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[shinra-bansho]

If I have to express my opinion on how Western titles will do in the Western market:

All of them will debut better on PS4 and One, and could have first two-three weeks of strong sales, BUT then sales will go down very quickly, while PS3 and 360 SKUs will see lower sales from start, but more consistent through time. Some titles more (COD), others less, but that should be the pattern. Look at Titanfall and (especially) inFAMOUS drops from March to April as an example.

Titanfall and inFamous aren't really exemplary of anything other than that blockbuster style releases have large drops.

What was the second month of __________? Most of the time we don't even know because they'll fail to chart and we won't be leaked a number.

360 and PS3 SKUs could have longer tails, probably as a result of software price collapse post-launch. I don't really know which titles to point to in terms of long tail blockbusters though besides COD.

 

[KillerMan91]

PC counts as hardware consumers already own that can play the software.

Eh. PC players are PC players every gen. I don't know how it has anything to to with generational transition. What those numbers tell is that a lot of people are already moving to this gen with these first cross gen games.

If I have to express my opinion on how Western titles will do in the Western market:

All of them will debut better on PS4 and One, and could have first two-three weeks of strong sales, BUT then sales will go down very quickly, while PS3 and 360 SKUs will see lower sales from start, but more consistent through time. Some titles more (COD), others less, but that should be the pattern. Look at Titanfall and (especially) inFAMOUS drops from March to April as an example.

It's actually pretty much opposite. Last gen versions probably debut better but as the time goes on this gen versions will outpace them as new console owners buy more software. Just a few examples that it's already happening to some degree.
February NPD: Battlefield 4 (PS4, Xbone, X360, PS3, PC)
April NPD: Call of Duty: Ghost (X360, PS4, Xbone, PS3, PC)

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Its not the 3rd party publishers to build install base. That's the job of first party and they need to convince them to do it either by offering to help with dev/marketing costs or lower royalty rates.

If Sony wanted faster PS4 development, they should have done the steps to process that further.

Absolutely, but you can't have a game every month from Sony themselves. Especially when more than half if WWS is western based and their games don't do as well in Japan. Look at the first year of the PS4 in the US. It has decent 1st party support and excellent third party support with most games selling better on PS4 than even the PS3/360. So it has paid off big for Activision, EA, Ubisoft and others to support the system early and build an install base to sell future games on.

 

[Miles X]

Anything for 3DS coming up? What are the project sales for the next few weeks?

 

[Tripon]

Absolutely, but you can't have a game every month from Sony themselves. Especially when more than half if WWS is western based and their games don't do as well in Japan. Look at the first year of the PS4 in the US. It has decent 1st party support and excellent third party support with most games selling better on PS4 than even the PS3/360. So it has paid off big tmfor Activision, EA, Ubisoft and others to support the system early and build an install base to sell future games on.

Why not? How many games has Sony Japan release so far on the PS4?

One. And that game is Knack.

 

[Metallix87]

Anything for 3DS coming up? What are the project sales for the next few weeks?

Persona Q in two weeks.

 

[AniHawk]

Anything for 3DS coming up? What are the project sales for the next few weeks?

persona q followed by yo-kai watch 2 in july. that's about it until pokemon gen 3r/mp4g.

oh and smash bros.

 

[Tagg9]

persona q followed by yo-kai watch 2 in july. that's about it until pokemon gen 3r/mp4g.

oh and smash bros.

Possibly Smash Bros in August/September as well.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It's the role of the platform holders to build a conducive audience willing to consume they type of content that publishers make.

Part of that is through producing their own content. Much of it is in the conception and design of the console and how it delivers value. And in communicating that value to potential consumers.

Sony have done a good job of that in Western markets.
In Japanese markets much less so. But the question in that is: Are the 580K PS4 owners ready and willing to consume the type of content that Japanese publishers make?

 

[FTF]

It's sad what console (sales) have become in Japan

At least Sony is going strong with the PS4 everywhere else.

 

[CassSept]

Currently online in BF4 (Mostly Europeans currently because of timezones):

PC: 26,462
PS3: 28,504
X360: 9,489
PS4: 34,559
Xbox One: 7,837

More people playing with this gen consoles.

