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[SuperLeviathan]

I'm not sure what Nintendo's going to do around the time the PS5 and next xbox are gearing up for release. I think they've put themselves in a position with the Switch currently where it wouldn't be too difficult to port a PS4 game onto it: lower the resolution, maybe run at 30fps instead of 60fps and there's a chance it can run on Switch. Nothing like the huge legwork it took to get a 360/PS3 game up and running on the Wii.

However, it's likely that Sony and Microsoft will release their next systems in what would be the middle of the Switch's life and new games for those systems will be unworkable on a Switch. Is Nintendo going to rely on nothing but 1st party support after 2019 and support the system another 2-3 years? I know 3rd party support has never been great for Nintendo but that would be a very rough position, with the added bonus that the Switch will be perceived as a "last gen" system once the PS5/Xb2 are released. I think it's in their best interest to realign their next system within the ballpark of the PS5 and Xb2 release. I think if Sony and MS put out their next system in 2020, Nintendo's best move is to have their Switch successor ready for the 2nd half of 2021. That would give the Switch a respectable 4.5 year life.

The innards in the Switch are already top of the line. There isn't much Nintendo could do for a successor without abandoning the Switch concept entirely.

A refresh with a die-shrink and/or the latest Tegra architcture would be the best they could do.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Posting again here for the new page:

PS4 vs PS3 (PS4 reached 5 millions)

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 177|   50.448|4.925.582|   29.771|4.935.270|         9.688|
| 178|   38.877|4.964.459|   36.218|4.971.488|         7.029|
| 179|   28.973|4.993.432|   30.878|5.002.366|         8.934|
| 180|   25.590|5.019.022|         |         |              |
| 181|   25.629|5.044.651|         |         |              |
| 182|   32.874|5.077.525|         |         |              |
| 183|   26.185|5.103.710|         |         |              |
| 184|   20.463|5.124.173|         |         |              |
| 185|   19.075|5.143.248|         |         |              |
| 186|   20.987|5.164.235|         |         |              |
| 187|   18.951|5.183.186|         |         |              |
| 187|   17.676|5.200.862|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Switch vs 3DS

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |    Nintendo 3DS   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2011/02/26)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - 3DS  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  19|   30.233|1.188.335|   26.256|1.066.081|      -122.254|
|  20|   22.943|1.211.278|   31.906|1.097.987|      -113.291|
|  21|   46.637|1.257.915|   98.999|1.196.986|       -60.929|
|  22|   31.826|1.289.741|         |         |              |
|  23|   16.415|1.306.156|         |         |              |
|  24|    4.132|1.310.288|         |         |              |
|  25|  196.077|1.506.365|         |         |              |
|  26|  105.639|1.612.004|         |         |              |
|  27|   60.781|1.672.785|         |         |              |
|  28|   54.744|1.727.529|         |         |              |
|  29|   49.076|1.776.605|         |         |              |
|  30|   58.837|1.835.442|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

It's going to be really interesting to see how the PS4 fares as time goes on, considering the surprisingly consistent sales between the PS3/4 as of now. If I recall, didn't the PS3 have a pretty strong resurgence late in its life?

Also really interested in seeing if the Switch can surpass the 3DS before that huge spike in sales (price drop?) kicked in.

The innards in the Switch are already top of the line. There isn't much Nintendo could do for a successor without abandoning the Switch concept entirely.

A refresh with a die-shrink and/or the latest Tegra architcture would be the best they could do.

I agree that they really went all out with the Switch. I'm still amazed at how much power they're getting out of a system that weighs two-thirds of a pound (much of which is internal battery) compared to the other system's weighing in at over 6 pounds. Pretty incredible in my opinion. That said, there should be decent room for improvement by the time 2021 rolls around. And there's also the possibility of doing something like releasing a dock that actually adds computing power, as many thought the dock would originally do.

 

[Polygonal_Sprite]

The innards in the Switch are already top of the line. There isn't much Nintendo could do for a successor without abandoning the Switch concept entirely.

A refresh with a die-shrink and/or the latest Tegra architcture would be the best they could do.

Nintendo could already double the GPU flops and double the CPU speed while having twice the battery life with Switch. By 2020 mobile tech will be far, far in advance of that even shooting for a $300 price tag and respectable battery life but obviously fall far short of a PS5 / XB2.

 

[ggx2ac]

Meanwhile in Japan:

 

[Skullwaker]

I don't really think the Switch would be replaced within the same time frame as the Wii U. Usually their portable systems have significantly longer lifespans due to their revisions, aside from the GBA which was replaced by the DS after 3.5 years.

Edit: That picture is glorious.

