Now that the general election campaign has started, I thought I'd post a site that I haven't seen posted on GAF before. It's called
Electoral-Vote.com, and it's pretty much the best poll-related site ever.
Basically, it tracks polls for the presidency, the senate, and the house. He provides numbers whenever they are updated and provides commentary on interesting races. It's run by an American who is a university professor and lives outside the states. He is a Democrat but is very neutral in terms of his commentary and polling and often links to Republicans when he feels it appropriate to demonstrate his objectivity.
His track record is as follows:
- 2006; Correctly predicted the outcome of every single Senatorial election. Predicted the popular vote within margin of error for all candidates in a state correctly for 40/50 states. Predicted the popular vote of the overall state within margin of error for 46/50 states.
- 2004; used three algorithms, the best of which was tweaked for 2006. One algorithm got 46 states right, two algorithms got 48 states right. The better of the two 48 state algorithms got 98% of the EVs right. The incorrect states for every algorithm used were within the margins of error (tight races).
The site itself consists of a really nice and easy to understand map, polling data, and news updates which consist of the guy who runs the site's opinions on how things are trending. It's been a great resource for me personally since I first used it in 2004.