BrokenJohnCena
Member
welp,so much of expanding to China lol
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DeuceGamer
Member
Yea, I'm not sure I trust this article but if they can increase production I think it's possible to ship that many.
How many units would they likely ship to China, Taiwan, Korea, etc... when they launch in those territories?
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Ontop of that no other version is coming with it obviously and I think it mostly already sold to the people who bought it already, which is the same exact people really.
Well further monetization is monetization, even if its the same people. I just think they *should* try a F2P client to attempt to actually rebuild the base.
I don't think this release will do much ont hat end, which is my issue with it. Monetizing the audience you have is good when you have an audience.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
wait,how many units did they initial forecast?13 mil?
10 million
BrokenJohnCena
Member
so basically 15 mil at best,right?
Well who knows about "at best" since they want to beat that amount, but yeah that would mean 15 million sold(shipped?) in FY. That would roughly line up with the WSJ report about them potentially shipping 18m for the FY.
Skittzo0413
Member
Well so far we have no idea if they plan to launch in China, it's just analyst predictions as far as I know. If they do I don't really expect that to even be this FY, so it wouldn't reflect this FY's shipments. But who knows.
Either way, I wouldn't trust the Digitimes article.
There were some rumors that they were preparing to produce 18 million, so if true that would be the best case. That would make it over 20 million total by the beginning of the next FY.
If next week's MC numbers don't fall to much then I think the signs for hitting 15-18m seem fairly good.
Jarod McChicken
Member
ArkhamFantasy
Member
I will take this moment to once again proclaim that i will never underestimate nintendo ever again, under any circumstances.
Nah we all will
3DS: 8.43m (+12%)
PS4: 7.16m (+38%)
SWI: 3.76m
PSV: 1.70m (-53%)
WIU: 462k (-72%)
PS3: 179k (-88%)
XB1: 16.3k (-49%)
LTD
PS4: 22.93m
PSV: 22.87m
PS3 sold just under 75 million, so still ways to go. For the year so far Switch has already moved more software than the Wii U did during it's peak, in 2015 Wii U did 3.72m. 5 million is the minimum it could sell this year, so it might outdo the best year of the Vita too.
BanjoLayleeYookaKazooie
Banned
That would be really great to see. Any hint of targets for specific regions? 2 million in Japan reasonable through now till December 31st?
For them to ship 15 million this year we are looking at roughly:
6 million NA
4 million Japan
5 million RotW
Which would require 176K on average per week in Japan.
or
5.5 million NA
4.5 million Japan
5 million RotW
Which would require 215K on average per week in Japan.
A 4 million goal is certainly plausible:
Nintendo was able to sell 2318K 3DS in 2011 from week 32 to week 52 which was 178K on average per week in Japan. I can certainly see Nintendo being able to sell a similar amount of Switches if there is truly this much supply. Right now Switch is only 120K behind 3DS launch aligned, has a better library and is more attractive as a device - seems the price being so high hasn't effected Switch's performance at all.
For the Switch to reach 4.5 million in Japan we are going to need to blow way past 3DS numbers, selling nearly 20% more what 3DS was doing during it's first holiday. Basically in December they need to ship 1.5 million and another 1.3 million in October/November. Which means that they'd need to sell on average 300K p/w Dec & 162K p/w Oct/Nov.
If we see >100K weeks leading up to SMO launch, than the second option becomes a possibility, if it just keeps pace with the 3DS leading up to SMO launch than 4 million is looking more likely.
6 million NA
4 million Japan
5 million RotW
Which would require 176K on average per week in Japan.
or
5.5 million NA
4.5 million Japan
5 million RotW
Which would require 215K on average per week in Japan.
A 4 million goal is certainly plausible:
Nintendo was able to sell 2318K 3DS in 2011 from week 32 to week 52 which was 178K on average per week in Japan. I can certainly see Nintendo being able to sell a similar amount of Switches if there is truly this much supply. Right now Switch is only 120K behind 3DS launch aligned, has a better library and is more attractive as a device - seems the price being so high hasn't effected Switch's performance at all.
For the Switch to reach 4.5 million in Japan we are going to need to blow way past 3DS numbers, selling nearly 20% more what 3DS was doing during it's first holiday. Basically in December they need to ship 1.5 million and another 1.3 million in October/November. Which means that they'd need to sell on average 300K p/w Dec & 162K p/w Oct/Nov.
If we see >100K weeks leading up to SMO launch, than the second option becomes a possibility, if it just keeps pace with the 3DS leading up to SMO launch than 4 million is looking more likely.
The question is if Nintendo has the software to do so. No doubt that SMO will sell but that is a October game. Do they have any other big seller for Nov or Dec?
theprodigy
Member
Evo isn't everything when it comes to entrants.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Odyssey is essentially their big November release for the system. It launches on the 27th of this month.
