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[allan-bh]

If I remember rightly international Dreamcast numbers contradict each other depending on which financial report you read. The commonly quoted figure is 10.6m. It's complicated by the fact that BigBen bought all remaining European Dreamcast stock from Sega and officially supported it for some time after Sega dropped it. That's something that needs clarifying (Sega stop reporting figures for Europe in their later financial reports).

Maybe that's something that we can resolve in a Retro Sales-Age thread

So, Dreamcast final number is 9.13m + Big Ben unknown european stock ?

 

[Darius]

There already was a barebones comparison with PS3. So here also a comparison with a more current Sony system, the PSV.

PSV
2012 690.839
2013 1.224.532

The 2013 number includes the following big moves:
1. price-cut
2. revision: PSV TV
3. revision: PSV 2000

I think that makes clear how difficult it is to reach 1.5m or even over 2million units sold next year. Especially considering handhelds are more popular right now and the PS4 performing quite worse launch aligned.

 

[Celine]

If I remember rightly international Dreamcast numbers contradict each other depending on which financial report you read. The commonly quoted figure is 10.6m. It's complicated by the fact that BigBen bought all remaining European Dreamcast stock from Sega and officially supported it for some time after Sega dropped it. That's something that needs clarifying (Sega stop reporting figures for Europe in their later financial reports).

Maybe that's something that we can resolve in a Retro Sales-Age thread

Really?
I always took for granted the last Financial Reports which regarded DC (FY2001, mid-term FY 2002) had the most "up to date" figure.
The report cites the unsold inventory so I doubt Sega produced more consoles ...

Where does the 10.6M come from? The source cited in wikipedia is unreliable.

 

[MilesTeg]

Yeah the Dreamcast LTD figure of 10.6 million is dubious at best. Wikipedia source for that number is a random Gamepro article "The ten worst selling consoles of all time" where the guy seemingly pulls that number out of thin air. IIRC there are about two million unsourced consoles if that number is to be believed.

 

[Pennywise83]

The comparison between Soul Sacrifice and Bloodborne does not make sense, in my opinion.

Granted that I do not think Bloodborne is going to sell half a million units, or pushing a lot hardware sales, its main characteristic is that it is a game that a certain type of gamers cannot play anywhere else. PS3 userbase was basically used to have certain games, almost at a yearly basis: Yakuza, Tales of, Gundam, Dynasty Warriors. In the last 4 years, there have also been 3 entries of the Souls series, which Bloodborne absolutely belongs to, though with a different name. PS4 is going to fill that category of gamers, whose number might be decreasing, but it still viable to sustain a mid-tier software ecosystem.

Soul Sacrifice, instead, was basically Sony response to the loss of Monster Hunter. It tried to target MH userbase, which was already quite satisfied on 3DS, having a good expansion and a numbered entry to be released in a few months. People who liked hunting actions were not willing to jump again on a new hardware, when they had their favourite series already established elsewhere. Instead, Bloodborne is targeting to people that are ready to change hardware, from PS3 to PS4, and are not migrating anywhere else because that kind of games is really there.

 

[Road]

I think the fault is in duckroll's assumption that the gap will remain the same 1.3 million (it's currently actually more like 1.2 million). It'll most likely increase to ~1.5 million by February 2015.

The PS4 will sell at best 300k from now until February 2015 (before Bloodborne), while the Wii U can do from 500k to 600k. That's a 200k~300k increase in the gap.

For the PS4 to outdo the Wii U by 1.5 million in the subsequent 12 months, it'll have to sell 2 million, assuming the Wii U does 500k in that period. But if the Wii U does 600k, then PS4 will have to do 2.1 million.

So, I think it is extremely unlikely (it's not impossible) the PS4 will be even close (~100k) to the Wii U by February 2016. I think late 2016, assuming the PS4 will actually recover from the moribund state it currently is, is a reasonable bet for the PS4 to overtake the Wii U.

 

[Mpl90]

Actually, about that post on Musou releases, I'd like to update it with more recent datas (Media Create's top 1000 for CY 2013 helping) and DS and 3DS in the mix, for a better picture

PSP Musou Special / later releases v.s. PSV Musou simultaneous releases v.s. 3DS and DS Musou releases (Famitsu; no "The Best" included; digital included)

[PSP] Warriors Orochi 2 {2008.11.27} - 42,745 / 202,625
[PSP] Warriors Orochi {2008.02.21} - 51,876 / 162,403
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 7: Special {2011.08.25} - 28,598 / 84,234
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 6: Special {2009.10.22} - 23,059 / 76,729
[PSP] Warriors Orochi 3: Special {2012.07.19} - 24,518 / 67,570
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires {2010.01.21} - 13,741 / 43,617

[PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 {2013.03.20} - 54,509 / 103,757
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam Reborn {2013.12.19} - 44,889 / 96,021
[PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 {2014.03.20} - 43,545 / 92,722
[PSV] Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate {2013.09.26} - 24,825 / 48,225
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends {2013.11.28} - 11,627

[NDS] Dynasty Warriors DS: Fighter's Battle {2007.04.05} - ? / 21,389

[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles {2011.02.26} - 43,044 / 155,059
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd {2012.09.13} - 35,806 / 68,360
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors VS {2012.04.26} - 15,607 / 45,870

And here's the updated datas for some of them from MC CY2013's top 1000 (up to end of 2013)

[PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 {2013.03.20} - 60,315 / 118,112
[PSV] Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate {2013.09.26} - 25,483 / 49,492
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends {2013.11.28} - 11,870 / 22,777

[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd {2012.09.13} - 33,933 / 115,577
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors VS {2012.04.26} - 15,578 / 48,272

The only Warriors effort on DS was something...far different from your usual Musou title, even for a spin-off. On 3DS, thanks to better graphics, Tecmo Koei had the possibility to develop titles more in line with usual Musou titles, and results haven't been bad so far, especially considering how Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd was an expanded version of the launch title and it didn't fall that far from the first title.

However, Vita titles are doing pretty well as well and they're ports, so they're cheaper to develop than 3DS-only titles. And, seeing how things are going on Amazon.co.jp so far, SWC3 will probably debut quite better on Vita than on 3DS.

 

[BKK]

Really?
I always took for granted the last Financial Reports which regarded DC (FY2001, mid-term FY 2002) had the most "up to date" figure.
The report cites the unsold inventory so I doubt Sega produced more consoles ...

Where does the 10.6M come from? The source cited in wikipedia is unreliable.

Oh, I'm not saying 10.6m figure is right. I'm saying that different financial reports contradict each other (for example (not real figures) "we sold 2 million units this year, resulting in 4 million total units", then next year's report saying "we sold 3 million units this year resulting in 6 million total units"). It's quite annoying when trying to input the figures into a spreadsheet .

Edit: It could well be explained by "negative shipments", ie returns. I'll look into it.

 

[maxiell]

PS4 adoption is going to be incredibly slow. Overtaking Wii U by anytime in 2016 sounds fairly optimistic. Bloodborne will help, but their first party slate is not really targeted at Japan at all in the near term future.

 

[BKK]

So, Dreamcast final number is 9.13m + Big Ben unknown european stock ?

Probably not, it may well include BigBens number, but it's something that needs clarifying.

 

[frankie_baby]

Actually, about that post on Musou releases, I'd like to update it with more recent datas (Media Create's top 1000 for CY 2013 helping) and DS and 3DS in the mix, for a better picture

PSP Musou Special / later releases v.s. PSV Musou simultaneous releases v.s. 3DS and DS Musou releases (Famitsu; no "The Best" included; digital included)

[PSP] Warriors Orochi 2 {2008.11.27} - 42,745 / 202,625
[PSP] Warriors Orochi {2008.02.21} - 51,876 / 162,403
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 7: Special {2011.08.25} - 28,598 / 84,234
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 6: Special {2009.10.22} - 23,059 / 76,729
[PSP] Warriors Orochi 3: Special {2012.07.19} - 24,518 / 67,570
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires {2010.01.21} - 13,741 / 43,617

[PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 {2013.03.20} - 54,509 / 103,757
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam Reborn {2013.12.19} - 44,889 / 96,021
[PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 {2014.03.20} - 43,545 / 92,722
[PSV] Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate {2013.09.26} - 24,825 / 48,225
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends {2013.11.28} - 11,627

[NDS] Dynasty Warriors DS: Fighter's Battle {2007.04.05} - ? / 21,389

[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles {2011.02.26} - 43,044 / 155,059
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd {2012.09.13} - 35,806 / 68,360
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors VS {2012.04.26} - 15,607 / 45,870

And here's the updated datas for some of them from MC CY2013's top 1000 (up to end of 2013)

[PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 {2013.03.20} - 60,315 / 118,112
[PSV] Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate {2013.09.26} - 25,483 / 49,492
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends {2013.11.28} - 11,870 / 22,777

[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd {2012.09.13} - 33,933 / 115,577
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors VS {2012.04.26} - 15,578 / 48,272

The only Warriors effort on DS was something...far different from your usual Musou title, even for a spin-off. On 3DS, thanks to better graphics, Tecmo Koei had the possibility to develop titles more in line with usual Musou titles, and results haven't been bad so far, especially considering how Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd was an expanded version of the launch title and it didn't fall that far from the first title.

