right now (week 4):
3ds: 1,118,438
vita: 54,994
at this rate, vita might not break 80k for the five weeks, and 3ds could clear 1.5-1.6m.
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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2012 (Dec 17 - Dec 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
right now (week 4):
3ds: 1,118,438
vita: 54,994
at this rate, vita might not break 80k for the five weeks, and 3ds could clear 1.5-1.6m.
electroplankton
Banned
This might be a good argument for those people asking reasons why third parties shouldn't look to Vita for developing right now.
If sales equalled support, the Wii library would look a lot better.
I'm saying this since a good 10 years, but nobody ever listened on any of the forums I've been. 2005/2006/2007 it was Sonys turn to be mocked for their PSP/PS3 sales and (maybe) now it's Nintendos. It would be some sort of payback from the Sony fans. The situation won't change if both parties won't take a step backwards. Even so called "Sales-age geniuses" here participate in mocking systems for their sales and have a clear agenda, so it isn't the least bit suprising for me. I always had the opinion that you can only be a really good sales ager when you do not favor a company or system, because then you can't analyse things objectively.
When I started caring for sales numbers in 2001/2002 the sales agers back then only cared for the raw numbers and nothing else. There wasn't Sony fans mocking the GameCube figures (were there even Sony fans back then?), there just wasn't any mockery. Collecting, analysing and discussing numbers back then was such fun, but now it is a mess.
install base does matter quite a lot, unless you're a really small company like compile hearts and don't have to worry about selling 200,000 a game to break even.
the vita's current library is really sony's fault. they didn't really know what the vita was, and still don't, so neither does anyone else. there's also this air about them just not caring about the system at all. they have made some small gestures to turn it around, but i guess they're hurting too much to try and bring it above dreamcast levels.
nintendo's going to suffer similarly for the wii u. they didn't really know what the wii u was- they just wanted a tablet-thing out there because that's what families use right now. the really compelling table game is not from them and even if it was on the system, it's not that great of a sell ('play angry birds on your tablet... and watch tv!'). it'll have better support than the vita just from first-party stuff, but it'll be a really rough couple of years for them while sony and microsoft push them into the background.
i don't even know how they'd try and come back, especially if next gen drags on like this one did. maybe they'll have virtual reality ready by then.
3rd parties brought what they could to Wii.
There's debate for the quality of the support, but there is no debate regarding whether 3rd parties supported the Wii, they definitely did, specially if we look at the console's first 3 or 4 years.
In fact the amount of Wii 3rd party exclusives by far surpasses that of the PS3 or 360, in quantity at least, quality is up for debate.
electroplankton
Banned
With the differences that 3DS is actually able to sell third parties software, that Wii / PS3 never had such difference of installed base, and that PS3 had a great support from third parties to begin with.
A bloodbath.
maybe there was a big decline because of the new ps3 slim revision
Gianni Merryman
Member
Actually NSMBU charting at 9th position and then dropping at 22nd and 31st position in Germany doesn't seem to me to be too bad at all, not good but neither bad; the same game charted at 22nd position in NPD November charts for that matter, yet Wii U managed to sell 425k units.
Wii U has just launched so games on consoles with a way bigger userbase are more likely to chart higher, especially with all the big sellers that have released on PS3/XBox360 in November-December.
electroplankton
Banned
I still wonder how people can say anything about Wii U performance by looking at charting games. It seems obvious that no one among the launch titles can compete with Call of Duty, Just Dance, Assasssin's Creed, etc., in particular during holidays. I can't wait next year to read the same comments when next MS console launch titles won't chart at all after some weeks.
test_account
XP-39C²
The new PS3 revision doesnt really bring much advantages. It is smaller, but not really THAT much smaller than the previous PS3 Slim. It might have a bit lower power consumption too. Not many reason to upgrade to it. And no pricedrop to bring in more new buyers either.
It certainly matters, I just don't think it's proven to be a sound argument that a higher userbase automatically garners all the support. There are a myriad of reasons one might want to develop for the Vita instead of the 3DS and they can't all be nullified by a smaller userbase.
When they don't show on a Top 100, they're failing to compete with a lot more than that.
electroplankton
Banned
When one platform can barely reach 80k units during holidays, and the other one is already over one million in just one month, you can understand how the userbase is really a factor to consider. Not only 3DS is a problem for Vita: basically every active platform in the market is selling more; even PSP more than doubled Vita sales this week!
