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[Moor-Angol]

weekly numbers next few weeks should be interesting

100 units!!

The problem is I'm seeing more people coming than the previous times, despite the rain

 

[ggx2ac]

Is there's any franchise that resonate with the mainstream audience in the West with a distinctive "Japanese" aesthetics? It doesn't matter how we define this, the average audience look at Dragon Quest and think it's one of those Japanese games.

The only one I know of that broke through this barrier and goes fully international is Pokemon when it becomes a cultural phenomenon. All other surviving, and seemingly declining, heavyweights are western-centric, right down to race of the Protagonist. The likes of Resident Evil, Final Fantasy etc.

I like to think the western market preferences has shift considerably since 2009 in terms of aesthetic and gameplay appeal. No matter which platform DQ XI hits, I'll be expecting it to do worst than 9 did in today's age.

Persona could at the very least tap in on the anime crowd ( like Neptunia ), it also swing out of the bat with stellar critical reception, positive words-of-mouth from the previous game and unique stylish UI aesthetics overhaul. NieR has a cult-following of Yoko Taro + Platinum Games and good critical reception too.

What does Dragon Quest have?

Barely any kind of cult-following from my understanding. It feels like more people on here care about what platform Dragon Quest hits rather than the games themselves.

I don't see fan artwork threads like with Nier Automata.

The only recognisable things for Dragon Quest are the theme song (Which sounds like an anthem), the mascot (Slime) and Akira Toriyama's art style.

The fact that the game is a classic turn based game also wouldn't resonate well with some people here as I'm reminded of threads about turn based JRPGs being archaic. lol

 

[Fisico]

I'm talking about the ps4. People who have a ps4 are probably used to multiplayer. and I never said anything about reaching 2 million. The game will primary focus on making up the sales in the west.

Ok fine, but Datschge was clearly talking about Japan market so was your previous post, and nothing in the post I quoted from you

If you want to talk about western sales or make it an argument somehow you'll have to mention it explicitely because we're in a japanese sales thread mostly (but not only) talking about japanese sales.

 

[jnWake]

It's hard to predict whether a game will suddenly find success on the west now, even if we've had some surprising cases like Nier and Persona 5 lately.

One thing that makes me slightly doubtul about DQ is that both Nier and Persona 5 have a much more modern/stylish look next to DQ's somewhat traditional style. Both Nier and Persona managed to capture people's attention with their style and I'm not convinced Dragon Quest will. However, if SQ pushes it and it gets released on a good date (which isn't that hard since we have many slow months per year) then it has a chance at selling well.

 

[Skullwaker]

If the Switch version of DQXI is localized I'll definitely get it. I don't have much experience with the series other than the DQVIII port on the 3DS, but I enjoyed what I played of that.

And honestly I prefer turn-based RPGs to action RPGs typically (Xenoblade being an exception). As long as they aren't overly padded or grind-heavy.

 

[Branduil]

Nier and Persona also had the waifus/husbandos thing going for them, i.e. tons of shipping and fanart. I wouldn't expect Dragon Quest to find that kind of success.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Even with 100 units available I didn't win -_-

Splatoon 2 bundle units available list :

Ikebukuro　500
Yurakucho　500
Shibuya　100
AKIBA　200
Tachikawa　100
Hachijoji 100
Sapporo　200
Fukuoka somewhere　100


I expect big numbers this week

 

[MoonFrog]

If the Switch version of DQXI is localized I'll definitely get it. I don't have much experience with the series other than the DQVIII port on the 3DS, but I enjoyed what I played of that.

And honestly I prefer turn-based RPGs to action RPGs typically (Xenoblade being an exception). As long as they aren't overly padded or grind-heavy.

You can play 4-9 on a western 3DS. 10 too in Japan.

I think smart phone has 1-8.

It is a really great series. 1-4 at least are also pretty quick games. (If you want not-too-padded turn-based, older games are less padded and there are a plethora of remakes with SNES+ QoL).

Nier and Persona also had the waifus/husbandos thing going for them, i.e. tons of shipping and fanart. I wouldn't expect Dragon Quest to find that kind of success.

