Gotdatmoney
Member
Why amazing?
One of the biggest games of the year and frankly of the generation is launching. How could you not be excited?
Why amazing?
We ain't ready for Monster Hinter World.
One of the biggest games of the year and frankly of the generation is launching. How could you not be excited?
PS3 never had arguably two of the biggest IPs in Japan. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter. If it had, then it should have sold more than what it did in the end after almost 8 years.Not sure what you mean because the PS3 actually had fairly steady sales later in its life. I agree though that PS4 has surpassed almost people's expectations this year and is performing quite well at the moment. I think it has a good chance at matching or slightly exceeding the PS3's life time sales. It won't be a huge success but it's not terrible either. It certainly looked like things could be a lot worse at the start of this gen.
Thanks for the detailed response. I apologize if it seemed like I was targeting you. You just stood out when reading those posts as I see you passionately following switch and it's performance and get a bit upset when anyone says anything negative about it. I have posted some dumb stuff back in the day and personal bias will most of the time cloud people's judgement so nothing to regret about lol.I feel it's better to answer to this post, I just don't want to appear like someone who's not ready to assume his own "responsibilities".
So...yes, it's true that you'll find several posts of mine being concerned about PS4's support from Japanese developers, especially before the console released due to how things were looking after E3 2013's major announcements. And honestly I kinda regret some of the posts I made in that period: even if I wanted to look at PS4's situation from a decently unbiased point of view, the surprising (to me at the time) lack of enough support appeared to me more concerning than what I thought in the long run. But years have passed, more time spent in sales threads / looking at historical and recent numbers, basically getting more experience to discuss about sales...all of this made me a (hopefully) better sales-ager, less biased than before. That's why I'm looking at the Switch's support situation differently than PS4's back then, by brining in a more detailed and analytical look at early announcements / early support for different recent platforms - because context is extremely relevant.
Still, it needs to be said that Switch and PS4 presented far different initial sales trends, which is also why several users (don't remember exactly who, but I suppose I was among them as well) became more worried about Japanese's support as post-launch sales went by: I don't think we need to remember how awful and incredibly front-loaded PS4 sales have been in its first year. PS4 wasn't just a mediocre-selling console, it was an historically low selling console, and even if Western sales were already great at those times, it wasn't out-of-the-ordinary to be worried about less Western-focused (or even general) support for the system, especially from specific developers.
So, yes: different situations, but I still partially regret my behaviour on the matter.
Hopefully this is clear enough.
PS3 never had arguably two of the biggest IPs in Japan. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter. If it had, then it should have sold more than what it did in the end after almost 8 years.
The situation is different for PS4 so of course as it now has the holy trinity (Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy) working in its favor. Too bad Capcom decided to kill Resident Evil otherwise if they could have stuck with RE6 style, maybe we could have another potential 500k+ release for PS4.
I don't think DQXI sales will be particularly surprising next week, but I'm interested in its legs.
What do you think it'll sell then? Predictions for DQ11 have varied wildly especially if you actually go back prior to when pre orders started. I'm not expecting a huge surprise but I think there is a pretty big range for what could happen.
Yokai-Watch has never been on console, neither it has proven its worth there. Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest have all been on consoles hence why I consider these the most important third party IPs for consoles.I thought the holy trinity would be DQ, MH and YW. FF can barely do a million now, even a crumbling YW is ahead of that.
PS4 is 3+ years old by now and Switch is still new. What do you think should be selling more?PS4 averages around 28,000 a week (LTD ÷ Weeks of availability)
If Ethomaz thinks the PS4 is doing great in Japan, what does this mean for the Switch? It was consistently selling around 25k per week prior to Splatoon 2's launch.
I just don't think the software support for PS3 is anywhere comparable to PS4 during similar time frame. Of course, you can say the legs were steady but Sony was also more aggressive with price cuts when it comes to PS3.I agree with the sentiment that the PS4 probably has more big titles coming towards the end of its life span. All I really disagreed with was the idea that the PS3 didn't have steady sales towards the end of its life span. It actually had quite a few good years towards the end of its run. It was the slow start that held it back more than anything.
I think I predicted 1.8M total, with 1M 3DS. That was before YSO but I'm still holding to it. The biggest change I could see is PS4 version being closer to the million than I thought.
But the legs should be interesting. DQIX sold like 2 millions post-launch IIRC, and I'm not expecting the same amount at all, without counting the Switch version.
MH was never huge on consoles though. Stuff like RE has historically been bigger. I'm not sure if MHW will pass a million either.Yokai-Watch has never been on console, neither it has proven its worth there. Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest have all been on consoles hence why I consider these the most important third party IPs for consoles.
