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[The Hermit]

The only thing I care this time is how many copies Little King's Story sold... this game deserves it.

 

[AniHawk]

The only thing I care this time is how many copies Little King's Story sold... this game deserves it.

Under 12k.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

^^^Anihawk be honest...is what you posted earlier how much "The Conduit" sold last month?

Which raises the question of why Nintendo has failed to produce any software that was "good" for consumers in over a year since Wii Fit, which in turn further raises the question of why Nintendo's strategy has involved placing a high-risk bet on three internal titles that must succeed for their year to turn out at all decently.

All of the "lolz Nintendo doesn't need third parties their own software is solid gold enuff" arguments of the past turn to ash at the touch when Nintendo's own software is, indeed, not solid gold. I don't think there's actually a good explanation for Nintendo's strategy of repeatedly taking risk valves -- third-party software, price drops, B-list internal titles, basically any Western games at all -- unilaterally off the table so that when their own software strategy fails or stumbles there's nothing left to pick up the slack.

It's amazing that Nintendo still doesn't "get it". The only thing more amazing than that is how their rabid fans defend these decisions.

 

[Christine]

There was a time when the traditional impetus for platform transitions also included a new fucking controller design, but we arent going to go and call the PS2 a non traditional console are we?

Im sorry but the statement was just stupid as a whole, and should have been left out of the post. It made no sense and just cant be decently argued in favor of.

I'm certainly not going to contest that Sony's focus on sustaining innovations has centered on graphics and the storage media rather than interface. I'm just saying that the marketing and sales focus has traditionally been on increased silicon capability at platform transitions. And if we feel like being pedantic, they did add analog buttons.

I was shooting more for stating a valid interpretation of the statement than actually trying to defend it, to be honest. I'm not a fan of 'traditional console' as a descriptive label myself, and I'm not really sold on the argument that label was employed to support. So relax.

Sure, when these two strategies have identical real costs, opportunity costs, and ease of achievement. However, in the world of reality, price drops are easy to achieve and have little opportunity cost, while effectively targeting markets with software is extremely difficult (Nintendo's success to date in this area is already extraordinary and, as the last year of software has shown, not necessarily sustainable) and comes with constant attendant opportunity costs regarding what other software you don't use your staff to develop. There's a reason that, historically, companies have pursued both strategies rather than taking one off the table.

On the other hand, Iwata's refusal to drop price despite the validity of this argument does provide some support to the notion that at least he -believes- that Wii's price elasticity is low enough that both the direct and knock-on benefits of a price cut don't outweigh the cost of doing a cut. My own instinct is that Wii's PEoD is clumped around certain threshold points, and that there wouldn't be a significant long-term effect on sales before doing a relatively extreme cut to $150.

 

[shykyoichi]

Even the monster that was Halo 3 only caused the 360 to "win" by 25k if I remember correctly

Shhhh... Let them continue with their delusion. Don't forget they can all see the future.

 

[AniHawk]

^^^Anihawk be honest...is what you posted earlier how much "The Conduit" sold last month?

scitek wanted me to humor him.

Here's the thing: I may or may not have correct numbers. I don't want everyone going around saying I do.

 

[Christine]

I may or may not have correct numbers. I don't want everyone going around saying I do.

So your numbers are in quantum superposition as both valid and invalid until they decohere via independent confirmation?

 

[AniHawk]

So your numbers are in quantum superposition as both valid and invalid until they decohere via independent confirmation?

Bees are on the what now.

 

[pgtl_10]

scitek wanted me to humor him.

Here's the thing: I may or may not have correct numbers. I don't want everyone going around saying I do.

I'd say too late. The IGN boards already picked it up.

 

[Christine]

Bees are on the what now.

10-4, good buddy. I'll try not to blow your cover.

 

[elrechazado]

Shhhh... Let them continue with their delusion. Don't forget they can all see the future.

Psst, the wii is currently selling one third of what it sold back then. The xbox is remaining constant. The delusion seems to be that the wii's sales will continue at their absurd 600-800k per month clip from years past. That's what is called a trend.

