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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2017 (Jul 17 - Jul 23)

A

AdventureRacing

Member
Unlike the wii version of monster hunter the PS4 version feels like the series first true generational leap. I think it'll sell better than the wii version based on that. I'll wait and see how DQ does first but I think 1 million plus is likely. It won't come close to the portable versions obviously but I think it will surpass expectations.
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
Idk. I think being open to a million seller MHW right now is pretty sensible. If DQXI struggles like FFXV against current expectations, then that seems a less likely possibility but idt at the moment MHW doing 1 million plus is outside expectations.

Edit: I wonder what is outside of current, vague expectations atm. Besides the obvious numbers like 983879966.
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
duckroll said:
I think you misunderstand. I'm making an observation that the less successful a console is, the more restrained big titles are, regardless of whether the preference is on portable or console. Even ports of MH should do much better than they did on something like PS3. What DQ is going to indicate, is how successful or unsuccessful the PS4 is in Japan. THAT is the point. It's not about turning it around, it's about reading the market. Right now all we have on the PS4 to read it's popularity in Japan is a bunch of has-been franchises and cross-generation expanding B-tier franchises. DQ will show us how much the Japanese audience really wants big console games in a top selling franchise because we can use that along with the more disappointing results of FFXV are yardsticks for what MHW could do. The bigger DQ is, the better chance MHW has of not completely shitting the bed in Japan.
Click to expand...
okay I see what you're saying. I just don't think so, even a big DQ number (1m first week, 1.5 LTD?) would be a special case of it being an 'exclusive real version of Japan's #1 home console game'.

MH though, it's multiplayer. MH is like a portable old school version of a GAAS. It would be like a single player or online only Street Fighter or Mario Kart.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
AdventureRacing said:
Unlike the wii version of monster hunter the PS4 version feels like the series first true generational leap. I think it'll sell better than the wii version based on that. I'll wait and see how DQ does first but I think 1 million plus is likely. It won't come close to the portable versions obviously but I think it will surpass expectations.
Click to expand...

Does Japan really care about games showing off "generational leaps" like we do here? I'm under the impression that Japan is not a market particularly concerned with graphical improvements. I seem to recall slow PS3 sales being partially attributed to few people in JP owning HDTVs, for instance.
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Does Japan really care about games showing off "generational leaps" like we do here? I'm under the impression that Japan is not a market particularly concerned with graphical improvements. I seem to recall slow PS3 sales being partilly attributed to few people in JP owning HDTVs, for instance.
Click to expand...

Obviously it isn't as important in Japan hence why handhelds are so dominant. I'm sure it still has some influence. Also a game get have more than just graphical improvements when moving onto HW which is that much more powerful.
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
I wonder what would be a "good" result for Switch, in the end.

As I said up thread, I do have trouble seeing it sell more than 3DS. The 3DS sold really well and I'd imagine mobile is even more of a thing now than it was when 3DS started to build up steam in terms of install base and software catalog.

...

I do feel that the Switch, so far, is more "on point:"

3DS is similar to Wii U in a certain way: It feels like a device that wanted to be its predecessor but also didn't and came at it in an uninspired way. In the case of the Wii U, this is more noticeable in the hardware itself. In the case of 3DS, I think this is a catalog issue. 3DS lost a lot of the support that made DS unique compared to its predecessors and the PSP and ended up very much in the vein of a GameBoy, so to speak.

Meanwhile, Switch is trying to own that identity and push it, presenting itself as a console that is portable (Zelda, 3D Mario) and also really pushing more "traditional" multiplayer games, including the particularly hot Splatoon, to excite a culture of MH/Pokemon like LAN play. I've got to imagine more mobile-friendly mainstays are around the corner, but Nintendo seems very intent on presenting the Switch as something exciting and different from mobile at the outset.

And I think they're being rewarded for having a clear and (apparently) compelling vision for the device. It is difficult to gauge how much they're being rewarded, of course, because of current stock issues.

Going forward, I also think the Switch is going to continue to be stronger than 3DS in this respect from a first party perspective, as a result of merging Wii U and 3DS development streams.

And I also think Switch is set to succeed 3DS at least as a console for JRPGs. SE and Atlus, for example, both seem to be on board to succeed their 3DS efforts and Nintendo's internal RPGs will all be on the console.

So I do think Nintendo is starting Switch off better as a "core" device and I think surpassing 3DS in this respect is quite feasible.

Moreover, this does bleed over into expanded audience, wrt things like Pokemon, Mario Kart, Splatoon, 2D Mario, etc.

Still, the fear in the back of my mind is "how attractive and competitive can Switch be as an expanded audience machine?" This is coupled with the question as to how much that is what explains 3DS's numbers, despite being a shadow of the DS in this respect.

And as I said just above and I believe we all expect, Nintendo will turn to heavy-hitters like Pokemon and Animal Crossing at some point, probably next year or so. I do think the work Nintendo is doing to differentiate from mobile atm and to push console LAN multiplayer is probably the right way to start, but a lot of what happens with Switch is probably going to be tied up in how well they manage pushing it as an expanded audience device too in the future.

