It's definately way to early say the 360 can carve out a niche, but there are positive signs. I'd said when the sales dropped from 35k to 17k the week after Blue Dragon that it was toast, but then it held steady the three weeks after. Not great, but the hardware has NEVER sold steady like that yet. Not sure what to make of it. The difference with the Cube is that the 360 has a number of major titles lined up for it this year, while the Cube was at the end of its life cycle. I was absolutely writing the 360 off in Japan as of the middle of last year - not to mention in September when it dropped below a thousand units one week. If you'd told me it would do over 100k in December I'd have told you that you were on crack. I was expecting 100k more in its lifetime then. Janaury will be interesting.JoshuaJSlone said:
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Media Create Sales: 1/1 - 1/7
- Thread starter Raw64life
- Start date
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Overall sales are quite big this week, without the crazy DS shortage drop of last year. Total hardware sales are 806K. Last year it took until week 4 to pass that and reach 861K. Though most of that improvement is due to large DS and Wii numbers, all manufacturers did better than last year.
If Wii stops selling and PS3 continues at its current rate, it will catch up to Wii on March 6 of this year.
I'll bite.
Bernie (Microsoft/Xbox) wants to neutralize the threat of two underlings (less-monetarily-endowed Nintendo and Sony) by buying them off. He invites them to his island retreat (Japan), but ends up dead there before they even arrive. Richard (Sony) wants to wipe his hands of the situation, but Larry (Nintendo) wants to keep the corpse around to enjoy a few days of partying (make GameCube sales seem more impressive by comparison).
In the sequel, Bernie (X360) is dead from the beginning, but can become animated if you play the right type of music (Uematsu).
If Wii stops selling and PS3 continues at its current rate, it will catch up to Wii on March 6 of this year.
2600 said:
I'll bite.Bernie (Microsoft/Xbox) wants to neutralize the threat of two underlings (less-monetarily-endowed Nintendo and Sony) by buying them off. He invites them to his island retreat (Japan), but ends up dead there before they even arrive. Richard (Sony) wants to wipe his hands of the situation, but Larry (Nintendo) wants to keep the corpse around to enjoy a few days of partying (make GameCube sales seem more impressive by comparison).
In the sequel, Bernie (X360) is dead from the beginning, but can become animated if you play the right type of music (Uematsu).
All good points.GhaleonEB said:
jeremy1456
Junior Member
GhaleonEB said:
I have to disagree with the bolded statement. The cube had more content the Japanese tend to favor in it's first 12 months than the 360 has announced, at all.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Yes, but we're comparing X360 2007 to GCN 2006, which was quite weak. 2001/2002 software isn't very relevant at pushing hardware sales at that point.jeremy1456 said:
GreenNight
Member
Did NDS Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon break 1mil yet?
JoshuaJSlone said:
Oh I agree it's not. And I even stated that I don't believe it will maintain these numbers. It just baffled me that someone would think that if a console sells 100k units a month on average, would be considered dead in Japan, the worlds third largest market, when consoles that are very much considered alive don't sell much more than that a month in the US on average, which is the world's largest market.
I think the DS's incredible sales are skewing everyone's views of what dead, bad, decent, good, great and amazing sales are. DS is somewhere above amazing.
ghostlyjoe
Member
Third parties failed. They backed the wrong horse, they didn't provide enough high-quality software and they're being left behind. With Nintendo dominating in both hardware and software, will third parties use that as an excuse to continue to withhold major support and shift focus to the west, or will they follow Square Enix and make DS a primary development platform? It should have already happened. The argument that you can't compete with Nintendo is ridiculous, as DQM proves. Third parties simply aren't competing because they're not trying.
I mean, considering the buildup to this, with DS dominating for more than a year, where are the big third-party titles? Where's Capcom? Where's Konami? Why are they leaving money on the table? Aren't investors pressuring these companies to jump on this bandwagon?
Damn. Heads are gonna be rolling soon if third parties don't get their crap together.
I mean, considering the buildup to this, with DS dominating for more than a year, where are the big third-party titles? Where's Capcom? Where's Konami? Why are they leaving money on the table? Aren't investors pressuring these companies to jump on this bandwagon?
Damn. Heads are gonna be rolling soon if third parties don't get their crap together.
soundwave05
Member
No chance in hell the 360 sells 100k/month every month. Every console sells 2x as much during December at least.
