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Official November 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

D

donny2112

Member
webshark said:
[NDS] 1.35 k
[WII] 1.15 mil
Click to expand...

Lightning said:
[NDS] 1.45 mil
[WII] 1.15 mil
Click to expand...

Failure to read the initial post could lead to problems for you two. Hint: Decimal points are bad unless you meant to predict that only 115 Wiis would be sold in the month of November.
 
D

donny2112

Member
a Master Ninja said:
Microsoft Presents: NPD Numbers and You
8 minutes in the lesson starts
Click to expand...

Thanks!

Just the interesting stuff to me. They also cover the Sales-Age basics like retail calendar, what all does NPD track, etc. The guy doing the "lesson" is a Microsoft guy who deals with the NPD numbers and is in a position to compare them to internal numbers, if desired.

* Retailers share data with NPD with the stipulation that that data is not shared with other retailers.
* Coverage percentage varies month-to-month.
* "Somewhere in the ballpark of about 2/3rds. 70ish %."
* Retailers share data once a week with NPD.
* NPD's consumer panel (20-30K people) get asked what they buy at Wal-Mart (and presumably other places) and this helps NPD figure out how to adjust for Wal-Mart.
* Using the consumer panel, they create a fictitious Wal-Mart in the data set to help account for Wal-Mart data.
* Cites old definition of Sony shipments in contrast to Microsoft, in case anyone listens to this and gets confused.
* Microsoft keeps internal sale numbers for 1st-party games/accessories and hardware, but they rely on NPD for sales of third-parties on their platform.
* Microsoft doesn't spend time correcting NPD's numbers because 1) "they're really close" and 2) differences for individual months may even out over time.
* "They might be 10,000 units wrong over here or 1,000 units wrong over there, and a different game is the other direction, but again, over time, it really tends to even out."
* Individual companies can compare their nationwide marketshare on individual games to see where they need improvement in marketing games.
 
N

nextgeneration

Member
donny2112 said:
Thanks!

Just the interesting stuff to me. They also cover the Sales-Age basics like retail calendar, what all does NPD track, etc. The guy doing the "lesson" is a Microsoft guy who deals with the NPD numbers and is in a position to compare them to internal numbers, if desired.

* Retailers share data with NPD with the stipulation that that data is not shared with other retailers.
* Coverage percentage varies month-to-month.
* "Somewhere in the ballpark of about 2/3rds. 70ish %."
* Retailers share data once a week with NPD.
* NPD's consumer panel (20-30K people) get asked what they buy at Wal-Mart (and presumably other places) and this helps NPD figure out how to adjust for Wal-Mart.
* Using the consumer panel, they create a fictitious Wal-Mart in the data set to help account for Wal-Mart data.
* Cites old definition of Sony shipments in contrast to Microsoft, in case anyone listens to this and gets confused.
* Microsoft keeps internal sale numbers for 1st-party games/accessories and hardware, but they rely on NPD for sales of third-parties on their platform.
* Microsoft doesn't spend time correcting NPD's numbers because 1) "they're really close" and 2) differences for individual months may even out over time.
* "They might be 10,000 units wrong over here or 1,000 units wrong over there, and a different game is the other direction, but again, over time, it really tends to even out."
* Individual companies can compare their nationwide marketshare on individual games to see where they need improvement in marketing games.
Click to expand...

Great stuff. Thanks for posting the cliff notes, Donny. ;)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
nextgeneration said:
Great stuff. Thanks for posting the cliff notes, Donny. ;)
Click to expand...
I just listened to the whole podcast - and Donny didn't miss a beat. You read the bullets, you got all the pertinent NPD nuggets.
 
Tieno

Tieno

Member
donny2112 said:
Thanks!

Just the interesting stuff to me. They also cover the Sales-Age basics like retail calendar, what all does NPD track, etc. The guy doing the "lesson" is a Microsoft guy who deals with the NPD numbers and is in a position to compare them to internal numbers, if desired.

* Retailers share data with NPD with the stipulation that that data is not shared with other retailers.
* Coverage percentage varies month-to-month.
* "Somewhere in the ballpark of about 2/3rds. 70ish %."
* Retailers share data once a week with NPD.
* NPD's consumer panel (20-30K people) get asked what they buy at Wal-Mart (and presumably other places) and this helps NPD figure out how to adjust for Wal-Mart.
* Using the consumer panel, they create a fictitious Wal-Mart in the data set to help account for Wal-Mart data.
* Cites old definition of Sony shipments in contrast to Microsoft, in case anyone listens to this and gets confused.
* Microsoft keeps internal sale numbers for 1st-party games/accessories and hardware, but they rely on NPD for sales of third-parties on their platform.
* Microsoft doesn't spend time correcting NPD's numbers because 1) "they're really close" and 2) differences for individual months may even out over time.
* "They might be 10,000 units wrong over here or 1,000 units wrong over there, and a different game is the other direction, but again, over time, it really tends to even out."
* Individual companies can compare their nationwide marketshare on individual games to see where they need improvement in marketing games.
Click to expand...
SPOILER THAT SHIT, podcast ruined :(
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Patcher spoke

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/n...eck-and-neck-in-december-says-analyst-/18720/

Wii and Xbox 360 Sales Neck and Neck in December, says Analyst
GameDaily News

Wii and Xbox 360 sales are forecast to be very close this month, according to Michael Pachter. Pachter also believes Wii supply and demand will finally balance out in April 2008.
Posted by James Brightman on Monday, December 03, 2007
In his latest Video Game Monthly report, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter provided his December console hardware sales forecast and an overall assessment of the industry going forward.

