Sharp: for a more scientific examination of the trends from past elections, I suggest you read these two articles:
Article 1 |
Article 2
Here are the pretty pictures:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/assets_c/2008/10/fiftypct_gallup-thumb-200x382.png[IMG] [IMG]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/assets_c/2008/10/eightpct_gallup-thumb-200x345.png[IMG]
For the Gallup poll, breaking 50% and holding an 8% margin in October is very significant.
For all national polls compared to the past two elections:
[IMG]http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Pres08vs04aand000verlay-thumb-600x450.png[IMG]
Obama is currently six points higher than Al Gore was in 2000 and 12 points higher than Kerry in 2004 at the same point in time.
Obama might not have a Clinton-like blowout, but the odds of him winning are crazy-high right now.[/QUOTE]
I agree that he's going to win. But the way GAFers were talking made me think that it was likely to be a complete blowout, when if you look at it historically this is a pretty close election. And looking at these numbers also helps because I'll know not to panic when McCain shoots up 3-4 points in the polls as election day nears, since it happens pretty much every time.