Personally I highly doubt the 360 will outsell the wii in the npd numbers for any significant period, but as the ps3 and wii drop yoy, and the 360 remains constant, suddenly saying that we might see new patterns isn't so ludicrous now is it?

 

[CamHostage]

I really wish they broke out DSi/DS sales like we get from the Japanese sales charts because it might help explain the DSiWare strategy (if most of the systems are Lites, then it's no wonder they're holding back). Still, 500k for the DS platform as a whole is pretty cool.

Yeah, that's something I've been trying to figure out too, I was really shocked by that controversy over IGN's Nintendo Minute that Nintendo said DSi's been doing better at launch than DS, DS Lite and Wii, even with the shortages on everything but DSi, that math did not at all fit my impression of the market. (Kotaku did some of the math with the July Nintendo sales figures, I don't know if they botched the math?) And I figured those numbers must be readily available since everybody Nelson'ed Matt for his screw-up. So, does any tracking service carry hardware numbers on DSi, or is it all a guessing game?

 

[Foil]

Damn SEGA was right. It is having some nice legs.

You really don't know what the term 'legs' means do you? Selling around 60k in your second month does not equal legs...

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

You really don't know what the term 'legs' means do you? Selling around 60k in your second month does not equal legs...

If you sold 72,000 in your first month than it would.

 

[Christine]

So, does any tracking service carry hardware numbers on DSi, or is it all a guessing game?

Nintendo does their own tracking, and I'd venture to guess that it's broken out as part of the NPD subscription report.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Do we have Little King Story numbers?

 

[elrechazado]

If you sold 72,000 in your first month than it would.

I think month two is a bit silly to be talking about legs. The games everyone talks about having legs lately are 2005-2006 games still appearing in the top ten. A game selling sub 100k on its second month is a bit premature to talk about.

 

[The Hermit]

Under 12k.

Sorry, but you probably the only poster whose number I would hardly believe...

 

[Kilrogg]

Which raises the question of why Nintendo has failed to produce any software that was "good" for consumers in over a year since Wii Fit, which in turn further raises the question of why Nintendo's strategy has involved placing a high-risk bet on three internal titles that must succeed for their year to turn out at all decently.

All of the "lolz Nintendo doesn't need third parties their own software is solid gold enuff" arguments of the past turn to ash at the touch when Nintendo's own software is, indeed, not solid gold. I don't think there's actually a good explanation for Nintendo's strategy of repeatedly taking risk valves -- third-party software, price drops, B-list internal titles, basically any Western games at all -- unilaterally off the table so that when their own software strategy fails or stumbles there's nothing left to pick up the slack.

This is an interesting point. These are just my quick two cents, but I'd wager that Nintendo, as a company where important projects can take as much time as deemed necessary (think of Blizzard, although Blizzard takes it to a whole other level), just didn't have anything ready after AC/Wii Music, EXCEPT Wii Sports Resort. As we know, WSR was delayed to summer 2009, which I suppose Nintendo did because neither Microsoft nor Sony had unveiled motion controllers at E3 2008 (unlike what Nintendo expected back then). So Nintendo just polished it. I'd say that the plan was to release WSR weeks to months away from the day Sony and Microsoft unveiled their controllers, whether that meant 2008 or later.

If we take a look at Nintendo's recent investors meeting, Iwata said that, for some reason, the titles that are to become consistant sellers take roughly 2 months to reveal their potential. Whether he's right or wrong, he seems to believe it. I'd say that when Nintendo realized AC and Wii Music wouldn't become "evergreen titles", it was simply too late to change the Q4 2008 release schedule to include WSR. What pushed it back so far into 2009 might have been the theme of the game: what better time to release a summer-themed game than in summer? Or they thought they might as well polish the game until it shines bright if it wasn't to release by December 2008, what would I know?

