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[kinggroin]

Any reasonable person would know that the gap between the 3DS launch and Wii U launch was enough to see some results. Shareholders were promised results in that timeframe.

Thats all well and good. And I agree (except they fucked the 3DS launch so hard while developing the Wii U that time spent to fix one should have been spent preparing the other).

Lack of results leading in, again, does NOT show they are incapable of adequately supporting both platforms m'man. Just that they couldnt with what they had/have, up to this point.

Edit: which is why I originally was asking for proof about expansion post launch, one way or the other.

 

[maabus1999]

they have no time, especially if the PS4 or 720 are priced within range of the WiiU

Honestly with the software (in quantity and possibly in visual quality) difference that may be coming, either being $100 more may still destroy the Wii U in market share. With good marketing, maybe even up to $200 over the Wii U.

EDIT: If you ignore the next "generation" issue, and look at market segments and what each consoles user experience offers and caters towards, the Wii U is most likely going to be seen by the market at large more in a comparison with the 360/PS3. Which it is already losing on price.

 

[Cipherr]

First casualties of the new gen. Vita and WiiU.

 

[kinggroin]

they have no time, especially if the PS4 or 720 are priced within range of the WiiU

Sure they do.

Their window for chances at giving this thing a healthy marketshare however, is probably shrinking by the day.


*I believe they can turn it around enough so that the system eventually becomes a secondary platform down the road for many core gamers.


*assuming good price and software support

 

[gcubed]

Sure they do.

Their window for chances at giving this thing a healthy marketshare however, is probably shrinking by the day.


*I believe they can turn it around enough so that the system eventually becomes a secondary platform down the road for many core gamers.


*assuming good price and software support

from the little upcoming info we have they need to be able to do this before the fall, but most of their games that can push the platform will get drowned out by the ps4/720 furor. Sure, it has a chance to become the gamecube.

 

[freenudemacusers]

they have no time, especially if the PS4 or 720 are priced within range of the WiiU

Won't even matter what the price of the PS4 or 720 are. By the time those drop, the current batch of consoles are gonna be way cheaper than the Wii U, and have a ton more games than the Wii U. The cutting-edge types aren't even going to look at the Wii U.

 

[kinggroin]

from the little upcoming info we have they need to be able to do this before the fall, but most of their games that can push the platform will get drowned out by the ps4/720 furor. Sure, it has a chance to become the gamecube.

And we agree.

 

[Schnozberry]

they have no time, especially if the PS4 or 720 are priced within range of the WiiU

What do you consider in range? For consoles, the odds of mass market adoption are pretty slim for anything above $350, and even at that price it's still hasn't historically worked out particularly well. Early adopters get the hose on console launches, and they always have. The best launch I can remember in terms of price and available games was the Dreamcast, and that is an outlier by far.

If Nintendo stops producing the Basic SKU and offers the Premium in White or Black for the holidays with NSMBU and Luigi DLC preloaded for $299, and has other compelling titles ready to go in the same time period, things will pick up. Especially if the closest competition is $399 or higher. If they can't get games out, and refuse to shave off the price in the face of new competition, then stick a fork in them.

For full disclosure, I got a Wii U at launch and despite the issues I have logged a whole bunch of hours into NSMBU and Nintendoland with my wife. It has a lot of potential that has been utterly squandered thus far.

 

[gcubed]

What do you consider in range? For consoles, the odds of mass market adoption are pretty slim for anything above $350, and even at that price it's still hasn't historically worked out particularly well. Early adopters get the hose on console launches, and they always have. The best launch I can remember in terms of price and available games was the Dreamcast, and that is an outlier by far.

If Nintendo stops producing the Basic SKU and offers the Premium in White or Black for the holidays with NSMBU and Luigi DLC preloaded for $299, and has other compelling titles ready to go in the same time period, things will pick up. Especially if the closest competition is $399 or higher. If they can't get games out, and refuse to shave off the price in the face of new competition, then stick a fork in them.