While Nintendo's Wii racked up 350,000 unit sales during Thanksgiving week in the U.S., Microsoft's Xbox 360 wasn't very far behind with 310,000 units sold during the same period. Pachter estimates that the PS3, which has seen its sales rise considerably since the $399 model was introduced, sold around 150,000 to 200,000 units during turkey week.

Based on these figures, Pachter believes it will be a fairly tight battle between the Wii and 360 during December, with the Wii having a slight edge. "These figures imply that Microsoft will sell 1.5 million Xbox 360s in December in the U.S., that Nintendo will sell 1.7 million Wiis, and that Sony will sell around 800,000 PS3s. This is about double the number of consoles sold last December, and suggests that the holiday will be a good one for the U.S. publishers," he said.

Pachter also continues to be surprised by the ongoing success of the aging PS2. "We continue to believe that better than expected PS2 software sales this year (down only 24% year-to-date compared to our forecast of down 32%) will drive overall growth well into next year," he said, adding, "and we expect next generation console software sales growth to highly correlate to any increase in the rate of PS2 software sales decline."

He continued, "We have heard speculation about a redesigned PS2 priced at $99 (from the current $129), with a likely U.S. launch in early 2008 (we note that this new PS2 has already been released in Japan with no price cut). We believe that the lower-priced PS2 will sell at least as well in 2008 as it has in 2007, with sales running at the 4 million unit level next year."

Interestingly, concerning the Wii, although some have predicted that supply and demand wouldn't level out until nearly the end of 2008, Pachter believes it will be in balance by about April, with sales of "around 6 – 6.5 million units per year in 2007 and 2008."

Overall, 2007 is sizing up to be an incredible year for the U.S. game industry with software sales tracking ahead 26 percent. Pachter estimates that software sales will finish up 19 percent (including PC, which he thinks will decline three percent).

2008 should be strong as well, he noted. "We expect industry sales to be strong for the first several months of 2008, with the strong release schedule early in the year sustaining double-digit sales growth. We are already well into this holiday selling season and all signs are that video games are top sellers. Should we be right, we think that video game investors' concerns about the economy will subside, and expect the U.S. publisher stocks to continue to appreciate. It may take until after the holidays when concerns about the 'stalled' cycle are fully alleviated, and we expect volatility for video game stocks through the remainder of the year, although we retain an upward bias," he concluded.
Click to expand...
 
B

Brakara

Member
Culex said:
I wonder why he didn't predect November's sales though?
Click to expand...

He's waiting for the GAF average? And this December prediction will be long forgotten when the NPD numbers are released in January.
But not forgotten by GAF, of course.
 
F

Frillen

Member
[NDS] 1250k
[Wii] 1050k
[360] 790k
[PSP] 710k
[PS2] 650k
[PS3] 450k
[GBA] 260k
[GCN] 45k


God this month is hard to predict.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
not sure if im understanding this article correctly but it could help guess the ps3 hardware sales maybe.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6509196.html

Im not sure what the LTD for the ps3 is since october but in the article it states it was 2M. And i'm not 100% sure what the the Total of Blu-ray players stand alone total was since October. But if we someone has that info, you could guess how much the ps3 has sold because now Blu-ray players total sales = 2.7 Million as of November 24th supposedly.

So we have 2million ps3 + Stand Alone Blu-ray players thru october + Sales of PS3 (Nov 4-24) + Sales of Stand alone (Nov 4-24) = 2.7 Million.

If Stand Alone Blu-ray players since October have been roughly around 200,000 or less, then that would give us 500,000 sales of Blu-ray players in November. Now people just have to guess how much of that 500,000 is from PS3 and how much is from Blu-ray standalones and then the PS3 still has one wek of sales for the NPD.

Could the PS3 hit over 500,000?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
mackaveli said:
Could the PS3 hit over 500,000?
Click to expand...
Some interesting info. Game hardware sales typically double from October to November, I'm assuming there's a spike in other electronics as well, such as Blu-Ray players. That would indicate PS3 sales below 500k. I'm still thinking something around 400k is more likely.
 
G

Gahiggidy

My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
I won't post my prediction until Pacthor first posts his.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Good amount of info by Pachter.

I wonder if his predictions for the PS3's black friday are based on MS' press release, or on some other data. If the PS3 sold anywhere near 75K a week for the two weeks before Black Friday, it could easily manage 500k for the month since the holiday shopping season will be in full swing for the last week of reported data.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Some interesting info. Game hardware sales typically double from October to November, I'm assuming there's a spike in other electronics as well, such as Blu-Ray players. That would indicate PS3 sales below 500k. I'm still thinking something around 400k is more likely.
Click to expand...

yah but Blu-ray stand alone players total since they were first released is supposedly under 200,000. You think in a month time they could double their LTD in a month? i'm not sure. Even if you give them 100,000 Blu-ray players for november, you are left with 400,000 for PS3 and a week left for ps3 to sell which could put it around 500,000 or close to it.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
mackaveli said:
yah but Blu-ray stand alone players total since they were first released is supposedly under 200,000. You think in a month time they could double their LTD in a month? i'm not sure. Even if you give them 100,000 Blu-ray players for november, you are left with 400,000 for PS3 and a week left for ps3 to sell which could put it around 500,000 or close to it.
Click to expand...
Oh I misread you then, for some reason I thought it was 200k per month. Which now that I think about it obviously way off. :lol

Tough month to predict. The PS3 is the real wildcard, since Sony didn't give out hard week of Black Friday data.
 
H

Hammer24

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Tough month to predict. The PS3 is the real wildcard, since Sony didn't give out hard week of Black Friday data.
Click to expand...

Thats probably the reason nearly noone expects them to do last years 360 numbers.
 
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