Now, besides what I said above, why would Nintendo bank everything on 2 titles like this? Well, I don't know. Maybe they got confident after Wii Sports/Play/Fit that Music would be a success. Maybe they were confident after they saw that MK Wii was on track to sell as much, if not better than MK DS that AC Wii would match or outsell AC DS. This, combined with the (at the time) likely plan to release WSR alongside those 2 games, gave Nintendo enough confidence —too much confidence—, so they thought at least 1 title would help maintain (or increase) the momentum in Q4 2008.

So, in short: overconfidence and release schedule fuck-up. Nintendo isn't likely to drop the 3-hit-combo-every-few-quarters strategy they've got going (Iwata believes in this tactic if what he said in the investor's meeting is true). Now, to see if last year's failure to enhance the value of the Wii will make Nintendo act more cautiously. I'd say it's a given that they will try to achieve that, otherwise Iwata wouldn't acknowledge Music and AC as failures.

Also, I think there's a really simple —maybe too simple— explanation as to why Nintendo doesn't do pricecuts or moves towards the 3rd parties: they see themselves as a first party whose main job is to drive sales, and if they fail to do that, they rely on their ability to manage resources (which we can agree they're very good at) to soften the blow until they can release new potential system-sellers. They did survive with the Gamecube, after all, and they've developed a habit of not relying on the 3rd parties. That's the psychological side of things, like kame-sennin's point about the Gamecube pricecuts.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

I think month two is a bit silly to be talking about legs. The games everyone talks about having legs lately are 2005-2006 games still appearing in the top ten. A game selling sub 100k on its second month is a bit premature to talk about.

Well, there's a difference between 'showing signs of legs' and 'being an evergreen'. A small drop in the second month is a sign of legs. Of course, no one knows where the game will go from here. It could drop off dramatically, or it could continue to have legs.

 

[elrechazado]

Well, there's a difference between 'showing signs of legs' and 'being an evergreen'. A small drop in the second month is a sign of legs. Of course, no one knows where the game will go from here. It could drop off dramatically, or it could continue to have legs.

Agreed, so saying it has legs at this point is quite silly.

 

[jakncoke]

So does creamsugar.

I always wondered, how does one go about acquiring NPD numbers? Just paying? if so how much?

 

[Foil]

If you sold 72,000 in your first month than it would.

No it doesn't. It's way too early to say a game has legs. It's been under two months. Some of you guys are ridiculous.

Mario Kart DS and NSMB have legs. Not a game moving 60k in what's essentially its first full month. If it's doing that number 5-6 months from now then you can say it has legs.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

No it doesn't. It's way too early to say a game has legs. It's been under two months. Some of you guys are ridiculous.

Mario Kart DS and NSMB have legs. Not a game moving 60k in what's essentially its first full month. If it's doing that number 5-6 months from now then you can say it has legs.

Well, no one is comparing the game to the evergreen titles. I would agree that it is premature to make any guesses as to what kind of long term legs the game will have, but experiencing a very small drop off in your second month is a good start. At the very least, it shows that the game was not frontloaded.

 

[rpmurphy]

A semantics argument is always fun.

 

[thestopsign]

I always wondered, how does one go about acquiring NPD numbers? Just paying? if so how much?

The last time I heard it was around $10,000 a year. $10k more for the accessories or something like that.

 

[elrechazado]

Well, no one is comparing the game to the evergreen titles. I would agree that it is premature to make any guesses as to what kind of long term legs the game will have, but experiencing a very small drop off in your second month is a good start. At the very least, it shows that the game was not frontloaded.

I dunno man, reading your posts it seems like you're implying that selling 500k one month, then 150k the next is somehow worse than selling 70k then 65k. Which is exactly the reason you need a larger timeframe to make these calls. If the 70k game never sells 500k, then what do legs matter compared to front loading?

 

[Road]

Shhhh... Let them continue with their delusion. Don't forget they can all see the future.