For full disclosure, I got a Wii U at launch and despite the issues I have logged a whole bunch of hours into NSMBU and Nintendoland with my wife. It has a lot of potential that has been utterly squandered thus far.

within 50 of it (and i think it would ultimately make sense to drop the basic, and offer the premium for 299).

 

[Shiggy]

within 50 of it (and i think it would ultimately make sense to drop the basic, and offer the premium for 299).

Based on what's happening in Europe, that won't bring much of a change. The Wii U Basic is already available for less than 190€ (299€ at launch).

 

[Aquamarine]

that brings up an interesting note that i never thought of, barring the naming issues, how much of an affect did the end of generation disaster that the Wii was have on the WiiU. I mean there was no lead up to the WiiU from the previous generation

Nintendo's support for Wii in NA:

2011:
Wii Mario Sports Mix 02/07/11 North America
Wii Wii Play: Motion 06/13/11 North America
Wii Mystery Case Files: The Malgrave Incident 06/29/11 North America
Wii Kirby's Return to Dream Land 10/24/11 North America
Wii The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword 11/20/11 North America
Wii Fortune Street 12/05/11 North America

2012
Wii Rhythm Heaven Fever 02/13/12 North America
Wii PokePark 2: Wonders Beyond 02/27/12 North America
Wii Mario Party 9 03/11/12 North America
Wii Xenoblade Chronicles 04/06/12 North America
Wii New Play Control! Pikmin 2 06/10/12 North America
Wii Kirby's Dream Collection: Special Edition 09/16/12 North America
(end of 1st-party support)

Wii sales momentum in NA:

January 2011-2012 - (319k ->148k) - 53.6% decline YOY
February 2011-2012 - (454k -> 228k) - 49.8% decline YOY
March 2011-2012 - (290k -> 175k) - 39.7% decline YOY
April 2011-2012 - (172k -> ~92k) - ~46.5% decline YOY
May 2011-2012 - (177k -> 71k) - 59.9% decline YOY
June 2011-2012 - (273k -> ~95k) - ~65.2% decline YOY
July 2011-2012 - (190k -> ~70k) - ~63.2% decline YOY
August 2011-2012 - (190k -> ~60k) - ~68.4% decline YOY
September 2011-2012 - (240k -> ~77k) - ~67.9% decline YOY
October 2011-2012 - (250k -> ~45k) - ~82% decline YOY
November 2011-2012 - (860k -> 420k) - 51.2% decline YOY
December 2011-2012 - (940k -> 475k) - 49.4% decline YOY

Average 2011 -> 2012 decline: ~58.1%


Amount of Wii North American third-party releases:

April 2009 - March 2010 -> 284 releases
April 2010 - March 2011 -> 234 releases
April 2011 - March 2012 -> 121 releases
April 2012 - December 2012 -> 44 releases


Yeah, momentum for the Wii ecosystem just died going into 2012 as Nintendo decided to significantly cull support for the system.

 

[cloudyy]

Since NPD started tracking data (as dedicated video game sales data as opposed to tracking them "as toys") back in January 1995, the Wii U had the worst launch out of ANY Nintendo home console.

Here's a direct comparison:

And its momentum sucks.

Wii U is also the first of those 4 nintendo systems that launched first. It's the most expensive console you can buy atm which is something unusual about a nintendo console I think.

 

[Gravijah]

What do you consider in range? For consoles, the odds of mass market adoption are pretty slim for anything above $350, and even at that price it's still hasn't historically worked out particularly well.

Why is 349.99 the magical breaking point?

 

[Tookay]

The Wii brand should really be a case study on how incompetence at the executive level destroys a brand name.

The late years of Wii and Wii U were one misstep after another.

Wii as a product was always destined to be short-lived due to what it offered, but Nintendo refused to believe that. A damn shame.

This is true.

Had they released a real successor back in 2010, things might have been quite different.

Instead we had a 2-3 year drought that... continues to this day.

