Because the only thing that counts are three franchises selling 5% more. Both Nintendo and Sony need to have more than just this to be succesful.
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Media Create Sales: Week 9, 2013 (Feb 25 - Mar 03)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Because the only thing that counts are three franchises selling 5% more. Both Nintendo and Sony need to have more than just this to be succesful.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
What? Are you serious? I gave you my source go look. I did not pick and choose any numbers. I wanted everything to be console only but allowed MGS and Zelda because the handheld variations did not vary too much. Actually the handheld inclusion made Zelda look much better than it really is.
Go ahead. Choose numbers that make Nintendo look better. I would like to see you try bearing in mind this is a home console debate or the above franchises.
Just because Nintendo is undermined you suddenly think I am picking numbers to make Nintendo look better lol that is the definition of defensive. By all means prove me wrong though as I could very well be.
MGS Phantom Pain and ground zeroes were announced recently. Cross gen title most likely and I definitely see one coming out before Q2 2014.
Square announced a FF for PS4. Most likely Versus and cross gen since the other teams are busy with LR and FFXIV. Again could be out before Q2 2014 maybe even 2013.
GT6. Its been three years since GT5 and Kaz said the next wait would be less as assets from GT5 will be used. I can see this making the 2014 window possibly fall.
However since Nintendo is planning the triple combo this Q3/4 no I do not think so. Optimistically I think MGS can make it for 2013.
Cross gen does not matter in my opinion as WiiU is still competing with PS3.
I was trying the disprove the point the poster below said (I dunno why he called them Sony franchises though) :
LOL. Unless Nintendo fuck up big time or PS4 is surprisingly successful I doubt this will happen. It depends on if there is a price cut for WiiU, if the PS4's launch is good and the price of the PS4. Weren't PS2 and Wii the only home consoles that straight away started to outsell their competition and predecessors?
I talked about the likelihood in my previous post. Again this was just a hypothetical scenario where I was arguing that FF,MGS and GT are bigger than a Zelda remake, MK and 3D mario.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
You counted a few generations back (times when some of the franchises were in different states of popularity) to both bring FF up, and Mario Kart down. You even left FFXIII-2 out (FFX-2 actually sold 2 million if I recall which puts it about in the range of a mainline title, and it's obvious you left that one out so as not to draw attention to the lukewarm sales of XIII-2).
I can only assume you counted Mario Kart Double Dash to bring the average MK number down. It is most definitely not a modern representation of how well Mario Kart sells these days. I assume you included Mario Sunshine as well to lower the average on 3D Mario, whereas the market has changed for 3D Mario titles as well.
EDIT: Oh wait, I see you said console only. I take back my comment on 3D Mario. I could also be wrong about Mario Kart Wii sales. I was under the impression it sold more than 2 million.
I have a sinking suspicion that you're doing console only to keep Sony averages higher and Nintendo averages lower, because you picked and chose when to and when not to include handhelds.
Man, that SmokyDave guy's one sharp cat.
staticneuron
Member
At least alot of posters are pretty consistent with their opinions. I am curios as well about the long term effects of this price cut and the announced games.
Indeed he is!
OmegaTreeFish
Banned
First up - I didn't say it can't be done. I said GE suits vita more because of its duel sticks. Do you really think having to buy a CCP to play it that way puts it on even ground?
Also if they feel it suits vita then its good they made it on that rather than alter there vision to work on a different system. Sadly they are kind of doing that anyway by releasing a PSP version aswell which I would rather they didn't do. PSP support is prob one of vitas biggest enemies right now.
As I said with PSO2 it works over 3g. Also handhelds went just for when not at home.
It is on a decline, or downward trend, because each of the three games you listed sold less than the previous one. X arguably more than IX (not on first release/without the many rereleases), but quite a bit less than VIII or VII.
The thing with trends is that we expect them to continue, until the trend reverses. The trend hasn't yet reversed. IF the XIII sequels turn out to be any indication then the trend has considerably worsened too.
That a number appears big does not mean that there isn't a decline. The fact of the decline would be instantly obvious too if you had compared the number with another one from the series.
SMS never had a chance versus FC and SFC immediately outsold PS-Engine and Mega Drive. Thanks to Super Mario World, btw.