Europe will skew towards PS4 since Xbone is not even released in most of the countries, and even when it is it's been mostly decimated by PS4. I guess the results would be a lot closer in America (PS4 would obviously still prevail, but not in >4:1 ratio).

 

[SkeptiMism]

You know better than to make sense when people want to be excited.

I'm always baffled by some of the short termism in this thread. PS4 is not dead in Japan. It's selling low numbers because there are no games. Once games start to come, sales will pick up. Wii U is slightly different because it's struggling worldwide.

Oh gawd..

Are you guys serious?

Sure, it'll rise a bit when games come out, it might even go to some fairly good numbers for a week or 2 kind of like what Wii U did during the christmas weeks in Japan. But if you look at those numbers I seriously can't imagine how you can still think the general populace is interested in the system even if there will be some games. It's dead. Japanese just aren't interested in home consoles anymore.

I'd be happy to be wrong of course, but we'll see. I do like your optimism though.

 

[DrROBschiz]

Possibly Smash Bros in August/September as well.

And 4G

3DS will likely continue to dominate the space for the rest of the year



At least Vita has some big games coming to disrupt things a bit.

 

[KillerMan91]

Europe will skew towards PS4 since Xbone is not even released in most of the countries, and even when it is it's been mostly decimated by PS4. I guess the results would be a lot closer in America (PS4 would obviously still prevail, but not in >4:1 ratio).

Well obviously yes when it comes to current gen battle American users will make that a lot closer but even with American users it will be this gen > last gen. Probably by bigger margin even as Europeans are historically little slower to adopt new consoles.

 

[NHarmonic.]

This is too worrying. I kind of don't want to see my favorite franchises die/move to mobile, and they happen to be made by Japanese devs so...

But we can't do anything about it from here. Japan is in the unstoppable spiral to irrelevancy, after all.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Why not? How many games has Sony Japan release so far on the PS4?

One. And that game is Knack.

It is just unrealistic to expect Japan Studio to put out that quantity of releases. And they most likely have Project Beast and TLG and Gravity Rush coming and if you believe Verendus a jrpg. Games take time. Which is why 3rd parties are essential to plug the holes. And they are doing so everywhere else in the world.

 

[kinoki]

Europe will skew towards PS4 since Xbone is not even released in most of the countries, and even when it is it's been mostly decimated by PS4. I guess the results would be a lot closer in America (PS4 would obviously still prevail, but not in >4:1 ratio).

Xbox One is available for purchase in every single country in europe. It just hasn't launched there. Go to any game retailer or electronic store and they will have both games and consoles. It might not have launched there but that doesn't matter. Sure, more will be sold once it's officially supported but don't think it's not easy to get a hold of if you wanted to. In Sweden I reckon Xbox One is easier to get a hold of than PS4, despite not having launched.

 

[L Thammy]

Oh gawd..

Are you guys serious?

Sure, it'll rise a bit when games come out, it might even go to some fairly good numbers for a week or 2 kind of like what Wii U did during the christmas weeks in Japan. But if you look at those numbers I seriously can't imagine how you can still think the general populace is interested in the system even if there will be some games. It's dead. Japanese just aren't interested in home consoles anymore.

I'd be happy to be wrong of course, but we'll see. I do like your optimism though.

Again, there's an area between total optimism and total pessimism. In Japan, PS4 probably won't do as well as the PS3 in the long run, and that isn't anything to be proud of. The amount of time that the PS4 lies dead on the shelf will likely cause some of the PS3's userbase to move away from consoles completely, unlikely to ever return. But the fact remains that there is still major support coming, and while it's not going to save us from the mobile menace, it's likely going to improve the situation.

 

[Tripon]

It is just unrealistic to expect Japan Studio to put out that quantity of releases. And they most likely have Project Beast and TLG and Gravity Rush coming and if you believe Verendus a jrpg. Games take time. Which is why 3rd parties are essential to plug the holes. And they are doing so everywhere else in the world.

Yes and again. Sony didn't do enough to entice them. Just like Nintendo and MS likely won't when they launch the XBox One in Japan.

Each respective platform holder has nobody to blame but themselves.

