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[sonycowboy]

Was your skipping last month's predictions on purpose or did you just forget to predict. Also, don't forget software.

~1 hour left!

Last month it would have been .... unfair for me to predict. In any case, it killed me in the YTD listing, from which I had been a top 3.

 

[Oblivion]

[DS] 1,200,000
[Wii] 1,000,000
[360] 750,000
[PSP] 700,000
[PS3] 420,000
[PS2] 560,000
[GBA] 180,000

 

[beerbelly]

[DS] 1,300,000
[Wii] 1,120,000
[360] 790,000
[PSP] 700,000
[PS3] 419,000
[PS2] 565,000
[GBA] 210,000

 

[The Innocent X]

You've got to be joking or do you just hate your 360 that much?

360 sold more than 300,000 on Black Friday week alone. You seriously think it sold 60,000 a weeks prior and after Black Friday week?

NeoJubei is never one to let reality get in the way of a good argument

 

[thestopsign]

[360] 666k
[GBA] 220k
[NDS] 1234k
[PS2] 490k
[PS3] 489k
[PSP] 650k
[WII] 1050k

Hahaha, I seriously just pulled all of those numbers out of my butt, and in general I'm bad at predicting hardware sales. So this is like throwing at a dartboard blind-folded and trying to get the bulls-eye for me.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Anyone? SC?

NPD Canada released rankings, but no hard numbers. Here's the thread that has what data did get released.

 

[CitizenCope]

[360] 728k
[GBA] 133k
[NDS] 1100k
[PS2] 510k
[PS3] 450k
[PSP] 800k
[WII] 945k

 

[WingM@n]

[NDS] 980k
[Wii] 1220K
[360] 790K
[PSP] 410K
[PS3] 460K
[PS2] 420K
[GBA] 100K

 

[pooteeweet]

NPD Canada released rankings, but no hard numbers. Here's the thread that has what data did get released.

That's unfortunate. Is that going to be the way of it going forward (lack of numbers, I mean)?

 

[Provider]

[360] 750k
[GBA] 240k
[NDS] 1209k
[PS2] 320k
[PS3] 300k
[PSP] 450k
[WII] 1050k

 

[dyls]

[Wii] 1,200,000
[DS] 1,100,000
[360] 780,000
[PS2] 690,000
[PSP] 680,000
[PS3] 480,000
[GBA] 250,000

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Holy crap I forgot. Darn it

 

[RBH]

[360] 480k
[PS3] 585k

What a surprise. :lol

 

[donny2112]

Holy crap I forgot. Darn it

Usually Cheesemeister posts saying that predictions are closed after his parser runs. Maybe he's been otherwise detained

Spoiler

Predict quick!

.

 

[jamesinclair]

Crap, exams mean no time, I prefer random numbers over no prediction at all

[WII] 1,300,000
[NDS] 1,250,000
[360] 700,000
[PSP] 650,000
[PS2] 400,000
[PS3] 350,000
[GBA] 200,000


[GCN] 44,444


I put no thought into this

Hope its accepted though. Im going to miss being a part of the GAF aggregate

 

[Gadfly]

Generally speaking expectations for 360 are too high and for PS3 too low.

We also have a couple of people who are not making any predictions but when NPD results are released will be (as they have been in the past) too quick to show up and express their “surprise” that for example 360 did not do as well as they expected. Whatever that expectation was, nobody knows.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Generally speaking expectations for 360 are too high and for PS3 too low.

We also have a couple of people who are not making any predictions but when NPD results are released will be (as they have been in the past) too quick to show up and express their “surprise” that for example 360 did not do as well as they expected. Whatever that expectation was, nobody knows.

Thats only if you believed Sonys PR statement which no one did and rightfully so.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Generally speaking expectations for 360 are too high and for PS3 too low.

We also have a couple of people who are not making any predictions but when NPD results are released will be (as they have been in the past) too quick to show up and express their “surprise” that for example 360 did not do as well as they expected. Whatever that expectation was, nobody knows.

[360] 520k
[GBA] 200k
[NDS] 1100k
[PS2] 500k
[PS3] 530k
[PSP] 600k
[WII] 1100k

I think you will be surprised, at least on the 360 front. If MS's statement of 310k the week of Black Friday is accurate, that leaves three weeks to move 210k, or 70k per week. That rate is below the October average weekly sales rate of 91.5k. Factor in one week post-Black Friday, and the average for those weeks will track much higher.

 

[Gadfly]

Thats only if you believed Sonys PR statement which no one did and rightfully so.

and why should I believe MS PR!?

Sony's PR was vague (and somewhat useless) but not unbelievable. But I expect a price drop, the first holiday with general availability, and great ad campaign help PS3 sell as least as many as 360 did last year.

360 on the other hand would have sold better if some interesting SKUs and bundles were not hard to find. I think this will hurt their holiday numbers but not as much as some of those buyers getting their 360 in September and not waiting for holiday season.