I mean, DQXI has attractive characters too, but yeah. This is kind of what I avoided saying above, but sometimes I wonder if DQ is too mainstream and all-ages for the western JRPG audience. But then again Pokemon and it is not like the games you mention do particularly better than DQ has done in the past.

Even with 100 units available I didn't win -_-

Splatoon 2 bundle units available list :

Ikebukuro　500
Yurakucho　500
Shibuya　100
AKIBA　200
Tachikawa　100
Hachijoji 100
Sapporo　200
Fukuoka somewhere　100


I expect big numbers this week

about the first bit, but I hope the numbers are indeed good this week.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Even with 100 units available I didn't win -_-

Splatoon 2 bundle units available list :

Ikebukuro　500
Yurakucho　500
Shibuya　100
AKIBA　200
Tachikawa　100
Hachijoji 100
Sapporo　200
Fukuoka somewhere　100


I expect big numbers this week

That is alot

 

[hiska-kun]

Yeah, 500 consoles in Yarukucho

 

[MANUELF]

Yeah, 500 consoles in Yarukucho

Over 2k tickets were handed in a hour O.O

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

We looking at 75k possibly?
500 is a lot more than normal lol.

 

[Ōkami]

They said stock would increase around this time, you guys just wouldn't believe.

Between all the 3DS SKUs, the Dragon Quest XI bundles and the white PS4 this could be a huge week for hardware, 3DS and PS4 should sell some 100k each, at least.

 

[Ex-Psych]

Out of curiosity is there a limit to how high the number of units can be supplied through lottery?

Like holding hostage a thousand Switch units to use for lottery?

 

[hiska-kun]

Even with 100 units available I didn't win -_-

Splatoon 2 bundle units available list :

Ikebukuro　500
Yurakucho　500
Shibuya　100
AKIBA　200
Tachikawa　100
Hachijoji 100
Sapporo　200
Fukuoka somewhere　100


I expect big numbers this week

You will have high chances if you go to Yurakucho or Ikebukuro. Just look, 2000 wristbands for 500 consoles means around 25% of chances to win.
More than 1000 wristbands in Omiya for 100 consoles means less than 10% chances.

 

[Skullwaker]

You can play 4-9 on a western 3DS. 10 too in Japan.

I think smart phone has 1-8.

It is a really great series. 1-4 at least are also pretty quick games. (If you want not-too-padded turn-based, older games are less padded and there are a plethora of remakes with SNES+ QoL).

Yeah I've been interested in picking up some of the DS remakes. I'm particularly interested in DQV due to the mechanic of it taking place over the course of the main character's life. I really like that. I've also been interested in DQIX and DQVII 3DS. The only reason I didn't pick up the latter is because I've heard it's very long.
____________

I'm surprised there are so many Switch units available this week. I wonder if we could be looking at a 50k+ week, which wouldn't be too bad of a drop at all.

 

[MoonFrog]

Yeah I've been interested in picking up some of the DS remakes. I'm particularly interested in DQV due to the mechanic of it taking place over the course of the main character's life. I really like that. I've also been interested in DQIX and DQVII 3DS. The only reason I didn't pick up the latter is because I've heard it's very long.
____________

I'm surprised there are so many Switch units available this week. I wonder if we could be looking at a 50k+ week, which wouldn't be too bad of a drop at all.

DQV is great. It isn't long either iirc. It shares with VIII a stronger focus on the central cast, so that might be a good next move.

Dragon Quest does interesting things with story, like doing the life story of the main character in V or doing the story of your team-mates (including the life of JRPG NPC standbys, like the merchant and the palace guard) in IV.

 

[Mory Dunz]

They said stock would increase around this time, you guys just wouldn't believe.

Between all the 3DS SKUs, the Dragon Quest XI bundles and the white PS4 this could be a huge week for hardware, 3DS and PS4 should sell some 100k each, at least.

3DS stock will increase this week?

 

[Dash Kappei]

Even with 100 units available I didn't win -_-

Splatoon 2 bundle units available list :

Ikebukuro　500
Yurakucho　500
Shibuya　100
AKIBA　200
Tachikawa　100
Hachijoji 100
Sapporo　200
Fukuoka somewhere　100


I expect big numbers this week

Why do you even want one so bad? You always end up hating the Nintendo platforms you buy anyway... what was the last time you enjoyed one, first couple of years of GCN?

