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[Grampa Simpson]

Wiitard
Banned

GAF has lost another great poster.

It will be extra ironic if Sony does drop support for the PS3 next year.

edit: word choice.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Wow.

The mods are swift!

 

[Gekkonidae]

Not that I'm agreeing with Wiitard, but I would like to point out that a year, or a year and a half ago, predicting sales as they exist today would have been a bannable offence.

So, you know, wierd sh*t can happen.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Wow.

The mods are swift!

And silent. Like Ninja. iapetus maybe?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Yeah, isn't he just.

I'm gonna go more nuts and talk about Harvest Moon Wii sales in a Media Create thread.

First week sales:

(Snipped sales figures)

Wii version at 15k, first day. That really so bad?

Thanks for that, as it helps give context to the HM Wii sales. I'd expect it's first week numbers to be at least as high as HM: A Wonderful Life which is quite a nice turnaround given the declining sales of the series on the 'Cube. As there seems to have been quite an effort put into the game, it would be nice to see it exceed AWL over lifetime as well - any idea what total sales on that title were?

 

[Parl]

Thanks a lot for finding those numbers. Puts the 15K first day nicely into perspective.

The game should finish off at over 100k if it trends anything like the first DS one did, which had good legs for an early, third-party DS game.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I think Sony fully intends to eek out a living at $400 for the better part of this generation, at least through 2009. At that price point I think they could easily sell as well as MS did their first year, which would put them well on pace for 25 mil+ by the end of the generation. It's absurd to think that component costs for Blu Ray, Cell, won't fall over that time, and the addition of the 65nm processors won't hurt either.

Their first party studios won't be going anywhere - they are the biggest moneymakers on the platform, they learned that model from Nintendo. Annual regurgitations of Singstar and the like to a userbase of 10 million plus is good start to making ends meet.

8-10 million, given holiday bumps, Gundabumps, and a probable price drop/sales spike is not out of the question for next Spring (10 million is probably the max they could realistically achieve by then). Yes, it would be much, much worse for the PS4 if Sony were to drop their new console 2 years after its launch, it would be Dreamcast all over again. The PS3 isn't going anywhere, at least until 2010.

I agree with the first part, but there is no ****ing way PS3 will hit 10 million by next Spring.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I agree with the first part, but there is no ****ing way PS3 will hit 10 million by next Spring.

It's at, what, 3.3 million now, isn't it? 10 million by Spring - say April - means it has to sell 6.7 million worldwide in 9 months, which would be something like 740,000 per month.

Considering it is doing less than 40,000 a month in Japan and less than 100,000 a month in the US, Europe would really have to live to its GAF reputation as SonyLand to reach that figure!

Even with a very positive outlook - assume double the current monthly figures sustained until 2008 - you're still talking about maybe 4-500,000 per month which would put it around 7-8 million by Spring 2008.

10 million certainly looks completely out of the question.

(EDITED to correct my incorrect Japanese figures)

 

[Innotech]

It's at, what, 3.3 million now, isn't it? 10 million by Spring - say April - means it has to sell 6.7 million worldwide in 9 months, which would be something like 740,000 per month.

Considering it is doing less than 20,000 a month in Japan and less than 100,000 a month in the US, Europe would really have to live to its GAF reputation as SonyLand to reach that figure!

Even with a very positive outlook - assume double the current monthly figures sustained until 2008 - you're still talking about maybe 4-500,000 per month which would put it around 7-8 million by Spring 2008.

10 million certainly looks completely out of the question.

Its really amazing to see sales predictions like that and know its about a sony PLAYSTATION console. this is just bizarro world now.

 

[nli10]

It's at, what, 3.3 million now, isn't it? 10 million by Spring - say April - means it has to sell 6.7 million worldwide in 9 months, which would be something like 740,000 per month.

Considering it is doing less than 20,000 a month in Japan and less than 100,000 a month in the US, Europe would really have to live to its GAF reputation as SonyLand to reach that figure!