 

[nubbe]

Meanwhile in Japan:

In August, it will be Monster Hunter DOUBLE CROSS

 

[Sammy Samusu]

It's going to be really interesting to see how the PS4 fares as time goes on, considering the surprisingly consistent sales between the PS3/4 as of now. If I recall, didn't the PS3 have a pretty strong resurgence late in its life.

Nope.

PS3 never really peaked. It just kept selling miserably for many many years. That's Sony's thing, a marathon not a sprint (they still lose the race).

2006 - 466.716
2007 - 1.206.347
2008 - 991.303
2009 - 2.385.911
2010 - 1.490.473
2011 - 1.460.209
2012 - 1.255.686
2013 - 820.803
2014 - 445.154

PS4 is walking the same path, as you can see in the comparison you quoted. Its fourth year in the market will likely be its peak, just like the PS3. Looks like 2 million is the ceiling for Sony consoles.

2014 - 924.630
2015 - 1.275.759
2016 - 1.812.072
2017 - 991.009

 

[casiopao]

I am still firm on my prediction that ps4 wont beat ps3 number in jp by far here. Even if the support is there, the time is simply not on its side.

PS5 is going to be announced probably 2018. That is going to start slowing down the legs of ps4 and making it end close or probably equal to ps3 number.

 

[plank]

Meanwhile in Japan:

what am I looking at?

 

[Hattori]

what am I looking at?

Ad-hoc heaven

 

[Datschge]

I'm not sure what Nintendo's going to do around the time the PS5 and next xbox are gearing up for release. I think they've put themselves in a position with the Switch currently where it wouldn't be too difficult to port a PS4 game onto it: lower the resolution, maybe run at 30fps instead of 60fps and there's a chance it can run on Switch. Nothing like the huge legwork it took to get a 360/PS3 game up and running on the Wii.

However, it's likely that Sony and Microsoft will release their next systems in what would be the middle of the Switch's life and new games for those systems will be unworkable on a Switch. Is Nintendo going to rely on nothing but 1st party support after 2019 and support the system another 2-3 years? I know 3rd party support has never been great for Nintendo but that would be a very rough position, with the added bonus that the Switch will be perceived as a "last gen" system once the PS5/Xb2 are released. I think it's in their best interest to realign their next system within the ballpark of the PS5 and Xb2 release. I think if Sony and MS put out their next system in 2020, Nintendo's best move is to have their Switch successor ready for the 2nd half of 2021. That would give the Switch a respectable 4.5 year life.

As the context of this thread is the Japanese dedicated gaming device market I don't think Switch has much to worry about. At the current rate static home consoles become more irrelevant to the overall gaming market each gen a traditional PS5 is bound to be even more niche.

 

[Kageshinzo]

I'm not sure what Nintendo's going to do around the time the PS5 and next xbox are gearing up for release. I think they've put themselves in a position with the Switch currently where it wouldn't be too difficult to port a PS4 game onto it: lower the resolution, maybe run at 30fps instead of 60fps and there's a chance it can run on Switch. Nothing like the huge legwork it took to get a 360/PS3 game up and running on the Wii.

However, it's likely that Sony and Microsoft will release their next systems in what would be the middle of the Switch's life and new games for those systems will be unworkable on a Switch. Is Nintendo going to rely on nothing but 1st party support after 2019 and support the system another 2-3 years? I know 3rd party support has never been great for Nintendo but that would be a very rough position, with the added bonus that the Switch will be perceived as a "last gen" system once the PS5/Xb2 are released. I think it's in their best interest to realign their next system within the ballpark of the PS5 and Xb2 release. I think if Sony and MS put out their next system in 2020, Nintendo's best move is to have their Switch successor ready for the 2nd half of 2021. That would give the Switch a respectable 4.5 year life.

Or they could update the Switch 2~3 years from now, call it Switch Extra or something, and get another 3 years out of it. Much as how some people in GAF would like to believe otherwise, the Switch is Nintendo's entry to the 9th generation, with the PS5 and Nextbox.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Next year Nintendo will drop the Switch revision paired with Animal Crossing and we will witness 5 million units sold in that calendar year.

Be prepared so it doesn't hit you too hard.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

what am I looking at?

All game development in Japan halted because employees are all playin Splatoon fun times.

 

[Datschge]

Or they could update the Switch 2~3 years from now, call it Switch Extra or something, and get another 3 years out of it. Much as how some people in GAF would like to believe otherwise, the Switch is Nintendo's entry to the 9th generation, with the PS5 and Nextbox.

There is also the earlier promise of it being a platform like iOS or Android which doesn't get its software reset to zero with any new substantially modernized model.

