Yeah could be. Definitely hard to really predict just how much unmet demand there is currently and will be in 3 months. And of course Japan tends to have much earlier announcement to release cycles so there could still be decent software coming.
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Yeah could be. Definitely hard to really predict just how much unmet demand there is currently and will be in 3 months. And of course Japan tends to have much earlier announcement to release cycles so there could still be decent software coming.
TheLegendaryN
Member
The holiday line-up was great and there was finally Mario on the system, but I think the price drop had the biggest impact.
Switch is behind pre cut 3ds
OK it is supply constrained but I think that we can imagine those lost sales to make up for the gap with the pre cut 3ds only
When we will have post price cut 3ds numbers kick in...the comparison will clearly show how the 3ds still was a dedicated videogame era system (I think those days are gone ditto)
OK it is supply constrained but I think that we can imagine those lost sales to make up for the gap with the pre cut 3ds only
When we will have post price cut 3ds numbers kick in...the comparison will clearly show how the 3ds still was a dedicated videogame era system (I think those days are gone ditto)
It's only 60k behind, you really didn't think this through.
I'm sorry- what are you trying to say here?
The gap is only 60k, though. You really think 3000 people line up for 250 consoles at certain stores in Splatoon 2 week, and there were still massive, like factor 10 ccomared to available units, lines at different locations for this week too, yet the difference between supply and demand is only 60k? I don't agree with that. Not only that, but we also have the Switch scalpers prices rising to over 20k Yen above the MSRP. That doesn't happen when supply is anywhere near demand.
Aostia never believed in the Switch success before launch.
I doubt he will start now, supply constraints or not.
TheLegendaryN
Member
The question isn't if the demand for Switch meets 3DS' 2011 sales, the question is if Nintendo's supply will be sufficient. For the 9 remaining weeks in the table, the Switch needs 70k/wk to get on 3DS levels. The lotteries give a lot of hope for big sales this week, so it'll probably need less than a 70k/wk after that. But do we see Nintendo maintaining a 50k+/wk baseline for the Switch in the second week of August and beyond?
Skittzo0413
Member
One of the biggest problems with Dragon Quest in the west is that it's almost always treated as an afterthought. They actually need to market it at the same time they market the Japanese release, maybe even bring it to E3. I'm sure that will only help so much but it's a start. The games are very well made, very charming, and would likely be well received as traditional full experiences in today's GaaS market.
They just need to treat the west as an actual potential customer base rather than a massive afterthought.
He's talking pre price cut. Implying that the pent up demand only amounts to 60k consoles.
Edit: Being needlessly antagonistic, I'm sorry.
Pretty much my thought about it aswell they need to threat it good again like VIII ps2 and IX on ds and be serious about it (these 2 sold well over a 1 million + in the west).
The series has a charm that feels simular some of the Nintendo games and Kingdom Hearts for example have so it certainly can have some marketshare in the west if marketed right or treated seriously instead of a afterthought.
VIII was sold as a pack in with the FFXII demo. IX was handled not by SE but Nintendo.
Nintendo, Enix, Square-Enix, and then Nintendo again tried tons of strategies to get DQ to become popular in the US, and so far non of them moved as many units as were hoped.
I just don't see what they can do to get it to become popular.
Edit:
I don't follow NPD numbers, but I heard VII on 3DS did not sell that well, and that was after years of people begging Nintendo to bring it over. I have a US copy for PlayStation of Dragon Warrior 7, that cost me a bunch of money because few were released in the US. That game basically failed twice.
Nintendo, Enix, Square-Enix, and then Nintendo again tried tons of strategies to get DQ to become popular in the US, and so far non of them moved as many units as were hoped.
I just don't see what they can do to get it to become popular.
Edit:
I don't follow NPD numbers, but I heard VII on 3DS did not sell that well, and that was after years of people begging Nintendo to bring it over. I have a US copy for PlayStation of Dragon Warrior 7, that cost me a bunch of money because few were released in the US. That game basically failed twice.
Make it an Action Rpg like the first iteration of DQ IX
I hate to say it but in order for it to sell the numbers they want in the US, they'll have to go for a more mature and realistic look, think skyrim, witcher, or souls games
as it is, Dragon Quest belongs in a certain subset of colorful, lighthearted (on the surface at least) jRPGs, to which games like Nino Kuni 2 and Xenoblade 2 belong too.
none of which will sell well in the US.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
I find it odd that im the only person pointing out that the quality of the game is the key to its success in the west. Everyone is pretending like turn based anime style RPGs cant sell, even though we just had a turn based anime style RPG sell over a million units just a couple of months ago.