Even with a very positive outlook - assume double the current monthly figures sustained until 2008 - you're still talking about maybe 4-500,000 per month which would put it around 7-8 million by Spring 2008.

10 million certainly looks completely out of the question.

PS3 is currently averaging about 30.769k a week in Europe based on the 3 weeks to 800k then 9.5 weeks to 1 million calculations based on press releases. Guessing this is gradually declining as no exclusive games have come out in the UK for around 1 month.

Its really amazing to see sales predictions like that and know its about a sony PLAYSTATION console. this is just bizarro world now.

Actually these are the kind of sales I originally expected

Spoiler

back before the Playstation 1 launched ... :lol

 

[Eteric Rice]

Its really amazing to see sales predictions like that and know its about a sony PLAYSTATION console. this is just bizarro world now.

Its really amazing to see sales predictions like that and know its about a NINTENDO console. this is just bizarro world now.

Deja-vu.

 

[Parl]

It's at, what, 3.3 million now, isn't it? 10 million by Spring - say April - means it has to sell 6.7 million worldwide in 9 months, which would be something like 740,000 per month.

Considering it is doing less than 20,000 a month in Japan and less than 100,000 a month in the US, Europe would really have to live to its GAF reputation as SonyLand to reach that figure!

Even with a very positive outlook - assume double the current monthly figures sustained until 2008 - you're still talking about maybe 4-500,000 per month which would put it around 7-8 million by Spring 2008.

10 million certainly looks completely out of the question.

A fairer view would be to adjust for Nov and Dec by counting Nov as 2 months and Dec as 4 months. Also, if we say by the end of April, that's 11 months from the end of May. Add on the 4 extra effective months for Nov/Dec and that's 15 months.

6.7 million in 15 months is just 445k per typical month, then 890k in Nov and 1.78M in Dec. But, we know it does nothing like that. Or, an average of 610k per month.

Assuming Sony high-balled their 1 million in "Other" figure, that'd put it at about 950,000, or about 100k per month, which would obviously be front-heavy, so it could be at about 82k a month now in Other.

My guess is that it's at about 200k per month (4 weeks and a few days) now. If a price drop comes in about 4 months, and the big titles push sales further, the average rate of sale for PS3 would need to nearly triple overall after the price drop, which would also be greatly front-heavy (except for Nov/Dec), so the price drop would need to have a HUGE effect and the games would require a HUGE effect for PS3 to reach 10 million by the end of April 2008.

 

[Xavien]

Lol, forever? What did he do to warrent a ban forever? :lol

He had a meltdown, during a sales discussion, then got banned and i don't think the mods bothered to unban him (since he was a Junior at the time).

He was a good guy though, he knew quite a lot about the GCN's graphical capabilities, however he did not know enough about sales to save him from a ban in a sales-age thread though

 

[Eteric Rice]

He had a meltdown, during a sales discussion, then got banned and i don't think the mods bothered to unban him (since he was a Junior at the time).

He was a good guy though, he knew quite a lot about the GCN's graphical capabilities, however he did not know enough about sales to save him from a ban in a sales-age thread though

I see.

Well I hope they un-ban him, he seemed like a nice guy. Though hopefully he stays out of sales threads next time.

It's not like there's anything to argue about in the sales threads anyway. :|

 

[felipeko]

misread, sry :<

 

[Parl]

misread, sry :<

I'd made a mistake anyway, I only added 3 effective months rather than 4. I've changed some of the wording to make it clearer.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I wanna see his meltdown.

What's his actual username?