I remember when anyone saying the 360 could outsell the Wii Japan used to be admitted in the nearest mental institution.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Personally I highly doubt the 360 will outsell the wii in the npd numbers for any significant period, but as the ps3 and wii drop yoy, and the 360 remains constant, suddenly saying that we might see new patterns isn't so ludicrous now is it?

It's not ludicrous, but it's not well-founded either. The 360 has stayed constant while the other two have dropped, yes...but it's also the only one of the three whose average price is lower than this time last year. Given that all signs point to an impending Sony price drop, and Nintendo has had theoretical room to drop since day one, projecting results based on current pricing and offerings coupled to future game lineups is iffy at best. (Note that this is a perfectly sound method when there's a reasonable expectation that pricing will stay the same.)

 

[sfog]

So, does any tracking service carry hardware numbers on DSi, or is it all a guessing game?

I'm not sure about trackers, but Nintendo has always posted the approximate breakdown between the DS Lite and DSi in their NPD result PR response themselves ever since it launched here. Their response for July isn't up yet though.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

I dunno man, reading your posts it seems like you're implying that selling 500k one month, then 150k the next is somehow worse than selling 70k then 65k. Which is exactly the reason you need a larger timeframe to make these calls. If the 70k game never sells 500k, then what do legs matter compared to front loading?

They don't, and I didn't mean to imply that. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear enough. I was simply stating that the very small drop off is a positive sign and gives reason to think that the game will have solid legs. It will probably never be a big seller, but not every game has to be.

Certainly I think most publishers would rather have a game go through your first scenario than your second. But I think Sega has to be pleased with the second month hold, and it does show positive signs for the future, although only time will tell for sure.

 

[JGS]

Which raises the question of why Nintendo has failed to produce any software that was "good" for consumers in over a year since Wii Fit, which in turn further raises the question of why Nintendo's strategy has involved placing a high-risk bet on three internal titles that must succeed for their year to turn out at all decently.

Nintendo's 1st party still sells well, even Wii Music, just not to expectations.

I think Nintendo missed the boat by not truly marketing to the casual which is notoriously short termed thinker. What makes them (& 3rd party for that matter) think that casual gamers want to play mini game collections ALL THE TIME?

I distinctly remember the time when GTAIII came out. There was a commercial every five seconds for that game. People went from playing PS2 for annual Madden titles to a heavy Mature rated game and the PS2 went along for the ride with monster sales.

Casual gamers like adult oriented, story driven fare, so why wouldn't Nintendo (& 3rd parties) take advantage of this. A success should be advertised more not less (See Iphone).
They should be advertising Metroid titles during LOST, Animal Crossing during Desperate Housewives, etc...You gotta spend money to make money. They did this at first but are now in their video game advertising rut or Touch Generation ads.

 

[shykyoichi]

Nintendo's 1st party still sells well, even Wii Music, just not to expectations.

I think Nintendo missed the boat by not truly marketing to the casual which is notoriously short termed thinker. What makes them (& 3rd party for that matter) think that casual gamers want to play mini game collections ALL THE TIME?

I distinctly remember the time when GTAIII came out. There was a commercial every five seconds for that game. People went from playing PS2 for annual Madden titles to a heavy Mature rated game and the PS2 went along for the ride with monster sales.

Casual gamers like adult oriented, story driven fare, so why wouldn't Nintendo (& 3rd parties) take advantage of this. A success should be advertised more not less (See Iphone).
They should be advertising Metroid titles during LOST, Animal Crossing during Desperate Housewives, etc...You gotta spend money to make money. They did this at first but are now in their video game advertising rut or Touch Generation ads.

I see what you did there.

 

[charlequin]

A price cut, on the other hand, can only result in a Pyrrhic victory.

The profits from the sale of a console are basically insignificant in comparison to the second-order profits generated by its sale: the software licensing fees, accessory sales, etc. The threshold for increased (or maintained in the face of potential loss) sales needed to make up for a relatively shallow price cut ($50, say) isn't all that high, especially when you also consider the strategic benefits of higher sales and install base.