Review scores are obviously what propelled Nier, Nioh, and Persona. There's no link at all between those 3 games other than high review scores, they're all completely different.
Review scores are obviously what propelled Nier, Nioh, and Persona. There's no link at all between those 3 games other than high review scores, they're all completely different.
Make it an Action Rpg like the first iteration of DQ IX
Let's not even joke that way.
I can see what you are saying, but cannot agree, because that would mean I think that DQ1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 were bad games because they all way undersold what they should have based on the size of the market.
It is a matter of taste, not quality.
Why do you keep trying to link them? All of them had plenty of other factors beside reviews making them successes. I'm not saying review aren't important, but there's other reasons those game have been successful.
Plus previous DQ had good reviews too, didn't really help them.
9 is definitely a bad game. 8's a mediocre one at best. Never trust Level5 to make a good RPG.
I honestly can't figure that sentence out. I think Aostia is saying 3DS numbers are impossible for Switch because of reasons.
lol "publishers". Keep clinging to that single unrelated figure from EA.
1.8m puts FFV's digital ratio well under 20-30% btw, at only 13%. So much for your own "maths".
While this is true, I think 9 was better than 8, although 8 was very story driven so I know why people like it.
Anyway, both the Level5 DQ games are the better selling DQ games in the west, so it definitely is not quality that is related to sales.
Skullwaker
Member
So Switch won't outsell 3DS because it's not a "dedicated video game era system"?
Whatever that means?
Whatever that means?
I think he's saying that we're in a post-console market now so that level of success is simply unattainable.
Do we have data for the growth of the mobile market in Japan over the past decade or so? Would be interesting to see this, and how much of that process encapsulates the 3DS lifetime.
I guess he doesn't get that 3DS was also launched post smartphone too. I don't have figures, but I'd be hard pressed to say that Japan wasn't near full smartphone adoption by 2011.
I don't think 8 and 9 are bad games, but yeah I agree, Level 5 is not a good JRPG developer, and it's even more obvious when they are not under the helm of Horii.
First of all, quality is a much more subjective topic than artstyle, battle system or waifus (the existence of wiafus, not who's the best waifu). You are citing review scores, but I'd say half of the times, the reviewers don't know jack shit when they are reviewing a JRPG. They'd give utterly mediocre games like FE Awakening, Ni no Kuni, and Trails of Cold Steel 2 high score for god knows why. Instead of "quality", I'd like to use the term "friendly to reviewers", because I can see why those games get good score, but I strongly disagree.
Not one or the other, both matter.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Different time, different platforms, different market.
How well did Nier and Persona do in the west? ~1 million? DQs already done that before. I don't see it having trouble reaching those numbers again if it scores well and a bit more of it comes over multiplatform.
What's odd to me is "why doesn't it do better than that?" It's a less niche product in design sensibilities.
What's odd to me is "why doesn't it do better than that?" It's a less niche product in design sensibilities.
You are right, quality always matters, however most DQ games have quality is spades.
Great, can't wait to see DQ game fail a 20th time in the west... You know what they always say, the 20th time is a charm. /s
Really? Then tell me why DQ is so popular in Japan but not so in the west? The quality of the game changes during localization? Or people in different regions have different tastes?
Yo what
lwilliams3
Member
We don't have enough info to conclude anything like that due to the Switch being supply limited.