Final Fantasy XV might have failed to reach a million but it will remain in the top selling game for the life time of PS4, which says a lot about it. Dragon Quest XI, Monster Hunter World and potential Final Fantasy VII can all pass it but this still remains up in the air.
Nintendo shipped 720k+ until the end of June. I don't see a scenario it will collapse so suddenly and fail to reach 1m. It will be close enough already from the end of this year.Yeah, I'm going to guess that unless we see new Splatoon owners picking up new games over the next few weeks, BOTW will struggle to get to 1 million in Japan. It's still incredibly impressive, and will probably end up outselling most recent console Zeldas.
Monster Hunter Tri was a million seller on Wii and this is the result that I expect for PS4. PS3 only had one million seller (FFXIII) and the PS4 has potentially more (DQXI, MHW, FFVII).MH was never huge on consoles though. Stuff like RE has historically been bigger. I'm not sure if MHW will pass a million either.
I also expect DQXI will end up PS4's top seller pretty easily.
I just don't think the software support for PS3 is anywhere comparable to PS4 during similar time frame. Of course, you can say the legs were steady but Sony was also more aggressive with price cuts when it comes to PS3.
Nintendo shipped 720k+ until the end of June. I don't see a scenario it will collapse so suddenly and fail to reach 1m. It will be close enough already from the end of this year.
You can practically smell the passive aggression in here.
So many accusations of someone being wrong but no one actually wants to show evidence.
Anyhow, congratulations on Switch HD having a nice week for the first time in a while.
Splatoon 2 is off to be another cultural hit in Japan, just like it's predecessor.
Zelda will not reach 1,000,000 sales in Japan this year, if at all.
I have no clue how well Dragon Quest will sell on any platform.
Wait... Splatoon 2 has outsold Mario Kart? I really didn't see that coming. I guess it's not a 'new' MK, but still...
I'm expecting Splatoon 2 to be ahead of MK8 DX and Breath of the Wild in launch day sales.
If people want to celebrate PS4 hitting 5m, then sure.
Why would that make you care so much?
For the first year, it was selling among the all time worst.
Now for the past year-ish it's been selling around average/below average.
....That's worth getting into a fight over?
If people want to celebrate PS4 hitting 5m, then sure.
Why would that make you care so much?
For the first year, it was selling among the all time worst.
Now for the past year-ish it's been selling around average/below average.
....That's worth getting into a fight over?
Posting again here for the new page:
PS4 vs PS3 (PS4 reached 5 millions)
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Code:------------------------------------------------------------- | | PlayStation 3 | PlayStation 4 | Difference | | | (2006/11/11) | (2014/02/22) | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | PS4 - PS3 | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| | 177| 50.448|4.925.582| 29.771|4.935.270| 9.688| | 178| 38.877|4.964.459| 36.218|4.971.488| 7.029| | 179| 28.973|4.993.432| 30.878|5.002.366| 8.934| | 180| 25.590|5.019.022| | | | | 181| 25.629|5.044.651| | | | | 182| 32.874|5.077.525| | | | | 183| 26.185|5.103.710| | | | | 184| 20.463|5.124.173| | | | | 185| 19.075|5.143.248| | | | | 186| 20.987|5.164.235| | | | | 187| 18.951|5.183.186| | | | | 187| 17.676|5.200.862| | | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
Road to Mario Kart: done
Final Fantasy XV might have failed to reach a million but it will remain in the top selling game for the life time of PS4,
PS4 averages around 28,000 a week (LTD ÷ Weeks of availability)
If Ethomaz thinks the PS4 is doing great in Japan, what does this mean for the Switch? It was consistently selling around 25k per week prior to Splatoon 2's launch.
PS4 selling 5 million 1 week earlier than PS3 with better software support, less competition in class, and at a better price isn't bad, per say. It just isn't good either.
It does say that we aren't in a generation where the PS console drops catastrophically from its predecessor. And that's a good thing. Sony has managed to cling on to one of its markets in Japan.
It doesn't say that the home console market in Japan has made any headway. Instead its meager lead over PS3 doesn't begin to make up for the ~10 million loss from Wii to Wii U. We're talking a generation where even if PS4 does outsell PS3 a tad, the stationary console market has still almost halved itself.
At least in the portable scene you can say that, while similar things happened, 3DS still is one of the best selling consoles in Japan of all time.
...
The thing to watch atm is Switch, really, on a couple levels:
-Sales: are we looking at a device that gets upwards of 15 million and approaches 3DS numbers? I don't think we're looking at a device that exceeds 3DS atm, but if it can get closer to 3DS than PS4, we're in the better case.