 

[Skullwaker]

DQV is great. It isn't long either iirc. It shares with VIII a stronger focus on the central cast, so that might be a good next move.

Dragon Quest does interesting things with story, like doing the life story of the main character in V or doing the story of your team-mates (including the life of JRPG NPC standbys, like the merchant and the palace guard) in IV.

Yeah I like when each game has something about it that makes it special or unique. That's something about the FF series that I've always respected as well, even though I've never been able to get into those games as much as I've wanted, aside from FFXIV which I became quite addicted to at one point.

 

[Chris1964]

+-----------------+-----+---------+---------+---------+
|      Week       | BIC |   M-C   |   FAM   |   DEN   |
+-----------------+-----+---------+---------+---------+
| May 22 - May 28 |  93 |  27.146 |  27.440 |  24.612 |
| May 29 - Jun 04 |  84 |  23.524 |  25.274 |  24.735 |
| Jun 05 - Jun 11 |  83 |  27.291 |  28.293 |  29.020 |
| Jun 12 - Jun 18 |  99 |  37.709 |  49.440 |  43.850 |
| Jun 19 - Jun 25 |  59 |  22.361 |  26.964 |  22.495 |
| Jun 26 - Jul 02 |  54 |  25.805 |  24.736 |  25.442 |
| Jul 03 - Jul 09 | 120 |  26.256 |  36.143 |  32.769 |
| Jul 10 - Jul 16 |  63 |  31.906 |  25.154 |  24.462 |
| Jul 17 - Jul 23 | 138+|  98.999 | 102.581 |  93.611 |
| Jul 24 - Jul 30 | 500 |         |         |         |
+-----------------+-----+---------+---------+---------+

500 consoles is a number comparable to last week.
If Bic Camera followed Japanese trend the preordered Switch bundles for Splatoon launch were something 2:1 comparing to those at lotteries.

 

[Mory Dunz]

If stock stays decent for a few weeks, wonder if we'll get increases for other games

 

[suicreeps]

Wonder if they're gonna hold stock for Monster Hunter bundles or just keep pushing them out the door constantly.

 

[Chris1964]

Yeah, 500 consoles in Yarukucho

And all of them bundles?
___

Obon is at the end of August / beginning of September.

Nintendo stated production has raised and supply will be better for July and August. Even if this week they wanted to balance increases of 3DS and PS4 hw with big Switch shipments I don't see returning to low numbers anytime soon.

 

[Branduil]

I mean, DQXI has attractive characters too, but yeah. This is kind of what I avoided saying above, but sometimes I wonder if DQ is too mainstream and all-ages for the western JRPG audience. But then again Pokemon and it is not like the games you mention do particularly better than DQ has done in the past.

Pokemon is a 20+ years established franchise though, with tons of merchandise and supporting media.

Spoiler

And it also has waifus now.

There's just no history in the west with Dragon Quest, which makes it a hard sell, even putting aside it being the quintessential turn-based old-school JRPG. The selling point essentially becomes "this is the most popular game series in Japan" which most people would respond to with a shrug. And even in Japan a huge part of its appeal is that childhood nostalgia, which is again, nonexistent in the west.

Making Dragon Quest a truly successful franchise in the west will require a lot more work than just "the game looks better now because it's on the PS4." I don't think it's impossible- there's a lot of attraction to old-school style games these days- but the lack of a history in the west with the franchise just makes it that much more difficult. I think a Switch localization would probably have the best chance of breaking out, just because the demographic the Switch appeals to(people who love retro-style games on sleek modern hardware, in particular) are the most likely to give it a shot.

 

[Chauzu]

Really hope this indicates a very increased baseline for the rest of the year in terms of HW sales for Switch.

 

[Jon Carter]

Are lotteries a new thing by the way? Did they exist in the Wii era?

 

[Zedark]

These huge numbers for other stores also rhyme with the multiple restocks amazon Japan had this week. I feel we are going to get a big number this week. Hopefully it'll be the beginning of a higher baseline for Switch!

 

[hiska-kun]

And all of them bundles?
___

Obon is at the end of August / beginning of September.

