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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2015 (Oct 26 - Nov 1)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
Sincerely, I don't know what were they thinking when they decided to make a bundle.
Sequels don't sell consoles, the userbase already owns the console because they bought the first game.
I guess they were expecting people to upgrade from 3DS to New 3DS. But the game doesn't have New 3DS only features. There's no reason to jump because this game.
Still, I don't think anybody has to worry. In a couple of weeks starts the holiday season. It will sell the full shipment.
Cheers. Funny how they use a placeholder pic for the infirmation sheet
Usually I would agree with you (bundle makes no sense at frst glance), but it's quite clearly a bundle meant for the holidays first and foremost. I don't think Bamco expect(ed) it to sell out during the first couple of weeks, or get bought by players wanted to upgrade (audience doesn't seem like the type that would ever feel the need to upgrade).
As for the game itself, I'm expecting a sharp drop compared to the first one. DMC2 will definitely sell during the holidays, but it's after that that things will get hairy. Then again, Bamco probably expects as much.
BishopLamont
Banned
they're good if u have lowered expectations
Welcome to the Japanese console gaming industry.
DriftingSpirit
Member
What would you consider "good" numbers?
Japanese loves Squid amiibo, it seem. ._.
Nintendo announced restocks for several figures starting from November until the end of the year. That's simply Amazon getting a new stock of Splatoon amiibo.
It seems that Nintendo, as L~A said, has been restocking amiibo, specially the Splatoon ones all over Japan. In Niigata, in our favourite store COMG! we had some of that restock, however they are warning about how quickly these restock units could be sold, so they are pushing their clients to purchase as soon as possible.
They also started with the adverts in-store about Monster Strike, and pushed the reservations with some benefits for their clients who decide to do so.
They also started with the adverts in-store about Monster Strike, and pushed the reservations with some benefits for their clients who decide to do so.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
How quick do those amiibo disappear horuhe?
Afaik, at least in Mitsuke, they think that at the end of the bundle release week they won't have units.
Hero of Legend
Member
BishopLamont
Banned
40-50k
and that goes for all consoles
even if the wii u was doing 20k it'd still be bad
Even better: He's 2D and you actually have a few different poses in the box which can be slotted into the base.
Jon Carter
Member
I don't think they're trying to get people who played the first game to buy it. They just want a Disney 3DS bundle for the holidays - for girls or kids to buy it as Disney itself is a powerful brand. What game it is doesn't really matter that much. If kids are gonna buy a 3DS this Christmas, they want it to be their Disney bundle.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
The 3DS isnt even doing that...
BishopLamont
Banned
are they good numbers?
But did for years. It is not that far away from 20 millions install base. Actual 3ds numbers aren't good, maybe just decent for such an old and saturated console
Bitanator
Member
3DS has 19 million people who bought it already, it is on its final goodbye
Jon Carter
Member
The system that already sold 19.3 million units not consistently selling 40/50k a week -anymore- is not as important as a system that has sold 1.8/1.9 million units not consistently selling 40/50k a week -ever-. The 3DS had its beast mode, it just can't sell forever.
3DS is at 20mil, and is encroaching EoL and five years on the market.
I doubt any one thinks the current 3DS hardware numbers are "good" either.
CaviarMeths
Member
Oh, I didn't know the Mewtwo amiibo was out already.
Time to import to avoid dealing with NoA's incompetence.
Welp, guess Monster Strike is not only eating P&D lunch on mobile game but also on 3DS version lol.^_^
Does that bode badly or is a type of game where comg doesn't matter much?
Amiibo Update
In Takarajima, a store chain located in Gifu prefecture, Splatoon amiibo were sold out as expected, in less than 24 hours. They were really surprised about how quickly they were gone. So today they started to re-stock them again and expect more sold-outs while we are reaching the Splatoon bundle release date.
In Takarajima, a store chain located in Gifu prefecture, Splatoon amiibo were sold out as expected, in less than 24 hours. They were really surprised about how quickly they were gone. So today they started to re-stock them again and expect more sold-outs while we are reaching the Splatoon bundle release date.
Pictures thanks to Toki from Gifu.
40-50k at week means 160-200k a month, in a 4 weeks month, and 200-250k in a 5 weeks month.
...This is already hard for a console in the US, lol, let alone Japan.
200-250k is good for a healthy platform in a healthy environment and/or with healthy forward momentum. 160k is most certainly not outlandish, and 160k isn't hard for consoles in the states (unless WiiU) and there are three active consoles there rather than
You just can't have 90's expectancy, and applied it to today's market.
BishopLamont
Banned
actually thats pretty easy for monthly sales in the us, look at ps4
actually im not, even in today's market, the leaders can still pull in big numbers, 3ds numbers are weak because it's at the end of its life, while ps4 is lacking games and expensive
they might have reasons, but that doesn't change the fact that they're bad numbers overall
i guess it's my roundabout way of saying the market is shrinking because of mobile, but that there is hope i guess
BishopLamont
Banned
ps4 sales in japan would be a dead console like the wii u in the US and people are saying they're good numbers lol
2016 should be good though
sorry for double post
DriftingSpirit
Member
The difference being, of course, the current state of US is completely different from the current state of Japan.....
BishopLamont
Banned
well yeah obviously, the numbers alone show that
DriftingSpirit
Member
Why make the comparison if you understand this?