 

[HyperionX]

Actually I do have a problem with people proclaiming that the PS3 loses $240 per unit like it was gospel. The problem is that it came from an iSupply report, not from Sony, so it is not a guaranteed figure. In fact, when the PS2 came out, a third party report concluded that they must have been losing $188 per unit, which apparently was way off the mark. Wouldn't surprise me if a similar case is true this time as well. So the real question is, how much of Sony's $2 billion loss is front loaded fixed cost, and how much is marginal costs? We do know that Sony spent something like $400 million on R&D on the Cell and about $1.5 billion for a fab that can make it, so the fixed costs aspect is huge, and could potential be the primary source of cost.

The other is problem I have is the belief that the initial losses are going to stay forever. It's almost a certain bet that they are not losing as much now as during launch, purely on cost reductions on the blue-violet diodes and ever decreasing RAM prices. Further cost reductions will be found with the shrink to a 65nm process, which they seem to be ahead of MS on this. I wouldn't be surprised if they announced a price cut shortly and still maintain profitability estimate goals.

 

[Evlar]

Actually I do have a problem with people proclaiming that the PS3 loses $240 per unit like it was gospel. The problem is that it came from an iSupply report, not from Sony, so it is not a guaranteed figure. In fact, when the PS2 came out, a third party report concluded that they must have been losing $188 per unit, which apparently was way off the mark. Wouldn't surprise me if a similar case is true this time as well. So the real question is, how much of Sony's $2 billion loss is front loaded fixed cost, and how much is marginal costs? We do know that Sony spent something like $400 million on R&D on the Cell and about $1.5 billion for a fab that can make it, so the fixed costs aspect is huge, and could potential be the primary source of cost.

The other is problem I have is the belief that the initial losses are going to stay forever. It's almost a certain bet that they are not losing as much now as during launch, purely on cost reductions on the blue-violet diodes and ever decreasing RAM prices. Further cost reductions will be found with the shrink to a 65nm process, which they seem to be ahead of MS on this. I wouldn't be surprised if they announced a price cut shortly and still maintain profitability estimate goals.

We honestly don't know all that much about how much the thing costs to build today. And we won't know much about these costs through the year until Sony's next financial report.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

A fairer view would be to adjust for Nov and Dec by counting Nov as 2 months and Dec as 4 months. Also, if we say by the end of April, that's 11 months from the end of May. Add on the 4 extra effective months for Nov/Dec and that's 15 months.

6.7 million in 15 months is just 445k per typical month, then 890k in Nov and 1.78M in Dec. But, we know it does nothing like that. Or, an average of 610k per month.

Assuming Sony high-balled their 1 million in "Other" figure, that'd put it at about 950,000, or about 100k per month, which would obviously be front-heavy, so it could be at about 82k a month now in Other.

My guess is that it's at about 200k per month (4 weeks and a few days) now. If a price drop comes in about 4 months, and the big titles push sales further, the average rate of sale for PS3 would need to nearly triple overall after the price drop, which would also be greatly front-heavy (except for Nov/Dec), so the price drop would need to have a HUGE effect and the games would require a HUGE effect for PS3 to reach 10 million by the end of April 2008.

And even if by some chance all this happened, they'd still have to contend with the Wii and 360's successes from this point onwards.

 

[felipeko]

Actually I do have a problem with people proclaiming that the PS3 loses $240 per unit like it was gospel. The problem is that it came from an iSupply report, not from Sony, so it is not a guaranteed figure. In fact, when the PS2 came out, a third party report concluded that they must have been losing $188 per unit, which apparently was way off the mark. Wouldn't surprise me if a similar case is true this time as well. So the real question is, how much of Sony's $2 billion loss is front loaded fixed cost, and how much is marginal costs? We do know that Sony spent something like $400 million on R&D on the Cell and about $1.5 billion for a fab that can make it, so the fixed costs aspect is huge, and could potential be the primary source of cost.

The other is problem I have is the belief that the initial losses are going to stay forever. It's almost a certain bet that they are not losing as much now as during launch, purely on cost reductions on the blue-violet diodes and ever decreasing RAM prices. Further cost reductions will be found with the shrink to a 65nm process, which they seem to be ahead of MS on this. I wouldn't be surprised if they announced a price cut shortly and still maintain profitability estimate goals.

