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[BlazeDSM]

Im glad to see Blue Dragon doing well w/its first release. Lets hope it would continue to do well. Can't wait for it to come out in the US.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

And when Blue Dragon sells as well as Dead Rising the phrase will have no logical coherence and make no tautological sense?

"Meh. Animal House: Special Edition is only going to appeal to DVD fans."

Right.

"Man, that Gears of War. It really grew the fanbase. The 360 is surely going to coast past that 10 million sold by year end this year." *shakes head*

The hardware numbers don't lie. 360 games are selling like hotcakes in the states, but to the same userbase. That's exactly what happened to the Gamecube, what many on this board claim to be a "failed system".

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Anyway, will be interesting for sure to see if Blue Dragon flies in the US (no pun intended, of course).

Awww indend it! That was a good one.



I think, though, considering the success of Squeenix RPGs (how did the last DQ do on PS2, actually? That would be a good predictor), that there is a definite potential audience for Blue Dragon. People have always called Xbox the HaloBox, but I think it's proven that it can move all types of games on the system.

 

[P90]

Ouch about Zelda. Is that a mistake?

Hooray for Blue Dragon!

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

360 games are selling like hotcakes in the states, but to the same userbase. That's exactly what happened to the Gamecube, what many on this board claim to be a "failed system".

Well, that was my point anyway. I have no had the pleasure of following Gamecube software sales, so you may be right. I'm only basing my opinion on the same evidence: 360 games are selling like hotcakes in the states.

 

[Y2Kev]

It sold 400,000 copies with a gigantic userbase and an FFXII demo.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Ouch about Zelda. Is that a mistake?

Hooray for Blue Dragon!

No, it sold with a 35% attach rate. Nintendo has to ship more zelda and more Wii. The long term is what matters.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

It sold 400,000 copies with a gigantic userbase and an FFXII demo.

*gulp*

 

[hiryu]

You people say the stupidest things sometimes. "Zelda was never popular in Japan", "Metroid was never popular in Japan".

Zelda has had several of its games sell over millions of copies, and Metroid had one game sell over a million. I think any million seller qualifies as being popular. You know what a small percent of franchises constantly sell a million????

You realize these were on systems that had intalled bases of millions of systems. There are around 500,000 Wiis in Japan, how exactly is Zelda going to sell a million copies when there are only 500,000 systems that can play the game.

 

[Y2Kev]

*gulp*

I think BD is a fantastic looking game (haven't played), but if it plays like next gen DQ...then really, there is no question about how good of a game it is.

DQ style games are a tough sell in America though. I hope it does well. I don't know if it'll get to a million, but I hope it does well.

The closest indicator I think, Kiriku, (if that was you) is not Kameo but Enchant Arms. The games are not close in quality, but they are in target demographic.

 

[P90]

No, it sold with a 35% attach rate. Nintendo has to ship more zelda and more Wii. The long term is what matters.

Though early, this may point that Wii is getting the "non-gamer" in Japan, but in the US and EU "gamers" in general. Or that "non-gamers" in EU and US want Zelda.

 

[dark10x]

Do you really think Enchant Arm serves as a good barometer here? I can't help but think that the software drought may have had a positive influence on its sales (360 wasn't exactly brimming with software at the time of its release). I could be wrong, though.

 

[Odysseus]

I was gonna comment on some of these ridiculous posts, but they're pages back at this point. Wild thread.



For Odysseus.

That quote doesn't actually indicate much about the actual people purchasing DS, but thanks.

 

[P90]

It will be interesting to see if BD has legs and can give 360 a bigger userbase in Japan. If so, the PS3 might have a harder time than expected. From what I heard, you can't fit two big systems in one Japanese apartment so it will be Wii60 or PSWii.

 

[Y2Kev]

Do you really think Enchant Arm serves as a good barometer here? I can't help but think that the software drought may have had a positive influence on its sales (360 wasn't exactly brimming with software at the time of its release). I could be wrong, though.

It's the ONLY barometer! I can't think of any other Japanese developed, Japanese style JRPGs on the platform right now. It only sold like 100k I thought anyway.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

You realize these were on systems that had intalled bases of millions of systems. There are around 500,000 Wiis in Japan, how exactly is Zelda going to sell a million copies when there are only 500,000 systems that can play the game.

Yeah, that the main point. many thought that Zelda is bombed, but I think that with a userbase of half milion it is impossible to have a 1:1 attach rate. I'm confident that it will sell well in the long term, but of course it depends a lot from Nintendo and how many consoles will they bring to the market.

 

[Kiriku]

I think BD is a fantastic looking game (haven't played), but if it plays like next gen DQ...then really, there is no question about how good of a game it is.

DQ style games are a tough sell in America though. I hope it does well. I don't know if it'll get to a million, but I hope it does well.

