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[Nightengale]

2014 was always going to be a soft year for PS4, just looking at the announcements, and all the interviews with Japanese devs interested in developing for PS4. It was clear that PS3/Vita was a far, far higher priority, whereas PS4 is mostly a 'cool new toy, I'll try it later.' approach.

The Inafune video where he implied getting Mighty No.9 out on last-gen as more essential than next-gen should really tell you all there is to know about the Japanese mentality when it comes to these transitions. They're in no hurry to move over.

2014 was always going to be the year where Sony has to weather the storm of 'nogaems' for the Japanese market, and pray that a GTAV miracle happens with some of the 2014 games confirmed current-gen only. And it cannot be a cross-gen game.

Even if Destiny becomes a massive hit in Japan, majority of the sales will be PS3, so any western 3rd-party reliance needs to be on current-gen exclusives. No matter how well cross-gen western games do in Japan, as far as 2014 is concerned, PS3 will eat the bulk of the sales.

Really, Sony's main job this year is to make sure that PS4's weak sales this year will not cause a bad momentum that's irreversible even when hot software are released eventually, make sure Japan Studio has at least two compelling titles lined up for next year, go and beg Nagoshi to make Yakuza 6 into a current-gen only exclusive, and pray that Nomura finishes FFXV to be released in 2015.

 

[Pain]

pls stop dropping, dear ps4

It'll probably keep dropping until Ground Zeroes releases.

 

[AdanVC]

Not even PS4 can bring the home console boom back on Japan, huge drop compared to next week, I honestly tought it's first month would sell around 100k after week launch... What was I thinking!?. Excellent numbers for handhelds tough, especially Vita. Wii U... it's now on the 7k numbers, that's just terrifying :'( and still 3 months left for MK8 and ANY retail release between that timeline other than Famicom Remix...

 

[Ipsoclipso]

PS4: KH3 & FFXV and cross gen MGSV won't be enough to make it successful in Japan, if Japanese developers don't start making games Exclusively for Ps4 then it will join the Wii u as a mediocre selling console in Japan, but Sony consoles usually have a long life, so I'm pretty sure it will outsell Ps3 if Japanese developers abandons Ps3 in favor of Ps4 in 3 or 5 years from now, but first 2 years will be rough.

3DS:Nintendo need to announce 3DSi and release it this year to keep the hardware sales high, a price drop will also help to sell some hardware, software seems to be alright though.


PSV:I'm not really interested in Vita so I don't really care about it, nice numbers I guess.


Wii U: Wii U 2014 sales potential is really vague and hard to predict, there seems to be over 5 AAA exclusive games coming for it (MK8,SSB4,Bay2,X...ect) it could sell really well when they are released especially with a price cut , or maybe they would get donkey kongd!

 

[ZSaberLink]

The Wii U and Vita both released in the holidays. Comparing them launch aligned to the PS4 doesn't make much sense... The Wii U had a bit of sales b/c of the holidays + some actually decent Japanese games at launch (NSMBU, Nintendo Land, and MH3U) but then pretty much had nothing. It still dropped faster than expected, and starting January it was terrible. I would think the PS4 will do better than the Vita launched aligned at least... Vita's 2012 sales were just terrible.

 

[Snakeyes]

What kind of sales bumps can we expect from MGS and KH? Both series have always been fringe 1 M sellers IIRC, even in the PS2 days.

 

[Rozart]

Nooo Japan. I'm legitimately worried for the future state of Japanese-developed games now. Consoles and handhelds both.

 

[phanphare]

It'll probably keep dropping until Ground Zeroes releases.

there's a pun in there somewhere..

 

[Metallix87]

I would have agreed until Delta boosted hardware this much

Roughly 10k boost is enough to suggest the system will outsell 3DS?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Not even PS4 can bring the home console boom back on Japan, huge drop compared to next week, I honestly tought it's first month would sell around 100k after week launch... What was I thinking!?. Excellent numbers for handhelds tough, especially Vita. Wii U... it's now on the 7k numbers, that's just terrifying :'( and still 3 months left for MK8 and ANY retail release between that timeline other than Famicom Remix...

People don't understand the Japanese release list at all for Wii U -_-'... It's actually better than the US release list lol, although I'm not sure how much it'll help. These are the titles with release dates for the Wii U in Japan. Thus there's something about every 2-3 weeks up until Mario Kart 8 starting in April, and I'm sure Nintendo has yet to say anything about titles after MK8 anyhow even if there was stuff.