The PS2 barely did that, if your barometer for "good" is literally the best selling home console ever, then every other console is trash, & the PS4 has been chipping away at the PS3 launch aligned for a few months now (I think it's less than 300k behind now, even though the PS3 had two holiday seasons).
Even on NPD the PS4 had a lot of months selling less than 200k, if your expectations for the PS4 is to do as well as it's doing in the US with a populations three times less, maybe you should lower your expectations a little bit, 40k-50k is insane for any market not named the US, & that's solely because the US has a population of over 300 million.
Japan is about 40% the size of the US, so I'd just take whatever you would consider to be good in the US and multiply it by 0.4.
Of course it's very important to adjust for seasonality.
So for example, let's run September 2015, October 2014, and November 2014 for the two healthy consoles in the US.
October 2014 -> Projected Japanese Target:
[XB1] 179k -> 71.6 / 4 -> 17.9K per week
[PS4] 299k -> 119.4 / 4 -> 29.9K per week
November 2014 -> Projected Japanese Target:
PS4: 838k -> 335.2 / 4 -> 83.8K per week
XB1: 1238k -> 495.2 / 4 -> 123.9K per week
September 2015 -> Projected Japanese Target
XB1 = 294k -> 117.6 / 5 -> ~23.5K per week
PS4 = 356k -> 142.4 / 5 -> ~28.5K per week
This setup isn't perfect, but I think it's not a horrible baseline for comparison.
I would say that 20K per week is a reasonable result for an average month, but somewhat underwhelming. 25K is a good improvement, and 30K would be quite solid.
In the holiday season though (November/December), you want to go up very notably from that to make up for the slowness in the rest of the year. If you're only going up a bit, you'd want to be selling more like 40K+ a week to make up for all the lost progress during the holiday season.
Edit: In case anyone asks, the PS4 did about 1.2 million in December 2014 and the XB1 about 1 million in December 2014, so you're looking at ~100K and ~80K a week since it's a five week month. But basically consider good holiday sales to be two months of 80-120K a week offsetting the relative slowness in the rest of the year.
Of course it's very important to adjust for seasonality.
So for example, let's run September 2015, October 2014, and November 2014 for the two healthy consoles in the US.
October 2014 -> Projected Japanese Target:
[XB1] 179k -> 71.6 / 4 -> 17.9K per week
[PS4] 299k -> 119.4 / 4 -> 29.9K per week
November 2014 -> Projected Japanese Target:
PS4: 838k -> 335.2 / 4 -> 83.8K per week
XB1: 1238k -> 495.2 / 4 -> 123.9K per week
September 2015 -> Projected Japanese Target
XB1 = 294k -> 117.6 / 5 -> ~23.5K per week
PS4 = 356k -> 142.4 / 5 -> ~28.5K per week
This setup isn't perfect, but I think it's not a horrible baseline for comparison.
I would say that 20K per week is a reasonable result for an average month, but somewhat underwhelming. 25K is a good improvement, and 30K would be quite solid.
In the holiday season though (November/December), you want to go up very notably from that to make up for the slowness in the rest of the year. If you're only going up a bit, you'd want to be selling more like 40K+ a week to make up for all the lost progress during the holiday season.
Edit: In case anyone asks, the PS4 did about 1.2 million in December 2014 and the XB1 about 1 million in December 2014, so you're looking at ~100K and ~80K a week since it's a five week month. But basically consider good holiday sales to be two months of 80-120K a week offsetting the relative slowness in the rest of the year.
Right, that's why I put in "for an average month".
This is not exactly an average situation, and it needs to increase to about 80K a week starting next week to be comparable to a second place console result in the West which uh...
But if we're sitting in February and it's doing 20K-30K a week (which doesn't strike me as the world's most likely thing), I feel my three gradation bars would hold.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I'll ask you the same question.
What is "good" in this market? Are you making your claim with the state of Japan in mind or are you making a general statement based on the past?
I wouldn't say the PS4 was doing well in the US anyway, it was below the PS3 YTD launch aligned for most of the year, it only pulled ahead in September, it was doing mediocre numbers all year (I think it had a month where it sold an abysmal 179k).
People should just lower their expectations in those two markets, the PS4 will never come close to PS2 in Japan or the US.
People should just lower their expectations in those two markets, the PS4 will never come close to PS2 in Japan or the US.
Jon Carter
Member
If I can just chime in for a second. "The state of Japan" is good for context but shouldn't be an excuse to lower expectations to the ground. There are also people who think the Vita is doing well in Japan, "considering," but no, that there are reasons for poor or mediocre numbers does not automatically mean the numbers are not poor or mediocre.
A true 20k+/week baseline for a console in slow months would be all right, I agree. But this is not a baseline yet.
I also think it's very clear that the "unprecedented sales" up front were caused by their target audience having a lot more disposable income now that they were 7-8 years older as well as the consoles themselves being cheaper both in absolute and inflationary terms.
As such I expect things to run out of gas a lot faster.
Jon Carter
Member
And people + the industry were ready to move on from PS360. It was a long generation, so of course the launch window for PS4One would see more excitement. This generation will end up very front-loaded.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
40-50k baseline is just "good" for a console lol
What a ridiculous meter.
What a ridiculous meter.