However, Vita titles are doing pretty well as well and they're ports, so they're cheaper to develop than 3DS-only titles. And, seeing how things are going on Amazon.co.jp so far, SWC3 will probably debut quite better on Vita than on 3DS.

But would then probably have better legs on the 3ds I'd assume

 

[frankie_baby]

PS4 adoption is going to be incredibly slow. Overtaking Wii U by anytime in 2016 sounds fairly optimistic. Bloodborne will help, but their first party slate is not really targeted at Japan at all in the near term future.

If Wii U does halfway decent next year could the ps4 have to wait til the Wii U successor releases (late 2017 is my guess) to overtake it

 

[MilesTeg]

If Wii U does halfway decent next year could the ps4 have to wait til the Wii U successor releases (late 2017 is my guess) to overtake it

I think Nintendo plans for a holiday 2016 release for their next console (just my opinion). Regardless of whether or not PS4 passes Wii U in 2016, it doesn't even matter all that much. Hardly anyone is developing games for Wii U. Whatever it's future sales, those won't change the situation regarding future software support. PS4 is in a very different situation.

Nintendo will be gearing up for it's next console release by the time PS4 catches or passes Wii U. Which I believe will be more successful in Japan with Nintendo's new development plan.

2016 could be an interesting year for consoles in Japan. PS4 starting to sell better with big software, and a potential new console from Nintendo. If Nintendo releases a good product, it will be interesting to see if their console can pick up future Japanese games that will be coming to PS4. If they play their cards right they could be releasing a new console right when Japanese PS4 development is increasing. The key is for Nintendo to release a good box at a good price, with at least a couple big Nintendo brands at launch, followed by solid post launch support. The new unified development could help to ease this problem which has always plagued Nintendo hardware since N64.

 

[BKK]

Contradictory DC shipments;

	  Japan	     North America  Europe     Asia	 World      Total Reported
1999 03	  900,000	   -	       -        -	   900,000	
2000 03	  950,000    2,500,000      1,040,000  160,000   4,650,000  5,550,000
2001 03	  470,000    1,780,000	      930,000  210,000   3,390,000  8,200,000
2002 03	  170,000      760,000	       ?	    ?	      ?         ?

Added up. Total	     Total	    Total      Total     Total	
	  2,490,000  5,040,000      1,970,000  370,000   9,870,000

 

[Mpl90]

If you're interested, here's a similar prospect about Pro Evolution Soccer on PSP, DS and 3DS.

Pro Evolution Soccer: PSP v.s. DS v.s. 3DS (Famitsu; no "The Best" included; digital included)

[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 {2009.01.29} - 102,221 / 250,204
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 {2010.11.18} - 34,906 / 227,028
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2010 {2009.12.10} - 46,138 / 213,033
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2012 {2011.11.03} - 41,205 / 192,572
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2008 {2008.01.24} - 70,313 / 190,140
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 {2012.11.01} - 34,486 / 143,047
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2007 {2006.12.14} - 25,852 / 130,919
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2010: Aoki Samurai no Chousen {2010.05.20} - 19,703 / 130,291
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014: Aoki Samurai no Chousen {2014.05.22} - 7,170 / 34,633
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014 {2013.11.14} - 16,504 / 24,069

[NDS] World Soccer Winning Eleven DS {2006.11.02} - 51,491 / 181,216
[NDS] World Soccer Winning Eleven DS: Goal x Goal! {2007.10.25} - 21,505 / 103,767

[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 3D {2011.02.26} - 26,222 / 125,488
[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014: Aoki Samurai no Chousen {2014.05.22} - 19,434 / 70,300
[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 {2012.11.01} - 9,084 / 32,534
[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2012 3D {2011.12.08} - ? / 31,088
[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014 {2013.11.14} - 10,459 / 20,333

And here's Media Create CY 2013 top 1000 numbers for some of them

[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 {2012.11.01} - 38,388 / 167,948
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014 {2013.11.14} - 16,976 / 53,996

[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 {2012.11.01} - 11,365 / 86,497
[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014 {2013.11.14} - 11,444 / 56,279

Bonus: Dengeki numbers for the latest release, WE2014: Aoki Samurai no Chousen (since they should be the most up-to-date)

[3DS] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014: Aoki Samurai no Chousen {2014.05.22} - 19,267 / 85,167 (up to Week 34)
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2014: Aoki Samurai no Chousen {2014.05.22} - 8,355 / 44,246 (up to Week 30)

Also, according to Dengeki, from Week 30 to Week 34, the 3DS version of Pro Evolution Soccer 2014: Aoki Samurai no Chousen outsold not just the PSP version, but the PS3 version as well.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think the fault is in duckroll's assumption that the gap will remain the same 1.3 million (it's currently actually more like 1.2 million). It'll most likely increase to ~1.5 million by February 2015.