Wii U Wii Sports Bundle - 3/27 - (although since the Wii Sports games are limited in this bundle, I think this is kind of useless. It's still a new SKU, and we'll potentially see numbers for Wii Sports Club in Famitsu.)
Just Dance Wii U - 4/3
Famicom Remix 1&2 Retail - 4/25
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed - 5/15
Mario Kart 8 - 5/30
Kamen Rider - 6/26

Child of Light is also 5/1, but that's obviously digital only.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Hell yeah vita Nice numbers

Btw I thought Japan had a upgrade to the SSD version if you bought the the original game option for a cheaper price online? Can someone confirm this

 

[Nightengale]

What kind of sales bumps can we expect from MGS and KH? Both series have always been fringe 1 M sellers IIRC, even in the PS2 days.

Soft for MGS GZ. Should be pretty solid for TPP.

Unknown for KH. The KH brand is still strong, but there hasn't been a mainline series in so long that it's hard to tell if a mothership KH series can sell significantly more than the handheld games.

 

[Daemul]

[3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 10.708 / 3.984.832

Why are Pokemons sales so low?

 

[Crom]

poor PS4, it will continue to drop unless games are released for it

It doesn't deserve to sell right now. It doesn't have compelling exclusives. It will be a good system eventually but right now there is not a big reason to own a PS4.

 

[inner-G]

Wonder how SSD did on digital?

 

[Nyoro SF]

Why are Pokemons sales so low?

In my personal opinion it's one of the most dull Pokemon games ever released, but I doubt that's the real reason. Perhaps just general interest in the series is at an all time low.

 

[Crom]

Champion talk is funny.

You're not winning the race in Mario Kart if you're ahead of the lead car that's already lapped past you twice.

I think you meant to say "lapped past you six times"

 

[ambientmystic]

Holy shiet, this current sales trend looks really bad for the PS4.

Dragonsworne may be right after all, the Wii U could still be Japan's leading home console for this generation, only by virtue of sucking less at overall LTD sales.

NintendoGAF rejoice!

/hyperbole

 

[darkwing]

Wonder if we'll get sub 10K PS4 weeks this year?

PS4 sales are not impressive. PSV doing okay? Or is 3DS just doing poorly this week?

this is a certainty if there are no other PS4 games released for this year, Deep Down doesn't even have a release date

Crazy to think the Vita has the possibility to outsell the PS4 this year

 

[cw_sasuke]

Why are Pokemons sales so low?

There is much competition on 3DS for the same market - Youkai Watch, DQM2. PvD-Z etc. thats bound to happen with more higher profile 3rd party titles fighting for a smaller userbase (compared to the DS).

 

[PreyingShark]

Why are Pokemons sales so low?

The game has been out since October. 10K a week at this point isn't really a cause for concern at all.

 

[darkwing]

It doesn't deserve to sell right now. It doesn't have compelling exclusives. It will be a good system eventually but right now there is not a big reason to own a PS4.

for Japan yes, the rest of the world has big 3rd party titles coming, plus Sony's first party games

 

[Zalman]

Why are Pokemons sales so low?

They've almost reached 4 million. Is that low?

 

[MYE]

I thought GAF said Japan was waiting for the PS4

 

[RedAssedApe]

Start re-directing those PS4s to Europe and the US

 

[Metallix87]

Holy shiet, this current sales trend looks really bad for the PS4.

Dragonsworne may be right after all, the Wii U could still be Japan's leading home console for this generation, only by virtue of sucking less at overall LTD sales.

NintendoGAF rejoice!

/hyperbole

I imagined this would be the case. Consoles are dead, but Nintendo is king of the dead simply because they actually produce content that Japanese consumers desire.

 

[pretty done]

Wonder how SSD did on digital?

lol

likely under 5k. more like Soul Sacrifice Bomba

 

[wrowa]

Pokemon is in that awkward place where sales are still on an extremely high level, so that the company behind it likely won't start questioning its appeal - when in fact, Nintendo probably should. Pokemon might be slowly losing its appeal to the kids audience for the simple reason that Nintendo is not doing very much to keep it feeling fresh.

It's not really a problem as of now, but it might become one if they don't try to react to it.

They've almost reached 4 million. Is that low?