Posting again here for the new page:
PS4 vs PS3 (PS4 reached 5 millions)
Code:------------------------------------------------------------- | | PlayStation 3 | PlayStation 4 | Difference | | | (2006/11/11) | (2014/02/22) | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | PS4 - PS3 | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| | 177| 50.448|4.925.582| 29.771|4.935.270| 9.688| | 178| 38.877|4.964.459| 36.218|4.971.488| 7.029| | 179| 28.973|4.993.432| 30.878|5.002.366| 8.934| | 180| 25.590|5.019.022| | | | | 181| 25.629|5.044.651| | | | | 182| 32.874|5.077.525| | | | | 183| 26.185|5.103.710| | | | | 184| 20.463|5.124.173| | | | | 185| 19.075|5.143.248| | | | | 186| 20.987|5.164.235| | | | | 187| 18.951|5.183.186| | | | | 187| 17.676|5.200.862| | | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
Switch vs 3DS
Code:------------------------------------------------------------- | | Nintendo 3DS | Nintendo Switch | Difference | | | (2011/02/26) | (2017/03/03) | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | NSW - 3DS | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| | 19| 30.233|1.188.335| 26.256|1.066.081| -122.254| | 20| 22.943|1.211.278| 31.906|1.097.987| -113.291| | 21| 46.637|1.257.915| 98.999|1.196.986| -60.929| | 22| 31.826|1.289.741| | | | | 23| 16.415|1.306.156| | | | | 24| 4.132|1.310.288| | | | | 25| 196.077|1.506.365| | | | | 26| 105.639|1.612.004| | | | | 27| 60.781|1.672.785| | | | | 28| 54.744|1.727.529| | | | | 29| 49.076|1.776.605| | | | | 30| 58.837|1.835.442| | | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
MK8 DX vs MK8
Code:------------------------------------------------------------- | | Mario Kart 8 | Mario Kart 8 DX | Difference | | | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [NSW] (2017/04/28)| | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | MK8DX MK8 | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| | 1 | 325.892| 325.892| 284.823| 284.823| -41.069| | 2 | 73.051| 398.943| 90.652| 375.475| -23.468| | 3 | 42.261| 441.205| 36.440| 411.915| -29.290| | 4 | 28.112| 469.316| 28.781| 440.696| -28.620| | 5 | 23.520| 492.837| 26.993| 467.689| -25.148| | 6 | 19.386| 512.223| 20.984| 488.673| -23.550| | 7 | 15.143| 527.366| 16.596| 505.270| -22.096| | 8 | 14.992| 542.358| 16.822| 522.091| -20.267| | 9 | 18.129| 560.487| 13.545| 535.636| -24.851| | 10 | 18.067| 578.554| 14.423| 550.059| -28.495| | 11 | 20.860| 599.414| 13.436| 563.495| -35.919| | 12 | 28.221| 627.635| 11.554| 575.048| -52.587| | 13 | 12.075| 639.710| 12.980| 588.028| -51.682| | 14 | 11.148| 650.858| | | | | 15 | 8.221| 659.079| | | | | 16 | 6.839| 665.918| | | | | 17 | 6.396| 672.313| | | | | 18 | 5.936| 678.250| | | | | 19 | 4.517| 682.767| | | | | 20 | 3.996| 686.763| | | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
Despite the supply problem, the Switch can catch up to the 3DS as soon as next week if they do have another 100k+ shipment. Unfortunately for this comparison, the Switch will not be able to keep up with the 3DS shipments after the next couple of weeks. The Switch is not in a position to credit or discredit that theory.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
I'm open to suggestions why these niche games are selling so well all of a sudden. How many SMT/Persona games did it take to finally get to where P5 is now?
My theory is that we're getting alot less physical games on PS4 due to budget increases and many developers moving to mobile, and that makes these games alot easier to market and easier for word of mouth to do its thing. If you cross a certain metacritic line (about 85) thats when you start to see these previously niche franchises like Persona and Nier turn into million sellers.
I have yet to see a better explanation. P5 destroys the "anime/turn based" arguments.
You can't compare DQ and Persona because they're "anime" and turn based and say "see, same thing!"...
The combat in Persona is way less traditional and subdued than in DQ, and the anime style is totally different. It's also completely ignoring the very traditional "medieval" fantasy setting and the way most DQ games tell their story.
Clearly the critical reception played a big role but again, it's not the only thing that made the game a success.
The combat in Persona is way less traditional and subdued than in DQ, and the anime style is totally different. It's also completely ignoring the very traditional "medieval" fantasy setting and the way most DQ games tell their story.
Clearly the critical reception played a big role but again, it's not the only thing that made the game a success.
AcademicSaucer
Member
ArkhamFantasy
Member
We're just gonna have to agree to disagree on that.
Nothing fundamental changed from P4 to P5, the thing that changed was the market.
The only anime conversations in here are about why DQ doesn't sell better despite being a more mainstream sort of cartoon with all ages content as opposed to something like Persona, which is stylish as fuck but also tied to an anime life and dating simulation; and about how DQ isn't titillating enough and this is the problem.
I don't see posts about how it can't sell because of anime and turn-based, just posts trying to figure out where it fits relative to other games with those broad qualities.
I don't see posts about how it can't sell because of anime and turn-based, just posts trying to figure out where it fits relative to other games with those broad qualities.