The closest indicator I think, Kiriku, (if that was you) is not Kameo but Enchant Arms. The games are not close in quality, but they are in target demographic.

Yeah, that was me. I was reminded before this post as well though, and I agree. Enchanted Arms is a much more suitable example.

And just in general (not neccessarily aimed at you Kev)...don't get me wrong here, I also hope Blue Dragon is a success if it deserves it, I think it looks awesome though and sounds really cool from the impressions I've read. Will definitely pick it up.

 

[Deku]

140k games on 400k hardware on week1 is around 36%
40 (this is correct?) in week 2 of 100k is 40%

If this trend holds, we'll have 400-500k Zelda sold by year end,

 

[soul creator]

the general vibe I seem to get from some people

"MS needs to get more games that appeal to the non-halo crowd"

*360 gets Sims/AC/Bullfrog game hybrid, two JRPG's, freaking table tennis, some action adventure games, XBLA titles, BURGER KING GAMES, alongside the usual sports/racers/rpg's in their first year*

"lolz those games won't sell to 360 users, I don't know what they're thinking releasing those"

MS is in a weird chicken/egg predicament

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

the general vibe I seem to get from some people

"MS needs to get more games that appeal to the non-halo crowd"

*360 gets Sims/AC/Bullfrog game hybrid, two JRPG's, freaking table tennis, some action adventure games, XBLA titles, BURGER KING GAMES, alongside the usual sports/racers/rpg's in their first year*

"lolz those games won't sell to 360 users, I don't know what they're thinking releasing those"

MS is in a weird chicken/egg predicament

Bingo.

360 fans seem to be ravenous for hardcore sports/racer/fps sim style games and not much else.

This is the reason the XBOX didn't do much better than the Cube last generation, and unless Microsoft brokers a flood of different styled games exclusively for the 360 soon, this generation won't be much different, 6 million lead notwithstanding.

 

[Jokeropia]

Nintendo still has to turn things around in EU and JPN, and Sony has to prove it can hold steady. Whats your point.

Have you looked at any EU or JPN sales charts in the last year or so? It's also worth pointing out that Wii has managed record breaking launches in territories where GC bombed.

 

[Pureauthor]

the general vibe I seem to get from some people

"MS needs to get more games that appeal to the non-halo crowd"

*360 gets Sims/AC/Bullfrog game hybrid, two JRPG's, freaking table tennis, some action adventure games, XBLA titles, BURGER KING GAMES, alongside the usual sports/racers/rpg's in their first year*

"lolz those games won't sell to 360 users, I don't know what they're thinking releasing those"

MS is in a weird chicken/egg predicament

I think the problem is that it's not a sustained effort of any kind - more of a 'throw random crap out there once in a while' effort.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Have you looked at any EU or JPN sales charts in the last year or so? It's also worth pointing out that Wii has managed record breaking launches in territories where GC bombed.

To be fair, the burden on proof is on Nintendo to prove that they can CONTINUE with the huge sales momentum of their home console.

That said, the DS is proving to be a good barometer.

 

[soul creator]

I think the problem is that it's not a sustained effort of any kind - more of a 'throw random crap out there once in a while' effort.

that chicken/egg thing comes back...most of the "varied" titles for PS2 for example are a result of healthy 3rd party support. So if the 360 does get healthy 3rd party support, theoretically those games would come.

Or something. Although I am curious to see other consoles 1st year lineup (1 year counting from its first release, whether that's Japan or US), to see how it compares.

 

[PantherLotus]

So were those the real numbers for hw or what?

 

[Odysseus]

Bingo.

360 fans seem to be ravenous for hardcore sports/racer/fps sim style games and not much else.

This is the reason the XBOX didn't do much better than the Cube last generation, and unless Microsoft brokers a flood of different styled games exclusively for the 360 soon, this generation won't be much different, 6 million lead notwithstanding.

This post is so awesome. You gave him a "bingo," yet you seemingly missed the entire point of the post you were agreeing with and fell right in line with the type of posting the message was mocking. Unless you were only agreeing with that one mocking line. Meh, either way... good job!

 

[C4Lukins]

This post is so awesome. You gave him a "bingo," yet you seemingly missed the entire point of the post you were agreeing with and fell right in line with the type of posting the message was mocking. Unless you were only agreeing with that one mocking line. Meh, either way... good job!

It was very funny. I did not want to point it out to the poor guy.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

It was very funny. I did not want to point it out to the poor guy.

That's why we need Odysseus more and more each day.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

This post is so awesome. You gave him a "bingo," yet you seemingly missed the entire point of the post you were agreeing with and fell right in line with the type of posting the message was mocking. Unless you were only agreeing with that one mocking line. Meh, either way... good job!

You're a quick one.

