Isleofsancroy
Banned
Your wrong, and in a post on the last page I talked about 4.2 anyway and the claim still did not make sense. But selective reading made you miss that post.
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NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Your wrong, and in a post on the last page I talked about 4.2 anyway and the claim still did not make sense. But selective reading made you miss that post.
Just quoted for the new page...
If I recall that was Gaf's estimate in the absolute best case scenario that MS's worldwide sales kept to the US maintaining a 60% sales ratio.
It was certainly an optimistic view for the Xbox One in Europe to say the least.
ethomaz
Banned
61% give you 4.78m... that was close to the launch ratio... I believe (just guesstimates of course) after launch EU took a big % drop in sales than US... so the ratio increased a little... 63% put it below 4.5m already.
Edit - I was using LTD ratio here... sorry my mistake... the last part is false.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
I mean Tuesday will prove im right. Over 5 million is in stone. Thinking Xbox only sold 1.5 million since 2014 to present with towards 2 million unsold on shelves is mad silly.
On Tuesday you'll have a "shipped" number. That won't prove anything.
theprodigy
Member
Wait are we talking about LTD ratio or YTD ratio, because the latter has to be 73% for it to be under 4.5m.
The same PAL charts that had zero Xbox One games in the German top 50 a couple of times?
Infinite Xero
Member
So I was just looking at Wii sales on Wikipedia and is this correct?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_sales
The Wii sold 20 million consoles (WW) in one year?
EDIT:
Nintendo sold +20 million consoles every year for 3 years? Yeah, PS4 is definitely not gonna sell (let alone outsell) the Wii at that rate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_sales
The Wii sold 20 million consoles (WW) in one year?
EDIT:
Nintendo sold +20 million consoles every year for 3 years? Yeah, PS4 is definitely not gonna sell (let alone outsell) the Wii at that rate.
ethomaz
Banned
I used LTD but you are right
spatenfloot
Member
Wishful thinking is not a source.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=2dvTuUp8WsE
Shipment numbers prove nothing concerning sell through numbers.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
If they say 6 million shipped or more it will police your prediction is invalid because to be at 3.5 then they would have ti gave toward 2 million consoles on shelves.
BananaSprinkles
Banned
Look up a few posts. Estimates put it around 4.8 million sold worldwide. 6 - 4.8 = 1.2. That would mean approximately 1.2 million sitting on store shelves (or somewhere along the distribution chain) which isn't crazy since there were 900k~ in the same spot at the end of 2013 (3.9 million shipped, 3.0 million sold to consumers.)
spatenfloot
Member
It doesn't matter if they say they shipped a billion. They have only reported actual sales of 3 million. There is a reason the PR switched to reporting shipped instead.
I'm not sure why you keep on making such claims. Before you said that GAF estimated X1 to have sold 4.5 million units by the end of March and you also said that I was saying it is at that number now. Now you bring up that others say it only sold 3.5 million by now, a claim nobody has made on here.
TrafalgarLaw
Banned
If you bothered to live in actual europe (not UK) you'd see millions XB1's on european shelves still unsold. If I was a retailer, I'd consider not restocking xbox consoles.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
Police your prediction is invalid? They would have it/to gave toward 2 million?
This is mindboggling.
Dear lord. I said "for all you now they sold through 3.5M back when they announced 5M shipped in April". That doesn't mean they only did, let alone as of today.
But all the actual numbers I've quoted point at them not being anywhere neat 5M as of now.
ethomaz
Banned
6 million shipped will support the ~4.8m sold IMO.
To 6 million they needs 900k shipped this quarter but I guess they will ship less...
Graphics Horse
Member
6 million?! How many do you think they have sold (sold) outside the US? Are you thinking 3 million in the US and 2 million outside the US?
Mad silly is thinking they sold the same outside of US as they did inside in 2014.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
I already prices them only at 4.5 would not make sense. They already announced over 5 last time.
theprodigy
Member
I have no idea what that guy's point is anymore
Also ~65% YTD leads to 4.7m LTD, which seems right.
Also ~65% YTD leads to 4.7m LTD, which seems right.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Your thinking sold. I said 6 million shipped. You guys are going so mad words are changing lol. Lets calm down.
ethomaz
Banned
No.
Sony just release PS3 + PS4 shipment but it was over 7.5 million at April because the 7 million sold to consumers.
BananaSprinkles
Banned
Nope. The latest number we got from Sony for the PS4 specifically was "that PS4 has cumulatively sold through more than 7.0 million units globally as of April 6th, 2014."
clicky
Jimmyfenix
Member
7 million sold from April and 100 million sold between ps4 ps vita and PS3 from July.
ethomaz
Banned
I agree.I have no idea what that guy's point is anymore
Also ~65% YTD leads to 4.7m LTD, which seems right.
4.7-4.8m LTD is what I'm guessing too... below 5 million yet.
Put it into perspective that at the end of 2013 MS sold 3 million consoles and shipped 3.9, that's already 900k of consoles in the channels and sitting on shelves, having toward 2 million console's on shelves doesn't sound that preposterous when you think about retailers discounting the crap out of the console, and the Kinect bundle having such better deals over the kinectless model that it's not even funny.