Nintendo stated production has raised and supply will be better for July and August. Even if this week they wanted to balance increases of 3DS and PS4 hw with big Switch shipments I don't see returning to low numbers anytime soon.

In Yurakucho all bundles (and Ikebukuro, Shibuya, Akihabara...).

Here the list of shops with bundles and the list with stanadole consoles.

http://www.biccamera.co.jp/shopguide/news/nintendo_switch/index.html

 

[Skullwaker]

Switch is definitely gonna need that higher baseline to have a chance against 3DS launch aligned, since it started to do very well after its price drop. Consistent 50k+ weeks until holidays would be nice.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Man I tend to forget Nintendo is Japanese. It's like their games are in a different category compared to other Japanese games.

 

[Celine]

Man I tend to forget Nintendo is Japanese. It's like their games are in a different category compared to other Japanese games.

It's the most japanese videogame company but at the same time the most focused to create products for all the ages, genres and cultures.
Aleo due to owning an hardware platform they are somewhat living in a bubble outside the mainstream console gamimg.

 

[Moor-Angol]

You will have high chances if you go to Yurakucho or Ikebukuro. Just look, 2000 wristbands for 500 consoles means around 25% of chances to win.
More than 1000 wristbands in Omiya for 100 consoles means less than 10% chances.

I was thinking about that but this would mean I have to wake up at 7:00 -_-
Honestly I'm not in a hurry to get Switch, and my 7800pt will expire in 1 year, if I get it it's ok, but I don't wanna renounce to some hours of rest one of the 2 days I can sleep more than 5 hours...

 

[Moor-Angol]

Are lotteries a new thing by the way? Did they exist in the Wii era?

No, I remember that when I bought DSLite I run through Yodobashi Yokohama and there was a girl following me; at that time (august 2006 I think) there were just lines, but raffles are made just by Bic Camera actually afaik

 

[Aostia]

I was thinking about that but this would mean I have to wake up at 7:00 -_-
Honestly I'm not in a hurry to get Switch, and my 7800pt will expire in 1 year, if I get it it's ok, but I don't wanna renounce to some hours of rest one of the 2 days I can sleep more than 5 hours...

Aren't you coming back to Italy anytime soon for a vacation?
Here you can find it.
Not as easily as a normal system.
But is doable

 

[Moor-Angol]

Aren't you coming back to Italy anytime soon for a vacation?
Here you can find it.
Not as easily as a normal system.
But is doable

the point is : I'd buy at bic camera cause I have 7800pt
I'm not sure I can find Switch in Italy for €199, the price I'd pay here with point card discount
No way I pay 32k yen or €300 for Switch

 

[ksamedi]

It's the most japanese videogame company but at the same time the most focused to create products for all the ages, genres and cultures.
Aleo due to owning an hardware platform they are somewhat living in a bubble outside the mainstream console gamimg.

They cwrtainly have an advantage as a hardware and software company, but they kind of always know how to create hit games for the Japanese market even on failing consoles.

 

[TheLegendaryN]

the point is : I'd buy at bic camera cause I have 7800pt
I'm not sure I can find Switch in Italy for €199, the price I'd pay here with point card discount
No way I pay 32k yen or €300 for Switch

It's €330 here, even.
If you don't mind waiting a little longer, I'd choose the discount in Japan yeah.

 

[Aostia]

the point is : I'd buy at bic camera cause I have 7800pt
I'm not sure I can find Switch in Italy for €199, the price I'd pay here with point card discount
No way I pay 32k yen or €300 for Switch

That make sense!

 

[Datschge]

Are lotteries a new thing by the way? Did they exist in the Wii era?

Both Nintendo DS and Wii were short in supply at times in Japan, and searching for old reports on Google (limit result to before e.g. 2008) shows they indeed did lotteries in those cases as well.

 

[Zedark]

And to round off the week, it looks like amazon Japan had a fourth restock this week: https://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/movers-and-shakers/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsms#1

Seems a little smaller than earlier restocks this week, but still the amount of restock suggests a large restock for the week in total.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Hopefully this is a sign of Nintendo solving the shortages. Was it solely on this part that they were competing with Apple and others for?

