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[kswiston]

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-preview-box-office-social-media-1201871704/

4TH UPDATE, Friday 8AM: Disney is calling Rogue One: A Star Wars Story‘s preview night at $29M, which is 51% of the record $57M that Force Awakens made a year ago on its Thursday night. It’s the biggest preview night of the year, slotting ahead of the cash made by Batman v. Superman ($27.7M) and Captain America: Civil War ($25M).

EDIT: Biggest opening midnights/Thursday previews of all time (and their opening weekends):

1) The Force Awakens - $57M ($248M OW)
2) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2 - $43.5M ($169M OW)
3) The Dark Knight Rises - $30.6M ($161M OW)
4) Twilight: Breaking Dawn pt 2 - $30.4M ($141M OW)
5) Twilight: Breaking Dawn pt 1 - $30.3M ($138M OW)
6) Twilight: Eclipse - $30.1M ($65M OW - opened on a Wednesday)
7) Star Wars Rogue One - $29.0M
8) Batman v Superman - $27.7M ($166M OW)
9) Avengers: Age of Ultron - $27.6M ($191M OW)
10) Twilight: New Moon - $26.2M ($143M OW)
11) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $25.2M ($158M OW)
12) Captain America: Civil War - $25.0M ($179M OW)
13) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt1 - $24.0M ($125M OW)
14) Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince - $22.2M ($78M OW - opened on a Wednesday)
15) Suicide Squad - $20.5M ($134M OW)


From vinny:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story delivered the largest Thursday preview of 2016 last night, taking in $29 million as it heads into 4,175 theaters this weekend. This tops the $27.7 million brought in by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and $25 million from Captain America: Civil War from earlier this year and serves as the seventh largest preview gross of all-time.

Additionally, the film has brought in an estimated $33 million internationally after its first two days of release in 47 territories including the UK ($5.0M), Australia ($3.6M), Germany and France ($3.1M).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4251&p=.htm

For comparison, The Force Awakens was at $72.7M overseas after its first 2 days (Wed and Thurs).

 

[SuperBanana]

Well deserved. Better than Ep7 for sure.

 

[RyanW]

Obviously a failure if it didn't match TFA's numbers

Spoiler

/s

 

[ryutaro's mama]

A solid, if flawed, movie. $29m seems about right.

 

[vinnygambini]

51% decline, that $4B still looking good Disney?

Spoiler

/s

 

[ChaosZeroX]

Fantastic Movie. Well deserved. I loved it more then TFA honestly.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

kwinston you son of a bitch

Obviously a strong number, but the question now is whether it ends up matching the frontloading on TFA on opening weekend. It is which would extrapolate to ~$125M for the weekend if it exactly follows TFA's trajectory. I'd consider it very shocking if it fell below that.

 

[Stinkles]

Whitta redeemed.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

kwinston you son of a bitch

Obviously a strong number, but the question now is whether it ends up matching the frontloading on TFA on opening weekend. It is which would extrapolate to ~$125M for the weekend if it exactly follows TFA's trajectory. I'd consider it very shocking if it fell below that.

I don't think it will be as front loaded. There wasn't as much pent up demand for this as there was for TFA.

I am still expecting $160-170m opening.

 

[Lights and Waves]

Legends only!

 

[Glass Shark]

Surprised it wasn't higher. In some ways I felt like the hype for Rogue One exceeded TFA

 

[zewone]

Definitely not better than Episode 7 in terms of quality or sales.

 

[Spiral Insanity]

Seems a bit low.

 

[vinnygambini]

I don't think it will be as front loaded. There wasn't as much pent up demand for this as there was for TFA.

I am still expecting $160-170m opening.

$145-155m

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Whitta redeemed.

Too bad he isn't still here to gloat. I would have enjoyed that greatly.

In some ways I felt like the hype for Rogue One exceeded TFA

hell no.

 

[Infernostew]

Definitely not better than Episode 7 in terms of quality or sales.

Seriously. Not even close.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Seems a bit low.

Higher Thursday preview than BvS and Civil War, and those had a lot of pre hype going in.

 

[Anth0ny]

ahead of civil war, and civil war did $180m opening weekend

$185m baby, it's happening

 

[vinnygambini]

OP:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story delivered the largest Thursday preview of 2016 last night, taking in $29 million as it heads into 4,175 theaters this weekend. This tops the $27.7 million brought in by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and $25 million from Captain America: Civil War from earlier this year and serves as the seventh largest preview gross of all-time.

Additionally, the film has brought in an estimated $33 million internationally after its first two days of release in 47 territories including the UK ($5.0M), Australia ($3.6M), Germany and France ($3.1M).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4251&p=.htm

 

[kswiston]

As I just alluded to in the box office thread, opening weekend records have had fairly stagnant attendance since Spider-Man 3. The big bump for Avengers over Spider-Man 3 or TDK was mostly 3D premiums. Jurassic World and The Force Awakens both managed only marginally better Friday proper to Sunday performances than The Avengers as well (TFA's huge record break came from Thursday previews that were nearly 40M higher than the Avengers $19M midnights).

Basically, for the super openers, demand overstrips supply during the prime moviegoing times (7-10pm shows) in many areas. Especially for the more desirable formats.

That should be less of an issue here.

 

[Meowster]

It's a fun and enjoyable movie - can't wait to see it again with the fam!

 

[Not]

So the Star Wars movies are going to make the most money every year from now on. Got it.