 

[Ōkami]

This week's issue of Famitsu contains the Top 100 for H1 2017 as well as the digital estimates for June, hopefully both will be posted soon.

Best selling digital game of the month was Fallout 4.

 

[vareon]

I'm not sure what Nintendo's going to do around the time the PS5 and next xbox are gearing up for release. I think they've put themselves in a position with the Switch currently where it wouldn't be too difficult to port a PS4 game onto it: lower the resolution, maybe run at 30fps instead of 60fps and there's a chance it can run on Switch. Nothing like the huge legwork it took to get a 360/PS3 game up and running on the Wii.

However, it's likely that Sony and Microsoft will release their next systems in what would be the middle of the Switch's life and new games for those systems will be unworkable on a Switch. Is Nintendo going to rely on nothing but 1st party support after 2019 and support the system another 2-3 years? I know 3rd party support has never been great for Nintendo but that would be a very rough position, with the added bonus that the Switch will be perceived as a "last gen" system once the PS5/Xb2 are released. I think it's in their best interest to realign their next system within the ballpark of the PS5 and Xb2 release. I think if Sony and MS put out their next system in 2020, Nintendo's best move is to have their Switch successor ready for the 2nd half of 2021. That would give the Switch a respectable 4.5 year life.

If Switch is successful they'll continue it as long as they can. The 3DS is outclassed by mobile phones years ago and they released a new hardware model in its 6th year.

 

[sense]

I am still firm on my prediction that ps4 wont beat ps3 number in jp by far here. Even if the support is there, the time is simply not on its side.

PS5 is going to be announced probably 2018. That is going to start slowing down the legs of ps4 and making it end close or probably equal to ps3 number.

I highly doubt they announce ps5 in 2018. The console is most likely not coming out until fall 2019 or maybe later. Considering PS4 had a late Japan release, I can see Sony doing the same for ps5 so Japan is likely not seeing a new console until 2020.

 

[AzaK]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

 

[Calm Mind]

Meanwhile in Japan:

heaven

 

[Mory Dunz]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

yeah, it's hard being the smartest guy in the room

 

[Datschge]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

You don't look into these threads often enough then.

 

[Kageshinzo]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

It's called safety stock.

 

[Alrus]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

Another smartass posted the exact same thing on the first page, make the effort to read the thread before doing lame hot takes.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I highly doubt they announce ps5 in 2018. The console is most likely not coming out until fall 2019 or maybe later. Considering PS4 had a late Japan release, I can see Sony doing the same for ps5 so Japan is likely not seeing a new console until 2020.

We probably arent seeing a PS5 until 2020. If it's 2019 I'd be surprised.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Or they could update the Switch 2~3 years from now, call it Switch Extra or something, and get another 3 years out of it. Much as how some people in GAF would like to believe otherwise, the Switch is Nintendo's entry to the 9th generation, with the PS5 and Nextbox.

I could certainly see that happening, I'm just curious to see how they'll go about it while making sure owners of the original Switch aren't left out in the cold, forced to either pay for the upgrade or go without receiving some compatible games. And yes, the Switch is their 9th gen device, but it's already weaker than Sony/MS' 8th gen devices, so the meaning and implication of consoles improving in terms of generational increments is kind of coming apart at the seams. PS4 Pro and XB1X only further muddy the waters.

As the context of this thread is the Japanese dedicated gaming device market I don't think Switch has much to worry about. At the current rate static home consoles become more irrelevant to the overall gaming market each gen a traditional PS5 is bound to be even more niche.

In the context of Japan, yeah. If JP continues to not care much about home consoles and Sony continue to not care much about having a new portable device I think they might more or less cede the whole country, just as MS has already done. That would (obviously) leave Nintendo as the only seat at the table. I'm sure the PS5 will still squeeze out a few million LTD, but it'll be competing with Nintendo the way the Vita was "competing" with the 3DS.

If Switch is successful they'll continue it as long as they can. The 3DS is outclassed by mobile phones years ago and they released a new hardware model in its 6th year.

Good point. I'm still not sure that they'll want to be releasing their new systems 2-3 years out of step with the other manufacturers though.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I thought we would get PS5 in fall 2019, but after seeing how small the jumps have been for Pro and Scorpio, i've changed my mind to Fall 2020 at the earliest.

 

[casiopao]

I highly doubt they announce ps5 in 2018. The console is most likely not coming out until fall 2019 or maybe later. Considering PS4 had a late Japan release, I can see Sony doing the same for ps5 so Japan is likely not seeing a new console until 2020.