Is it really "all of a sudden" though? P5 is a relative monster but P4G and SMTIV both also sold really well globally in previous years. A lot is being made of Nier Automata for SE now but Bravely Default pulled similar million+ sales several years earlier too. Keeping an eye on how JP games have done it's not really like the recent PS4 succeses are the start of any unheralded unforeseen trend here, even though it just had a handfull of 2017 releases do great. With both these publishers we saw previous games really building to success before.
Now we look at DQ and MH and wonder if they can finally break out in the west on PS4, but both were already western million sellers too in their previous installments (DQVIII/IX, MH4U). Western growth for both would mean multimillion sales levels now (2m+).
Notably, I think DQXI has a weak protagonist design
. Although I also think his blue-haired rival is a weak design in the generally strong bunch.But they are almost all cool. Except DQXI's half-assed Trunks.
DQV hero was awesome.
We've got a lot of DQIII and DQIV hero avatars in this site.
I think DQI hero looks cool too.
Skittzo0413
Member
I have not paid all that much attention to how Nier and Persona have been marketed to the west (Persona typically releases years later in the west I believe), but as a big DQ fan I've felt like SE will never even begin talking about a DQ coming west until several weeks/months after it's released in Japan. In the case of DQXI it happened on the day of release, which honestly feels like an improvement.
DQ has had decent sales in the west (1 million plus) in several instances before, but western releases remain an absolute afterthought and I think that treatment is a big part of why the sales might disappoint SE.
The way I read it is him saying we can make up those lost sales pre-3DS price cut but probably not after the price cut. So the pent up demand can certainly account for 60k+ but not like 200k+, which I personally disagree with. No idea what he meant by the videogame era system being gone, besides maybe the advent of mobile? Which was a big criticism/hurdle for the 3DS early on too, so I'm not sure how that makes sense.
DQ has had decent sales in the west (1 million plus) in several instances before, but western releases remain an absolute afterthought and I think that treatment is a big part of why the sales might disappoint SE.
The way I read it is him saying we can make up those lost sales pre-3DS price cut but probably not after the price cut. So the pent up demand can certainly account for 60k+ but not like 200k+, which I personally disagree with. No idea what he meant by the videogame era system being gone, besides maybe the advent of mobile? Which was a big criticism/hurdle for the 3DS early on too, so I'm not sure how that makes sense.
It's not like Ni no Kuni has engaging combat to begin with. Such a dreadful game.
DarkLordMalik
Member
8 is mediocre? Duckroll pls.
8 was one of the best JRPG that I played on PS2. Better than XII easily, which was given as demo.
I dont think this has to much with critical acclaim., Mostly when it comes to these types of things its about marketing, plattform and audience:
First off i think people are harping a bit too much about "its looks anime and its turnbased so its not gonna sell". Are most mobile games, which are far more succesfull in terms of played not turnbased? So it cant be that much of a problem. Also while stuff like FF is not really "anime", it also dont look like dark souls or witcher 3 so again, cant be that much of a problem. Not saying this thing cant be influences but not as much as people here are making them.
Second off i think it has to do with on which plattform/plattforms the game releases and the envorinment. So lets take for a example nier. Despite being very succesfull on pc. ps4 still outsold it despite the X time more stronger userbase. Also the marketing in this context is important, a lot of DQ XI marketing in japan (which i quite liked) were individual for the game. If you go to try this to market as an epic adventure here with no voice acting and a MC that look boring as fuck it is not gonna be do well.
The gist of distrubition and marketing, and also building off a brand, are things like that, thats why its not easy.
Edit: to make my point clear so while i am against the point of "oh looks like anime and its turnbased so it cant sell well" i am also saying that marketing and building audiences for such games are quite difficult, but no where near impossible
definitly agree with that
DarkLordMalik
Member
I am just waiting for Dragon Quest XI to release, Ship 1+ million in the West and then come back to this thread to see what excuse people have in mind for its success.
This talk is getting tiring by now after FFXV, Persona 5, Nier Automata and Nioh all achieved success on PS4. Yet people have a hard time accepting that PS4 has cultivated a market of Japanese game fans who value quality games.
3DS also attracted a sizeable market for Japanese games and this was seen with the success of games like Bravely Default. Same thing applies to PS4.
This talk is getting tiring by now after FFXV, Persona 5, Nier Automata and Nioh all achieved success on PS4. Yet people have a hard time accepting that PS4 has cultivated a market of Japanese game fans who value quality games.
3DS also attracted a sizeable market for Japanese games and this was seen with the success of games like Bravely Default. Same thing applies to PS4.