It'll plummet back down to 20-30k/month or less in January/Feburary/March. Smash Bros. Melee is far, far, far, far bigger than Blue Dragon and it only gave the GCN a boost through the holidays, after that the GCN settled down again sales wise. 1 game + a holiday boost means nothing in the overall scheme of things if you don't have a regular release list of *big* titles. Not just one Blue Dragon per year surrounded by a bunch of lesser releases.
Those Wii numbers are solid, hopefully Nintendo can keep the systems coming out in Japan at a steady clip. They should be able to build a comfy 2+ million lead over the PS3 soon.
It'll plummet back down to 20-30k/month or less in January/Feburary/March. Smash Bros. Melee is far, far, far, far bigger than Blue Dragon and it only gave the GCN a boost through the holidays, after that the GCN settled down again sales wise. 1 game + a holiday boost means nothing in the overall scheme of things if you don't have a regular release list of *big* titles. Not just one Blue Dragon per year surrounded by a bunch of lesser releases.
Those Wii numbers are solid, hopefully Nintendo can keep the systems coming out in Japan at a steady clip. They should be able to build a comfy 2+ million lead over the PS3 soon.
From PantherLotus since he's banned.
This Week Sales:
Sales History:
(Fuzzy's comment: Chew Pac-Chart, chew! :lol
Since 11/27/07 - 6 total weeks:
360 - 2nd highest week. It is not trending away from the norm. (avg. week = 18,154)
Wii - 3rd highest week. A trend is beginning to appear. (avg. week = 185,829)
PS3 - 3rd highest week. Definitely following the trend. (avg. week = 61,850)
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
360 remaining consistent and following the 6 week average. An exponential trend line shows that lifetime sales will top out at 600,000. The PS3 has established a clear pattern of 70-75k for the last 4 weeks with available hardware. At this point consistency is good enough to keep it afloat until heavy hitters come later in the year. Trend lines show very healthy growth. The Wii, while performing erratically, is still starting to establish a trend, and one higher than expected. The big weeks always make the market say *WOW* because it makes the other big weeks shine as well. At this point the Wii has any many big weeks (195k or more) as it does average weeks (approx. 95k), with 3 each. Clearly this is entirely based upon availability, but what is not known is whether the lack of availability is contributing to demand or prolonging the initial sell-through. Combining this with software numbers makes one think otherwise and that this hardware has caught fire.
Expectations for 01/08-01/14
360 - 18k
Wii - 150k
PS3 - 71k
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share History:
This Week Sales:
Sales History:
(Fuzzy's comment: Chew Pac-Chart, chew! :lol
Since 11/27/07 - 6 total weeks:
360 - 2nd highest week. It is not trending away from the norm. (avg. week = 18,154)
Wii - 3rd highest week. A trend is beginning to appear. (avg. week = 185,829)
PS3 - 3rd highest week. Definitely following the trend. (avg. week = 61,850)
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
360 remaining consistent and following the 6 week average. An exponential trend line shows that lifetime sales will top out at 600,000. The PS3 has established a clear pattern of 70-75k for the last 4 weeks with available hardware. At this point consistency is good enough to keep it afloat until heavy hitters come later in the year. Trend lines show very healthy growth. The Wii, while performing erratically, is still starting to establish a trend, and one higher than expected. The big weeks always make the market say *WOW* because it makes the other big weeks shine as well. At this point the Wii has any many big weeks (195k or more) as it does average weeks (approx. 95k), with 3 each. Clearly this is entirely based upon availability, but what is not known is whether the lack of availability is contributing to demand or prolonging the initial sell-through. Combining this with software numbers makes one think otherwise and that this hardware has caught fire.
Expectations for 01/08-01/14
360 - 18k
Wii - 150k
PS3 - 71k
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share History:
Code:
Date 360 Wii PS3
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%DeaconKnowledge
Member
Fuzzy said:
Funny, the PS3 is eating only into the 360's marketshare.
I don't think anyone is predicting that. I think the best the 360 could do is average ~10k/week next year with the lineup it has. Note I said average - I'm including spikes from major releases, holidays and the low periods as well. But if it does that, then it's well past what the Xbox did in its entire lifetime there. If it does that for a couple of years, it's a small niche. I'm not predicting it will happen, just calibrating what I think is the upper limit of what the system could do there.soundwave05 said:
A Link to the Past
Banned
GreenNight said:
In Japan? No.
soundwave05 said:
I agree with you there......although.....Hell is currently freezing so for chances, you may want to try heaven.