The PS4 will sell at best 300k from now until February 2015 (before Bloodborne), while the Wii U can do from 500k to 600k. That's a 200k~300k increase in the gap.

For the PS4 to outdo the Wii U by 1.5 million in the subsequent 12 months, it'll have to sell 2 million, assuming the Wii U does 500k in that period. But if the Wii U does 600k, then PS4 will have to do 2.1 million.

So, I think it is extremely unlikely (it's not impossible) the PS4 will be even close (~100k) to the Wii U by February 2016. I think late 2016, assuming the PS4 will actually recover from the moribund state it currently is, is a reasonable bet for the PS4 to overtake the Wii U.

Hm.
At least we seem to have a somewhat interesting console battle this generation. Every other region was decided day one. And vita 3ds was....eh.

So that's something at least.

 

[extralite]

2016 will be a big year for PS4 in Japan. With the price cut having happened, FFXV releasing, possible DQXI announcement

Horii already said they want DQXI's release to coincide with the series' anniversary in 2016. That would put FFXV in 2015.

 

[Jamix012]

I think the gap between the PS4 and Wii U will grow quite a bit over the holidays, making it an even tougher challenge for the PS4 to overtake the Wii U. I don't see Bloodborne being a massive success or anything...In fact I'd probably say it'll do between 150k-250k which (to be fair) is pretty good for the PS4 as of now. It'll give maybe 2 weeks of a bump to PS4 but I don't think it'll help set a lasting trend.

Persona 5, MGSV and Dragon Quest Heroes however, I think are a different beast, even if they're not exclusive. I fully expect DQH to do 400k+ numbers on PS4 and with Persona 5 I think the PS4 will definitely gain a lot of ground on the Wii U in 2015. I don't expect the console to rise to like even close to 40k a week (as duckroll used as an example) average. A 30k average for 2015 would be miraculous but possible I guess with good holiday sales.

Overall I think the Wii U will be overtaken 2016 (if ever.)

 

[theprodigy]

Hm.
At least we seem to have a somewhat interesting console battle this generation. Every other region was decided day one. And vita 3ds was....eh.

So that's something at least.

yeah everything is pretty much already set in the grand scheme of things

Spoiler

maybe XB1 vs 3DS in the US? lol

 

[vicissitudes]

Horii already said they want DQXI's release to coincide with the series' anniversary in 2016. That would put FFXV in 2015.

DQIX for DS: July 2009
FFXIII for PS3: December 2009

DQXI for 3DS: July 2016
FFXV for PS4: December 2016

Just according to keikaku.

 

[Mory Dunz]

yeah everything is pretty much already set in the grand scheme of things

Spoiler

maybe XB1 vs 3DS in the US? lol

Vita vs Wii U would be interesting if we had Vita numbers.

I've seen LTDs ranging from 6 million to 10 Million

 

[vicissitudes]

Random tidbit:

Media Create
PS4 outsold Wii U: 13 weeks
Wii U outsolde PS4: 16 weeks

Famitsu
PS4 outsold Wii U: 14 weeks
Wii U outsolde PS4: 15 weeks

Spoiler

Hopefully I counted right

 

[Astral Dog]

Console gaming is dead in Japan

 

[BengaBenga]

I'm in the "PS4 won't overtake WiiU until 2016" camp. Not that it matters all that much, both will have pathetic sales numbers. The real system seller, Final Fantasy XV won't be there until holidays 2016 and I have a very hard time believing DQXI will be on PS4. By end 2016 I hope Nintendo is capable enough to finaly release that handheld/console hybrid - which would be the only thing that has a shot at reviving the Japanese console market a bit.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Did I say publishers should be "fair"? I'm not even sure what means?

The evaluation of a shift (not necessairly a sea-change, this has been gradual and we saw it starting last generation) comes from the fact that consumers aren't following these decades worth of built up industry expectations. How do you even define consumer expectations now? You're staking a claim here that we really can't prove, in fact the only empirical data we have (sales) indicates otherwise. And it's not simply the identical Musou bombs. PS4 isn't selling like a platform that consumers expect to be the home to nearly every major 3rd party game, there's no relative audience building or intent occurring here. Historically PlayStation associated franchises from virtually every big publisher are performing better on 3DS than Vita, I even named several for you earlier. How does this not imply some sort of movement in consumer expectations? What evidence do you have that consumer expectations are locked in to some status quo unwavering for decades now? Because I don't think they are, they seem different. The issue I'm proposing is that publisher expectations are lagging that to such a large degree we can't even point towards sales anymore. Not reduced sales (that was last gen) but equal or worse sales. Publishers seem to be operating on what then? Expectations? Bias? Faith?