Since this is the console's first holiday, their big releases for the season are basically everything released up to this point, such as Zelda, Mario Kart, and Splatoon. It's a very attractive lineup.
FY ends at March, not December.
But then again, he is including the March 2017 numbers into the analysis, so it should just about weigh out at 15 million by the end of 2017 I think, all things considered.
A lot of people who want a Switch are still unable to get one in Japan, hence people still lining up on lotteries. December is generally a time of the year where Nintendo makes a huge amount of it's annual hardware sales in Japan. In terms of titles below is my opinion/speculation
Known:
Splatoon 2 - the biggest sw reason Switch is doing so well isn't going to drop off very quickly, I expect it to be the best selling non-bundled game for Oct/Nov/Dec.
Super Mario Odyssey - the biggest new 1st party game coming to the Switch
MK8D, BotW, Xenoblade 2, Arms, MHXX, 1 2 Switch, Pokken, FEW etc - Nintendo published games and a few "bigger" 3rd party games that are also driving adoption in varying degrees.
Snipperclips + and BotW DLC - one of the best selling eShop games is getting a physical release and additional content. One of the best selling Switch games is getting an expansion
Existing and upcoming indie and 3rd party games - smaller games do help make the device more attractive - especially games which might appeal to Japanese audience or make use of Switch's build in local multiplayer options.
Speculation
Minecraft Physical Release - just in time for the holidays, first Switch 3rd party million seller needs a physical release with the Better Together update.
Splatoon 2's first major update - new mode?/Octarians?/Tournament Mode?/Dedicated Servers? who knows but it's coming
DQXI - very low chance but still possible
Mainly this is for 15 million shipped by the end of 2017, other variants are a bit pessimistic for my liking and someone else can break them down in terms of averages needed. If they ship 15 million this year it still leaves 7.7 million that would be produced/shipped until the end of the FY if the 20 million figure is in anyway correct. The 15 million for 2017 takes into account 2.7 mil at launch. I'm sure both NA and Japan can reach the figures outlined above while other countries are a bit of a question mark but with Nintendo France targeting 800K for 2017, I'm sure rest of Europe can make up another 2-3 million. That leaves around 1-1.2 million for the RotW. With Asia's growing prominence for Japanese publishers and moderate success in SA/Oceania it's looking like something they can manage if supply issues are being resolved ahead of the holidays. Personally I can see them beating their own expectations in NA/Japan/France and selling well over 10 million across their 3 biggest markets.
Right now Switch is likely around 2.5 million in NA - there is already signs that there is much more ample supply ahead of SMO launch, October could very well allow Switch to reach 3 million before November and December. There are many reasons why I think both Nov and Dec will be >1 million in NA - the lineup is actually better for Western players than Japanese this Christmas - portable Skyrim, Rocket League & Doom all arriving in time for the holidays. This coupled with the already impressive lineup and SMO/Xenoblade 2/BotW DLC/Splatoon 2 and Arms Updates will make it the hot gift this holiday.
March 2017 numbers for Switch in Japan were less than 600k. You can't take that number as base for January-March 2018 shipments.
What we have so far are 2m for Q1 and likely somewhere north of 2,5m for Q2.
The user wasn't laughing at the performance. There's nothing in the post that can lead someone to think so. Anyway, it's still an interesting case study, because we can really see how no one liked the first game.
This was repeated many times but people tend to forgot. Nintendo games sell extremely well during holidays. Nintendo doesn't really need a game during November and December because it has an extremely appealing line-up right now; also, new stocks mean that many people will buy old games. If Splatoon is able to pull 30k in October, it will likely have 100k+ weeks during December. Same for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Odyssey of course will sell a lot.
Just have a look at how 3DS, DS and Wii legacy games were selling during holidays.
Ōkami;251038496 said:
3DS: 8.43m (+12%)
PS4: 7.16m (+38%)
SWI: 3.76m
PSV: 1.70m (-53%)
WIU: 462k (-72%)
PS3: 179k (-88%)
XB1: 16.3k (-49%)
LTD
PS4: 22.93m
PSV: 22.87m
PS3 sold just under 75 million, so still ways to go. For the year so far Switch has already moved more software than the Wii U did during it's peak, in 2015 Wii U did 3.72m. 5 million is the minimum it could sell this year, so it might outdo the best year of the Vita too.
PS4 is hardly absorbing all vanishing PS3 and PSV sales---and this year it even had Dragon Quest XI.
Laplasakos
Member
Ōkami;251038496 said:
PS4 software sales already passed those of Vita's already? Impressive, if you consider that a good % of PS4 games are also on Vita (and sold better too). It will be hard to catch that PS3 number but this time we have digital sales too.
