The PS4 would have to sell more than this year by a decent amount for multiple years to reach 100 million by say 2019-2020. So any time before that is even mroe questionable.
Console sales grow by a floating-pont exponential factor each year, think of it like a quadratic parabola. There's a vertex. The PS4 hasn't reached that vertex yet. It's that simple.
The PS3 and the Xbox 360 had life extending events, so did the PS2. I'm being realistic, what does the PS4, and even the Xbox one, have to extend their lifes to bring back in large sale numbers? Already the PS4 and Xbox one are doing price wars, which will make price no too big of a factor for the latter part of life then it would have been.
I guess we'll get to that in a moment. You already know the answer, but pretend it isn't an answer.
We don't see any Kinect or move type devices in sight so far...VR and AR are priced too high to bring in the Kinect/Move etc. Boost.
We'll see about that. The Samsung VR unit is just $100, and aside from that PSVR is the next best-priced option.
More importantly, it's likely the best supported VR option and people don't seem to have as much a problem these days paying a bit more for quality hardware, even game hardware.
I mean youa re expecting the PS4 to cross 10 million in the next 3 years, they would have to sell over double this years to do that for 2 of those 3 years, how are they goign to do that?
The same way PS1 did. The same way PS2 did. The same way PS3 would have if it didn't have so much going against it of its own doing.
The PS2 example is flawed because the PS2 had multiple life extending properties, a few of those were online, Eye toy, Cheaper price, PS3 not taking off, dying of Xbox and Gamecube making PS2 games being prominent on shelves (which the Xbox being the main competition in NA and UK, being pulled from shelves before everyone else.), Slim revisions, and TP exclusives, and having mostly the sole market for downgraded cheaper versions of then next gen games.
And? Lol at mentioning online; PS2's online was a near joke that gen compared to Dreamcast and especially OG Xbox, so that wasn't a major point in its sales. PS4 already has an Eyetoy. The price has effectively reduced by $100, so it has that. Wii U already has minimized retail presence and PS4's retail presence will increase a lot going into 2016, so it's got that too.
There's already a slim version in the pipeline, I have no idea what "TP" stands for but it's not a major factor, and I'm pretty sure out of the three systems PS4 will be the one getting the lionshare of cross-gen titles once PS5 and XBO-2 come out.
What's going to cause PS4 sales to explode or be nearly or tripling what it sold this year for multiple years? The PS4 has tons of factors the PS2 and even the PS3 DO NOT have that will prevent a runaway such as that.
Okay, name them. I'll wait.
The PS4 has the Xbox one chomping at Marketshare, and to a lesser extend the Wii u, and with the market Nintendo had before being gone the Wii u is in the same market at the PS4 and the Xbox One.
Wii U was going for the Nintendo faithful. Core and casual gamers gave up on it after two months. PS4 and XBO are going after a much larger core market, a market that's probably grown at least somewhat since 7th gen. The numbers prove that. Yet you still can't see the truth.
You have the PS4 and Xbox one already doing price and incentive wars world wide and more importantly, in the biggest console buying countries (which if not mistaken are U.S., Britain and Germany). The NX will release soon and will likely takes sales. A lot of games are shared between the PS4 and Xbox One. The PS4 is not running away in the biggest console buying countries with the exceptions of Germany. PS4 sales are down in Japan, PS4 does not have the PS2 sales for piracy in South and Central America and rumorly, is losing to Xbox in the region.
And yet it's dominating in every other developing and expanding market, which makes up for the Japanese sales (which have improved, and will continue to do so) and Central American sales (that comes down to a currency issue more than anything). Yet apparently, none of this matters :/
Your 360/PS4 example is also bad, because as I have said repeatedly, the 360 and PS3 had events that extended their lives and also still had and HAVE the choice of dropping the price more to gain even more sales. $99 or below Xbox 360's and PS3';s would sell, they gradually decreased the prices of each and that gave a lot of sales. Also again and again, Kinect, move, updates, etc. etc.
One of my earlier points already addresses how this thought of yours is incorrect, I can't be bothered to fall into circular reasoning like you're doing.