And you're staking a claim that isn't supported by the data that your pointing to. They seem "different"? Based on these few poorly performing ports?

Based on this sales data you want to claim a movement in brand associations?

Based on these current sales you want to claim that the PlayStation consoles have lost their brand equity when it comes to third party support in consumers' eyes. Ot that Nintendo have generated it, such that the expected audience distribution has changed?

These associations aren't unwavering, but I highly doubt they've been degraded to the point you're suggesting in the space of a few months.

Also you seem to again be speaking towards movement of franchises to handheld and that's not even what I'm speaking towards. As far as I'm aware our discussion is primarily console musou. Edit: And on the point of Vita support, I believe it's already been noted in the thread there are extenuating circumstances potentially regarding reduced royalty rates.

And if I ask the relatively rhetorical questions of which system will consumers expect third party franchises on, where will the audience eventuate, what type of audience do PS home consoles cultivate, how are the systems positioned relatively towards the potential audience, and therefore where should I put game X if I'm going to put it on consoles? The answers do not seem different because of the current limited sales data.

 

[Refreshment.01]

Quickly parsed to some replies about the 3rd party situation discussion.

To sum up a not so original point of view from my part i would say, there are logical and not so logical (to the point of bias) reasons behind the type of support 3rd parties are giving Nintendo is the east.

What i would like to point out is that 3rd parties are making a mistake by not supporting the 3DS full on with their releases. To explain, there's segment of 3rd parties that support the Vita because there's a perceived specialized market in there, so the Vita gets support in the form of games targeting that market because it "sells" better than a 3DS version would.

Think that it would serve 3rd parties better to have multiple games in a series selling an "x" amount of thousand units less in the 3DS if these means they are cultivating the audience in the device because eventually this could mean access to a bigger, wider and more varied market. The install base difference is just too big to ignore and segmenting the user interest supporting 2 devices with such gap in market penetration is counter productive.

Would it be outrageous to claim that if the situation was reversed (Vita with a 3DS user base) the 3DS would get almost non existant 3rd party support even for the games that make sense for the device acording to market perceptions?

 

[Takao]

Gamecube had nonexistent hardware sales compared to PS2 and it still got a lot of third party children's software, some of which didn't appear on Sony's machine.

 

[crinale]

The whole media create report is up and X1's entire software sales is like 28K. It's saying if you exclude bundle attach rate is like 074%.

 

[hiska-kun]

First Day Sellthrough

[PS4] Destiny - more than 60%
[PS3] Destiny - 80%

Going by sales is PS4 > PS3

[PS3] Naruto - 40%

[PSV] Chain Chronicle V (Package version) - fail

 

[Hero of Legend]

First Day Sellthrough

[PS4] Destiny - more than 60%
[PS3] Destiny - 80%

Sales is PS4 > PS3

[PS3] Naruto - 40%

[PSV] Chain Chronicle V - fail

So... is it the blog that posts "Fail" or "Rabbids Land" or is this a silly joke?

Would much rather the raw percentage than just saying it's bad.

Quickly parsed to some replies about the 3rd party situation discussion.

To sum up a not so original point of view from my part i would say, there are logical and not so logical (to the point of bias) reasons behind the type of support 3rd parties are giving Nintendo is the east.

What i would like to point out is that 3rd parties are making a mistake by not supporting the 3DS full on with their releases. To explain, there's segment of 3rd parties that support the Vita because there's a perceived specialized market in there, so the Vita gets support in the form of games targeting that market because it "sells" better than a 3DS version would.

Think that it would serve 3rd parties better to have multiple games in a series selling an "x" amount of thousand units less in the 3DS if these means they are cultivating the audience in the device because eventually this could mean access to a bigger, wider and more varied market. The install base difference is just too big to ignore and segmenting the user interest supporting 2 devices with such gap in market penetration is counter productive.

Would it be outrageous to claim that if the situation was reversed (Vita with a 3DS user base) the 3DS would get almost non existant 3rd party support even for the games that make sense for the device acording to market perceptions?