The problem i see is not only the losses, but the profit as well.
Sony don't make such profit from games business to validate such expenses.
PS3 already got them even with the whole PS2 profit. So maybe in the end of the generation they will turn profitable, but how much? Will that be worth the losses from now? And what about PS4, will they risk much?

According to Sony PS3 was to live 10 years, and i think they believed in that. If it live 10 years then they would profit a lot.. But now we all know it's unlikely.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

What in the **** happened in this thread?

 

[flammie]

Actually I do have a problem with people proclaiming that the PS3 loses $240 per unit like it was gospel. The problem is that it came from an iSupply report, not from Sony, so it is not a guaranteed figure. In fact, when the PS2 came out, a third party report concluded that they must have been losing $188 per unit, which apparently was way off the mark. Wouldn't surprise me if a similar case is true this time as well. So the real question is, how much of Sony's $2 billion loss is front loaded fixed cost, and how much is marginal costs? We do know that Sony spent something like $400 million on R&D on the Cell and about $1.5 billion for a fab that can make it, so the fixed costs aspect is huge, and could potential be the primary source of cost.

Cell and the blu-ray diode development should have been counted as R+D expenses in Sony's semiconductor division, not in their gaming division. Depending on how they do their bookkeeping, production costs could be in either division.

 

[schuelma]

What in the **** happened in this thread?

Basically Wiitard made the bold statement that Sony would essentially give up on PS3 in a year. Even Ntards like myself thought that was ridiculous.

 

[jj984jj]

Yeah, Harvest Moon Wii isn't doing badly compared to what others in the series did. Save the Homeland only did 15k in it's first week as well (though according to Famitsu).

 

[Koren]

Yeah, Harvest Moon Wii isn't doing badly compared to what others in the series did. Save the Homeland only did 15k in it's first week as well (though according to Famitsu).

Harvest moon is usually more popular on Nintendo platforms, though.

Still, for HM Wii, it's 15k first day, no?

 

[schuelma]

Harvest moon is usually more popular on Nintendo platforms, though.

Still, for HM Wii, it's 15k first day, no?

Correct

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I see.

Well I hope they un-ban him, he seemed like a nice guy. Though hopefully he stays out of sales threads next time.

It's not like there's anything to argue about in the sales threads anyway. :|

Juniors don't get second chances. Period.

 

[milanbaros]

When is the turnaround or at least an upturn in fortunes for the PS3 predicted to happen? Is it a price drop, a certain game release? I'm wondering if we can pinpoint a time that is truely crucial.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

When is the turnaround or at least an upturn in fortunes for the PS3 predicted to happen? Is it a price drop, a certain game release? I'm wondering if we can pinpoint a time that is truely crucial.

Virtua Fighter 5 Best Price

 

[schuelma]

When is the turnaround or at least an upturn in fortunes for the PS3 predicted to happen? Is it a price drop, a certain game release? I'm wondering if we can pinpoint a time that is truely crucial.

Well in the immediate future it needs to show some kind of sales bump from Sigma and Folks Soul. Long term...I really don't know. They need a awesome holiday season, but I really don't know what kind of really big Japan-centric games are going to be out by then. Possibly MGS4?

 

[Koren]

When is the turnaround or at least an upturn in fortunes for the PS3 predicted to happen? Is it a price drop, a certain game release? I'm wondering if we can pinpoint a time that is truely crucial.

I guess we could see a spike for the release of Minna no Golf this summer (usually a million seller in Japan). Probably with Winning Eleven (is there even a date ?). But I doubt the sales will steadily increase before the holydays.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I have to wonder how long the PS3 will remain $600. I mean look at the PSP. It took a long time for it to start getting a good reputation, and they're just NOW dropping the price.

Would they wait two years to drop the price? Would they be willing to contend with the lower sales, so long as they make a profit?