 

[Jonsoncao]

Thank you!

360 - 261K
3DS - 230K
PS3 - 211K
Wii - 91K
NDS - 86K
Wii U - 67K
PSV - 33K
PSP - 8K

NDS, PSV, and PSP are calculated.

Quote for the new page if anyone is interested.

 

[Hindle]

So I'd say Infinite sold 2.5m in its first full month of sales?

 

[Aquamarine]

Since NPD started tracking data (as dedicated video game sales data as opposed to tracking them "as toys") back in January 1995, the Wii U had the worst launch out of ANY Nintendo home console.

Here's a direct comparison:

And its momentum sucks.

Wii U is also the first of those 4 nintendo systems that launched first. It's the most expensive console you can buy atm which is something unusual about a nintendo console I think.

I wouldn't rely too much on the weak launch as circumstantial (i.e. believing the Wii U only went through a poor launch relative to other Nintendo consoles because it was "the most expensive console.")

And the Wii U did not launch at a price that you could label it as "expensive."

See the inflation-adjusted figures:

N64 -> $199 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $295 in 2013 dollars

GameCube -> $199 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $261 in 2013 dollars

Wii -> $249 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $287 in 2013 dollars

Wii U -> $299 at launch (minimum)
Inflation adjusted -> $299 in 2013 dollars

Now of course, inflation-adjusted figures aren't always the best metric because salaries don't necessarily increase with them (someone could be making "more money" in 1996 vs. 2013), but Nintendo has been relatively constant with sales prices.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Yes, that's the historical norm in the U.S. market for pretty much any system.

So are you saying the U.S. market is more price sensitive than other markets or that any sustained bump needs both a price cut and influx of appealing software?

 

[Tookay]

N64 -> $199 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $295 in 2013 dollars

GameCube -> $199 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $261 in 2013 dollars

Wii -> $249 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $287 in 2013 dollars

Wii U -> $299 at launch (minimum)
Inflation adjusted -> $299 in 2013 dollars

Now of course, inflation-adjusted figures aren't always the best metric because salaries don't increase with them (someone could be making "more money" in 1996 vs. 2013), but Nintendo has been relatively constant with sales prices.

And none of that refutes what he says.

It's the most expensive console at the moment, compared against the 360, PS3, 3DS, and Vita.

 

[Tobor]

N64 -> $199 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $295 in 2013 dollars

GameCube -> $199 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $261 in 2013 dollars

Wii -> $249 at launch
Inflation adjusted -> $287 in 2013 dollars

Wii U -> $299 at launch (minimum)
Inflation adjusted -> $299 in 2013 dollars

Now of course, inflation-adjusted figures aren't always the best metric because salaries don't increase with them (someone could be making "more money" in 1996 vs. 2013), but Nintendo has been relatively constant with sales prices.

I think you missed his point. The Wii U is more expensive than the 360 and PS3. It's the most expensive console at this moment.

 

[Zen]

I wish Evilore would update the OP!

This is the biggest problem with NPD threads on gaf.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

Sure, it has a chance to become the gamecube.

Honestly, I'm okay with this. All I ever want and expect from Nintendo consoles since the N64 is good first-party games. It's all I bought the system for. So, unless they kill the WiiU outright (highly unlikely), there will eventually be more worthwhile Nintendo games and I'll be satisfied. Heck, if they release some kind of DQ/MonHun game in Japan that makes the system sell well over there, then I'd even be fine if they bowed out of retail here and only released games on the eShop in the States. Unlikely I know, but I'm just saying I would be fine with it. (Same with Vita)

Sales-wise, the system's a disaster, though. The WiiU is the Wii all over again but this time the gimmick fell flat and there is no casual audience to prop up the system. The only thing left is a handful of families and diehard Nintendo fans.

 

[Aquamarine]

And none of that refutes what he says.

It's the most expensive console at the moment, compared against the 360, PS3, 3DS, and Vita.