And it is there that I'm pessimistic. I have a hard time seeing Switch being more relevant or as relevant as 3DS in this regard, despite also thinking this was 3DS's core weakness with respect to succeeding the DS.

IDK. I'm really curious about this and how the third party situation turns out.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
MoonFrog said:
As I said up thread, I do have trouble seeing it sell more than 3DS. The 3DS sold really well and I'd imagine mobile is even more of a thing now than it was when 3DS started to build up steam in terms of install base and software catalog.
Click to expand...

Mobile is very strong but it's always the easy answer when you try to find excuses for something that unperformed, similar to the recent meme "it did good for the state of Japan". If you aren't capable to offer a product that can attract consumers' money first thing that went wrong was you.

After 3DS failed launch there was an opinion that mobile was the one and only future when in reality Nintendo was the one blame for misreading the market with hardware and software choices. If a company can't read the drastic changes that happen year after year in gaming landscape it's inevitable sometime will pay it.
 
B

Branduil

Member
It will be harder for the Switch to outperform the 3DS in Japan for the simple fact that the 3DS was already a big success in Japan, it's strongest market. It's the US, Europe, and the rest of the world where the Switch has strong potential to outperform the 3DS and do closer to Wii numbers.
 
T

TheBaldEmperor

Member
Datschge said:
There is also the earlier promise of it being a platform like iOS or Android which doesn't get its software reset to zero with any new substantially modernized model.
Click to expand...

This is what I want more than anything. I love the base design of this system. I would hate to lose it with the next system. Just update it like apple does with the iPad. Not sure if that's a wise business move but it is what I'd like to see.
 
D

duckroll

Member
D.Lo said:
okay I see what you're saying. I just don't think so, even a big DQ number (1m first week, 1.5 LTD?) would be a special case of it being an 'exclusive real version of Japan's #1 home console game'.

MH though, it's multiplayer. MH is like a portable old school version of a GAAS. It would be like a single player or online only Street Fighter or Mario Kart.
Click to expand...

I don't think you REALLY see what I'm saying. It's not "if DQ sells 2 million then MHW has the chance to sell 2 million" at all. It is more like "If DQ easily sells over a million, then it bodes well that MHW won't be a complete disaster". MHW isn't going to sell millions. But if it can sell over 500k in Japan, that would already be really good considering the majority of the audience is expected to be overseas. Right now I don't think it has been proven at all that the PS4 is even capable of letting MHW do those numbers in Japan. FFXV really struggled to climb to a million, and nothing else released comes close. All big PS3 franchises have dropped significantly on the PS4.
 
N

NintendosBooger

Member
Branduil said:
It will be harder for the Switch to outperform the 3DS in Japan for the simple fact that the 3DS was already a big success in Japan, it's strongest market. It's the US, Europe, and the rest of the world where the Switch has strong potential to outperform the 3DS and do closer to Wii numbers.
Click to expand...

Not sure about that.

I think the Switch will get the sort of games the 3DS never had the chance of securing from third parties, namely more visual novels, some dungeon crawlers, and maybe a few hunter-style games. If it can get these, plus key multiplatform titles, then augmenting the rest with traditional 3DS ips like EO or YW and Nintendo's first party exclusives could yield even greater reception to it.
 
R

random25

Member
Branduil said:
It will be harder for the Switch to outperform the 3DS in Japan for the simple fact that the 3DS was already a big success in Japan, it's strongest market. It's the US, Europe, and the rest of the world where the Switch has strong potential to outperform the 3DS and do closer to Wii numbers.
Click to expand...

Handhelds in general (not named Vita of course) are pretty much hard to beat in Japan. But maybe it being a hybrid could really help in the motherland of handhelds. 2 popular handheld franchises (Pokemon and Fire Emblem) are already confirmed to be coming to the Switch and could really push the system to 3DS-level success and more are possibly coming, assuming supply is enough to satisfy demand sooner rather than later.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
duckroll said:
I don't think you REALLY see what I'm saying. It's not "if DQ sells 2 million then MHW has the chance to sell 2 million" at all. It is more like "If DQ easily sells over a million, then it bodes well that MHW won't be a complete disaster". MHW isn't going to sell millions. But if it can sell over 500k in Japan, that would already be really good considering the majority of the audience is expected to be overseas. Right now I don't think it has been proven at all that the PS4 is even capable of letting MHW do those numbers in Japan. FFXV really struggled to climb to a million, and nothing else released comes close. All big PS3 franchises have dropped significantly on the PS4.
Click to expand...
It feels more like the big hitters have dropped but at the expense of more consistent mid to low budget software.
 
D

duckroll

Member
DarkLordMalik said:
It feels more like the big hitters have dropped but at the expense of more consistent mid to low budget software.
Click to expand...

I think this was true of the PS3 resurgence in Japan, absolutely. But I don't think we've seen enough examples of this on PS4 to make a strong case either way yet. Persona 5 and Nier Automata are on the up and up for sure, but then stuff like Yakuza and Gundam have dropped too. The market is still in a sort of flux, with the future of console software in question.
 