 

[KAORIII]

PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 493386
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 357910
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 75310
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 172151
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 80251

 

[Zedark]

Hopefully this is a sign of Nintendo solving the shortages. Was it solely on this part that they were competing with Apple and others for?

We don't actually know for sure what part they were competing on, but the component that makes most sense was the internal memory since there were many reports about shortages even before the Switch specific report about Nintendo struggling due to Apple. Another part they share is the linear actuators for the HD rumble, which could also be (one of) the culprit(s), which could, incidentally, also explain the shortage of additional joy-cons we know of.

 

[KtSlime]

If Nintendo can get enough out there, they are approaching a week where they would be able to surpass both the 3DS and NDS launch aligned in sales aren't they? Don't think they can maintain it after that however.

 

[Alrus]

If Nintendo can get enough out there, they are approaching a week where they would be able to surpass both the 3DS and NDS launch aligned in sales aren't they? Don't think they can maintain it after that however.

The 3DS is about to see a huge jump in weekly sales so unless they somehow manage to vastly improve shipment this wouldn't last yeah.

 

[schuelma]

The 3DS is about to see a huge jump in weekly sales so unless they somehow manage to vastly improve shipment this wouldn't last yeah.

And to kind of piggyback off of that, the 3DS holiday lineup in Japan that first year ended up being very stellar- MK7, SM3DL, MH3G, plus Inazuma Eleven.

Right now I don't see the same software lineup for Switch.

 

[Zedark]

If Nintendo can get enough out there, they are approaching a week where they would be able to surpass both the 3DS and NDS launch aligned in sales aren't they? Don't think they can maintain it after that however.

Borrowing from hiska-kun

Switch vs 3DS

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |    Nintendo 3DS   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2011/02/26)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - 3DS  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  19|   30.233|1.188.335|   26.256|1.066.081|      -122.254|
|  20|   22.943|1.211.278|   31.906|1.097.987|      -113.291|
|  21|   46.637|1.257.915|   98.999|1.196.986|       -60.929|
|  22|   31.826|1.289.741|         |         |              |
|  23|   16.415|1.306.156|         |         |              |
|  24|    4.132|1.310.288|         |         |              |
|  25|  196.077|1.506.365|         |         |              |
|  26|  105.639|1.612.004|         |         |              |
|  27|   60.781|1.672.785|         |         |              |
|  28|   54.744|1.727.529|         |         |              |
|  29|   49.076|1.776.605|         |         |              |
|  30|   58.837|1.835.442|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Switch has three weeks ahead of it where 3DS is dropping massively, so Switch should overtake 3DS at the third week at least as it needs to sell "only" 110k or so units to do that. After that, two massive weeks for 3DS mean that Switch will almost certainly be behind again, and after that it really is impossible to tell at this moment imo.

And to kind of piggyback off of that, the 3DS holiday lineup in Japan that first year ended up being very stellar- MK7, SM3DL, MH3G, plus Inazuma Eleven.

Right now I don't see the same software lineup for Switch.

But then again, MK8D is on the system, there is a very popular Zelda game, a big Mario 3D game launches this fall, and Splatoon 2 is very likely bigger than MH3U even (edit: MH3U sold 2.6 million, which Splatoon 2 will surpass imo). I think Switch has the pent up demand behind it to keep pace with or even surpass the 3DS during the holidays if by some miracle Nintendo finds the stock to facilitate it.

 

[jonno394]

And to kind of piggyback off of that, the 3DS holiday lineup in Japan that first year ended up being very stellar- MK7, SM3DL, MH3G, plus Inazuma Eleven.

Right now I don't see the same software lineup for Switch.

Totally agree, but if demand outpaces supply up until Christmas and suddenly Nintendo drop 1m in December, they could easily still that many. (3ds sold around that amount in its first December).

If supply increases over the rest of the year and demand levels out, i still see Nintendo getting the big traditional holiday boost and selling 600k+.

 

[Alrus]

3DS's first december was pretty insane iirc. It got one of the biggest non launch week for a system ever. Edit : It did two 350k+ weeks then reached 480k which is massive.

Also think we're going to see some announcement for November and December, outside of Xenoblade 2 (which isn't really major as far as we know), there's absolutely nothing right now...