Btw, what was the LTD of the PS3 software around the same time as PS4 now? I remember some months ago that someone said PS4 was leading but i can't find the post.
When is the Q2 report from Nintendo? Should be in October?
2017 CY Switch sales
Q1 {2017.03.03 - 2017.04.02} - 565.013 / 565.013 (5 weeks)
Q2 {2017.04.03 - 2017.07.02} - 474.812 / 1.039.825 (13 weeks)
Q3 {2017.07.03 - 2017.10.01} - 744.359 / 1.784.184 (13 weeks)
Q4 {2017.10.02 - 2017.12.31} - x.xxx.xxx / x.xxx.xxx (13 weeks)
These were the shipments from Nintendo
Japan / America / Other / Total / LTD
Q1 600k / 1.200k / 940k / 2.740k / 2.740k
Q2 520k / 750k / 690k / 1.970k / 4.700k
October 30 and a lot of info will come from that.
Q1 {2017.03.03 - 2017.04.02} - 565.013 / 565.013 (5 weeks)
Q2 {2017.04.03 - 2017.07.02} - 474.812 / 1.039.825 (13 weeks)
Q3 {2017.07.03 - 2017.10.01} - 744.359 / 1.784.184 (13 weeks)
Q4 {2017.10.02 - 2017.12.31} - x.xxx.xxx / x.xxx.xxx (13 weeks)
These were the shipments from Nintendo
Japan / America / Other / Total / LTD
Q1 600k / 1.200k / 940k / 2.740k / 2.740k
Q2 520k / 750k / 690k / 1.970k / 4.700k
October 30 and a lot of info will come from that.
test_account
XP-39C²
How much could the PS4 have absorbed from those sales? PS3 and Vita are down about 3.22 million units in sales. PS4 is up about 1.32 million units. Were there enough releases for the PS4, so it technically (or being expected) could have had 1.26 million units more in software sales?
Impressive? PSV had many games but most of them were niche games. Best-selling game after Minecraft is God Eater 2 at around 425k units. At a certain point, PSV became the Minecraft machine, while old audience was buying niche games.
PS4 has had all mainline entries of the best-selling third party games in Japan (Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, Metal Gear Solid, Yakuza, Tales of, Dark Souls), outside Level-5 stuffs and Monster Hunter (which is coming). PSV had nothing close to this support.
Laplasakos
Member
PS4 was sharing all the DQ games (except XI) with PS3 and Vita, Tales also, FF-RE-Yakuza declined and Dark Souls with MGS are the only games that had same or better sales. Since we are talking about LTD you shouldn't be looking only at the big games but at the bigger picture which is the number of the games each system has. Gamesdatalibrary lists 368 PS4 games and 603 Vita games. Almost the double. There are some budget releases and digital only games in the list (not more than 20 though) but you get the picture. And as i said before, some of these PS4 games (well known franchises) are also on PS3 and Vita with better sales. So yeah, when you consider all this and not looking the number without any context, in my opinion it is impressive.
Also, Minecraft on Vita alone is still higher than PS4 best selling game which is DQXI.
Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2014 (Sep 22 - Sep 28)
02./00. [PSV] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} (¥6.800) - 98.161 / NEW <80-100%>
03./00. [PS3] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} (¥7.800) - 71.069 / NEW <80-100%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 40, 2017 (Sep 25 - Oct 01)
01./00. [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.09.28} (¥7.800) - 104.401 / NEW <80-100%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 40, 2016 (Sep 26 - Oct 02)
01./00. [PS4] FIFA 17 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.09.29} (¥7.800) - 52.544 / NEW <60-80%>
05./00. [PS3] FIFA 17 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.09.29} (¥7.800) - 12.343 / NEW <60-80%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 40, 2017 (Sep 25 - Oct 01)
02./00. [PS4] FIFA 18 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800) - 56.924 / NEW <60-80%>
09./00. [NSW] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800) - 12.896 / NEW <60-80%>
30./00. [PS3] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800) - 2.601 / NEW <40-60%>
02./00. [PSV] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} (¥6.800) - 98.161 / NEW <80-100%>
03./00. [PS3] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} (¥7.800) - 71.069 / NEW <80-100%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 40, 2017 (Sep 25 - Oct 01)
01./00. [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.09.28} (¥7.800) - 104.401 / NEW <80-100%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 40, 2016 (Sep 26 - Oct 02)
01./00. [PS4] FIFA 17 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.09.29} (¥7.800) - 52.544 / NEW <60-80%>
05./00. [PS3] FIFA 17 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.09.29} (¥7.800) - 12.343 / NEW <60-80%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 40, 2017 (Sep 25 - Oct 01)
02./00. [PS4] FIFA 18 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800) - 56.924 / NEW <60-80%>
09./00. [NSW] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800) - 12.896 / NEW <60-80%>
30./00. [PS3] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800) - 2.601 / NEW <40-60%>
twothunder
Member
no surprise with the Super Famicom Mini .
i guess we might see splatoon 2 in second place again.
it might take a few weeks before they sell the FEW shipment but it shouldn't be too much trouble unless it collapses completely
ArkhamFantasy
Member
There's two threads on the front page about how prominent microtransactions are in upcoming AAA games (Shadow of War and Battlefront 2). Are there alot of console/handheld japanese games with microtransactions in them?