I think you missed his point. The Wii U is more expensive than the 360 and PS3. It's the most expensive console at this moment.

I wasn't trying to refute his point!

I just wanted to clear any misconceptions that the Wii U was "expensive" in comparison to any other stuff they've put out.

But I wouldn't rely too much on the weak launch as circumstantial (that is, believing the Wii U only went through a poor launch relative to other Nintendo consoles because it was "the most expensive console") available at the time.

 

[Narcosis]

that brings up an interesting note that i never thought of, barring the naming issues, how much of an affect did the end of generation disaster that the Wii was have on the WiiU. I mean there was no lead up to the WiiU from the previous generation

Just to use myself as a purely anecdotal example, the Wii's long droughts of games and the necessity of fan-organized begging to get already translated games released in North America, even when the release schedule was barren, is the primary reason I'm not interested in buying a WiiU anytime in the near future. Sure, when Nintendo was on it's A-game (Mario Galaxy for instance) they were awesome, but that to me doesn't make up for the mistakes and I'll probably not own a WiiU until a few years into it's lifespan (hell, maybe even end of generation) when I'll be able to find a discounted machine to allow me to catch up on things like Bayonetta 2, Zelda etc.

 

[jvm]

I thought you guys might get a kick out of this.

Although 2013 is the first Year of Luigi, it may be the last year of Iwata. According to NeoGAF, at an analyst meeting on January 31, CEO Iwata implied that he may resign if he is unable to achieve operating income of J¥100 billion in the next FY. We are modeling well below this amount, and expect Nintendo to face another difficult year as the Wii U struggles and interest in the Wii and DS declines.

From an email just now about Nintendo's upcoming FY results.

 

[xxbrothawizxx63]

Seeing the PSV that low is really just shocking. Terrible really isn't even enough to describe it. I really have to wonder what's going through the mind of Sony management with numbers like that (being outsold by the previous gen hardware by over 100%).

On the other hand 3DS is performing OK (being outsold by a 7 year old console isn't good though), but this year will likely be the system's strongest year so far so I'm not particularly worried. I feel like they're going a bit overboard with the number of games they plan to bring to the system within the year. I know that as a 3DS owner myself I feel like I'm going to be drowning in games, so much so that I'll definitely have to pick my absolute must haves. I kind of wish that they would have tried to spread these titles out even more. They may be biting themselves in the ass in terms of the sales potential of each game by releasing them in such succession even though 3DS hardware sales will be better for it. It seems likely to me that the majority of those that have 3DS systems can't afford so many games and are only used to buying 4-5 games a year (especially for just one platform alone) at full price.

 

[Aquamarine]

I thought you guys might get a kick out of this.
From an email just now about Nintendo's upcoming FY results.

Pachter loves us! <3

 

[cloudyy]

But I wouldn't rely too much on the weak launch as circumstantial (that is, believing the Wii U only went through a poor launch relative to other Nintendo consoles because it was "the most expensive console") available at the time.

But being the most expensive system on the market right now sure doesn't help. It all depends how big of a factor the lower price, of the N64/GC/Wii against their respective direct competition, was.

 

[Mpl90]

I thought you guys might get a kick out of this.
From an email just now about Nintendo's upcoming FY results.

So it's GAF - Patcher - GAF

 

[DragonSworne]

Yeah, momentum for the Wii ecosystem just died going into 2012 as Nintendo decided to significantly cull support for the system.

Those Nintendo games are quite pathetic... They might have released titles but only 1-2 were of any notice.

 

[RibMan]

I thought you guys might get a kick out of this.
From an email just now about Nintendo's upcoming FY results.

I wonder who would replace him if he were to 'resign'. Troubling times ahead.

 

[DragonSworne]

Yeah, momentum for the Wii ecosystem just died going into 2012 as Nintendo decided to significantly cull support for the system.

Those Nintendo games released in 2011 and 2012 are quite pathetic... They might have released titles but only 1-2 were of any notice.