Also, I like how you completely decided to sidestep what I was actually saying in my post.

 

[Scotch]

Bingo.

360 fans seem to be ravenous for hardcore sports/racer/fps sim style games and not much else.

This is the reason the XBOX didn't do much better than the Cube last generation, and unless Microsoft brokers a flood of different styled games exclusively for the 360 soon, this generation won't be much different, 6 million lead notwithstanding.

So what you're saying is, is that that those games won't sell to 360 users, and that MS needs to get more games that appeal to the non-halo crowd?

edit: beaten :lol

 

[Odysseus]

You're a quick one.

Also, I like how you completely decided to sidestep what I was actually saying in my post.

I believe you were saying "LOLZ I don't see effort, FPS box part deux confirmed LOLZ." Am I close?

 

[Pureauthor]

that chicken/egg thing comes back...most of the "varied" titles for PS2 for example are a result of healthy 3rd party support. So if the 360 does get healthy 3rd party support, theoretically those games would come.

I think that's part of the problem of how the console's image was projected from the get go. Just like Nintendo's consoles have always projected the image of being filled with bright, colourful happy games, games like Resident Evil making their way to Nintendo hasn't really changed that image.

 

[Jokeropia]

To be fair, the burden on proof is on Nintendo to prove that they can CONTINUE with the huge sales momentum of their home console.

Sure, but "continue" is not the same as "turn things around".

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I believe you were saying "LOLZ I don't see effort, FPS box part deux confirmed LOLZ." Am I close?

What I don't see the effort in is claiming that Blue Dragon is the title that will break open the 360 fanbase when it is one title. It will sell to the 360 hardcore crowd in the US, but won't bring in new users.

"Lol Gears of HALO 3 Box" Right now, yeah, it is. But Microsoft has obviously noticed this and is trying to grow the fanbase.

 

[Arsenal]

The 360 is not tracking that much higher than the XBox 1 in North America. The system is a failure in Europe and Japan to date. Microsoft has not been able to sell anything beyond their usual style/demographic software wise. Gears of War did not cause a large hardware boost. The 360 got bailed out in November by hardware shortages ... the PS2 didn't need this to dominate the GC/XBox in Nov. 2001.

Of course it's just not as popular to point this out. But you know if you want to dish it out, fine. Don't come crying when you have to be on recieving end. Now you know what it feels like to be on the other side of that street. Kudos.

Isn't 2006 a banner year for the 360 in the UK? I thought sales charts I have seen have the 360 topping the Xbox's best year in the region. I'm aware that UK != Europe and that it is struggling in some countries, but I would hardly classify that as a failure in comparison to the original. Worldwide, MS is breaking into a lot more markets than it was before and while that is not going to set the sales on fire this year, it will pay dividends in the long term. With Nintendo also doing better in the PAL markets, there is simply no way that Sony will be able to duplicate the PS2's success this gen. Case in point, I think it may be clear by the end of 2007 that the PS3 will forever be in 3rd place in the UK even while it dominates other areas of Europe like say Spain.

Of course, the 360 is no PS2 by any stretch and never will be. There is a very good chance that no console establishes a worldwide marketshare over 50% this gen, but that certainly doesn't mean they should be considered "failures".

 

[GhaleonEB]

Right.

"Man, that Gears of War. It really grew the fanbase. The 360 is surely going to coast past that 10 million sold by year end this year." *shakes head*

The hardware numbers don't lie. 360 games are selling like hotcakes in the states, but to the same userbase. That's exactly what happened to the Gamecube, what many on this board claim to be a "failed system".

You make it sound as if the impact from Gears has come and gone. Second, the 10m is a shipped target; of they they're on track to sell over 8 million, which is a pretty moderate shipped-sold spread.

 

[Nameless]

The damage control going on in this thread is astounding.

 

[GhaleonEB]

What I don't see the effort in is claiming that Blue Dragon is the title that will break open the 360 fanbase when it is one title. It will sell to the 360 hardcore crowd in the US, but won't bring in new users.

"Lol Gears of HALO 3 Box" Right now, yeah, it is. But Microsoft has obviously noticed this and is trying to grow the fanbase.

You grow the fanbase one game at a time. I'd say Blue Dragon has a better chance at expanding beyond the current XBox Halo/Gears base than any other title in the pipe over the next six months or so.

Certainly the Q1/2 lineup of Forza 2, Mass Effect, Lost Planet, Biohazard, etc. caters mostly to the 360's existing base. However, what it will do is keep pulling in XBox owners who have yet to make the switch, which at this point is just as important.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

You make it sound as if the impact from Gears has come and gone. Second, the 10m is a shipped target; of they they're on track to sell over 8 million, which is a pretty moderate shipped-sold spread.

