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ELECTORAL MAP
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(Click the map for poll closing times. States in Purple are considered the bellweathers or "battlegrounds" of this election)
Obama's Road to the Whitehouse is wide and varied. He has multiple routes. He can win Kerry states + any number of the states he is polling ahead in today, and win. These include Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana. If Virginia or North Carolina are called for him early, the night is over and you may all sleep.
McCain's Road to the Whitehouse is increasingly small. He essentially MUST win all the Bush states (which seems impossible, considering he will definitely lose a few), or he must pick off a big state. The only viable big state for him is Pennsylvania. He has been polling consistently behind for weeks and weeks, with some last minute "tightening" now - average around 6-7 point Obama lead. Still insurmountable.
Here are what several prominent people currently estimate the map at:
Karl Rove Electoral Map - 311 O, 160 M, 67 Toss
FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map - 332.9 O, 205.1 M
Pollster.com Electoral Map - 311 O, 142 M, 85 Toss
Electoral Vote Electoral Map - 353 O, 185 M
Chuck Todd Electoral Map - 286 O, 157 M, 95 Toss
CNN Electoral Map - 291 O, 157 M, 90 Toss
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INTERESTING HOUSE RACES
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Since I am way too lazy to actually do the leg work myself here, I'll point you to a pretty decent breakdown RIGHT HERE.
A lot of races have undergone only recent transformation, such as with Michele Bachmann vs. Elwyn Tinklenberg in Minnesota.
I will personally be watching Paul Kanjorski's race vs. Lou Barletta (PA), one because it impacts my district and two because it's one of the few genuinely in danger seats on the Democratic side this year.
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INTERESTING SENATE RACES
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Same as above. Visit a good breakdown RIGHT HERE.
Will be interesting to see if Al Franken comes out on top. Also Ted Stevens implosion now almost certainly means he vacates that senate seat. The goal here is to get 60 seats, which will be exceedingly difficult without nuclear-explosion caliber election results on Tuesday, but if some of the longshot races start breaking Democratic way Republicans are in for a loooong night.
Estimates give them a shot at 57-58 realistically.
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HOLD ME
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After forever, we're finally here. I don't know about you but I am happy to see history being made. What an election season!
So as we wait for the results, thank grandjedi for this PoliGAF reading material:
The Primaries
Iowa 2008 Caucus Thread
Official NH Primary Results Thread
Michigan Presidential Primary results thread
Nevada/South Carolina Primary Results Thread
South Carolina CNN Dem Debate (Obama: Yet to determine if Bill is, in fact, a brotha)
The South Carolina Democratic Primary thread (Obama 2:1 over Clinton)
Today is GOP Primary day in Florida
Official CNN 1/31 Democratic Debate Thread: Obama v. Clinton
The Official Super Tuesday Thread
Official Feb. 9-10th Primary/Caucus Thread (Obama = Weekend Sweep)
Official Feb. 12th Primary Thread (Obama/McCain Beltway SWEEP SWEEP)
Official February 19th Primary/Caucus Thread (OBAMA wins so does McCain but really..)
Official CNN Democratic Presidential Debate Thread of CHANGE you can XEROX
Official MSNBC Feb 26 Democratic Debate Thread of "Bring Obama a pillow!"
Official March 4th - Jr. Tuesday - GAF's worst (McCain wins, Hil wins Ohio, Texas)
NeoGAF March 8th/11th Caucus Thread (Wyoming + Mississippi = OBAMATON)
PoliGAF is born
PoliGAF Interim Thread of Tears/Lapel Pins (ScratchingHisCheek-Gate)
PoliGAF Thread of Democratic Boxing (ABC - 4/16 - 8PM EST)
PoliGAF Official April 22nd Primary Thread (Democrat Apocalypse)
PoliGAF Official May 6th Primary Thread (All I need is a Hirracle, all I need is you)
PoliGAF Thread of toothless Hill-Billys (75,000 in Portland for OBAMA post #3599)
PoliGAF Thread of Obama's Victory Lap and Smoking Hopium in Internet Dens
PoliGAF Thread of THE END and FIST POUNDS (NYT: Hillary drop out/endorse Saturday)
PoliGAF Interim Thread of USA General Elections (DAWN OF THE VEEP)
PoliGAF General Election Thread of Conventions (Sarah Palin McCain VP Pick)
PoliGAF Thread of Republican's Turn at Conventions (Palin VP - READ OP)
PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts
PoliGAF Thread of First Debate Election 2008 - GAF doesn't know shit
PoliGAF Thread of VP Debate 2008 Trainwreck-in-slow-motion Popcorn Party Edition
PoliGAF Thread of Post #7323 (LAST DAY TO REG. IN CO,FL,IN,MI,OH,PA,TX,VA)
PoliGAF 2nd Pres. Debate 2008 Thread (DOW dropping, Biden is off to Home Depot)
PoliGAF Debate #3 Thread of Hey Joe, where you goin' with that plunger in your hand
PoliGAF Interim Thread of 2008 Early Voting (THE FINAL COUNTDOWN: T MINUS 2 DAYS)
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GAF ELECTION IRC
Cheesemeister said:
