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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

B

Brak

Member
[NDS] 450,000
[WII] 290,000
[PS2] 175,000
[PSP] 175,000
[360] 155,000
[PS3] 90,000
[GBA] 80,000
[GCN] 14,000
 
T

TheCardPlayer

Likes to have "friends" around to "play cards" with
I'll try this month


[DS] 400000
[Wii] 370000
[PS2] 220000
[360] 200000
[PSP] 150000
[GBA] 90000
[PS3] 70000
[GC] 7000
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
Click to expand...
I cannot quote this post enough. Too bad I was commuting during the start of the page.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
Parl said:
Well, don't shoot the middle man, but they were only out for half a week.
Click to expand...

So was Guitar Hero 2 360. So was Spider-Man 3. So were a lot of other one-week wonders. Most games sell a TON of copies in the first week of their release, especially on the 360, so high profile games can easily crack the top ten with 3-4 days of sales.

Also, don't forget that most 360 games have leaderboards, which give a decent indication of sales :)
 
P

Parl

Member
dammitmattt said:
So was Guitar Hero 2 360. So was Spider-Man 3 360. So were a lot of other one-week wonders. Most games sell a TON of copies in the first week of their release, especially on the 360, so high profile games can easily crack the top ten with 3-4 days of sales.

Also, don't forget that most 360 games have leaderboards, which give a decent indication of sales :)
Click to expand...

April: [360] Spider-Man 3 - 117K
Click to expand...

And Guitar Hero is ****ing Guitar Hero.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
Parl said:
April: [360] Spider-Man 3 - 117K

And Guitar Hero is ****ing Guitar Hero.
Click to expand...

I didn't mean to throw the 360 at the end of Spider-Man 3 because I was really referring to all versions of it, but I think it's safe to assume that Forza 2 means much more to the X360 audience than Spider-Man 3, so sales for that comparable period will be higher for Forza 2. Plus, leaderboards.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
[NDS] 456k
[WII] 374k
[PS2] 188k
[360] 183k
[PSP] 170k
[PS3] 96k
[GBA] 79k

[GCN] 12k
[XBX] 300
 
D

Deku

Banned
There ought to be a disclaimer for those who posts after Pachter's predictions as I'm sure many will just take his as a baseline and add/subtract from it for their predictions.


And for the record, Pachter's predictions
[Wii] 400,000
[PS3] 100,000
[360] 225,000
[PS2] 250,000
[PSP] 175,000
[DS] 475,000
[GBA] 75,000
[GCN] -
[XBX] -
Click to expand...

edit: put into quotes as requested.
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
Please put Pachter and other analyst numbers inside of quote blocks. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Will you be adding his, and other publicly available predictions to the ranking, or will you just(not to trivialize, just to define scope) be collecting the data in the thread?
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
donny2112 said:
A certain set of publicly available predictions you have in mind? :p
Click to expand...
I don't know. I hadn't really thought about. We could do ioi's data for comedy purposes. We would probably want to check with Dragona first to make sure that it's an acceptable exception to the ban though.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
[NDS] 430,000
[Wii] 360,000
[PS2] 180,000
[360] 160,000
[PSP] 140,000
[GBA] 65,000
[PS3] 64,999
[GCN] 10,000
[XBX] N/A
 
S

soundwave05

Member
The 360 would have to be higher than that, shouldn't the Elite boost the sales? Even if it isn't the most price friendly SKU you gotta figure some hardcore XBots bought another 360 in the Elite flavor.
 
D

Deku

Banned
bmf said:
I don't know. I hadn't really thought about. We could do [censored]'s data for comedy purposes. We would probably want to check with Dragona first to make sure that it's an acceptable exception to the ban though.
Click to expand...

No. you'll just be directing traffic to his site. I'm not sure why there's a need to keep mocking him. Everytime he is mentioned here, he probably makes a proportional income in ad revenues from clueless gaffers googling his numbers.
 
A

AzureNightmare

Banned
Deku said:
No. you'll just be directing traffic to his site. I'm not sure why there's a need to keep mocking him. Everytime he is mentioned here, he probably makes a proportional income in ad revenues from clueless gaffers googling his numbers.
Click to expand...
Agreed and signed. ioi doesnt need anymore money.

My predictions:

[DS] 500,000
[Wii] 350,000
[PS2] 285,000
[360] 180,000
[PSP] 120,000
[GBA] 90,000
[PS3] 80,000

Picture Version:

RISETOHEAVEN.jpg


2vwyecz.gif


wiiroadblock.gif


soclose.gif


gbasskicking.gif


and

sonyspin.gif
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
bmf said:
Will you be adding his, and other publicly available predictions to the ranking, or will you just(not to trivialize, just to define scope) be collecting the data in the thread?
Click to expand...

I could, if there were a specified list of posters I could trust to post accurate analyst data.

I'm also planning on including a List of Shame for users who didn't follow the correct format.
 
D

Deku

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
I could, if there were a specified list of posters I could trust to post accurate analyst data.

I'm also planning on including a List of Shame for users who didn't follow the correct format.
Click to expand...

Pachter's predictions came from SCB. If you mean you need someone trustworthy to report that here, there I suppose the thread starter can do that for you.
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Deku said:
No. you'll just be directing traffic to his site. I'm not sure why there's a need to keep mocking him. Everytime he is mentioned here, he probably makes a proportional income in ad revenues from clueless gaffers googling his numbers.
Click to expand...
We don't need to link his site in order to do it. Neither do we need to include the site's name. I'm tired of playing this side of the discussion, so I won't anymore.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Alright, I've got the List of Shame functionality going. The following users have posted in this thread without valid prediction input...

perfectchaos007
polg
methane47
phez
Heidir
papercut
krypt0nian
Sharp
JadedOne
Jammy
ElAlcesDiablo
C.T.
VanMardigan
sonycowboy
Majik
AdmiralViscen
scionguyXB
DayShallCome
underfooter
The M.O.B
Mithos Yggdrasill
Cedeo
Mrbob
ComputerNerd
soundwave05
a Master Ninja
farnham
the thoroughbred
 
S

Sharp

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Alright, I've got the List of Shame functionality going. The following users have posted in this thread without valid prediction input...

perfectchaos007
polg
methane47
phez
Heidir
papercut
krypt0nian
Sharp
JadedOne
Jammy
ElAlcesDiablo
C.T.
VanMardigan
sonycowboy
Majik
AdmiralViscen
scionguyXB
DayShallCome
underfooter
The M.O.B
Mithos Yggdrasill
Cedeo
Mrbob
ComputerNerd
soundwave05
a Master Ninja
farnham
the thoroughbred
Click to expand...
You're missing Cheesemeister, AKA not everyone who posted voted.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Sharp said:
You're missing Cheesemeister, AKA not everyone who posted voted.
Click to expand...

Oh, but I did. Sort of.

Cheesemeister said:
[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456
Click to expand...
 
D

donny2112

Member
I've said before that I'll just manually input anyone who doesn't use the parser format. Giving more options encourages participation, and it's pretty clear that most are following the parser format, anyways. :) That doesn't preclude you from doing a "List of Shame," though. :lol
 
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