Nintendo is trying to carve out a not-mobile portable market again by reorienting Switch towards "console" gaming and also focusing hard on getting a wealth of local multiplayer titles out fast. Does this revitalize the future of dedicated portables?
-How do Japanese developers treat Switch? Is it largely second fiddle to PS4? Do they instead continue PS4/Vita 'cross-generation' with Switch replacing Vita? Does the Switch present the chance for there to be one PS4/Switch software market to mitigate the losses in install base to both stationary and portable consoles?
I think, with an eye on Japan and the rotw both, Switch/PS4 is an interesting change in the potential of titles to reach a wider domestic audience while still being on the preeminent console oversees, and I think that if this opportunity is well-used, it could buoy the Switch and provide a brighter way forward for the domestic console market.
The thing is, PS4 small Japan + big RoW might just be enough for many developers and I really don't know how much of a stomach developers are going to have overall for trying to support a third way forward (i.e. not mobile, nor the leading console type of RoW) in this day and age.
So I'm really curious how things shape up from here on out wrt Switch support.
...
Idk in the long run, I think we want the Japanese console market to find a path forward towards a healthier domestic scene: I think a lot of us here like a lot of games designed in part with such a scene in mind; I also think Japanese creators have more creative flexibility when there is a wider market for their games to be viable within.
Right now, Switch is the device with potential to pave something of a way forward and throughout next year we'll get a better idea whether it'll succeed at all and what the shape of that success or failure seems to be.
Perhaps PS5 will be another such device, but chances are it'll probably be aimed squarely where the PS4 is aimed--there's no need for Sony to mess with the formula to try and excite the Japanese market. Still, we'll see.
Even if PS5 is that sort of successor though, it'll be interesting if it can keep pace with PS4 wrt whether the bleeding among stationary consoles has stopped.
Yes, of course. Digitally, it is a different story where I believe it has already passed 1.1 million or so. Atleast the last number I remember was 1.05 million with digital + retail.We're just talking physical retail only, right?
Will Nintendo be able to keep shipping the Switch at this pace, though?
After thinking about it, I was wrong.If at all? Its already at 676K+ I can see if you mean the switch only version, but I find it hard to believe it wont sell another 324K over the lifetime of the switch especially after the first holiday. As always though, time will tell.
Ah good joke, mate.If the switch was under supply constraints in Japan, how come there was any bump in HW at all? I think the baseline for the last couple of weeks had little to nothing to do with constraints.
If it keeps the 30k baseline outside of release/holiday weeks, is there even any chance for PS3 to catch-up again?ethomaz said:It will probably stay ahead for the 6 million milestone due the holidays.
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System | This Week | Last Week | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD | LTD |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| NSW | 102.581 | 25.154 | | 1.205.087 | | 1.205.087 |
| 3DS # | 28.831 | 48.464 | 23.539 | 973.179 | 752.754 | 22.884.592 |
| PS4 # | 27.530 | 28.793 | 17.857 | 991.009 | 801.954 | 4.912.625 |
| PSV # | 4.417 | 4.487 | 10.676 | 278.792 | 577.502 | 5.526.211 |
| WIU | 214 | 216 | 5.899 | 19.718 | 251.986 | 3.299.456 |
| PS3 | 142 | 135 | 743 | 15.358 | 36.264 | 10.273.077 |
| XB1 # | 102 | 35 | 55 | 5.380 | 3.447 | 78.328 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| ALL | 163.817 | 107.284 | 58.769 | 3.488.523 | 2.423.907 | 48.179.376 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| XB1 S | 102 | 35 | | 598 | | 6.326 |
|PS4 Pro| 6.303 | 7.214 | | 182.304 | | 299.354 |
| PS4 | 21.227 | 21.579 | 17.857 | 808.705 | 801.954 | 4.613.271 |
| PSV | 4.417 | 4.487 | 10.676 | 278.792 | 577.502 | 5.526.211 |
|n-2DSLL| 17.281 | 36.860 | | 54.141 | | 54.141 |
| 2DS | 1.922 | 1.591 | | 223.599 | | 520.746 |
| n-3DS | 9.628 | 10.013 | 23.033 | 695.439 | 707.873 | 5.389.428 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
Well regular Switch was 30k so around 70k.Is there any info on the number of Splatoon bundles? A few days ago there was a lot of doom & gloom about how Switch couldn't sell over 50k, for reasons I didn't understand.
It will probably do around 100-150k next week, bringing the total to 750-800k in two weeks. How is 1M this year not a given ?
How the hell is Zelda: Breath of the Wild likely to sell 100 - 150 k next week?!It will probably do around 100-150k next week, bringing the total to 750-800k in two weeks. How is 1M this year not a given ?