PS actually was the only leading home console which struggled at first.
I dont know what the game will achieve in sales but God Eater 2 on Vita looks stunning.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQqZ9GDvhw8
Sony must promote the PSVITA version with something.Maybe a PSV bundle or release the VITA version a week earlier.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQqZ9GDvhw8
Sony must promote the PSVITA version with something.Maybe a PSV bundle or release the VITA version a week earlier.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Mario Kart Handheld games are almost exactly the same as their console counterparts and have been since the beginning.
Super Circuit is an updated SMK, Mario Kart DS is basically halfway in between Double Dash and 64 and Mario Kart 7 is very close to the Wii version.
EDIT: If you average the entire series you only get a small uptick to about 2.1 million copies. Including the handheld games though makes the Wii version no longer anomalous.
Super Circuit is an updated SMK, Mario Kart DS is basically halfway in between Double Dash and 64 and Mario Kart 7 is very close to the Wii version.
EDIT: If you average the entire series you only get a small uptick to about 2.1 million copies. Including the handheld games though makes the Wii version no longer anomalous.
test_account
XP-39C²
It was probably not impossible indeed, but it would mean 1000 yes less in income per unit however. It is something that is being concidered and weight when these pricedrops are being done. Would dropping the price another 1000 yen mean a lot more sales? Things like that is being concidered.
Same thing with Nintendo and WiiU. Instead of pricing the WiiU at 26,250 yen and 31,500 yen, they could have priced the Basic model at 24,980 yen and the Premium model to 29,980 yen instead to get price parity with the PS3 (the 250GB and 500GB model respectively). But the same thing here, this would mean less income, and it is no guarantee that it would sell a lot more if they had priced it that way.
1000 yen might not sound like a lot, but it adds up. Same thing is it with production costs, that is why Sony went from 4 USB ports to two USB ports on the PS3, and why Nintendo doesnt include an ethernet or optical out port in the WiiU. Small things that doesnt cost much on its own, but the costs adds up when were talking about a lot of units.
"Whole" prices are also common when doing pricedrops, like 5000 yen or 10,000 yen, the same in the west with 50 or 100 euro/dollar. It is not that common to see like 6000 yen price drop ( or 60 euro/dollar) from what i know. Personally i dont think it has anything to do with pride or arrogance. I think it is only about calculating what the best pricedrop is, and also trying to make as much money as possible. I'm sure that Nintendo , Microsoft and Sony would love to sell their systems for 100 yen if that was economical feasable. Then tons of people would get the hardware and the software sales would have a much bigger chance to be huge
While it could be a bad sign, its worth to keep in mind that Comgnet (and Amazon and Tsutaya as well) might not represent the general situation in Japan. But we'll know soon enough with Soul Sacrifice, it is less than a week to we get the first sales numbers
I think that Media Create will differenciate the SKUs, so we can see how much the double pack will sell. This way we can see how many individual games that are sold eventhough that double pack excist. The only thing we're missing then is the digital download sales.
It might help if they could show gameplay without always needing to film it over some guys shoulder.
Seriously Sony. Seriously.
Wouldn't they just count the dual pack as two separate copies sold?
grimshawish
Banned
I prefer him holding it under the table.
Napalm_Frank
Member
What would be the number that if sales of Vita stabilize in it would keep it in the ''safe zone'' when it comes to releases. I mean it still gets them but in the long run. Would 20k be enough?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
20k is definitely safe. I think 30k would be ideal for a healthy platform (obviously not at this moment in time).
15 k is worrying and 10k for a new system is very bad.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I can see some of your arguments, but a few still stand.
You are taking a lot of liberties here assuming that GT, FF, and MGS will receive ports which could potentially release in the launch window. I could be wrong, but have any of those ports been announced? Do you really think FFVersusXIII will release any time soon?
Since we're including games (ports) which have not been announced for the PS4 I could easily throw out Animal Crossing, Mario Party, and Smash Bros. Nintendo could easily have a Wii U AC: NL port available this holiday season and it wouldn't require much work at all. City Folk sold over a million if I remember correctly. Mario Party has always sold well in Japan and doesn't seem to require a lot of work considering how many installments each generation that have been released.