 

[jcm]

I thought you guys might get a kick out of this.
From an email just now about Nintendo's upcoming FY results.

The best part about that is he doesn't even bother to explain what NeoGAF is. He cites us exactly the same he would cite Reuters or Nikkei or something.

 

[Shawn6661]

Gamekult.com have more numbers than OP, are they wrong ?

 

[Aquamarine]

Gamekult.com have more numbers than OP, are they wrong ?

This chart is in accordance with our NPD leaks.

The real question is if this data was sourced independently or if they just got it from GAF.

 

[jvm]

I wonder who would replace him if he were to 'resign'. Troubling times ahead.

Pachter's never going to resi...oh, right.

 

[Sid]

I rented Ascension, and it didn't seem bad at all from what I played of it. The problem all future GoW titles will have is that the bar has been raised so much, that unless there's several epic moments in the game where Kratos is the size of an ant battling an enemy too big for the screen, it's going to be frowned upon.
We're at the point where GoW needs to be one release per generation.

It's not just about the scale,the game simply isn't as good as the previous console entries.

 

[Plinko]

86000 DSes sold? How much do those cost to make any more?

While making some money off them, Nintendo needs to learn how to properly kill off their previous consoles.

 

[ascii42]

86000 DSes sold? How much do those cost to make any more?

While making some money off them, Nintendo needs to learn how to properly kill off their previous consoles.

Eh, their home consoles seem to do a good enough job of dying on their own.

 

[Tallshortman]

Only system that will ever stand a chance of outselling PS2 is 360 more than likely.

lol no it won't even come remotely close. It currently has twice the sales of the 360 with the next gen coming up, how exactly are you expecting them to sell twice as many systems now?

 

[BlackJace]

Only system that will ever stand a chance of outselling PS2 is 360 more than likely.

lol

 

[ascii42]

lol no it won't even come remotely close.

In the US? It could happen if it has good enough legs after the 720 launch.

 

[Magicpaint]

lol no it won't even come remotely close. It currently has twice the sales of the 360 with the next gen coming up, how exactly are you expecting them to sell twice as many systems now?

Probably means just in the US?

 

[GRW810]

Too many people buying the 6+ years old Wii, not enough buying Wii U. Nintendo should have done a better job of guiding customers towards the new console.

 

[gcubed]

In the US? It could happen if it has good enough legs after the 720 launch.

an additional 12+ million consoles?

 

[ascii42]

an additional 12+ million consoles?

Thought it was closer than that. Well, by the end of the year it should be within 10 million. What did the PS2 wind up selling after the PS3 launch in the US? I know worldwide roughly 50% of the PS2's sales came after PS3's launch, but there were probably a lot of developing countries involved in that.

 

[Magicpaint]

Too many people buying the 6+ years old Wii, not enough buying Wii U. Nintendo should have done a better job of guiding customers towards the new console.

The 6yr+ Wii is cheaper and has a much richer catalogue of games than the WiiU. It's not that the Wii is still selling per se (it's doing numbers of a console well on its way out), it's just that its numbers look good compared to WiiU's pitiful numbers.

 

[Aquamarine]

Thought it was closer than that. Well, by the end of the year it should be within 10 million. What did the PS2 wind up selling after the PS3 launch in the US? I know worldwide roughly 50% of the PS2's sales came after PS3's launch, but there were probably a lot of developing countries involved in that.

Well in the USA:

2007:
PS2 - 3.97 million units
PS3 - 2.56 million units

2008:
PS3 - 3.55 million units
PS2 - 2.50 million units

2009:
PS3 - 4.33 million units
PS2 - 1.80 million units

2010:
PS3 - 4.33 million units
PS2 - >261,800 units


Around ~9 million units in the USA since the PS3 launched.

 

[jcm]

What was the PS2's LTD in the US?

 

[gcubed]

What was the PS2's LTD in the US?

the only thing i could find was 50m, i'm sure people here have much more definitive numbers