I agree. I also see that certain devs pretty much can't seem to distance themselves from Sony hardware even when the difference is that severe, like Gust, NIS, Compile Heart, etc. Only way it seems they will ever migrate to 3DS is if Vita gets discontinued, and even then they'll just keep at it since it's not like all Vitas would explode (OR WILL THEY?! ).

Next gen will be a bit more telling if Sony does bow out of the race, especially when their PSP ace in the hole never showed up (you know the one ) and Vita's doing WAY worse worldwide than PSP, I would understand Sony not being confident in a 3rd go.

So what happens then? If PS3 is no more at that point, I don't know if the likely high budgets in PS4 development would keep those devs satisfied, especially when they've been very alive on handhelds as much as on consoles. You also don't see them going crazy over mobile development surprisingly.

So 3DS/4DS would be the only viable option. Point is they won't budge unless they have little to no choice.

 

[Xenus]

First Day Sellthrough

[PS4] Destiny - more than 60%
[PS3] Destiny - 80%

Sales is PS4 > PS3

[PS3] Naruto - 40%

[PSV] Chain Chronicle V - fail

Any idea on how the Destiny bundle is looking?

 

[hiska-kun]

So... is it the blog that posts "Fail" or "Rabbids Land" or is this a silly joke?

Would much rather the raw percentage than just saying it's bad.

The blog didn't write anything. He just post a picture with a girl being disappointed about a test result (or that seems that to me).

So fail xD

Edit: No words about bundles

 

[Hero of Legend]

The blog didn't write anything. He just post a picture with a girl being disappointed about a test result (or that seems that to me).

So fail xD

Edit: No words about bundles

Isn't Chain Chronicle V a F2P game?

 

[hiska-kun]

Isn't Chain Chronicle V a F2P game?

That's the sellthrough for the package version, and it's pretty low according to the blog.

Phantasy Star Online was also a F2P game and it didn't have any problems to sell more than 100k and meet retailers expectations.

 

[sörine]

And you're staking a claim that isn't supported by the data that your pointing to. They seem "different"? Based on these few poorly performing ports?

Based on this sales data you want to claim a movement in brand associations?

Based on these current sales you want to claim that the PlayStation consoles have lost their brand equity when it comes to third party support in consumers' eyes. Ot that Nintendo have generated it, such that the expected audience distribution has changed?

These associations aren't unwavering, but I highly doubt they've been degraded to the point you're suggesting in the space of a few months.

Also you seem to again be speaking towards movement of franchises to handheld and that's not even what I'm speaking towards. As far as I'm aware our discussion is primarily console musou. Edit: And on the point of Vita support, I believe it's already been noted in the thread there are extenuating circumstances potentially regarding reduced royalty rates.

And if I ask the relatively rhetorical questions of which system will consumers expect third party franchises on, where will the audience eventuate, what type of audience do PS home consoles cultivate, how are the systems positioned relatively towards the potential audience, and therefore where should I put game X if I'm going to put it on consoles? The answers do not seem different because of the current limited sales data.

Are you even reading what I write? No it's not only based on a couple console Musou ports, I just said as much and that's never been my argument. Yes I've been including handhelds, so did Opiate who I suppossedly ignored. Sales degraded in a few months? No, I just told you this was a gradual shift that goes back an entire generation.

It's becoming increasing clear that I'm not going to get anywhere with you so I'll just just answer your rhetorical; it doesn't matter what consumers expect. Because publishers aren't following them at this point, they're putting blind faith in the Church of PlayStation. I'm sure you can relate.

 

[crinale]

Well I'm also expecting PS4 to overtake WiiU during 2015, but who knows.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Yes, clearly I'm beholden to the magical church of Playstation, all hail Kaz Hirai, marry me Yoshida. And you're arguments are obviously devoid of any sentimentality. It's Koei that are also irrational fanboys just putting things on the PS4 because they're in love with Andrew House as well.

If you're arguing that there should be a shift to handhelds, I don't even disagree, for certain franchises. But there are other factors that come into play here, namely looking globally.

Frankly, I have no idea what you're arguing now, beyond publishers having some sort of irrational bias towards Sony's systems.

And all I've been arguing is that these publisher attitudes are based on a myriad of factors, among them preset consumer expectations, that make their decisions entirely reasonable.
Nintendo and the Wii U have not built any of this in terms of brand equity both with consumers and with publishers.

What data are you drawing from to suggest that this myriad of key franchises, which you seemingly refuse to name, have lost their association with Sony's home systems over the course of the generation?

If Konami release a port of MGS Snake Eater tomorrow and it sells 10K, does that indicate that they should change their plans regarding the MGS franchise? Does it suggest erosion of the association between the franchise and the PS home systems? Does it suggest a change in expectations of where the franchise will eventually head from a consumer perspective? Does it change expectations of where their audience will eventually be?

