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[Xeke]

As Arphamnd B has correctly pointed out, the next exciting thing to watch is the trending of 360 vs Wii.

My guess is that relative sales of the Wii will continue to trend down, though overall the sales of the Wii will go back up due to season effects. The more accurate chart to use to take out season affects would be a monthly marketshare percentage chart.

Absolutely I think 360 will outsell the Wii in September with the Elite price-drop, and will continue to outsell it for the remainder of the year. In fact, I could be so bold and say that outside of NSMBWii totally changing the game (which I doubt) this could be one of the last month's the Wii outsells the 360 in the US.

There's not a single game on the Wii's short-term horizon that will change its fortunes. People keep pointing out NSMBWii, and considering Nintendo's track record you have to respect the chance it has, but it's not a foregone conclusion that NSMBWii will turn around the momentum.

Going into next year, unless the Wii Vitality sensor is a game-changer on the order of Wii Fit (again, Nintendo's track record shows it's a possibility), then I can see MS having an incredibly strong 2010 with a massive lineup of games, carrying the momentum with a big PR-campaign throughout the year hyping up Natal.

I don't think this is a "wait for" type post either. As another poster here pointed out, MS' sales have been trending UPWARDS as their value proposition is continually getting better and better.

Unless Nintendo does something unexpected (or launches a more connected WiiHD), I don't see how they're going to maintain their lead, and then be able to even keep up. And the PS3 is starting to hit the point of irrelevance. People are calling this NPD boring, but I think it's one of the most interesting in a long time.

The next 12 months are going to be VERY interesting.

Bahahaha. I 100% seriously bet you my account and $1,000 if this is the last month the Wii outsells the 360. No make it $5,000. Or even my liver.

Hell I bet the Wii outsells the 360 every calender month in 2010.

 

[Vinci]

What this implies is that there is less price sensitivity for the Wii, unlike the PS2, PS3 or 360 which are more traditional consoles with a lot of fence sitters. Anybody that is attracted to the Wii, would have already been attracted and a $50 premium wouldn't keep a large number away. Sure you'll get a nice bump in the month the drop happens, but I don't think you'll see a sustained increase... which is actually somewhat rare in general.

The rest of your post is fine, your opinion, etc. and whatnot - but the bolded part (mine) confuses me to no end. How is the Wii not a traditional console? I'd go so far to say that it's more traditional than either the PS2 or PS3.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Less surprised about Punch-Out than Starfy.

I mean, really? What marketing has this game received?

 

[markatisu]

Less surprised about Punch-Out than Starfy.

I mean, really? What marketing has this game received?

Its had a bunch of commercial airtime on kids networks and there is a giant display for it at Toys R Us

I would guess that its getting the Kirby fans, my wife even said "whats that" when we were in Toys R Us last time.

 

[birdchili]

anecdotally, i know quite a few wii-fence-sitters... they're not folk who would buy a dozen games a year, but they had ps2s and currently either don't much game, or have a ds.

the best thing that nintendo can do (as always) is get more really brilliant standout software into the public consciousness.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Less surprised about Punch-Out than Starfy.

I mean, really? What marketing has this game received?

Starfy sold well last month, so it's not too much of a surprise that it did decently again this month. I haven't seen too much marketing, but I don't tend to watch the kind of television that the game would be advertized during.

 

[Vinci]

anecdotally, i know quite a few wii-fence-sitters... they're not folk who would buy a dozen games a year, but they had ps2s and currently either don't much game, or have a ds.

the best thing that nintendo can do (as always) is get more really brilliant standout software into the public consciousness.

Any of them waiting for MH3? I know a couple of people who are.

 

[Omar Ismail]

The rest of your post is fine, your opinion, etc. and whatnot - but the bolded part (mine) confuses me to no end. How is the Wii not a traditional console? I'd go so far to say that it's more traditional than either the PS2 or PS3.

Traditional as in "traditional gamers".

It's generally accepted wisdom that the Wii has expanded the market and brought in an entirely new audience that didn't own a console beforehand. Considering a majority of Wii owners are not traditional owners, that makes the Wii a non-traditional console in that sense.

Clear?