Then smaller games (by Nintendo standards) like Yarn Yoshi could manage 100k sales quite easily. We don't know how Yoshi standalone titles perform because the last one was Yoshi Story.
I think for VITA 15k-20k would be the best scenario at this point.The games that are coming in March and April should help it at least to achieve that.I think that God Eater 2 will be released in May-June but unless Sony promotes the VITA version it wont help in the sales.There was also a rumour about FFXHD releasing in June but considering this is SE we are talking about.....there is no chance.
Software selling hardware? Wow! That's like...crazy!
Good for Vita. Even if numbers fall, they may at least stay above 10k for a while. Hopefully long enough until other significant releases.
How did Wii U manage to pull pass 10K that week? Seems like people really want to give the console a chance. A tag-team of killer-aps, followed by a decent flow of games, could really set this console on fire.
Good for Vita. Even if numbers fall, they may at least stay above 10k for a while. Hopefully long enough until other significant releases.
How did Wii U manage to pull pass 10K that week? Seems like people really want to give the console a chance. A tag-team of killer-aps, followed by a decent flow of games, could really set this console on fire.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Supposedly you can now take Monster Hunter 3G Ultimate online via the Wii U.
That's the only thing I can think of that would raise its sales without new software.
Why are people forgetting Google StreetView?!?! It's being marketed and is going to be Wii U's KILLER APP!!!
Hell yeah!
I'm actually surprised at how intricately made it is. It's cool walking around random streets.
It's just statistical noise, although every else did rise this week for some odd reason.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Oh I know its not likely at all but my argument was simply the sales power of the above franchises. It will be truly extraordinary if we ever see it happening though whereas nintendo's triple bomb is pretty likely.
Launch window is a different story which I have talked about in my previous posts. MGS and FFVersus will most likely be cross gen titles but not late ports like you are saying with AC NL. Furthermore MGS and FF sell far better on a console unlike AC which sells immensely on handheld. A port to the WiiU aint going to do as much.
I talked before how cross gen is still effective in reducing wiiU's momentum as the WiiU will still be competing with the PS3.
Oh and the FF Versus thing.....yeah thats more hope than anything else tbh.
4 Mario parties were released on GCN with the first selling 900,000 and the rest in the ballpark of 500 000
2 were released on Wii the first selling 1 400 000 and the second 600 000
1 was released on DS selling 2 000 000
If you look at this timeline we can see they can churn them out within a year but usually its on the same system. A 2013 MP on WiiU especially with the Hd jump seems unlikely.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
You have a point with the Mario Party games. It looks like the first one on a console usually sells boatloads with the others having steep fall offs.
For the console releases it looks like they specifically targeted Mario Party to be within a year's time of the launch - for the GC and Wii I mean. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Mario Party being a big release for the Wii U this holiday season.
off-topic: mario party wii u will be awesome with the 5th player mechanic (like nintendoland, 1 vs 4).
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Oh no doubt. Nintendo could do some amazing things with the title. If they do, and advertise accordingly, the game has mad potential for sales.
Wii party u (basically mario party) is comming out summerish
Oh I know its not likely at all but my argument was simply the sales power of the above franchises. It will be truly extraordinary if we ever see it happening though whereas nintendo's triple bomb is pretty likely.
Launch window is a different story which I have talked about in my previous posts. MGS and FFVersus will most likely be cross gen titles but not late ports like you are saying with AC NL. Furthermore MGS and FF sell far better on a console unlike AC which sells immensely on handheld. A port to the WiiU aint going to do as much.
I talked before how cross gen is still effective in reducing wiiU's momentum as the WiiU will still be competing with the PS3.
Oh and the FF Versus thing.....yeah thats more hope than anything else tbh.
4 Mario parties were released on GCN with the first selling 900,000 and the rest in the ballpark of 500 000
2 were released on Wii the first selling 1 400 000 and the second 600 000
1 was released on DS selling 2 000 000
If you look at this timeline we can see they can churn them out within a year but usually its on the same system. A 2013 MP on WiiU especially with the Hd jump seems unlikely.
Dont forget wii party. Its essentially mario party with different skin
Indeed!
but I hope not for your 57k Soul Sacrifice, it should sell more than that ;P
Let's put it this way:
- Soul Sacrifice demo got rated 13800 times on PSN (and maintained high 4.75/5 rating) also considering that people rarely rate games in PSN anyway, it should be a significant number of download for only a demo. (For the record but not really comparable, P4G in JPSN: 3629 rating. project diva:3117 & for the demo version: 4204 rating.)