Just 2 months ago if anyone was to say the 360 will sell 18k in the first week of January, the PS3 will sell poorly world wide and the Wii will destroy the PS3 in Japan......I think most people would have said the same thing...no chance in hell.
If anything, sales, reality and this generation seems to be doing everything in spite of general opinion on GAF. Want to know the best method of estimating what's going to happen in 6 months? Find out GAF's majority take on things currently, and guess the opposite.
soundwave05
Member
jimbo said:I agree with you there......although.....Hell is currently freezing so for chances, you may want to try heaven.
Just 2 months ago if anyone was to say the 360 will sell 18k in the first week of January, the PS3 will sell poorly world wide and the Wii will destroy the PS3 in Japan......I think most people would have said the same thing...no chance in hell.
If anything, sales, reality and this generation seems to be doing everything in spite of general opinion on GAF. Want to know the best method of estimating what's going to happen in 6 months? Find out GAF's majority take on things currently, and guess the opposite.
LOL, the 360 could only dream to have a week like the PS3 does. PS3 and Wii's share of the overall market will increase in 2007, the 360's in the one that will shrink.
Nintendo and Sony are still selling pretty much most if not all (in Nintendo's case) of what they ship. 18k is only impressive for one of the biggest shopping weeks in Japan because the XBox as a brand is so pathetic overall in Japan that it's an improvement.
For any other relevant platform 18k in early January would be seen as a disaster. If Rosie O' Donnel lost 10 pounds ... it would be an improvement. It doesn't mean she's even remotely attractive though.
ghostlyjoe said:
Very well said, actually. A whole bunch of third party publishers really missed the boat on this one, despite the long lead time they had where this coming phase of market domination was completely evident. It really is like Square Enix was the only one that noticed that and took it very seriously... and they're being continually rewarded by that.
Sega of Japan wised up a bit, though, too. They aren't making it as primary a focus as Square Enix, but they're still giving pretty solid support. Shiren and Love & Berry have both done very well... it'll be interesting to see how Sangokushi Taisen does. Though, you know, with Shiren's success and Square Enix's contual success, Sega really should recognize that hey, there's an RPG market here and they're missing another opportunity by not taking advantage of that more seriously... where's Shining Force, or Phantasy Star, or Skies of Arcadia, or Dragon Force?
For the new year...
I'm gonna guess that the DSL will stabilize at around 100k again, while the Wii will probably post weekly sales of about 40k-50k. The PSP will go down to 20k levels, the PS2 will go below those, and the PS3 will stay around 50k as long as Japan keeps getting systems.
The 360 is going to go back down to 5k at the most unless Blue Dragon did more than people thought.
Of course, the sales for last week are going to be quite huge. I'm talking about February/March.
I'm gonna guess that the DSL will stabilize at around 100k again, while the Wii will probably post weekly sales of about 40k-50k. The PSP will go down to 20k levels, the PS2 will go below those, and the PS3 will stay around 50k as long as Japan keeps getting systems.
The 360 is going to go back down to 5k at the most unless Blue Dragon did more than people thought.
Of course, the sales for last week are going to be quite huge. I'm talking about February/March.
Barf_the_Mog
powerless or are they? o_O
AniHawk said:
You're predicting that the PS3 will sell at a higher rate in 2007 (per week)? *Edit* than the Wii.
soundwave05
Member
What does the PS3 even have software wise for the next few months in Japan? Virtua Fighter 5 ... and ... ?
Wii Sports and Wii Play will sell for a long, long time, I'll tell you that much. To me it seems an awful lot like the DS-PSP situation all over again. It'll be interesting to see when Wii Music and Wii Fitness hit Japan.
Wii Sports and Wii Play will sell for a long, long time, I'll tell you that much. To me it seems an awful lot like the DS-PSP situation all over again. It'll be interesting to see when Wii Music and Wii Fitness hit Japan.
ghostlyjoe
Member
soundwave05 said:
I agree -- on the surface. Remember, though, that the PSP looked like the clear winner at first. It took time for the DS to really build momentum, even in Japan. The Wii storming out of the gates doesn't mean things can't change again.