 

[Christine]

It's really hard to construct an argument one way or the other about Wii's price elasticity of demand because it's only ever had the one price.

 

[Vinci]

Traditional as in "traditional gamers".

It's generally accepted wisdom that the Wii has expanded the market and brought in an entirely new audience that didn't own a console beforehand. Considering a majority of Wii owners are not traditional owners, that makes the Wii a non-traditional console in that sense.

Clear?

You could make the same argument that the PS2 brought in people who weren't traditionally gamers. Wasn't that sort of the reasoning behind DVD playback at the time? And the PS3, for that matter, since it's not 100% a games console and more a hybrid device.

 

[Christine]

You could make the same argument that the PS2 brought in people who weren't traditionally gamers. Wasn't that sort of the reasoning behind DVD playback at the time? And the PS3, for that matter, since it's not 100% a games console and more a hybrid device.

PS3 and 360 adhere to the traditional impetus for platform transitions in this industry - increases in graphical and processing power. Wii largely does not.

 

[Omar Ismail]

It's really hard to construct an argument one way or the other about Wii's price elasticity of demand because it's only ever had the one price.

That's why it's called a theory

You could make the same argument that the PS2 brought in people who weren't traditionally gamers. Wasn't that sort of the reasoning behind DVD playback at the time? And the PS3, for that matter, since it's not 100% a games console and more a hybrid device.

You could argue at the beginning the PS2 brought in non-traditional gamers, but after the first couple of years I'd argue gaming became the dominant use of the machine, and thus the dominant audience.

Personally, I think the PS3 is also a somewhat non-traditional console, as I do think there's a decent percentage of owners that use it primarily as a media device. You could also argue that the PS3 is more attractive to "traditional" gamers though, and therefore I'd argue more price sensitive. Note, you could probably substitute the word "core" here for "traditional" but I don't like the connotations of "core".

 

[birdchili]

Any of them waiting for MH3? I know a couple of people who are.

definitely not. none of them have even heard of it i'm fairly certain. they're just about without exception very "casual" gamers, who were already very casual last gen, when they bought a handful of ps2 games. at least one is still pondering a 360 for halo as well (and there isn't a chance in hell they'll end up with multiple consoles).

 

[marc^o^]

The biggest one is obviously price drop.

The biggest one is Christmas presents; titles such as Toy Story Mania, Soccer Academy, NSMB, WSR, Mario & Sonic, Your Shape, EA Active Sports 2, WiiFit+, etc. Not the traditional hardcore games, but the perfect presents for kids and families. And this is what Q4 is all about.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

You could argue at the beginning the PS2 brought in non-traditional gamers, but after the first couple of years I'd argue gaming became the dominant use of the machine, and thus the dominant audience.

But gaming is pretty much the only use of the Wii, so by that definition, the Wii is certainly a traditional console.

If we're simply arguing that it's expanded the audience by bringing in people who weren't playing games before, then the PS2 did the same thing with folks buying the system just for GTA or Guitar Hero or something like that. It's not really any different.

 

[Vinci]

But gaming is pretty much the only use of the Wii, so by that definition, the Wii is certainly a traditional console.

If we're simply arguing that it's expanded the audience by bringing in people who weren't playing games before, then the PS2 did the same thing with folks buying the system just for GTA or Guitar Hero or something like that. It's not really any different.

That's my point of view: If someone buys a Wii, they are by default interested in playing at least one game on the thing and likely more than one. Which is very traditional, from my perspective anyway.

I get what he's saying though to an extent, but I think it's six of one and half a dozen of another.

 

[poppabk]

Outside of portables, since when has "new colors" ever been an impetus for boosting sales?
Furthermore, the Wii is already ridiculously slim and lite, not sure what they can do with that.

The biggest one is obviously price drop. My theory on that is thus: The Wii is a love it or hate it console, very polarizing. Meaning, the people that like it REALLY like it, and the people that don't like it, really don't like it. What this implies is that there is less price sensitivity for the Wii, unlike the PS2, PS3 or 360 which are more traditional consoles with a lot of fence sitters. Anybody that is attracted to the Wii, would have already been attracted and a $50 premium wouldn't keep a large number away. Sure you'll get a nice bump in the month the drop happens, but I don't think you'll see a sustained increase... which is actually somewhat rare in general.