It kind of is, when you keep in mind that most other main editions were at over 5 million units sold at the same point in time.

 

[B.O.O.M]

I thought GAF said Japan was waiting for the PS4

Some in Japan..yeah lol

But honestly Japan is not that important of a factor currently for PS4 sales, Western markets take priority. Once the PS3 to PS4 transition start happening from publishers/devs in Japan then the PS4 sales will pick up/become steady. I think this was the general opinion of users here regarding the JP sales for ps4 in the first year.

 

[Crom]

for Japan yes, the rest of the world has big 3rd party titles coming, plus Sony's first party games

Right now even in the rest of the world there is not a reason to own a PS4. I could play the worthwhile 3rd party games (like AC4) on Xbox 360, PS3, Wii U , or even PC.

Was hoping Thief would be good but it is garbage. Metal Gear is a demo.

Yes, launches for all systems lately have been lackluster but it is crazy thinking back the Wii U launch actually had the best software (which isn't saying much)

PS4 is lucky it is selling well in other countries because the software is lackluster.

I know it will pick up and be a great system but I couldn't recommend one right now until games come out.

PS - To be fair.....I don't like Infamous but know a lot of people do so at least that is coming in less than 2 weeks. What is the next big game after that? Watch Dogs which comes out at the end of May and is also on last gen consoles.

 

[Lexxism]

Given the current sales and the fact that vita has Miku + SAO and some smaller games its not that crazy to think it will outsell 3ds.

Outsell? Did you mean weekly or YTD?

 

[Zalman]

It kind of is, when you keep in mind that most other main editions were at over 5 million units sold at the same point in time.

True, but that was with a much bigger install base. The games will probably stay on store shelves for many years too. I don't see a problem, to be honest.

 

[Some Nobody]

People don't understand the Japanese release list at all for Wii U -_-'... It's actually better than the US release list lol, although I'm not sure how much it'll help. These are the titles with release dates for the Wii U in Japan. Thus there's something about every 2-3 weeks up until Mario Kart 8 starting in April, and I'm sure Nintendo has yet to say anything about titles after MK8 anyhow even if there was stuff.

MK8 takes us right up to the end of May. I'd expect a Direct in April to announce future games for the summer.

 

[TAS]

Terrible. The industry has changed for the worst it seems.

 

[Rolf NB]

I thought GAF said Japan was waiting for the PS4

The launch lineup is kinda terrible for the Japanese market. Yakuza Ishin and Knack are the only palpable titles.

I would hope that GAF you speak of mentioned this at some point.

 

[cafemomo]

I imagined this would be the case. Consoles are dead, but Nintendo is king of the dead simply because they actually produce content that Japanese consumers desire.

And not even the Japanese consumers want what they are producing.

 

[Metallix87]

Terrible. The industry has changed for the worst it seems.

I definitely think we're living in a time of great change in this industry. Dedicated game platforms are dying, and games are more a service now than a product. Japan has retreated to handhelds, while the West has accepted the reality facing them.

And not even the Japanese consumers want what they are producing.

Of course, because it's not a handheld device that the games are on.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

lily bergamo is gonna bomb hard

Has a possibility of doing well in the West. I mean look at Lollipop Chainsaw.

Well. There it is. Didn't Vita get a nice bundle this week too?
PS4, I haven't scrolled through this thread but is Psycho_Mantis around? Please tell everyone that it's still supply constrained this week.

Oh wow, looks like someone still can't come to terms that the PS4 was supply constrained last week.

I imagined this would be the case. Consoles are dead, but Nintendo is king of the dead simply because they actually produce content that Japanese consumers desire.

This has to be a joke.

Are there seriously people here thinking that the WiiU will have a higher LTD than the PS4 in Japan?

 

[wrowa]

Right now even in the rest of the world there is not a reason to own a PS4. I could play the worthwhile 3rd party games (like AC4) on Xbox 360, PS3, Wii U , or even PC.

I don't think it really matters a lot that its line-up is lacklustre as of now. There are a ton of games on the horizon and there's a general confidence that every important game will (also) be on PS4. People that buy a PS4 now do it knowingly that they are going to get several years out of entertainment out of it.