How have these ports changed anything in the grand scale that would lead a decision maker at Koei to give pause to the idea that, if they're still going to release console iterations, that their future iterations of their franchises should be on the PS home consoles and not on Nintendo's home consoles?

And since you seemingly want to make this some sort of personal thing, the exact same thing can be applied to Nintendo but with different franchises from third party systems. The number of these franchises is simply fewer in number given third parties and Nintendo's target demographic mix has in recent times diverged.

The long and the short of it: Audience matters, expectations of audience matters, expectations by audience (i.e. established brand equity) matter, and all of this goes into it being perfectly reasonable to drop the Wii U like a rock, while still greenlighting PS4 SKUs.

 

[sörine]

Yes, clearly I'm beholden to the magical church of Playstation, all hail Kaz Hirai, marry me Yoshida. And you're arguments are obviously devoid of any sentimentality. It's Koei that are also irrational fanboys just putting things on the PS4 because they're in love with Andrew House as well.

If you're arguing that there should be a shift to handhelds, I don't even disagree, for certain franchises.

Frankly, I have no idea what you're arguing now, beyond publishers having some sort of irrational bias towards Sony's systems.

And all I've been arguing is that these publisher attitudes are based on a myriad of factors, among them preset consumer expectations, that make their decisions entirely reasonable.

What data are you drawing from to suggest that this myriad of key franchises, which you seemingly refuse to name, have lost their association with Sony's home systems over the course of the generation?

If Konami release a port of MGS Snake Eater tomorrow and it sells 10K, does that indicate that they should change their plans regarding the MGS franchise? Does it suggest erosion of the association between the franchise and the PS home systems? Does it suggest a change in expectations of where the franchise will eventually head?

You should probably step back and reread what I've written then, since my original argument (you know, the one Opiate responded to) was that there had to be something more than platform bias at play here. My suggestion to that was 1st party support/incentives, which I'm surprised you keep overlooking. Seems like an argument you'd be pretty into.

I also named Metal Gear, Tales, Ridge Racer and Musou as traditional PS franchises that performed better on Nintendo hardware this cycle. I'm naming them again since clicking back a page or two seems beneath you or something.

Consumer expectations can drive hardware. They drove Super Famicom, and PlayStation 2, both early on and hard with previous little software in the early goings. They haven't driven PS4 though. Or Wii U either to be fair. Or Vita.

Publishers aren't following consumers anymore. They're trying to lead them. Publishers are setting the expectation, not following them. This sort of happened last gen to mixed results, I can't really see it going any better this time around. Refreshment is right, if they wanted a strong national platform they should've converged on 3DS (like it was a PlayStation) and used PS4/XB1 exclusively for western leaning brands.

 

[Nirolak]

Road to TGS™.

Full list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-zF0jwT0Y1a3kcNbnRJYt323BgFtXwmAZHRF2vwzkZU/edit?usp=sharing

Ishi Sengoku-den “Sadame”
Platform: 3DS eShop
Genre: Action RPG
Publisher: Intergrow
Developer: MEBIUS
Special Notes:
-Article w/ screenshots: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201409/11060854.html
-At least I think it's eShop not 100% sure.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I've already mentioned first party incentivisation, as far as I'm aware. And these feed into perfectly rational decision making.

I'm certainly willing to concede* that on the handheld front, consumer expectations can and have eroded, that the 3DS makes sense from an external perspective over the PSV. But in that regard I don't even know if I'd say any particularly strong brand equity was built on PS systems anyway. And in that regard I'd imagine incentivisation towards cross-platform porting comes into play.

Essentially the strength of Sony's home associations benefits their handheld line.

But on the home console front, I don't see anything that suggests it necessary for incentivisation on the part of Sony for something like musou, or MGS or Tales or _insert core demographic targeted third party franchise with it's traditional audience on consoles_. Because I really don't see from where one draws that these brand associations are no longer in play.

*Oh look I'm not entirely rigid and immutable, someone must have partially deprogrammed me.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Road to TGS™.

Project "S"
Platform: Action RPG
Genre: Online Theater RPG
Publisher: Intergrow
Developer: MEBIUS
Special Notes:
-Article w/ screenshots: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201409/09060853.html
-At least I think it's eShop not 100% sure.

I love this system. I have 4

Is it 3DS?

EDIT:
Oh

 

[Nirolak]

I love this system. I have 4

Is it 3DS?

Yes sorry I updated the wrong field.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Road to TGS™.

