer, in any tech field, so he didn't have the vision to lead a leading tech company, like Intel.
It wasn't just half a decade. After AMD's Bulldozer, Intel started to slack, with small improvements of 10-15% IPC, gen over gen.
Of course that after Skylake, there were no IPC improvements for 3 gens. And Rocket Lake even managed to go back in performance in several apps and games.

We can only hope that Gelsinger can change course in time. The CPU's are still competitive in performance.
But manufacturing is really behind the competition. Intel is still with their Intel 7 process node, but this is just an improved Intel 10. Not a full new node.
And it shows in their CPUs power consumption.

Pretty interesting (and also ironic that Apple is not following this advice IMO).

Intel is in deep shit but I think this industry works in cycles. Hunger will motivate them to innovate and continue. They are too big to fail and the American government is not gonna allow a company like Intel to just go broke or get sold. I'd dare to say they are even a matter of strategic importance.

 

[UltimaKilo]

Time for (new) new leadership.