For curiosity, what are the myriad of reasons one might want to develop for the Vita? It's not only Vita vs. 3DS, it's developing for Vita against not developing for Vita (hence, developing for 3DS, PSP, PS3, Wii U, iOS, etc.). PSP saw much more announcements than Vita lately, guess why? Perhaps because PSP is still selling well, better than Vita, and there are no sign of transition from PSP to Vita?
test_account
XP-39C²
The 29c3 conference starts today by the way. I'm not sure when Fail0verflow will have their precentation though. But it means that we will most likely see a hacked WiiU within the next month. This might affect the hardware sales in a positive way.
shinra-bansho
Member
Why would one expect the "super slim" to have any major impact? It's still the same price as the CECH-3000 models. Also it's ugly as sin.
NPD tracking covers a month though, ergo a number like 243K for a game release near the end of the month being pushed into the 22nd spot isn't that unexpected. NSMBU debuted at 14th in the UK with the 40K HW number.
However, the complete absence of any other piece of software from the top 100 chart after a week on the market, with the only piece of software at 22 - and then at 31 a week later - doesn't really strike confidence. If a similar situation had occurred in Media Create/Famitsu, I don't think that would be taken as a good sign.
dragonfart28
Banned
The only true bomba is Vita.
electroplankton
Banned
Honest question: which other game should realistically have appeared in the chart?
Funny how sales equals support never applies to Nintendo, only to Sony or MS.
That´s the point Sonys action had no major positive outcome, Ps3 sales actually had a big decline compared to last year.
Vita sales are very low. I am aware.
It has two sticks, for one. Supposedly easy porting from PS3. The chance to be a big fish in a small pond. Because you can't bear to optimise your beautiful art for a 240p screen.
the androgyne
Member
You're right. The 3DS has 20x PSV hardware this week (and 10x any other) but it definitely doesn't have 10x or 20x the amount of support Vita has going into 2013. Disregarding the fact that certain 3DS games will obviously sell better than anything Vita has, the actual amount of upcoming releases is fairly even.
shinra-bansho
Member
I was told the Wii U's launch line-up was historically good. I don't know, Black Ops, considering it's the biggest third party franchise on the market, Scribblenauts, since it seemed to do okay in the US. The titles that did chart in week 48, instead of falling completely off the map.
Are you saying those placings are a positive sign?
Does anyone else just think Nintendo is poorly managed or just too small a company for its own good? Things like the initial 3ds software line up and the lack of 3ds features like an eshop, internet browser, etc for over 3 months. The pretty poor Wii U software line up for 2013, the huge software slump the wii saw well before the Wii U release, the delay of stuff like Nintendo Tvii, or features being released half baked, make me think that Nintendo has some serious internal issues in the management and workflow departments.
electroplankton
Banned
Those are not a myriad of reasons. And they are not even economically valid reasons (since you talked about why a software house should develop for Vita).
Two sticks and optimised beautiful art doesn't really matter in the handheld market. 3DS has two sticks as well with the CPP (and it wouldn't be surprising if the CPP itself has already sold more than Vita). And I don't see a software house saying "let's develop for Vita because it had two sticks!".
As for PS3 multi, well, it's so easy that Square, Konami, Capcom, EA, Ubisoft, etc. are developing their games for both hardware. Oh, well...
The chance for being a big fish in a small pond may be reasonable. But this is attracting ultra-niche games. And we have seen how GC and DC attracted software houses with this reasoning...
Nope. But I didn't expect much better for multi; of course people would have bought CoD on PS360, as usual. Online community is what matters in this case. How much Madden on 360 sold its first year in the market compared to Ps3 / Xbox version?
Scribblenauts is the only title that should have charted higher. But it's not an instant seller.
Captain Smoker
Member
I still don't get how people don't get their "new" announcement policy.
test_account
XP-39C²
What is the new policy?
don't announce a game until it's been on store shelves for a few months. then, slowly build hype through word of mouth.
Captain Smoker
Member
It isn't even new, everyone should know that they don't announce games months ahead by now.
I mean, they announce their Nintendo Directs one day before they stream it.
haha. xD
Are you expecting to see all portable development shift to the iPad / iPad Mini?
If not, why not? The userbase is certainly larger than the 3DS and is probably growing faster. Why should Square, Konami, Capcom, EA, Ubisoft, etc. bother when they can almost certainly make more money on iOS?