 

[sinseers]

For all the talk of Japan losing its relevance, they seem to collectively be the ones following games more than hype and PR. If only we were all that irrelevant.

Really interesting point. I hope that's what is going on over there.

 

[prag16]

Put the whole japanese market in the bomba bin...

Wii U above PS4 next week in anticipation of Kart? Probably. Almost happened this week already.

 

[Yagami_Sama]

I am looking forward to see Wii Out selling PS4; ^^

 

[theprodigy]

Put the whole japanese market in the bomba bin...

Wii U above PS4 next week in anticipation of Kart? Probably. Almost happened this week already.

more like PS4 tumbles below Wii U next week

 

[phanphare]

I am looking forward to see Wii Out selling PS4; ^^

Japan does need a new #champion

Spoiler

too soon Vita owners?

 

[Metallix87]

more like PS4 tumbles below Wii U next week

Wii U sales won't be stagnant. There wil be some kind of rise as Mario Kart approaches.

 

[IAmRandom31]

The console will pick up steam as the library comes out and the future is more certain with the console. Right now what japanese games are in development and scheduled for shipment in 2014 in Japan?

Exactly.

Why buy the console now if you are in Japan if there is no software you really want coming out until 2015?

It will be a slow year for the console in 2014. But it will pick up steam and start to sell steadily once the software lineup beefs up and the future is spelled out with more hyped titles.

 

[Infernal Monkey]

Put the whole japanese market in the bomba bin...

Wii U above PS4 next week in anticipation of Kart? Probably. Almost happened this week already.

I have no doubts the Wii U will outsell PS4 next week. It's Mario Kart up against the Japanese PS4 release of... Trials Fusion.

Then PS4's fucked for weeks on end with absolutely nothing hitting retail. Again.

 

[Metallix87]

The console will pick up steam as the library comes out and the future is more certain with the console. Right now what japanese games are in development and scheduled for shipment in 2014 in Japan?

Exactly.

Why buy the console now if you are in Japan if there is no software you really want coming out until 2015?

It will be a slow year for the console in 2014. But it will pick up steam and start to sell steadily once the software lineup beefs up and the future is spelled out with more hyped titles.

That type of mentality leads to stagnation and irrelevance.

 

[Bebpo]

Japan is so fucked. It's really not a creative land for videogame developers anymore (hasn't been for a while).

I had a few Play-Asia $5 off coupons so I was looking for something to pre-order and there's absolutely no games coming on any system besides MK, Smash and Persona Q for like the next 5 months until Persona 5 at some still unspecified point in time. The release list for 2014 is a wasteland. Every year there's been fewer and fewer releases. In a few years you'll see like 3 Japanese game companies still in business releasing 1 or 2 games a year and then eventually it'll probably be all gone and just Nintendo releasing their 1st parties. Everything else will be mobile or have closed shop.

I kind of wonder what happened to all the people employed at all the game companies 10 years ago. There's not that much mobile output to extrapolate everyone is on mobile. Wonder how many moved to non-gaming jobs like the guy who was the lead designer of Vanquish and is now a farmer.

 

[IAmRandom31]

That type of mentality leads to stagnation and irrelevance.

What type of mentality?

 

[Sage00]

Japan is so fucked. It's really not a creative land for videogame developers anymore (hasn't been for a while).

I had a few Play-Asia $5 off coupons so I was looking for something to pre-order and there's absolutely no games coming on any system besides MK, Smash and Persona Q for like the next 5 months until Persona 5 at some still unspecified point in time. The release list for 2014 is a wasteland. Every year there's been fewer and fewer releases. In a few years you'll see like 3 Japanese game companies still in business releasing 1 or 2 games a year and then eventually it'll probably be all gone and just Nintendo releasing their 1st parties. Everything else will be mobile or have closed shop.

I kind of wonder what happened to all the people employed at all the game companies 10 years ago. There's not that much mobile output to extrapolate everyone is on mobile. Wonder how many moved to non-gaming jobs like the guy who was the lead designer of Vanquish and is now a farmer.

Hah, really? Amazing.

 

[jmizzal]

Welp, gaming is dead. Long live iOS gaming.

When will WiiU overtake PS4? Next week or in two weeks?