Graphics Horse
Member
I'm not thinking sold. I'm thinking that to hit 6 million they'd have to ship almost 1 million kinectless boxes, as they were still getting through all their Titanfall bundles from the last quarter. Once those started running out, there were also the old non-Titanfall boxes to sell.
Please not that last quarter most people seemed sceptical of them hitting 5 million, but I was arguing that they could because of the Titanfall bundle. But this time around, I don't see it.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Your misread quotes and a guy did claim 3.5, he clarified on this page though.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
I would agree with this if ms shipped to Europe what it did to NA.
Ehre's a list of actual numbers for the XB1:
US 1.8M (2013)
US 1.1M (2014)
That's a 40% decline.
UK 364k (2013)
FRA 126k (2013)
GER 100k (2013)
SPA 35k (2013)
Total 625k
Assuming the same decline (it likely is worse), that's 375k for these countries in 2014.
That would be 3.9M in the very best case. Likely lower.
Missing Italy (Ubisoft projecting 150k by the end of 2014 so it surely isn't a huge number by now), Canada (traditionally 10% of the US market - let's say 300k), Australia (75k launch week-end).
New Zealand, Mexico, Brazil, Ireland, Austria are left, and they aren't gonna add up to hundreds of thousands.
US 1.8M (2013)
US 1.1M (2014)
That's a 40% decline.
UK 364k (2013)
FRA 126k (2013)
GER 100k (2013)
SPA 35k (2013)
Total 625k
Assuming the same decline (it likely is worse), that's 375k for these countries in 2014.
That would be 3.9M in the very best case. Likely lower.
Missing Italy (Ubisoft projecting 150k by the end of 2014 so it surely isn't a huge number by now), Canada (traditionally 10% of the US market - let's say 300k), Australia (75k launch week-end).
New Zealand, Mexico, Brazil, Ireland, Austria are left, and they aren't gonna add up to hundreds of thousands.
I didn't misread anything and I'm still waiting for your link to the UK numbers as well as a link to the GAF consensus estimate of 4.5 mio by the end of March. Tired of you spitting out numbers without any sources.
CouldBeWorse
Member
Millions? What is "actual" Europe?
And believe me, retailers won't stock something for long unless it's selling or they're getting paid.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Other people mentioned it, not my fault you ignored them.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
For the millionth time MS shipping 6 million doesn't disprove that they have only sold 4.7 million or so.
There is a reason why MS hasn't provided sell through numbers and why Sony has.
Ok, if you cannot provide a source I need to assume that you made it up. If that's the way you attempt a discussion, you will enjoy a very short stay on NeoGAF.
SwiftDeath
Member
4.2M was the absolute best case scenario when MS announced 5M shipped
From the original thread after MS announced that over 3 months ago
*Note* This is an estimate for up until the end of March techinically
theprodigy
Member
Er SwiftDeath XB1 being under 4 million after March would require US to be >71% of sales in those 3 months.
Anyway is MS really going to keep a ~1 million overhead again? I hope not, it's getting annoying.
Anyway is MS really going to keep a ~1 million overhead again? I hope not, it's getting annoying.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
No one has an issue finding it but you. Already mentioned im on a phone all you need to do is go back on page.
SwiftDeath
Member
Just realized that. Was a very old estimate anyways but 4.5 was never a consensus was my point
Much better to use YTD for XB1 than extrapolate YTD WW and add it to XB1 total
That puts 4.2M as the logical estimate at the end of march then
710k = XB1 US YTD for end of March -> 710/.61 = 1164k
3M + 1.164M ~ 4.164M as of end of March WW
Imru al-Qays
Banned
I'm kind of surprised he's lasted this long.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
I believe there is unsold stock in Europe but after last financial report I don't think they shipped enough for their to be 2 million on shelves. Remember, they said they were cutting regular sku shipments.
Disaster Nebraska
Banned
In all fairness, Wii's first 4 years were stellar, but after 2010 Nintendo stopped...you know...actually making mass-market games for the thing, and sales fell off a cliff. I think 2006-2010 the Wii hit 75 or 80m, and then from 2010-2013 it went past 100m and then kinda stopped.
PS4 won't have the same pace as the Wii did during its first four years. However, the PS1, PS2, and PS3 have all sold progressively better from one year to the next for the first 5-6 years of the console's lifespan and then begins to taper off a bit. PS4 very well may outsell Wii when all is said and done, especially since PS4 is going to have a lot less competition this gen compared to how things were last gen.
What do you think the shipping split would be worldwide?
We know MS shipped 3.9m at the end of 2013, we know MS had shipped 5m units by April, so that's 1.1m units shipped between Jan - Mar. Thanks to NPD we know that MS has sold 1.1m units to consumers so far for the year in the US (Jan - Jun), so if MS announces 6 millions units shipped for this quarter for example Europe would have to be selling around 300k in the same timeframe for there to not be lots of excess stock.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Nintendo really had no other moves to keep going after 2011. I mean they threw out another Wii sports, but for their other leading games other companies put out like 50 clones. Some argue they could have done SF and Fzero but how much would those have honestly sold?
The ps4 is appealing to the types of people that purchased 80 odd million consoles in 8 years at the moment, thanks to its software focus. I find it highly suspect that anyone should claim it will sell to market segments that lead the ps1, ps2, Ds, Wii, etc to massive sales that vaulted them to the mass market successes they were.