 

[kswiston]

OP:



http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4251&p=.htm

Added. TFA was at $72.7M after those two days from roughly the same markets I believe. Overseas is way down so far.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

It's a fun and enjoyable movie - can't wait to see it again with the fam!

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

Bought tickets for tomorrow morning. Can't wait!

 

[strafer]

The Force Awakens was secretly the greatest Star Wars movie ever made so I cant wait for this one.

 

[JaggedSac]

Whitta redeemed.

Whitta wrote this?

 

[zero_suit]

Impressive. Seeing it tomorrow.

 

[Lifejumper]

Whitta wrote this?

First draft. 50% of it is still in the movie according to Edwards.

So yeah... Respect the Whitta.

 

[purseowner]

It has the best second half of the year and the worst first half of the year.

Such an odd mess - imagine if the reshoots hadn't happened...

 

[mcfrank]

Added. TFA was at $72.7M after those two days from roughly the same markets I believe. Overseas is way down so far.

Everyone knew R1 would not perform like TFA did. If it does 50% that will still make it a billion dollar movie and top 20 all time.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Whitta wrote this?

He wrote the first draft but someone went and erased all his posts... I mean, all his draft.

 

[U2NUMB]

Whitta redeemed.

Whitta was involved? Have not been following it but if he was involved good for him. Want to see him do well!

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Everyone knew R1 would not perform like TFA did. If it does 50% that will still make it a billion dollar movie and top 20 all time.

Yep this. 51% of TFA is my hope for the film. If it hits that, it's a billion-dollar movie.

Whitta was involved? Have not been following it but if he was involved good for him. Want to see him do well!

He's got a big splash in the credits. He was integral.

 

[RSTEIN]

Very solid. Don't forget there was horrendous weather in many parts last night.

 

[kswiston]

Everyone knew R1 would not perform like TFA did. If it does 50% that will still make it a billion dollar movie and top 20 all time.

Overseas is down 55% so far. China might help stabilize that a bit, but with the same legs that TFA got (which were pretty good), Rogue One would earn $450M overseas outside of China.

 

[Beer Monkey]

He wrote the first draft but someone went and erased all his posts... I mean, all his draft.

Sensible chuckle.

It's a fun and enjoyable movie - can't wait to see it again with the fam!

It's definitely the right Star Wars to prepare young children for our future under Trump and Brexit et al.

 

[TissueBox]

Whitta was involved? Have not been following it but if he was involved good for him. Want to see him do well!

Yeah he's had his hand in it since practically the beginning. They credited him as story-writer I believe.

 

[mcfrank]

Overseas is down 55% so far. China might help stabilize that a bit, but with the same legs that TFA got (which were pretty good), Rogue One would earn $450M overseas outside of China.

Hard to judge after 2 non-weekend days.

 

[Skellig Gra]

Surprised it wasn't higher. In some ways I felt like the hype for Rogue One exceeded TFA

Dude, that is just insane. The marketing was like 10 fold less at a minimum.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I don't think it will be as front loaded. There wasn't as much pent up demand for this as there was for TFA.

I am still expecting $160-170m opening.

I think I'll be more cautious with $150M. If there was impact last from the bitter cold temperatures, that's not going to change over the weekend.

 

[zero_suit]

Surprised it wasn't higher. In some ways I felt like the hype for Rogue One exceeded TFA

LMAO

 

[vinnygambini]

Added. TFA was at $72.7M after those two days from roughly the same markets I believe. Overseas is way down so far.

Thanks. Hmm that's a healthy decline, though par of the course given that previous entries of Star Wars were never really a top performer overseas except Japan, UK and a few others.

With that being said, Sing is the competition to watch, especially overseas - it'll be interesting to see the impact it has on Rogue One.

 

[FTF]

Well deserved. Better than Ep7 for sure.

No way, and the only decent wom will show that.

Surprised it wasn't higher. In some ways I felt like the hype for Rogue One exceeded TFA

No way and not even remotely close.

$145-155m

Yup, this is about where I see it landing as well. Maybe $160ish or match BvS.

 

[kswiston]

I think I'll be more cautious with $150M. If there was impact last from the bitter cold temperatures, that's not going to change over the weekend.

That probably depends on your location. In my southern Ontario city, we had -15C (5F) weather last evening. This evening is -7C (19F), and Saturday evening is 0C (32F). There were also snow storms yesterday in many places.

The weekend numbers will be interesting either way. Deadline will start posting their super early Friday stuff soon.

 

[Angel_DvA]

it's better than TFA without any doubt, I hope it'll break even more records with the time, it deserve it.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-preview-box-office-social-media-1201871704/

For a sequel in December, Rogue One is off to a fantastic start, and given its momentum and positive word of mouth, it’s a movie that moviegoers will gradually make their way to during the holiday season, even if they’re not out in ultimate force this weekend, but still, with a projected weekend between $140M-$145M at 4,157 theaters, that’s pretty damn good. Currently, Friday looks like it’s in the high $60M range, including $29M from last night.

Now, some think Rogue One could tip to $70M today, and if that’s the case, it’s three-day will get closer to $150M. With so much pre-sold business, it’s hard for some analysts to see a trend this early.

 

[bananafactory]

Why is tracking for the weekend way below Civil War despite opening higher on Thursday?

 

[Spikematic]

Surprised it wasn't higher. In some ways I felt like the hype for Rogue One exceeded TFA

What alternate dimension/time line did you drop in from? That is absolutely not true in any shape, way or form.

 

[kswiston]

Why is tracking for the weekend way below Civil War despite opening higher on Thursday?

Hardcore Star Wars fans