The fact is, the "theory" that price cuts aren't useful or that maintaining a high level of sales throughout a generation without them simply isn't borne out by the evidence.

On a more psychological level, there is also the fact that Iwata has been burned by price cuts in the past.

Yeah, well, he's not a baby in swaddling clothes, he's a corporate executive. I couldn't care less whether he has PTSD flashbacks of the GameCube's stunning failure.

Also, I think there's a really simple —maybe too simple— explanation as to why Nintendo doesn't do pricecuts or moves towards the 3rd parties: they see themselves as a first party whose main job is to drive sales, and if they fail to do that, they rely on their ability to manage resources (which we can agree they're very good at) to soften the blow until they can release new potential system-sellers.

That is a shitty strategy for a publically-traded company whose job is to produce growth over time, not just to avoid having their doors shut.

 

[Hero]

Let me get this straight:

There are actually posters in the past few pages of this thread that actually believe Halo 3: ODST and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 are actually going to be system sellers? Really?

 

[markatisu]

Let me get this straight:

There are actually posters in the past few pages of this thread that actually believe Halo 3: ODST and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 are actually going to be system sellers? Really?

Not really, there are posters who believe the Wii will come crashing down and the fact that those 2 games are being released for the 360 would be enough for it to edge out the failing and crippled Nintendo system

 

[grandjedi6]

Let me get this straight:

There are actually posters in the past few pages of this thread that actually believe Halo 3: ODST and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 are actually going to be system sellers? Really?

Well there are posters who also believe that NSMB Wii will be a system seller so I guess it takes all kinds.

 

[Sonos]

Let me get this straight:

There are actually posters in the past few pages of this thread that actually believe Halo 3: ODST and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 are actually going to be system sellers? Really?

Coupled with the rumored console price cuts they could be.

 

[laserbeam]

Coupled with the rumored console price cuts they could be.

Not really.

 

[kame-sennin]

The profits from the sale of a console are basically insignificant in comparison to the second-order profits generated by its sale: the software licensing fees, accessory sales, etc. The threshold for increased (or maintained in the face of potential loss) sales needed to make up for a relatively shallow price cut ($50, say) isn't all that high, especially when you also consider the strategic benefits of higher sales and install base.

The fact is, the "theory" that price cuts aren't useful or that maintaining a high level of sales throughout a generation without them simply isn't borne out by the evidence.

I acknowledged all of that in my post. But you ignored the fact that a software strategy, if successful, can achieve all of those things at a higher profit margin. That's why I said it's only logical to attempt to juice sales with big software releases before a price cut is considered.

Yeah, well, he's not a baby in swaddling clothes, he's a corporate executive. I couldn't care less whether he has PTSD flashbacks of the GameCube's stunning failure.

:lol @ swaddling clothes. That's not a phrase you hear very often. I wonder if they make swaddling clothes for adults? Anyway, this is one of those situations where if Iwata is right, he looks like a genius and if he's wrong, he looks like a stubborn fool. There's really no more point in picking through his motivations now that they seem to be clearly established.

That is a shitty strategy for a publically-traded company whose job is to produce growth over time, not just to avoid having their doors shut.

The videogame industry is not the pharmaceutical industry. You can't always produce growth consistently to please your stockholders. Most companies pursue things like M&A or move toward higher margin products over time. But in the entertainment industry, there are consequences for these common sense business moves. Customers chafe against high margin products (PS3), and M&A's often result in a loss of key talent, which is what created the value the customer was looking for in the first place. I think it's fair to say that if you treat entertainment like any other business and put your stock holders above all else, you are taking a huge risk and your customers may dump you very quickly. We've seen a lot of companies get chewed up in this industry, and Nintendo in particular is paranoid about this. When you can go from industry king to struggling for survival in one year, I don't think a survivalist mentality is a "shitty strategy". Whether you're publicly traded or not.

 

[kame-sennin]

Well there are posters who also believe that NSMB Wii will be a system seller so I guess it takes all kinds.