Have japanese publishers talked about putting Free to play economies in their premium games the way EA/Ubisoft/Activision have?
Have japanese publishers talked about putting Free to play economies in their premium games the way EA/Ubisoft/Activision have?
Indeed: we're explaining why PS4 has almost reached total PSV software sales, even if there are much less games released on it, and you're basically confirming what I said, statement by statement.
The reason is that PS4 got much more important releases (even if some of them were shared with PS3), and the fact that overall sold very well is not odd or particularly surprising: even a declining IP like Resident Evil can sell on PS4 as the 4th or 5th best-selling PSV game. PS4 got blockbuster games like Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest that PSV didn't get. It shared some Dragon Quest games with PS3 and PSV too, but PSV only got two games in the franchise versus four on PS4 (and one is a mainline game). PS4 also got all AAA Western third party IPs, such as Grand Theft Auto and Call of Duty, which sell well in the aggregate.
In fact, these numbers tell more the absolute dreadful situation of PSV rather than an exceptional result by PS4. As I said, PSV became the Minecraft machine at a certain point, with not much else on it but occasional games targeted towards otaku or jRPG fans.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
PS4 won't beat PS3's 75 million simply due to a combination of less releases and shorter span but it will interesting and impressive if it holds year by year with the PS3.
Jarod McChicken
Member
PS4 vs Vita also means we are comparing a 2014 home console vs a 2011 handheld console, so yeah wether you find it impressive or not, at the very least it's a significant feat. It's also safe to assume that PS4 digital > PS Vita digital.
kunnikuman
Neo Member
PS4 was sharing all the DQ games with PS3 AND Vita? That's hardly true. If you had said just PS3 then it'd be true and I'm not sure where you're seeing big Tales, FF-RE-Yakuza for Vita.
Cherry picking numbers of late PS3 games when that has been phasing out is hilarious on your part.
PSV has and always will be cancerous to any software on it, much as the WiiU was even for some of the strongest brands in the market. Its a strange comparison unless the point is to compare cancerous environments to software which... I don't think is the intended case.
May as well compare a comatose patient to an out-of-shape runner and say that the out-of-shape runner is out-pacing the comatose patient.
I don't find the Switch outselling the WiiU (software) in a few months impressive because there's nothing 'impressive' about a market leader out performing a failed console.
test_account
XP-39C²
Pretty sure he ment "and/or". DQXI wasnt on PS3 nor Vita, otherwise all the other DQ games on PS4 are multiplatform within the Playstation ecosystem (well, excet DQX as well, but that was just recently released on PS4). He also didnt say FF-RE-Yakuza games were on Vita, only that those games in the serie declined over time.
Which late PS3 games do you think hes talking about by the way?
Jarod McChicken
Member
That would not be necessary indeed, I think the Switch is already getting a decent amount of praise around here. Cancerous and comatose systems, on the other hand, can only find their joy where it is, you know.
Laplasakos
Member
Actually you are partialy confirming what i said about PS4 having better software sales compared to Vita and not the other way around. PS4 managed to have better software sales not because of the important releases you are talking about, but thanks to numerous mid-small releases that sold decently. Even if this wasn't the case and it was all thanks to the big releases this doesn't make it less impressive for a home console that was released 2 and a half year after a portable. So i don't think it's something it should be downplayed but i have the impression that in these threads with PS4 it's always about moving goalposts.
Yep, this also.
Maybe you should read better my post. And the only DQ game Vita missed was Heroes (i already mentioned XI).
That'd be really unfortunate. Future Switch lotteries won't be the same without all the detailed stats.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Yet PS4 is keeping up at this moment, hence why it would be impressive if it continued to keep, on top of having less releases.
If it's not a temporary error but permanent there won't be lotteries at all. Whoever goes first buys the system. I expected this to happen at late November, not from now.
On the other hand Super Famicom Mini had so big shipment available for lotteries that almost everyone who participated in the morning won. There was no reason for them to happen and not sell the systems directly.
Moor-Angol
Banned
if the lottery was set on Saturday things should have been way different...