Next week, then after that Mario Kart will be out and Wii U and WiiU will lead for a while, I dont even know when the next big Sony Japan game is coming out

 

[L Thammy]

I kind of wonder what happened to all the people employed at all the game companies 10 years ago. There's not that much mobile output to extrapolate everyone is on mobile. Wonder how many moved to non-gaming jobs like the guy who was the lead designer of Vanquish and is now a farmer.

A lot of the key figures from the big companies have moved on to form indie studios. The output of these studios is less than stellar, either in terms of scale or success. They also can't support a ton of releases like big companies can. Even though they remain in the industry they often seem to be invisible.

Hah, really? Amazing.

The director behind Katamari Damacy left the industry to create children's playgrounds, but came back. It happens sometimes.

 

[pixelbox]

Japanese market is weird. Deverlopers are reluctant to make games for low install base systems but then shoot themselves in the foot because they are not helping to build said install base.

It's a bunch chickens waiting for eggs to hatch and eggs waiting for chickens to birth them.

Pretty much. What I read here, and In going to it call out, is the same few people drooling to see the PS4 fail because their favorite console is. It isn't just the PS4 or mobile markets it piss poor software from all directions thats causing the decline. Japan is chasing the west instead of making what the Japanese wants.

 

[Fuchsdh]

When was the last Ps4 game released? Feels like its been at least six weeks.

I wonder what Sony was thinking. Did they expect the console to sell without any games?
I mean there is literally nothing. It not like releases are few and far apart. There is just nothing.
I wonder how long it'll take for software support to kick in on Ps4.

With all the talk about how Microsoft wanted to release the XB1 later until Sony forced their hand, I do wonder why they released with what appears to be a slightly greater drought after launch than usual.

That said they've still done well off the backs of core gamers so not having too many games hasn't really hurt either Sony or MS from what I can tell.

 

[Zok310]

Welp that's it for consoles in Japan.

 

[anexanhume]

I expect PS4 will establish itself as the console of choice in perpetuity starting sometime next year. It will start to become the only way for people to play the latest Western games they want to play. I realize the market for those is much smaller in Japan, but they still have decent sales for marquee games.

 

[Nirolak]

Before people start commiting harakiri

Last Year numbers:

| 3DS # | 36.162 |
| PSV | 11.564 |
| PS3 | 10.738 |
| PSP # | 6.833 |
| WIU | 6.058 |
| WII | 1.189 |
| 360 | 272 |

This is mostly a post gold week effect.

The issue isn't the comparison to last year, but the system and now huge decline that has aggregates after years of drops.

It's the frog in boiling water effect.

 

[prag16]

Pretty much. What I read here, and In going to it call out, is the same few people drooling to see the PS4 fail because their favorite console is. It isn't just the PS4 or mobile markets it piss poor software from all directions thats causing the decline. Japan is chasing the west instead of making what the Japanese wants.

Show me a SINGLE person here that is rooting for and/or celebrating PS4 failure.

People were accused of rooting for and/or celebrating Wii U failure in the past (a lot of that groundless I'd say even if a little bit of schadenfreude was detectable), and the PS4 talk has been pretty tame compared to that.

These topics are better when they are mostly devoid of console warz and/or fanboy b.s.

 

[Shmuely Bully]

Pretty much. What I read here, and In going to it call out, is the same few people drooling to see the PS4 fail because their favorite console is. It isn't just the PS4 or mobile markets it piss poor software from all directions thats causing the decline. Japan is chasing the west instead of making what the Japanese wants.

Japan is an aging and dying country with a zombie economy. Their problem is that they're focusing too much on the wants of Japan instead of actually making things that translate well. At the same time that anime has had its popularity collapse in the west Japanese games have become even more stylized and ecchi as they chase a shrinking market of middle-aged Japanese men who remember their school days fondly.

They might be able to grow the Japanese market again (or at least maintain it) if they actually made anything new or even bothered to support new platforms, but they refuse to take chances and as such only have themselves to blame.

 

[JayEH]

PS4 Noooo

 

[Parakeetman]

Show me a SINGLE person here that is rooting for and/or celebrating PS4 failure.