In my opinion, as far as selling more 360's, it has come and gone. I know personally Gears of War is one of the reasons I will one day own a 360, however there's not much outside of Gears that really interests me enough to take the 500 (CAD) plunge.

Gears will have legs in NA, however I sincerely doubt it will blow the doors open as far as 360 adoption is concerned.

Right now the only title slated to do that on the 360 is Halo 3.

 

[soul creator]

In my opinion, as far as selling more 360's, it has come and gone. I know personally Gears of War is one of the reasons I will one day own a 360, however there's not much outside of Gears that really interests me enough to take the 500 (CAD) plunge.

Gears will have legs in NA, however I sincerely doubt it will blow the doors open as far as 360 adoption is concerned.

Right now the only title slated to do that on the 360 is Halo 3.

a price drop is more likely to do that.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

You grow the fanbase one game at a time. I'd say Blue Dragon has a better chance at expanding beyond the current XBox Halo/Gears base than any other title in the pipe over the next six months or so.

Certainly the Q1/2 lineup of Forza 2, Mass Effect, Lost Planet, Biohazard, etc. caters mostly to the 360's existing base. However, what it will do is keep pulling in XBox owners who have yet to make the switch, which at this point is just as important.

Oh I agree.

I'm just sick of threads claiming "This one title will save X system!" The PS2, PS1, SNES etc were just as successful for the peripheral 'B' grade and lower titles as they were for the blockbusters.

 

[Parl]

Who was in this thread, stealing the hardware numberz? Wants!

 

[Jonsoncao]

Is hardware figure available now?

 

[lachesis]

I don't know - I thought Zelda was more "mania" type of game when compared to Mario in Japan. And given the amount of available Wii at launch and all - I think that number isn't too shaby. One thing for sure though - that it will have some legs to carry on for at least a month or so, if I'm not mistaken.

And Hooray for RGG2. It really is a GOTY worthy game, and I'm loving every minute of it.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Oh I agree.

I'm just sick of threads claiming "This one title will save X system!" The PS2, PS1, SNES etc were just as successful for the peripheral 'B' grade and lower titles as they were for the blockbusters.

I agree about that, it's definiately not about a single title, in any market for any system. It's the portfolio, and the value proposition.

 

[Tenacious-V]

In my opinion, as far as selling more 360's (impact from Gears), it has come and gone. I know personally Gears of War is one of the reasons I will one day own a 360, however there's not much outside of Gears that really interests me enough to take the 500 (CAD) plunge.

Gears will have legs in NA, however I sincerely doubt it will blow the doors open as far as 360 adoption is concerned.

Right now the only title slated to do that on the 360 is Halo 3.

You're really the king of contradictions aren't you?

 

[Cathcart]

If this trend holds, we'll have 400-500k Zelda sold by year end

Great. That'll do wonders for our profits.

 

[GDJustin]

The Wii is going to be around for a long, long time in Japan. You don't think a decent number of new Wii owners in 2009 will want to buy Zelda?

The game will EASILY cross 1M in Japan in its lifetime. Don't forget that Super Smash Bros. still sold 10-20K copies per month, every single month, here in the the US. Even up to this year.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It's a slow month for the entire industry, not just Nintendo. Got any data that shows they're somehow more impacted from the come-down off the holidays? :lol

December '01 to January '02
PS2: -81.6%
Xbox: -81.6%
GCN: -89.5%
GBA: -90.0%

December '02 to January '03
PS2: -83.2%
Xbox: -84.2%
GCN: -86.3%
GBA: -87.8%

December '03 to January '04
PS2: -82.9%
Xbox: -82.4%
GCN: -88.7%
GBA: -87.0%

December '04 to January '05
PS2: -50.5%
Xbox: -76.6%
GCN: -85.9%
GBA: -85.8%
DS: -79.6%

December '05 to January '06
PS2: -81.9%
PS2: -84.0%
Xbox: -78.6%
X360: -11.5%
GCN: -89.1%
GBA: -85.8%
DS: -85.2%


Wow. I thought there was some truth to the generalization, but I didn't realize it would be so consistent. In all five of those years, no system ever dropped more from December than any of Nintendo's. Now that I've done that, though, how the hell did I end up doing an NPD calculation in a Media Create thread?

Now to make the day worthwhile I've just got to find someone here I disagree with, so that we can decide whose incorrectness should cause them to temporarily stop visiting a gaming forum, to prove who has the larger virtual penis.

 

[LanceStern]

Even though it's impossible to have a 1:1 ratio, and yea it sounds kind of arrogant, but why the freak aren't people buying Zelda?

What is stopping them from getting it? 35,000 second week is pathetic when you're looking at how Wii Sports and Wii Play beat it out in the first AND second week by a substantial amount. Put the sports down and buy Zelda! Or buy Zelda WITH THEM.

Christ it makes me furious