- Sony has been giving physical card demos of soul sacrifice with each Vita sold since January 23.
(9.748 + 9.596 + 8.762 + 8.044 + 11.456 + 62.543) = 110.149 physical demo
Now we can assume that a minimum of 120k - 150k of Vita owners had the chance to try soul sacrifice demo at some point. Therefore, I expect good sales for next week considering that the demo was well recived here in gaf as well as famitsu review
10/9/9/9)Edit:
oh, I forgot about that. So it's around 200k download for the demo!
That makes it 300k! so even if only 30% of those were satisfied enough to get the game at launch, the 100k mark should be an easy hit.
test_account
XP-39C²
No, i think it has it's own barcode and is therefor counted as one own SKU (at least by Media Create, i think Famitsu will combine the two SKUs). Earth Defence Force 2017 Portable also had a double pack and sold about 15k in the first week (but technically 30k copies were sold).
Your assumption for "average" would still be flawed especially for GT.
GT3 -> GT4 -> GT5: 1,437,581 -> 1,066,749 -> 595,881
While the average of last 3 GT games are at 1 mil, GT6 is more likely to sell closer to 500K than 1 million unless there is a sudden surge of demand for the franchise.
michaelius
Banned
Sony Japan guy said demo was downloaded by 1 in 5 vita owners.
i wouldn't mind this.
GreenMakoEyes
Member
what exactly would be laughable about that?
If there's anything interesting about the Dynasty Warriors sales, it's the comparison with Professor Layton.
Both series had million-seller status (well, Layton was just under 1M) just last generation, and both series now seem to be stuck in the 300-400k range. Both series are WAY down from their peaks, yet still selling well enough to be profitable considering that neither series really uses a AAA development budget model.
It's just interesting seeing so many people calling for Level-5 to drop the Layton series (and it's an understandable position if you feel that they could be using these resources to work on something that would sell better than Layton's current position), but I haven't really noticed anyone calling for Koei to drop the Dynasty Warriors series, even though the series has fallen just as far within the span of a single generation. Is Koei really that useless that people just don't think Koei is capable of using their resources to come up with anything that can sell better than 300-400k?
remember how it was announced at the sony e3 conference , ahah
Glass Rebel
Member
"Online? What the fuck?!"
I remember like it was yesterday. Truly the greatest Square-Enix moment.
I missed them too which is why I did one! Wii U is probably way over ten years.
test_account
XP-39C²
I think its possible, but i dont think it will be the only Final Fantasy game. At least it seems very unnecessary to me to get the Square Enix guy to arrive at the PS4 announcement event only to announce an announcement for E3 about FF14 hehe.
shinra-bansho
Member
People are expecting a 3D Mario, a Mario Kart and Zelda: Wind Waker HD this Holiday? I guess if Nintendo rushjobs them.
Also I wouldn't be surprised if Ground Zeroes was cross-gen and launch for 720/PS4.
Also I wouldn't be surprised if Ground Zeroes was cross-gen and launch for 720/PS4.
Pure gold.
It had to be done.
Statistical noise, as far as Famitsu is concerned. Probably Media Create too. I wouldn't read too much into it... yet.
Sounds about right.
I expect Yoshi, Wind Waker, and one of 3D Mario/Mario Kart, but not both. Perhaps Retro's game will be done too. It was supposedly in playable form last year, so...
metalmonstar
Member
What is up with the random 3DS software boost. Software this week looks much more healthy than it has been the last couple of weeks. Congrats to the video for increasing its sales, and showing a decent software offering. Hopefully the Vita can sustain this. I am thinking next week it may be in the 40,000 range.
In other news the Wii U drop is slowing it seems although it still doesn't bode well for the new console.
In other news the Wii U drop is slowing it seems although it still doesn't bode well for the new console.
I think Mario Kart, Yoshi, WWHD, and MAYBE Bayonetta 2 are in the cards for this holiday.
No way for Bayonetta 2. It barely looks like they've even started development in the January Nintendo Direct. That's sometime next year, probably Q3-4.