My theory is thus: the Wii is a love it or hate it console on GAF and gaming focused websites. In the real world, where most of the console sales for all platforms come from, it is seen as a device for playing games, the same as the PS2, PS3, 360, DS, PSP. People play one or see an ad and decide they might want one. They then look at the price and decide whether it is worth it or not.
Your argument is that "casual" gamers are somehow uninformed and at the same time adamant that they want a Wii at any price.

 

[Omar Ismail]

The biggest one is Christmas presents; titles such as Toy Story Mania, Soccer Academy, NSMB, WSR, Mario & Sonic, Your Shape, EA Active Sports 2, WiiFit+, etc. Not the traditional hardcore games, but the perfect presents for kids and families. And this is what Q4 is all about.

hmmm that is a good point.

And with demand outstripping supply last year, there could be a backlog of demand that wouldn't have been spent through this year, and is instead waiting until this Christmas.

I just don't see that happening. Last year the Wii was sold out all throughout the last calendar year selling major quantities AND Nintendo holding some onto the side stockpiling for X-Mas making for a huge Christmas season. The trend is completely different this year. Wii's are on store shelves, there are even retailer DISCOUNTS on the damn thing. Therefore I think there won't be the massive surge in demand and christmas sales that saw the Wii reach ridiculous heights like last year, and instead (ironically enough) will follow more traditional trends Meaning, the November and December numbers will be a multiple of the September/October numbers.

I think September/October will go to 360, and MS will ride that momentum into the holiday months as well.

Your prediction of 3x 360 sales is ... well... insane.

 

[marc^o^]

Your prediction of 3x 360 sales is ... well... insane.

Other gaffers called me insane 3 years ago, as I predicted Wii would outsell PS3 and 360 combined, based on its casual gamer appeal. I think the wii has its strongest Christmas lineup this year, and the 360 its weakest. By that I'm not talking about quality of gamer titles. I'm talking about the right titles to sell consoles during this specific period of the year.

 

[elrechazado]

I did I think it's funny. But you act like Sony fans are the only crazy ones. We're all crazy. Okay so maybe Sony fans have a special breed of craziness.

In this thread though, your posts come off as a lot more fanboyish than any Sony defenders.

Spoiler

junior fight

You take comedy where you find it. The .0001 % of hardcore sony fans who are highly represented in online forums amuse me to no end. The xbot fanboys aren't even funny, they're more like spastic retarded 4th graders - just not as fascinating to me.

 

[Sonos]

Other gaffers called me insane 3 years ago, as I predicted Wii would outsell PS3 and 360 combined, based on its casual gamer appeal. I think the wii has its strongest Christmas lineup this year, and the 360 its weakest. By that I'm not talking about quality of gamer titles. I'm talking about the right titles to sell consoles during this specific period of the year.

The strongest Christmas lineup is the systems with Modern Warfare 2 on it.

 

[Narcosis]

Well, I'm glad to see Punch Out stay in the top 20, I really think the game deserves every bit to sell on the same level as the Wii games that always hang around the top 10 charts. It's my favorite game on the system since Galaxy.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Bahahaha. I 100% seriously bet you my account and $1,000 if this is the last month the Wii outsells the 360. No make it $5,000. Or even my liver.

Hell I bet the Wii outsells the 360 every calender month in 2010.

Even for the Halo:ODST and Halo:Reach release months?

 

[Struct09]

Less surprised about Punch-Out than Starfy.

I mean, really? What marketing has this game received?

I've seen ads for Starfy on movie theater screens

 

[Xeke]

Even for the Halo:ODST and Halo:Reach release months?

Well seeing as how ODST comes out in 2009, when I said 2010, and I don't know what Nintendo has planned for whenever Reach comes out I'll say yes. Anybody that wants either of those games already has Halo 3 and thus a 360.

 

[Rightisright]

Just wait until the PS4 is out.......

 

[MWS Natural]

Top 20 posted yet?

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24851

Prototype

Lol Wollan:lol

What happened with him?

 

[tenten]

What would be interesting is that if the Wii does not drop the price this year.

Then the 360 will have a chance this holiday, especially if they are doing a price drop.