C

casiopao

Member
duckroll said:
I think this was true of the PS3 resurgence in Japan, absolutely. But I don't think we've seen enough examples of this on PS4 to make a strong case either way yet. Persona 4 and Nier Automata are on the up and up for sure, but then stuff like Yakuza and Gundam have dropped too. The market is still in a sort of flux, with the future of console software in question.
Click to expand...

I can't remember perfectly but did not Tales on PS4 also underperform?

The latest Valkyria Revolution and Star Ocean V also bomba quite badly.

Not sure on any other title though.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
casiopao said:
Is it going to be ps4 only though?
Click to expand...

I can also see it being on switch guess we got to wait and see what they do .
Would be the first time a Main line tales game come out on 2 systems at the same time unless i remember wrong .
Knowing Bandai Namco i don't expect tales to push PS4 tech either way.
 
C

casiopao

Member
gundamkyoukai said:
I can also see it being on switch guess we got to wait and see what they do .
Would be the first time a Main line tales game come out on 2 systems at the same time unless i remember wrong .
Knowing Bandai Namco i don't expect tales to push PS4 tech either way .
Click to expand...

I am actually thinking about Vita and PC lol. But Switch should also be considered considering its success right now.
 
C

casiopao

Member
Zedark said:
No, they did come to PS3, but not Vita.
Click to expand...

Ahh i thought the port is PSV lol. It is PS3.

Had hard time seeing Switch getting mainline tales here though unless Bamco feel that giving Switch the same Tales as PS4 is going to be good enough to slow down the decline for the series.
 
L

LordKano

Member
I'd say it depends on the nature of that mysterious Switch Tales Of game. If it get delayed out of this FY, it will most likely be the next mainline title.

I don't see it being a port of Berseria this late. Unless it's a collection with Zestiria.
 
G

ggx2ac

Member
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/software/feature/akeaka.html

Top 20 Neo Geo titles on Switch (in Japan?) from March to July:

1) Metal Slug 3
2) King of Fighters '98
3) Metal Slug
4) Samurai Showdown IV
5) King of Fighters '99
6) King of Fighters '94
7) Metal Slug 2
8) Blazing Star
9) Alpha Mission 2
10) World Heroes Perfect
11) Garou: Mark of the Wolves
12) Waku Waku 7
13) Fatal Fury Special
14) Shock Troopers
15) Shock Troopers 2nd Squad
16) Magical Drop 2
17) Last Resort
18) Neo Turf Masters
19) NAM-1975
20) Fatal Fury

Note: There are currently 26 Neo Geo titles available on Switch.
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
duckroll said:
I don't think you REALLY see what I'm saying. It's not "if DQ sells 2 million then MHW has the chance to sell 2 million" at all. It is more like "If DQ easily sells over a million, then it bodes well that MHW won't be a complete disaster". MHW isn't going to sell millions. But if it can sell over 500k in Japan, that would already be really good considering the majority of the audience is expected to be overseas. Right now I don't think it has been proven at all that the PS4 is even capable of letting MHW do those numbers in Japan. FFXV really struggled to climb to a million, and nothing else released comes close. All big PS3 franchises have dropped significantly on the PS4.
Click to expand...
Okay then so it seems we agree. I was hung up on 'million selling' assuming you meant MHW would easily sell that if DQ did.
 
L

L~A

Member
Edit: damn, ninja'ed. Oh well, that'll teach me to refresh the page before posting, ha ha.
At least I included the dates :p

Top 20 ACA NeoGeo titles on Switch (March 3rd to July)

  1. Metal Slug 3 (03.3.2017)
  2. The King of Fighters '98 (03.3.2017)
  3. Metal Slug (30.3.2017)
  4. Samurai Shodown IV (13.4.2017)
  5. The King of Fighters '99 (25.5.2017)
  6. The King of Fighters '94 (16.3.2017)
  7. Metal Slug 2 (06.7.2017)
  8. Blazing Star (02.05.2017)
  9. Alpha Mission II (06.4.2017)
  10. World Heroes Perfect (03.3.2017)
  11. Garou: Mark of the Wolves (11.5.2017)
  12. Waku Waku 7 (03.3.2017)
  13. Fatal Fury Special (13.7.2017)
  14. Shock Troopers (03.3.2017)
  15. Shock Troopers: Second Squad (08.6.2017)
  16. Magical Drop 2 (29.6.2017)
  17. Last Resort (01.6.2017)
  18. Neo Turf Masters (23.3.2017)
  19. NAM-1975
  20. Fatal Fury: The King of Fighters (23.4.2017)

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/software/feature/akeaka.html
 
D

duckroll

Member
D.Lo said:
Okay then so it seems we agree. I was hung up on 'million selling' assuming you meant MHW would easily sell that if DQ did.
Click to expand...

And I was trying hard to explain that it is not a -comparison- of sales, but rather that DQ would be a useful metric in determining how alive the PS4 is in Japan! The high end console market in Japan is is very real danger. I think anyone who follows sales and market movement will see that.
 
R

Rymuth

Member
Arzehn said:
So Breath of Fire 6 servers are shutting down on Sept 27, 2017.
http://cog-members.bof6.jp/sp/news/a_529.html

RIP
Click to expand...

oQlQve2.gif
 
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