I don't know.

I do know that they're probably relying more on Blu-Ray than anything at this point.

 

[Koren]

I have to wonder how long the PS3 will remain $600.

I thought no one wanted the $500, 20GB model ?

I think that if they phased out the 20GB model, it was a first step towards a price cut. The lose less money on 60GB model, so they can cut it more easily.

Still, it must be a difficult decision. If they cut the price, and the sales doesn't increase significantly, they'll just lose more money... and the price cut may be see as a desperate move.

 

[justjohn]

wiitard banned? so there is a god

 

[davepoobond]

I have to wonder how long the PS3 will remain $600. I mean look at the PSP. It took a long time for it to start getting a good reputation, and they're just NOW dropping the price.

Would they wait two years to drop the price? Would they be willing to contend with the lower sales, so long as they make a profit?

I don't know.

I do know that they're probably relying more on Blu-Ray than anything at this point.

even though PSP wasn't selling as much as the DS, it had been "making a profit" according to Harrison about less than a year into it afai can remember. I suppose as long as it doesn't drop detrimentally from week-to-week in japan from where it is right now, they might hold their ground.

besides, the last game to really be released that was actually going to be bought by consumers was Gundam Musou...since then its just been Ubisoft shooters and Madden.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I have to wonder how long the PS3 will remain $600. I mean look at the PSP. It took a long time for it to start getting a good reputation, and they're just NOW dropping the price.

Would they wait two years to drop the price? Would they be willing to contend with the lower sales, so long as they make a profit?

I just read about latest SCEE moves towards PS3 price.

Bundles. Again. PSP-style.

PS3+Resistence or PS3+Motorstorm 630€.

Yeah, I can definately see Sony making a 2-year-long mistake again.

 

[Deku]

I see.

Well I hope they un-ban him, he seemed like a nice guy. Though hopefully he stays out of sales threads next time.

It's not like there's anything to argue about in the sales threads anyway. :|

I hope they don't.

 

[Christopher]

wiitard banned? so there is a god

I'd say Jesus at this point, just a few more of them to make me believe.

 

[Vinnk]

A tiny little update. In several of the stores in my town Biohazard 4: Wii edition is sold out. Now I don't pretend to know Capcom's shopment number which might have been very low, also the store that do have it still have several copies. The store that sold out are the dedicated game stores (hardcore) the department stores (casual) still have a lot of copies.

Just an observation, nothing more. But I am looking forward to the percentage of the shipment that was sold. That appears in Famitsu right?

 

[Phife Dawg]

I just read about latest SCEE moves towards PS3 price.

Bundles. Again. PSP-style.

PS3+Resistence or PS3+Motorstorm 630€.

Yeah, I can definately see Sony making a 2-year-long mistake again.

WTF? Oh well I didn't expect a pricecut this year anyways but if that's their incentive I might as well wait until next year to buy one.

 

[apujanata]

A tiny little update. In several of the stores in my town Biohazard 4: Wii edition is sold out. Now I don't pretend to know Capcom's shopment number which might have been very low, also the store that do have it still have several copies. The store that sold out are the dedicated game stores (hardcore) the department stores (casual) still have a lot of copies.

Just an observation, nothing more. But I am looking forward to the percentage of the shipment that was sold. That appears in Famitsu right?

Good news for cvxfreak.

Edit :

Yodobashi Camera Umeda, Bic Camera Namba, Sofmap DenDen and all the dedicated game shops I went to yesterday were sold out... well, not just empty shelf space, but big signs posted in the Wii sections apologizing about it, so I guess it's highly popular!

Even better news. This means, RE:UC might get higher first shipment from Capcom.

 

[marvelharvey]

A tiny little update. In several of the stores in my town Biohazard 4: Wii edition is sold out. Now I don't pretend to know Capcom's shopment number which might have been very low, also the store that do have it still have several copies. The store that sold out are the dedicated game stores (hardcore) the department stores (casual) still have a lot of copies.