At this point in the US, I don't see how the demand of the Wii can go up while others consoles stay the same without a price drop on the console.

 

[Yoshichan]

Just wait until the PS4 is out.......

Get out of here.

 

[markatisu]

Well seeing as how ODST comes out in 2009, when I said 2010, and I don't know what Nintendo has planned for whenever Reach comes out I'll say yes. Anybody that wants either of those games already has Halo 3 and thus a 360.

Even the monster that was Halo 3 only caused the 360 to "win" by 25k if I remember correctly

 

[Firestorm]

I bought a Wii to surf the net on my TV and show off pictures when family comes over.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

1998: Metal Gear Solid, Panzer Dragoon Saga, Ocarina of Time, Half-Life
2001: Grand Theft Auto III, Gran Turismo 3, Shenmue II, Ico
2004: Halo 2, San Andreas, Metal Gear Solid 3, Half-Life 2

2007: Super Mario Galaxy, Halo 3, The Orange Box, Puzzle Quest
2010: Super Mario Galaxy 2, Halo Reach, Half-Life 2: Episode Three, Bayonetta

That doesn't really have much to do with my post. You said every generation has it's best showing every 3 years, not in every 3 years there's a gaming blowout.

Y hello thar Mantorok and Phoenix.

Finally converted to Gaf (and hopefully VGPress) instead of staying in ShitSpot?

That's how it is. You either get perma-banned as a funny joke character or post long enough to see yourself become an unfunny joke character.

"You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain."

 

[EmCeeGramr]

Does anyone have the other Wollan drawing? It's the one of the 360 climbing a rope and sweating while the PS3 rockets to the heavens on the back of a PS2.

 

[charlequin]

All I'll say is that, in true Animal Crossing/Wii Music fashion, the games weren't as good for the consumers as Nintendo thought they would be.

Which raises the question of why Nintendo has failed to produce any software that was "good" for consumers in over a year since Wii Fit, which in turn further raises the question of why Nintendo's strategy has involved placing a high-risk bet on three internal titles that must succeed for their year to turn out at all decently.

All of the "lolz Nintendo doesn't need third parties their own software is solid gold enuff" arguments of the past turn to ash at the touch when Nintendo's own software is, indeed, not solid gold. I don't think there's actually a good explanation for Nintendo's strategy of repeatedly taking risk valves -- third-party software, price drops, B-list internal titles, basically any Western games at all -- unilaterally off the table so that when their own software strategy fails or stumbles there's nothing left to pick up the slack.

Obviously, they have more to gain by putting out new and different software that could potentially appeal to new audiences.

Sure, when these two strategies have identical real costs, opportunity costs, and ease of achievement. However, in the world of reality, price drops are easy to achieve and have little opportunity cost, while effectively targeting markets with software is extremely difficult (Nintendo's success to date in this area is already extraordinary and, as the last year of software has shown, not necessarily sustainable) and comes with constant attendant opportunity costs regarding what other software you don't use your staff to develop. There's a reason that, historically, companies have pursued both strategies rather than taking one off the table.

Hell I bet the Wii outsells the 360 every calender month in 2010.

I would not bet my liver on this.

 

[thestopsign]

The strongest Christmas lineup is the systems with Modern Warfare 2 on it.

Bullshit. Who is going to buy Modern Warfare 2? The same exact people who have already bought, enjoyed, and beaten Modern Warfare 1. It isn't going to be a system seller, because the first game already brought in all the people who wanted the game. The strongest line-up is going to be the one that compels new people to buy the system. The Wii has this with New Super Mario Bros. along with a bunch of other titles already mentioned on this page.

I think we'll see a mild lull here for Wii sales until November, and it will then spike up again. Even the Gamecube put up surprising numbers during the Holiday season. Nintendo and all it's hardware and software thrive even more so than normal during the Holiday season, and I think you'll see that in just a few months time. So anyone counting the Wii down and out at this point might be surprised in a few months when they see the numbers.

 

[Sohter.Nura]

Bullshit. Who is going to buy Modern Warfare 2? The same exact people who have already bought, enjoyed, and beaten Modern Warfare 1. It isn't going to be a system seller, because the first game already brought in all the people who wanted the game. The strongest line-up is going to be the one that compels new people to buy the system. The Wii has this with New Super Mario Bros. along with a bunch of other titles already mentioned on this page.