If they are holding it till 2020, then i can see it reaching ps3 number but that would mean that we believe that PS4 would maintain its pace like this for 2018 and 2019 which i had hard time seeing it as most platform reaching 5+ years old will begin decline in both sales and mindshares.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

oh boy

again

 

[D.Lo]

Leading up to this wasn't everyone saying the Switch wasn't selling due to stock? Doesn't look like it to me.

No. Read the thread before a drive by.

 

[sense]

If they are holding it till 2020, then i can see it reaching ps3 number but that would mean that we believe that PS4 would maintain its pace like this for 2018 and 2019 which i had hard time seeing it as most platform reaching 5+ years old will begin decline in both sales and mindshares.

I don't see why not. Sony can sell the base PS4 for 199 (yen equivalent) in 2018 or even go down to 150 in 2019 without losing a lot of money something they couldn't do with PS3 without losing money. I can't see software drying up for the next two years atleast.

 

[casiopao]

I don't see why not. Sony can sell the base PS4 for 199 (yen equivalent) in 2018 or even go down to 150 in 2019 without losing a lot of money something they couldn't do with PS3 without losing money. I can't see software drying up for the next two years atleast.

Just like 3ds software is not drying up even in this year, the sales is going on whimper as it had reach saturation stages.

The end of console life even if the platform is much cheaper is going to make it sold much lesser every week as the potential seller is dwindling.

 

[Ōkami]

This week's issue of Famitsu contains the Top 100 for H1 2017 as well as the digital estimates for June, hopefully both will be posted soon.

Best selling digital game of the month was Fallout 4.

Wait no, next week actually, I just read the whole thing and its not there.

It doesn't even feature a review for DQXI, though the Switch versions is somehow on the 30 most wanted.

There is some PSN Top 10 though, pretty sure this is a survey, they probably get their estimates by strapolating them, I'll compare them to the proper estimates next week to see whats up (they'll be counting June as 4 weeks, yay Famitsu)

 

[silpheed-mcd]

Third party sales still unkown (Disgaea 5: Complete + I am Sestuna + Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power Up Kit + Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII with Power Up Kit + all the other games with weekly sales missing) - < 168,150 ± ???* / 115,653**

From famitsu:

21./00. [NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete (Nippon Ichi Software) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 5.065 / NEW

22./00. [NSW] I am Setsuna (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 4.625 / NEW


From dengeki:

22./00. [NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete (Nippon Ichi Software) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 4,643 / NEW
42./22. [NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete (Nippon Ichi Software) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 1,325 / 5,968

27./00. [NSW] I am Setsuna (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 3,419 / NEW
46./27. [NSW] I am Setsuna (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 1,106 / 4,525

36./00. [NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit (Koei Tecmo) {2017.03.03} &#8211; 2,050 / NEW

 

[Vital Tundra]

Now watch as we see Splatoon on the charts for many years to come.

 

[Ex-Psych]

I think how well DQXI does on PS4 in Japan will be a good indicator of how well MHW will do.

I mean both franchise that sells gangbusters and are trying to transition to the PS4.

 

[Branduil]

I think how well DQXI does on PS4 in Japan will be a good indicator of how well MHW will do.

I mean both franchise that sells gangbusters and are trying to transition to the PS4.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Dragon Quest has historically been a console franchise, and a single-player game. Monster Hunter has never done as well as a single-player franchise compared to the handheld games which enable a communal experience.

 

[sense]

Just like 3ds software is not drying up even in this year, the sales is going on whimper as it had reach saturation stages.

The end of console life even if the platform is much cheaper is going to make it sold much lesser every week as the potential seller is dwindling.

I guess the difference in opinion comes from the notion that you think the PS4 has saturated the market and I don't think it has, not for atleast another couple of years. I can see mhw bundle for like 249 next year that should have long legs. I am surprised Sony is not being as aggressive as the rest of the world with price drops/promotions in Japan. Why not do a 249$ bundle like they do in US/Europe for major games like for the upcoming dq launch. They did a persona 5 slim bundle for 400$ last year which was pretty high!!

 

[duckroll]

I don't think that's necessarily true. Dragon Quest has historically been a console franchise, and a single-player game. Monster Hunter has never done as well as a single-player franchise compared to the handheld games which enable a communal experience.

I don't think you need to be identical to be indicative. We know that MH does less on consoles. We also know that it does better on consoles which can push million sellers, versus consoles which can't. What DQXI will indicate is whether the PS4 can push million sellers at all in Japan, which is a yardstick.

 

[D.Lo]

I don't think you need to be identical to be indicative. We know that MH does less on consoles. We also know that it does better on consoles which can push million sellers, versus consoles which can't. What DQXI will indicate is whether the PS4 can push million sellers at all in Japan, which is a yardstick.