Just an observation, nothing more. But I am looking forward to the percentage of the shipment that was sold. That appears in Famitsu right?

Just to add to your story...

Yodobashi Camera Umeda, Bic Camera Namba, Sofmap DenDen and all the dedicated game shops I went to yesterday were sold out... well, not just empty shelf space, but big signs posted in the Wii sections apologizing about it, so I guess it's highly popular!

 

[GoldenEye 007]

And by the way I'll let you in on a little secret: Sony is not nearly losing as much money with the PS3 as outside sources want to make you believe. These companies never do, they are not idiots. PS3 is not "high tech", it's a ****ing mass-produced consumer product. Blu Ray is not as expensive as they want to make you believe. It's the next ****ing iteration of a laser disc storage system, again mass produced consumer cheapware. The only high tech you get is in form of PR statements from the corporations. Guess why these products are so expensive at the beginning of the cycle? Huh? Yeah.

I guess SEGA never got that memo...

 

[Evlar]

Just to add to your story...

Yodobashi Camera Umeda, Bic Camera Namba, Sofmap DenDen and all the dedicated game shops I went to yesterday were sold out... well, not just empty shelf space, but big signs posted in the Wii sections apologizing about it, so I guess it's highly popular!

Sounds like positive word of mouth is fueling sales. That's the best explanation for an up-tick in demand in the second week.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Good, I'm glad to hear that.

Though it's a port, it's a good one. I hope it sells a lot.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Basically Wiitard made the bold statement that Sony would essentially give up on PS3 in a year. Even Ntards like myself thought that was ridiculous.

That's ****ing retarded. Seriously, whatever mod was in charge of that decision has a retarded thinking process -- no hyperbole.

A) If saying stupid shit is bannable, there would be no forum.
B) If saying ridiculously stupid shit is bannable, at least be consistent, e.g. if saying Sony drops PS3 support next year warrants a ban, so should saying Sony will sell 10 million by next Spring or will take the lead by the end '08.

Fanboy modding is probably one of the worst things that can happen to a forum, and this is coming from someone that HATES it when people call each other fanboys.

 

[apujanata]

First week sales:

2005.12.08 [NDS] Harvest Moon DS for Girls - 13,000
2005.03.17 [NDS] Harvest Moon DS - 22,026

Wii version at 15k, first day. That really so bad?

Harvest Moon player : 37% girls, 63% boys, confirmed ?

Why didn't they release those two games at the same time ? That way, we got an almost 100% accurate way to find gender breakdown of Harvest Moon player. I know that many girls play HM, but I did not realize it is such a high percentage.

Thanks for the info, parl.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

That's ****ing retarded. Seriously, whatever mod was in charge of that decision has a retarded thinking process -- no hyperbole.

A) If saying stupid shit is bannable, there would be no forum.
B) If saying ridiculously stupid shit is bannable, at least be consistent, e.g. if saying Sony drops PS3 support next year warrants a ban, so should saying Sony will sell 10 million by next Spring or will take the lead by the end '08.

Fanboy modding is probably one of the worst things that can happen to a forum, and this is coming from someone that HATES it when people call each other fanboys.

QFT. It's the type of thing that really ruins forums. When the dust settles, all that's left is a bunch of people agreeing with themselves.

I also don't like the anonymity of a lot of the bans. I think when a mod is banning someone, they should step forward and say they are doing so and why. If they don't, it almost feels like they're declining to be a part of the conversation and modding from on high.

 

[mabuza]

QFT. It's the type of thing that really ruins forums. When the dust settles, all that's left is a bunch of people agreeing with themselves.

I also don't like the anonymity of a lot of the bans. I think when a mod is banning someone, they should step forward and say they are doing so and why. If they don't, it almost feels like they're declining to be a part of the conversation and modding from on high.

i ****ing banned him. you have a problem with that?