I think we'll see a mild lull here for Wii sales until November, and it will then spike up again. Even the Gamecube put up surprising numbers during the Holiday season. Nintendo and all it's hardware and software thrive even more so than normal during the Holiday season, and I think you'll see that in just a few months time. So anyone counting the Wii down and out at this point might be surprised in a few months when they see the numbers.

Agreed.

I would go as far as saying that I think that Modern Warfare 2 will sell less than the first Modern Warfare :0

 

[Firestorm]

Agreed.

I would go as far as saying that I think that Modern Warfare 2 will sell less than the first Modern Warfare :0

Month 1? Hell no.
Lifetime? Maybe.

 

[Cipherr]

PS3 and 360 adhere to the traditional impetus for platform transitions in this industry - increases in graphical and processing power. Wii largely does not.

There was a time when the traditional impetus for platform transitions also included a new fucking controller design, but we arent going to go and call the PS2 a non traditional console are we?

Im sorry but the statement was just stupid as a whole, and should have been left out of the post. It made no sense and just cant be decently argued in favor of.

 

[Chumly]

.

 

[creamsugar]

Well we already know Conduit is outside the top 20 with 60-70k

This is a wrong number.

 

[zero_suit]

Hmm, Wii sales are slowing down but it's performance in Nov. and Dec. will determine how soon it needs a price drop.

 

[Sohter.Nura]

This is a wrong number.

Is 60~70 k it's second month number?

 

[Chumly]

This is a wrong number.

Whats the correct number??


Also BAN ANIHAWK!

 

[jay]

Whats the correct number??


Also BAN ANIHAWK!

Apparently sarcastic is another word for liar.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This is a wrong number.

How do you figure? AniHawk has NPD numbers.

 

[kame-sennin]

Sure, when these two strategies have identical real costs, opportunity costs, and ease of achievement. However, in the world of reality, price drops are easy to achieve and have little opportunity cost, while effectively targeting markets with software is extremely difficult (Nintendo's success to date in this area is already extraordinary and, as the last year of software has shown, not necessarily sustainable) and comes with constant attendant opportunity costs regarding what other software you don't use your staff to develop. There's a reason that, historically, companies have pursued both strategies rather than taking one off the table.

Yes, there are opportunity costs to developing 'blue ocean software' - software that targets new customers and pushes hardware. And it is also true that there are no opportunity costs in cutting the price. What you neglect to mention is that a software strategy, if successful, has no downside. The opportunity cost is payed off, so to speak, and hardware sales are boosted without loss of revenue. A price cut, on the other hand, can only result in a Pyrrhic victory. Nintendo will increase sales, but loose potential revenue. Logically speaking, even if Nintendo is planning a price cut, they must try to boost sales with software FIRST to make sure that they aren't depriving themselves of a win:win scenario.

On a more psychological level, there is also the fact that Iwata has been burned by price cuts in the past. Cutting the price of the Gamecube did not change that console's fortunes. And this generation we have seen price cuts usually result in a temporary sales bump. When attempting to guess Nintendo's next move, all that's really important is what their executives believe, not what anyone on gaf believes to be true. And all we have heard from Iwata since the beginning of this gen is that price cuts do not create demand, they simply boost sales for a short period of time.

 

[Loudninja]

How do you figure? AniHawk has NPD numbers.

So does creamsugar.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So does creamsugar.

I was unaware. What are the real numbers then?

 

[Tiktaalik]

I was unaware. What are the real numbers then?

0.

Conduit sold 0 copies.


It's a cover up by Sega.



THE TRUTH MUST BE KNOWN

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Nintendo doesn't have much to worry about with the Wii. Supply met demand quite some time ago, which explains the trailing sales. Whether it really was a fad or not depends on how it fares throughout the year. I wouldn't count on a price reduction either. I don't know how much a Wii costs to make but Nintendo is probably making a killing on the hardware. Why cut hundreds of millions of dollars in profit for a temporary sales boost? Nintendo dropped the Gamecube price to $99 in fall 2003 and people still didn't give a fuck.