 

[jarrod]

Wait, can we still contribute or is it closed.


If we can...

[NDS] 1,450,000
[WII] 1,200,000
[360] 750,000
[PS2] 650,000
[PSP] 600,000
[PS3] 400,000
[GBA] 300,000
[GCN] 50,000

...crazy, I know. :lol

 

[AstroLad]

i think this is gunna be the month ps3 finally hits a million. what with uncharted, everyday shooter and allot of the announcements we have been hearing about HOME (which makes XBL obsolete) i think the dream is over for the xborgs.

we'll see who's eating crows come NPD time. i'm gunna work on some gifs this weekend already, that's how confident i am about my forecasting.

 

[The Innocent X]

i think this is gunna be the month ps3 finally hits a million. what with uncharted, everyday shooter and allot of the announcements we have been hearing about HOME (which makes XBL obsolete) i think the dream is over for the xborgs.

we'll see who's eating crows come NPD time. i'm gunna work on some gifs this weekend already, that's how confident i am about my forecasting.

Here fishy fishy fishy.

 

[3rdman]

and why should I believe MS PR!?

Sony's PR was vague (and somewhat useless) but not unbelievable. But I expect a price drop, the first holiday with general availability, and great ad campaign help PS3 sell as least as many as 360 did last year.

360 on the other hand would have sold better if some interesting SKUs and bundles were not hard to find. I think this will hurt their holiday numbers but not as much as some of those buyers getting their 360 in September and not waiting for holiday season.

When has MS ever out and out lied in a PR statement??? Regardless, only one company refused to post their numbers and instead laid claims to amazing "percentages" of which we have no idea how they reached.

You're underestimating 360 numbers and overestimating PS3.

 

[GhaleonEB]

and why should I believe MS PR!?

Sony's PR was vague (and somewhat useless) but not unbelievable. But I expect a price drop, the first holiday with general availability, and great ad campaign help PS3 sell as least as many as 360 did last year.

360 on the other hand would have sold better if some interesting SKUs and bundles were not hard to find. I think this will hurt their holiday numbers but not as much as some of those buyers getting their 360 in September and not waiting for holiday season.

That's going to be an interesting comparison, for the reasons you cited. Same price at the same point in each console's lifespan. I predicted lower for the PS3, but clearing 511k would be a great sign for the system.

i think this is gunna be the month ps3 finally hits a million. what with uncharted, everyday shooter and allot of the announcements we have been hearing about HOME (which makes XBL obsolete) i think the dream is over for the xborgs.

we'll see who's eating crows come NPD time. i'm gunna work on some gifs this weekend already, that's how confident i am about my forecasting.

Awesome.

BTW, are you talking for November or December with "this month".

 

[Cheesemeister]

Predictions closed at the normal time. I can't always post and say so right on time from work. =P

dyls and jamesinclair were too late.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

http://www.thesimexchange.com/rankings-league.php?community=neogaf&sort=networth

Clearly, most of us are completely new to the site. I'm thinking we can hit a good 50 members.

Joined up. Never looked around simExchange much before, but this is pretty fun. Especially since you can predict a few NPD months in advance. Seems to me the current January values are pretty high all around, so I've been shorting them.

 

[Gadfly]

Here fishy fishy fishy.

:lol :lol :lol

Unfortunately (or fortunately) too obvious a bait for anybody to bite.

 

[JJConrad]

I'm going to predict anyway and hope for mercy:

[360] 675k
[GBA] 150k
[NDS] 1603501
[PS2] 360k
[PS3] 475k
[PSP] 800k
[WII] 900k

 

[apujanata]

I think you will be surprised, at least on the 360 front. If MS's statement of 310k the week of Black Friday is accurate, that leaves three weeks to move 210k, or 70k per week. That rate is below the October average weekly sales rate of 91.5k. Factor in one week post-Black Friday, and the average for those weeks will track much higher.

On the other hand, predicting 720K (the current estimate on Simexchange) means that outside of that 310K Black Friday week, X360 need to sell 410 in 3 week, or almost 140K / week, which is a sharp increase from 90K / week X360 did in October 2007.
Don't forget the October 2007 X360 still enjoy some increase from price cut (of the new bundle) and Halo 3 release (from September).

Cheesemeister,
don't forget to post the aggregate, so we can start discussing the aggregate

 

[Brakara]

Generally speaking expectations for 360 are too high and for PS3 too low.

Generelly speaking, in the past, expectations for the 360 have been too low and for PS3 too high.

We also have a couple of people who are not making any predictions but when NPD results are released will be (as they have been in the past) too quick to show up and express their “surprise” that for example 360 did not do as well as they expected. Whatever that expectation was, nobody knows.

Those people should just be ignored. Acting surprised when they didn't make any predictions is bullshit. Same goes for the "as expected" crowd as well.

 

[Cheesemeister]

Here we are, then.