I don't know whether it will or won't be, but do you really believe it is an extreme idea? If so, why?

 

[grandjedi6]

I don't know whether it will or won't be, but do you really believe it is an extreme idea? If so, why?

I don't really think NSMB Wii being a system seller is an extreme idea. But by the same token I don't think that believing that Halo: ODST and Modern Warfare 2 will be system sellers is extreme either.

 

[Sonos]

Not really.

operative word being "could".

 

[freddy]

Once again. Pages upon pages of discussion of what Nintendo are doing wrong or could do better.

EA and Nintendo seem to be doing quite well software wise and Nintendo is doing well hardware wise.

What are their competitors doing wrong? Anyone without an agenda or bias like to have a crack at that?

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't really think NSMB Wii being a system seller is an extreme idea. But by the same token I don't think that believing that Halo: ODST and Modern Warfare 2 will be system sellers is extreme either.

I think it's a bit more extreme.

For Halo, you already have Halo 3 which should have sold systems to people who want to play Halo games. Same logic applies to MW2 as there have been four Call of Duty games (though it was only elevated to "system seller" status with CoD4)

There is no 2D platformer Mario on Wii (unless, for some reason, you count Super Paper Mario), so for those who would buy a Wii for a 2D Mario, this would be their first chance.

Rule of thumb for me is that sequels (to games that are on the same system) will rarely have much impact as far as selling consoles. There are cases like CoD4, but usually it's because those sequels are radically different from their predecessors.

 

[Sonos]

What are their competitors doing wrong? Anyone without an agenda or bias like to have a crack at that?

I dont have a bias and I'll take a crack at it. $60 new game price tag. The whole games cost more to make thing doesnt fly with me now just as it never has. When the same game cost $50-$40 new on a pc I fail to see how it is so much more expensive to put it on 360 tech.

People feel safe at $50 and always have.

 

[kame-sennin]

I don't really think NSMB Wii being a system seller is an extreme idea. But by the same token I don't think that believing that Halo: ODST and Modern Warfare 2 will be system sellers is extreme either.

I see. That's fair, and I think I'm in the same boat. The obvious counter argument to those shooters being system sellers is that they are sequels and people would have already bought a 360 for their predecessors. What people tend to overlook is the effect of tipping point software. For many people, Halo 3 is not enough motivation to buy a $300 console. But knowing that Halo 3 and MW1 and ODST and MW2 are all on the system might be enough. These sequels also raise awareness of a franchise for the more casual consumer. Anecdotally, I bought the original Xbox at $150 bundled with Halo 2 because I thought it was finally time to see what all the fuss was about.

I'm not saying that these games definitely will be system sellers, but they certainly do raise mind-share. It remains to be seen whether that will cause a shift in overall hardware performance.

 

[Beer Monkey]

For many people, Halo 3 is not enough motivation to buy a $300 console. But knowing that Halo 3 and MW1 and ODST and MW2 are all on the system might be enough.

Halo 3 and Left 4 Dead and Dead Rising and Mass Effect and Fable 2 and Forza 3 and Banjo and Crackdown and Gears of War and Viva Pinata and...

Oh, shit. List wars.

But I get your point. To a shooter fan, Halo 3 might not be a system seller alone but throw in the most popular console shooters in the business and things change. Halo 3 becomes a nice bonus.

 

[Turrican3]

The fact is, the "theory" that price cuts aren't useful or that maintaining a high level of sales throughout a generation without them simply isn't borne out by the evidence.

I think that Nintendo will cut the Wii price as soon as they are reasonably sure there's a very strong chance to sell loads of them. Maybe NSMB or a new color

Spoiler

Wii Kuro in USA and Europe pleeeease

?

 

[Lazy8s]

The recession isn't to blame for the poor sales; people just don't want to be chained to the wall of their houses by the power cords of home consoles anymore, nor do they want to carry toys around with them instead.

The iPhone is the only credible device to use anymore. Ironically, people will probably choose game centers and arcades as an alternative before considering antiquities like home consoles again.