People were accused of rooting for and/or celebrating Wii U failure in the past (a lot of that groundless I'd say even if a little bit of schadenfreude was detectable), and the PS4 talk has been pretty tame compared to that.

These topics are better when they are mostly devoid of console warz and/or fanboy b.s.

These topics are better when they are devoid of the constant "PS4 ", "japan am doomed" among other idiotic comments that have been a commonplace lately in these Media Create threads. Its the same ol every single time every single week now.

Actual discussions and stuff sure go right ahead, but all of the drive by bullshit is getting old. I swear to god Im going to find out what the actual limit is to the ignore list at this rate as I do actually want to read through these threads due to some of the good convos that go on, but not have to sift through all the shit at the same time.

 

[sörine]

I expect PS4 will establish itself as the console of choice in perpetuity starting sometime next year. It will start to become the only way for people to play the latest Western games they want to play. I realize the market for those is much smaller in Japan, but they still have decent sales for marquee games.

I'm not entirely sure that audience hasn't already bought in to PS4 and is what we're seeing now?

 

[test_account]

Hype sold the PS4 in the West.

And why are people hyped for the PS4?

 

[Metallix87]

And why are people hyped for the PS4?

Good marketing, plus positive buzz from journalists. The price point helps, too.

What type of mentality?

"Things will get better after a year and a half to two years of selling very badly"

 

[prag16]

These topics are better when they are devoid of the constant "PS4 ", "japan am doomed" among other idiotic comments that have been a commonplace lately in these Media Create threads. Its the same ol every single time every single week now.

Actual discussions and stuff sure go right ahead, but all of the drive by bullshit is getting old. I swear to god Im going to find out what the actual limit is to the ignore list at this rate as I do actually want to read through these threads due to some of the good convos that go on, but not have to sift through all the shit at the same time.

Agreed, but don't act like this is a new phenomenon. All last year Nintendo fans had to put up with "lol Wii U" or "Vita above Wii U rofl" or "Wii U am cry" constantly, week after week.

 

[Parakeetman]

And why are people hyped for the PS4?

That and the presentations that Sony did were decent. Though the gamescom one was pretty abysmal...

Agreed, but don't act like this is a new phenomenon. All last year Nintendo fans had to put up with "lol Wii U" or "Vita above Wii U rofl" or "Wii U am cry" constantly, week after week.

Dont care about then, since am talking about now. Sides the Wii U shit is still going on. The problem is at this point in the game with the WiiU its obvious nintendo did something wrong with how little third party support they are getting with the system. Which isnt surprising seeing what happened with the Wii in general after the flash in the pan boost it had at first. The WiiU has less games slated than the PS4 does here in Japan in terms of releases which is pretty bad considering that its been out for quite some time now and you would think that Nintendo would have had more folks working on things for them by now.

 

[anexanhume]

I'm not entirely sure that audience hasn't already bought in to PS4 and is what we're seeing now?

Top charting game was PS3. Four PS3 games charted total. Three of those are western series or see the bulk of their sales in the west (MGS). Eventually those will only be PS4/XB1. No one will likely buy XB1 so PS4 will be de facto choice out of necessity.

 

[djtiesto]

Japan is an aging and dying country with a zombie economy. Their problem is that they're focusing too much on the wants of Japan instead of actually making things that translate well. At the same time that anime has had its popularity collapse in the west Japanese games have become even more stylized and ecchi as they chase a shrinking market of middle-aged Japanese men who remember their school days fondly.

If this is true, how come anime conventions like Otakon have been seeing their numbers growing every year? And also how come you have more mainstream embrace of anime than ever (Pharrell remixing a Miku track, Porter Robinson using vocaloids on his new album, etc).

Anyways, I don't even know why I go into these threads anymore... too depressing. Thank god for a 30 year backlog of Japanese games to play through, else I'd probably be finished with games forever.

 

[sörine]

Top charting game was PS3. Four PS3 games charted total. Three of those are western series or see the bulk of their sales in the west (MGS). Eventually those will only be PS4/XB1. No one will likely buy XB1 so PS4 will be de facto choice out of necessity.

But PS4 already has a strong western looking lineup, the audience that wants this is already best served by the platform. So why do you think this admittedly niche audience isn't already buying the system at 6-10k weekly?