Number of contestants: 225

[NDS] 1,253,964; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,800,000
[WII] 1,020,003; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,350,000
[360] 747,459; Expected Range = 480,000 to 950,000
[PSP] 560,081; Expected Range = 252,000 to 880,000
[PS2] 460,985; Expected Range = 200,000 to 680,000
[PS3] 414,293; Expected Range = 230,000 to 600,000
[GBA] 163,363; Expected Range = 38,000 to 400,000

Lots of disqualifications this month.

Late:
dyls, jamesinclair, jarrod, JJConrad

Can't follow directions or misplaced decimals:
F#A#Oo, Jewbacca, Lightning, Linkhero1, MikeE21286, Sean, sinseers, soma27, webshark

Also, does anyone have Pachter's numbers?

 

[Odysseus]

if the gaf aggregate is even close on the ps3, that is an unmitigated disaster.

with an extra week following thanksgiving, that thing needs to push at least 600k. at least.

 

[apujanata]

if the gaf aggregate is even close on the ps3, that is an unmitigated disaster.

with an extra week following thanksgiving, that thing needs to push at least 600k. at least.

Yeah, the aggregate for PS3 is very low (IMO). I think it is because of the big spread (1:3.x) (unlike Wii, which is only 1:1.x, or NDS which is 1:2.x)

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

if the gaf aggregate is even close on the ps3, that is an unmitigated disaster.

with an extra week following thanksgiving, that thing needs to push at least 600k. at least.

I have it down for 415k

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6510883

Due to strong promotion around its new $399 40GB model, PlayStation 3 sold between 160,000 and 170,000 units, DisplaySearch estimates.

You think it's going to hit over 100k every other week to equal that 600k? If so, I have a bridge to sell you. I feel that I overestimated.

 

[GhaleonEB]

On the other hand, predicting 720K (the current estimate on Simexchange) means that outside of that 310K Black Friday week, X360 need to sell 410 in 3 week, or almost 140K / week, which is a sharp increase from 90K / week X360 did in October 2007.

The difference is, that kind of increase is normal.

if the gaf aggregate is even close on the ps3, that is an unmitigated disaster.

with an extra week following thanksgiving, that thing needs to push at least 600k. at least.

And it's probably realistic as well, maybe a touch low. PS3 sales doubled on the first price cut from month to month. Sales in Octover-November typically double on their own. The GAF aggregate is about a 3.5x increase from October.

 

[jamesinclair]

Predictions closed at the normal time. I can't always post and say so right on time from work. =P

dyls and jamesinclair were too late.

Aw come on, it was 20 minutes.

Why 4pm, and not, say, 7pm?

Watch me do well this time

 

[JB1981]

wait, weren't npd numbers supposed to come out yesterday?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

wait, weren't npd numbers supposed to come out yesterday?

Nope.

 

[JB1981]

Nope.

when do they?

 

[Psychotext]

when do they?

OP

 

[Ydahs]

when do they?

NPD Release: December 13th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)

.

 

[apujanata]

The difference is, that kind of increase is normal.


And it's probably realistic as well, maybe a touch low. PS3 sales doubled on the first price cut from month to month. Sales in Octover-November typically double on their own. The GAF aggregate is about a 3.5x increase from October.

Are you sure that it is normal ? If I am not mistaken, Black Friday always happen in November. So every November period increase, are all partially caused by Black Friday. Since there is no analysis of sales outside of Black Friday week, I don't have any data to back me up, but my feeling is that the weekly # for those non-Black Friday week in November do not have a sharp increase (compared to October weekly or September weekly). They do have increase, but not sharp increase.

Anyway, we will see see very soon whether my feeling are right or wrong.

 

[rage1973]

Are you sure that it is normal ? If I am not mistaken, Black Friday always happen in November. So every November period increase, are all partially caused by Black Friday. Since there is no analysis of sales outside of Black Friday week, I don't have any data to back me up, but my feeling is that the weekly # for those non-Black Friday week in November do not have a sharp increase (compared to October weekly or September weekly). They do have increase, but not sharp increase.

Anyway, we will see see very soon whether my feeling are right or wrong.

One thing to note is that unlike last year there is an extra week after black friday which is when the big holiday sales starts. The time from black friday to end of friday is usually 3.5 times the typical weekley sales in October. So if you figure that into the equation the November should be a bit higher than twice October sales.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Canadian numbers today perhaps? eh?

 

[michaeld]

Best part of neogaf, seeing all the meltdowns over silly numbers

 

[Tmac]

when are the official numbers released?

 

[Cheesemeister]

when are the official numbers released?

NPD Release: December 13th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)

 

[perfectchaos007]

C'mon Canadian numbers. Don't let me down 2 months in a row

 

[Oblivion]

if the gaf aggregate is even close on the ps3, that is an unmitigated disaster.

with an extra week following thanksgiving, that thing needs to push at least 600k. at least.

But it sold more than the month before.

 

[borsdy]

C'mon Canadian numbers. Don't let me down 2 months in a row

I know we never got the October charts, but what do you mean about September?