Because there are inherent benefits to every platform, regardless of userbase, that's why. That's why people make games for the 3DS, that's why people will continue to make games for the Vita. Will the 3DS gain more support? Almost certainly although you wouldn't know it to look at upcoming releases. The Vita will continue to get games until it's withdrawn from the shelves though.
If we look outside of Japan, you have to wonder why 3rd parties would bother with either platform. That said, this isn't the right topic to look outside of Japan.
Scribblenauts isn't even on the market outside US...Plus, the lineup was good for consumers (three exclusives titles and various multiplatforms games), but market-wise it's obvious that...what, CoD?...can't chart high on such a small userbase when competing againts titles selling on almost all the active userbase of the competitors (during holidyas there are not just the new buyers looking for games for their consoles)
I mean, look at Japan charts SW-wise and try saying that the Wii U was the best selling console or the second best selling console in the past three weeks...
Let's wait ans see HW numbers that will be released soon for PAL territories and it will be easier to judge
the androgyne
Member
Unfortunately for them they're a games company that now has to worry about building OS, web browsers, additional system functionality. That said, most of their expansion and working with external companies has probably been to aid this, leaving the development teams fairly untouched - their game output has and probably always will be slow because of the focus on quality. No one else would delay Pikmin 3 in a relative 'time of need' when it's already been in development for so long. Ultimately they see it more detrimental to release a poorly received product than go a few months without any product at all.
Most of the games that Vita is getting wouldn't sell significantly more on 3DS.
PES 2013 was ported on 3DS with dual stick support, and I heard great things about it.
The extra cost of developing multiplatform is fairly minor compared to the cost of developing for a single platform. In most cases the extra sales should be more than enough to cover the costs.
Japan really falls behind the West in terms of multiplat development, there should have been far more PS2/PSP/WII and PS3/360/PC (for titles intended for western release) last gen. As it turned out they only really got up to speed with PS3/360 multiplat for titles intended for western release, and way too many of those still fail to see a PC release.
This gen they should be developing multiplat PS3/PSV/WiiU and then PS4/720/PC from the start.
Japan really falls behind the West in terms of multiplat development, there should have been far more PS2/PSP/WII and PS3/360/PC (for titles intended for western release) last gen. As it turned out they only really got up to speed with PS3/360 multiplat for titles intended for western release, and way too many of those still fail to see a PC release.
This gen they should be developing multiplat PS3/PSV/WiiU and then PS4/720/PC from the start.
I agree.
But, if you think that they could sell more or equal, why bother developing for the "smaller" handheld in any case?
I'm not saying that this will not happen, but I'm just curious.
shinra-bansho
Member
Well, that was the overarching point.
Well then, assuming new buyers are consolidating around NSMBU. Just looking at NSMBU, does 9->22->31 indicate HW is moving particularly well?
I suppose it may have been leapfrogged by other software rising. But I don't think that would explain such a decline.
electroplankton
Banned
The difference, here, is that 3DS brings profits with a certain business model, iOS is bringing profits with another business model, Vita is not bringing profits with either models.
I mean, the situation speaks for itself: third parties (and also Sony actually) are not interested in developing for Vita; that doesn't mean that they don't develop at all, but they're putting minimum effort; some software house that sold greatly on PSP don't even have anything for Vita.
You said there are myriad of reasons to prefer Vita over 3DS: which reasons? And which reasons are economically efficient for a software house? I don't see any, if not relying on an ultra-otaku fanbase, which is still on PSP by the way.
The gap between 3DS and Vita, the post you quoted to begin with, is just one among the many reasons why software houses are not looking at Vita when taking their business decisions.
PS: mobile phone gaming has been popular in Japan since early 2000; it's not a new thing. Square Enix developed a brand-new Kingdom Hearts and some brand-new Final Fantasy for mobile phone between 2004 and 2007.
That's because Vita is not getting significant support, market-wise.
I really wouldn't jump to conclusions by just looking at chart position. How did 360 launch games sell in Germany? I'm sure that if you look at the same chart 7 years ago, you would see a similar situation (if you look at the time when PS3 was launched, situation could be even worse).
Pancakes R Us
Member
To what extent does this apply? They also announce lots of games well before launch. I wouldn't rely much on these 'near release' announcements, you'll only be disappointed come next year.
electroplankton
Banned
People will be disappointed anyway.