The situation in Japan feels a lot less confident, though. It's obvious that all big games by Japanese 3rd parties will (also) be on PS4, but there aren't a whole lot of those "big Japanese 3rd party games" anymore - and Japanese publishers of small to medium sized titles have shown in the past that they are willing to wait for quite some time before they are switching from one console to the next. Companies like NISA and Gust will develop for PS4 sooner or later though, I think that's pretty certain. PS4's outlook isn't rosy, but it will have a much better support than the Wii U - and while it may take some time before it beats the Wii U's LTD it definitely will eventually.

 

[maxiell]

They should have just called it Soul Sacrifice 2, haven't they learned from all these goofy subtitles yet?

 

[Nirolak]

They should have just called it Soul Sacrifice 2, haven't they learned from all these goofy subtitles yet?

I don't think it's actually Soul Sacrifice 2 though, but an expanded re-release.

I could be wrong.

 

[Canis lupus]

3DS peaked in 2012, they couldn't match it last year with arguably better SW like MH4 and Pokemon. Nintendo must be in deep internal panick mode seeing their only cash cow going slowly out 3 years after launch.

Just a result of continued PS4 system shortages, I'm sure

Spoiler

lol

Yeah we all expected PS4 to go up week after week.

 

[Metallix87]

This has to be a joke.

Are there seriously people here thinking that the WiiU will have a higher LTD than the PS4 in Japan?

Yes, absolutely. The content is much more appealing to that market. PS4 sales are as abysmal as I predicted they would be.

 

[boingball]

The PS4 race towards the Wii U continues. Will be interesting to see whether it falls below 10k as well.

The Vita is surprising though. It is almost beating the 3DS. Seems to be a Soul Sacrifice bump, though I would think that Soul Sacrifice fans already have a Vita, since this is the second game.

 

[Nightengale]

They should have just called it Soul Sacrifice 2, haven't they learned from all these goofy subtitles yet?

Japanese customers expect major upgrades from a game that carries a numbered title. And it needs to be different, as in really different.

SS: Delta, for what its worth, is an expansion pack, and that is what it is.

 

[cafemomo]

Has a possibility of doing well in the West. I mean look at Lollipop Chainsaw.

I'm assuming lollypop sold well in the the west just because of it's trashiness & it had WB's backing.

 

[B.O.O.M]

I don't think it's actually Soul Sacrifice 2 though, but an expanded re-release.

I could be wrong.

Nope you are absolutely right

and I could have sworn there was some cheap upgrade or some other similar promotional program for the game on JP PSN too...but can't seem to find a news source for it :S

 

[Hylian]

Not even PS4 can bring the home console boom back on Japan, huge drop compared to next week, I honestly tought it's first month would sell around 100k after week launch... What was I thinking!?. Excellent numbers for handhelds tough, especially Vita. Wii U... it's now on the 7k numbers, that's just terrifying :'( and still 3 months left for MK8 and ANY retail release between that timeline other than
Famicom Remix...

This has been long time coming. Japapanese developers will find new plattforms. And if they don't, new will be born to replace them. Only ones who are concerned are the ones who cling to defeated aaa blockbuster cycle as some form of saviour of high quality gaming. I think people are tired of the lack of meaning and purpose and the cookie cutter bullshit as a whole(especially Nintendo) ,current suits dont have any respect for mediums creative future thus it does not reflect anything of value as a whole few exeptions aside. New modern plattforms are laying the ground for the future ,flash ,steam and mobile at the front. Binding of isaac and supermeatboy sequels are more exiting for me than mario and zelda sequels. All this amazing Ness is being done with shoestring pudget without limitations. Im a life long hardcore Mario/Zelda fan who truly values mechanical auditive and artistic design quality. Why would I worry about a soulless sequel factory or bublishers who only care about their profits?. Im just gonna sit back and enjoy good games from those that care.

 

[harmonize]

True, but that was with a much bigger install base.

Pokemon is the biggest system seller Nintendo has; each iterations tremendously large amount of sales are a huge reason why the install base on all of their past handhelds were as large as they were, not the other way around.

 

[wrowa]

Yes, absolutely. The content is much more appealing to that market. PS4 sales are as abysmal as I predicted they would be.

Which content?

There's pretty much no chance that the PS4 won't catch up to the Wii U -- that's pretty much a certainty. Even in the worst case, the PS4 will stay on the market for years to come, while the Wii U's successor is likely to hit the market in 2 years at the latest. That alone will be enough to outsell the Wii U eventually.