Full list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-zF0jwT0Y1a3kcNbnRJYt323BgFtXwmAZHRF2vwzkZU/edit?usp=sharing

Project "S"
Platform: 3DS eShop
Genre: Action RPG
Publisher: Intergrow
Developer: MEBIUS
Special Notes:
-Article w/ screenshots: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201409/09060853.html
-At least I think it's eShop not 100% sure.

....ooo

That looks alright

 

[Nirolak]

....ooo

That looks alright

Here's the article that actually has the rest of the screens: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201409/11060854.html

I linked the other one by accident.

 

[Arzehn]

Hm, there a new game from Furyu, countdown to TGS. There's some music on the site but it's really quiet, had to turn my sound up a lot.

http://www.cs.furyu.jp/projectlegacy/

Kind of confused how Furyu lives off so little sales for their games. They tend to do better on the Vita over other platforms, so I'm expecting a Vita game.

 

[hongcha]

Kind of confused how Furyu lives off so little sales for their games.

Their business involves various markets outside of video games, such as photo ticket vending booths, arcade amusement machines (esp. "prize" machines), and mobile apps. I am guessing that keeps them afloat.

As for this game, they also still release stuff on 3DS regularly (most recently a game in June and another in July), so it could be Vita or 3DS. They jump back and forth between the two platforms.

 

[BriBri]

Road to TGS™.

Full list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-zF0jwT0Y1a3kcNbnRJYt323BgFtXwmAZHRF2vwzkZU/edit?usp=sharing

Project "S"
Platform: 3DS eShop
Genre: Action RPG
Publisher: Intergrow
Developer: MEBIUS
Special Notes:
-Article w/ screenshots: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201409/11060854.html
-At least I think it's eShop not 100% sure.

The name is now Ishi Sengoku-den “Sadame” and the website is now http://game.intergrow.jp/sadame/
And yes, eShop.

Edit: also will by at TGS (all 3DS eShop) are Forest of Poitto Kororoke (probably not a good translation!) by Gamedo, Tool Shop’s Kingdom by PUMO and a battle action game by Epcot.

 

[casiopao]

Well I'm also expecting PS4 to overtake WiiU during 2015, but who knows.

I am the exact opposite here. I believe the earliest it will happen is the time FFXV will come out. And hell knows when that come out with how S-E is right now.

If FFXV is unable to come out till that time, 2017 will be the time.

 

[Pennywise83]

Hm, there a new game from Furyu, countdown to TGS. There's some music on the site but it's really quiet, had to turn my sound up a lot.

http://www.cs.furyu.jp/projectlegacy/

Kind of confused how Furyu lives off so little sales for their games. They tend to do better on the Vita over other platforms, so I'm expecting a Vita game.

Well, FuRyu published Card Fight games on 3DS, and they sold quite well: around 70k units, making them the best selling FuRyu games.

 

[Nirolak]

Publishers aren't following consumers anymore. They're trying to lead them. Publishers are setting the expectation, not following them. This sort of happened last gen to mixed results, I can't really see it going any better this time around. Refreshment is right, if they wanted a strong national platform they should've converged on 3DS (like it was a PlayStation) and used PS4/XB1 exclusively for western leaning brands.

If you really want to go down this route, putting games on the 3DS is also trying to lead consumers to a majorly declining platform gen over gen.

The growth area in Japan is mobile. To follow where consumers went, you would converge there, not on the 3DS.

If we start getting into "but" statements, we must acknowledge that there are relevant demographic, interface, and technological concerns that would inform platform choice beyond solely innate consumer interest in a device in and of itself, and that's before we even get into platform incentivization.

If we go that far, it's not hard to work out why we would start to see publishers behave in a way that doesn't always lead them to the platform that sells the most.

For example, let's take Yakuza. They tried multiple times to make a succesful spinoff series on the PSP, a vastly better selling system than the PS3, yet could not. A core issue here is that the audience for the product skews notably older than most Japanese series and the experience the target audience is after is a (relatively) high production value experience that feels more akin to the films the actors playing the parts might star in.

A title simply possessing the brand name of the series is not meaningful to them if it does not offer the experience they want. The added cost of getting a console isn't a major barrier to them as they're also a higher income demographic.

For Sega, switching the series to 3DS or mobile phones would simply lose them the audience they had. This is why they do not follow that route, as the income the series generates is notable enough to be worth investing in, even if the platform it's on is a smaller install base. Similarly they only put companion apps on the Vita as they only think an insufficient portion of their audience has interest in the device so actually targeting the game at it doesn't make sense, especially if it would simply shift what platform some of the audience is buying the game on instead of courting new customers.