I like Nintendo's strategy. I like Nintendo's games. I like the Wii. But, even if the evil little fanboy inside me wants me to, I can't declare Nintendo the winner today and still consider myself a rational man.
soundwave05
Member
If any system's have supply problems in Japan it will be the Wii and DS, not PS3 IMO.
The reality of that price point is going to hit them hard in every market now that the holiday rush is over. Their release list doesn't really help either.
I think like the DS, Iwata can see the blood in the water and knows this is their chance in Japan. Look for them to turn it up a notch or two in Japan especailly around spring time with new colors for the Wii and that all-important second wave of games. This is precisely what Nintendo has waited for since 1996 in Japan.
Japan is Nintendo's to take, it's just a question of how bad they want it.
The reality of that price point is going to hit them hard in every market now that the holiday rush is over. Their release list doesn't really help either.
I think like the DS, Iwata can see the blood in the water and knows this is their chance in Japan. Look for them to turn it up a notch or two in Japan especailly around spring time with new colors for the Wii and that all-important second wave of games. This is precisely what Nintendo has waited for since 1996 in Japan.
Japan is Nintendo's to take, it's just a question of how bad they want it.
ghostlyjoe
Member
soundwave05 said:
Uh oh! Red ocean alert! Time to jump ship!
soundwave05
Member
AniHawk said:
:lol Yup. Yamauchi is really Darth Sidious as well.
New colors + Wii Fitness + Wii Music + Super Paper Mario + Fire Emblem in Japan ... make it happen, Nintendo, and make it happen soon.
Joe Molotov
Member
AniHawk said:
Sun Tzu's "The Art of War 2: War Harder" will have a whole chapter devoted to this.
soundwave05
Member
Oh yeah, I'm sure Nintendo would dearly love to have DQ Swords sometime before June. I wonder how far along that one is.
ghostlyjoe
Member
Joe Molotov said:
So THAT's what Wesley Snipes was filming in Africa.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Err, its 2006 average was 57K. 50K is only higher than a few of the REALLY supply-constrained weeks.Barf_the_Mog said:
At first glance I'd say AniHawk's guesses seem pretty good... until I consider the totals. DS doing as good or better than last year, PS2 and PSP only slightly down, and Wii/PS3 adding 90K weekly in his estimation... it just feels like something must give. Perhaps the continued market expansion will allow for it, and 2007 will become by far the biggest hardware sales year ever just as 2006 did before it, but I'm skeptical.
I was skeptical about the DSL continuing its 100K numbers throughout last year, too, though, so take my pessimism with a grain of salt.
Gundam Musou is March or April I think?soundwave05 said:
D
Deleted member 13414
Unconfirmed Member
Well Gears comes out in Japan on the 18 i think the 360 will move around 20k+ this week.
Scalemail Ted
Member
ethelred said:
isnt that a french shooting game
JoshuaJSlone
Member
A bit of a late reply, but I guess I read over this part.
Easy. If DS does as well this year as last year, it would be past 22 million, while PS2 only hit 20 million recently and has slowed down a lot. With increased supply, this year could be even bigger for DS. For a bit of a tougher goal, I wonder whether it can pass PS2 by the time Dragon Quest IX releases.jj984jj said:
D
Deleted member 13414
Unconfirmed Member
Well Gears has been at number 1 for days now on amazon japan. Also next week idolmasters comes out. I know it doesn't mean anything but its something.
D.Lo
Member
QFT.ghostlyjoe said:
That's some pretty optimistic Sony numbers you have there.AniHawk said:
I don't think the Wii is a guaranteed success yet, but I certainly think Sony will do worse then that. My prediction is that at least one of the PS3 or PSP will be total bomba. DS is the #1 platform, by far, it's a fight for second place, and the Wii is best positioned for that. How can Sony survive trying to prop up number #3 and #4 at the same time? Something will have to give.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
I'm expecting Wii to trend just like the DS.
We're going to see a little bit of a dip while Nintendo sorts out their supply problems and dry spell and then bang...80k per week in Japan average until September, when the Wii really takes off.
We're going to see a little bit of a dip while Nintendo sorts out their supply problems and dry spell and then bang...80k per week in Japan average until September, when the Wii really takes off.
AniHawk said:
Actually, I remember Halo doing pretty good for the Xbox in Japan, and it's a fps. Wasn't it like the second best selling franchise on Xbox in Japan?
Unfortunatelly GOW supposedly got a Z rating, so even if it did have a chance of selling over there, I figure that's going to hurt it pretty badly.