When Nintendo presented the 3DS at 2010 E3, they did with a bunch of games. Of course, not all games were supposed to be launch titles! Some of them have been just released (Animal Crossing, Paper Mario). But still, people were complaining. On the other hand, if you don't announce anything, people complain as well.
test_account
XP-39C²
Lol
I dont think Nintendo really has much policy on this now actually, because there are several of examples of Nintendo games being announced more than a few months before release. Bayonetta 2 and Smash Bros are already announced for example. Pikmin 3 was mentioned to be in developement for WiiU in 2011. Animal Crossing 3DS and Kid Icarus Uprising were announced in 2010. Then you also have examples like NintendoLand, only announced a few months before release.
Captain Smoker
Member
I don't expect anything until I see it.
My point is that it's not realistic that they won't release anything in 2013, so I think every statement about the lineup for the next year is useless until we know more. (though, we know the games for the first quarter)
That said: We get information at Nintendo Directs (which get announced a few days or weeks before they stream) or at the E3, or Nintendo Fall Conference.
You suspect. We don't actually know.
And yet the 2013 lineup seems to be comparable to 3DS in quantity.
It's much closer in capabilities to the consoles, making it the wiser choice for multi-plats. Do we know what the attach rate is for the 3DS and the Vita? It might have a smaller base buying more games, who knows?
Again, why develop for the 3DS if the return on investment for iOS devices is much higher? Yet, people do.
You say that as if the 2013 lineups were miles apart. They aren't. You're not talking about the reality of now, you're talking about how you think it should be.
Mobile gaming pre-iOS and mobile gaming post-iOS are utterly different ballgames.
You seem to think that all 3rd party development for the Vita has ceased. It hasn't. You seem to think it should cease. It won't. You're not looking past the larger userbase of the 3DS to see that there are other factors at play.
Fixed. XD
I agree with this. As much as I like Iwata, there's something off about them lately. Ever since 3DS failed to set the world on fire out of the gate, they've been off their game.
test_account
XP-39C²
I would guess that how easy it is to develope would play an important role here. Having more hardware power to work with is an advantage in this case i guess.
I think it has more to do with that those games doesnt have much more of a sales potential.
shinra-bansho
Member
Didn't know that about Scribblenauts.Scribblenauts isn't even on the market outside US...Plus, the lineup was good for consumers (three exclusives titles and various multiplatforms games), but market-wise it's obvious that...what, CoD?...can't chart high on such a small userbase when competing againts titles selling on almost all the active userbase of the competitors (during holidyas there are not just the new buyers looking for games for their consoles)
I mean, look at Japan charts SW-wise and try saying that the Wii U was the best selling console or the second best selling console in the past three weeks...
Let's wait ans see HW numbers that will be released soon for PAL territories and it will be easier to judge
02>05>08 New Super Mario Bros. U
06>09>12 Nintendo Land
05>12>NA Monster Hunter
16>NA>NA ZombiU
28>NA>NA Warriors Orochi
I wouldn't necessarily see those and think "2nd best selling system." But it definitely strikes me as more positive indication than:
09>22>31 New Super Mario Bros. U
65>NA>NA ZombiU
70>NA>NA Assassin's Creed III
74>NA>NA Nintendo Land
Especially considering the former is a top 30, while the latter is a top 100. If the latter was a top 30 the list would amount to:
09>22>NA New Super Mario Bros. U
As for HW numbers; if NoE was going to announce a number I imagine they would have done so by now. Nintendo's IR briefing graphs should reveal them though.
the androgyne
Member
The same reasons there have always been:
- Perception that only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo hardware or... Developers feel their game is better aligned with the average system owner. ie AC3L and NFSMW would have been lost on the 3DS audience at christmas, but were instead the headline games for Vita.
- Easier to port (ie NGS2+ or DOA5). Vita probably has a fighting game niche at the moment as well which probably influenced things a bit.
- Developers have a hardware feature or power preference
- There's also the opportunity to have a stand out system-defining title when there's little competition. Soul Sacrifice will probably go down as a memorable Vita title but would have been a forgotten sidenote to MH on 3DS.
KillerTravis
Banned
The support Vita is getting in Japan amounts to multiplatform ports of PSP and PS3 games, I don't think anyone should expect sales to pick up with that until a killer app exclusive gets released for it. Soul Sacrifice is not the killer app imo.
Why is this return much higher? Any figures for the companies you mentioned in your post above? Or are you just suspecting