There have been only three mainline, not old port MH titles released on home consoles, all on PS2 and Wii, both of which were very successful home consoles that sold lots of software. Yet even then it sold 4X that on portables.

 

[duckroll]

There have been only three mainline, not old port MH titles released on home consoles, all on PS2 and Wii, both of which were very successful home consoles that sold lots of software. Yet even then it sold 4X that on portables.

Yes? No one is disputing this.

 

[D.Lo]

Yes? No one is disputing this.

Exactly which consoles that 'don't push million sellers' has a main MH game been released on before?

MHW is the first time a main MH is going to be released on a relatively unsuccessful (in Japan) platform, and that platform also has the MH non-portable handicap. I don't see DQ being indicative of anything unless it can turn the PS4 around by itself.

 

[casiopao]

I guess the difference in opinion comes from the notion that you think the PS4 has saturated the market and I don't think it has, not for atleast another couple of years. I can see mhw bundle for like 249 next year that should have long legs. I am surprised Sony is not being as aggressive as the rest of the world with price drops/promotions in Japan. Why not do a 249$ bundle like they do in US/Europe for major games like for the upcoming dq launch. They did a persona 5 slim bundle for 400$ last year which was pretty high!!

I see handheld and console market as a different market.

A pure console like ps4 is going to be saturated much faster in jp vs handheld likr 3ds or semi console/handheld like switch.

And of course just like u said, Sony dont seems to see any urgency to drop ps4 price in japan so the barrier is always going to be there while Switch is going to had more space to manuver with smaller form factor while ps4 slim already launched so unless ps4 is able to find another new attractive iteration, i dont see it maintaining this level of sales till 2019.

 

[thestopsign]

yeah, it's hard being the smartest guy in the room

You don't look into these threads often enough then.

It's called safety stock.

Another smartass posted the exact same thing on the first page, make the effort to read the thread before doing lame hot takes.

oh boy

again

No. Read the thread before a drive by.

Guys. Put Azak on your Ignore List. He does drive by posts with incomprehensible logic every time something good happens for Nintendo. Just look through his post history.

 

[Kageshinzo]

Guys. Put Azak on your Ignore List. He does drive by posts with incomprehensible logic every time something good happens for Nintendo. Just look through his post history.

But then how will I be able to imagine him gritting his teeth while posting every time Nintendo finds success if I can't read his shitty posts?

 

[MoonFrog]

Guys. Put Azak on your Ignore List. He does drive by posts with incomprehensible logic every time something good happens for Nintendo. Just look through his post history.

I've yet to ignore, but I think I tend to be the more annoying person in most exchanges I have .

...

OT: Wasn't Tri early Wii/low install base Wii? Could be wrong, never played the game. I think if DQXI is significantly stronger than FFXV that does look good for MHW also hitting a million.

 

[thestopsign]

But then how will I be able to imagine him gritting his teeth while posting every time Nintendo finds success if I can't read his shitty posts?

You can just read this quote by him over and over again and imagine it's approximately what he said in his post:

Oh I don't waste too much time on it, it' just a wish I have. Nintendo are a bunch of wankers really. Probably the worst gaming company that's ever existed IMO. They are dirty, underhanded, cheap, dogmatic, antiquated and treat their loyal consumers like dog turds.

 

[duckroll]

Exactly which consoles that 'don't push million sellers' has a main MH game been released on before?

MHW is the first time a main MH is going to be released on a relatively unsuccessful (in Japan) platform, and that platform also has the MH non-portable handicap. I don't see DQ being indicative of anything unless it can turn the PS4 around by itself.

I think you misunderstand. I'm making an observation that the less successful a console is, the more restrained big titles are, regardless of whether the preference is on portable or console. Even ports of MH should do much better than they did on something like PS3. What DQ is going to indicate, is how successful or unsuccessful the PS4 is in Japan. THAT is the point. It's not about turning it around, it's about reading the market. Right now all we have on the PS4 to read it's popularity in Japan is a bunch of has-been franchises and cross-generation expanding B-tier franchises. DQ will show us how much the Japanese audience really wants big console games in a top selling franchise because we can use that along with the more disappointing results of FFXV are yardsticks for what MHW could do. The bigger DQ is, the better chance MHW has of not completely shitting the bed in Japan.

 

[Calm Mind]

What good is the ignore function if everyone keeps quoting the brainfarts?

 

[SMOK3Y]

It's going to be really interesting to see how the PS4 fares as time goes on, considering the surprisingly consistent sales between the PS3/4 as of now. If I recall, didn't the PS3 have a pretty strong resurgence late in its life?

PS3 sold strong everywhere but US thoughout its life