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Rogue One Tracking for a $280-350 mil Global Opening Weekend

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C

Cheebo

Banned
Unsurpringly the tracking is on the rise. It's projecting for a 140-150 opening weekend in America now too (was 120-130 a week ago). Which would make it the second largest December opening of all time behind TFA (current #2 is The Hobbit AUJ with 86 mil).

Thanks to Disney’s $4 billion purchase of Lucasfilm, and its devotion to the legendary sci-fi franchise, Christmas is coming early to Star Wars fans: They only had to wait one year for a brand new Star Wars movie as Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opens overseas Wednesday and begins its stateside run Thursday night.

Yeah, yeah, we already know Rogue One‘s opening isn’t going to be as high as Force Awakens a year ago, which pulled in an all-time global debut of $528.97M. Episode VII was propped by pent-up demand, and the latest film is a spinoff. Still, Rogue One with a frosh dramatis personae will kick off pretty damn high with a worldwide start over five days between $280M-$350M.

In the U.S./Canada, industry projections currently lie between $140M-$150M in 4,100-plus sites, with a heavier interest among men than women. Still the notion among distribution chiefs is that the latter sex will come along for the want-to-see in the days following the pic’s release. By comparison, Force Awakens opened in 4,134 locations. 400 Imax theaters will have the Gareth Edwards-directed Rogue One for four weeks around the globe. Of its theater count, Rogue One is comprised of 500 Premium Large Format screens (the largest PLF footprint ever for any release), 3,500+ 3D screens and nearly 200 D-Box locations. Even if Rogue One comes in lower, just over $100M, it would still rank as the second-best opening this winter month has ever seen since Force Awakens’ $247.96M all-time three-day. That beat the month’s previous record holder, 2012’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($84.6M), by close to twofold. Granted, there wasn’t a snow storm standing in moviegoers’ way, but Force Awakens showed that the mid-month business could indeed blow the barn doors off to enormous levels prior to the Christmas holiday; the historical notion being that the post-holiday frame is when moviegoers truly make their way to the theater because they’re free of distractions.
Click to expand...

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-o...ice-opening-disney-felicity-jones-1201867465/
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
Got damn. I know I'm going opening weekend.

Merchandising is gonna be nuts when all is said and done.

They can slap Vader on everything again.
 
T

Trigonometrize.

Member
I can't get over how dumb "A Star Wars Story" is of a subtitle. "Star Wars: Rogue One" with everyone just calling it "Rogue One" would've been a fine way to keep the Star Wars in and also make it it's own thing.
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
I've never been a big fan of these entertainment brands advertising everywhere but there's something...traditional about seeing star wars Duracell ads and shit lol. Like they were one of the OGs of the game so it's cool with me
 
G

Gravidee

Member
Trigonometrize. said:
I can't get over how dumb "A Star Wars Story" is of a subtitle. "Star Wars: Rogue One" with everyone just calling it "Rogue One" would've been a fine way to keep the Star Wars in and also make it it's own thing.
Click to expand...

The subtitle is meant to accompany all of the spinoffs henceforth. Plus, it's needed for the dummies who can't differentiate it from the main episodes. Even then, I'm sure people will still be confused.
 
brickarts295

brickarts295

Member
Lucas really undersold Star Wars for $4b.
But then again maybe he didn't expect Disney to make a big success again.
But it's $4b and he's old so yeah I can't see him complaining.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Trigonometrize. said:
I can't get over how dumb "A Star Wars Story" is of a subtitle. "Star Wars: Rogue One" with everyone just calling it "Rogue One" would've been a fine way to keep the Star Wars in and also make it it's own thing.
Click to expand...

Somehow people will still fail to understand that it's a spinoff. I expect a lot of casual moviegoers asking "What happened to Rey and Finn? How did Vader come back to lfe??"
 
B

BocoDragon

or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
brickarts295 said:
Lucas really undersold Star Wars for $4b.
But then again maybe he didn't expect Disney to make a big success again.
Click to expand...
I think he was aware it was a bargain. It was a gentleman's deal to get a little money to give to charity and put Star Wars in the hands of the one company who could properly shepherd it into the future. Dude's already infinitely rich, couldn't spend the money he had if he tried.
 
B

Blablurn

Member
Chinese release is on Jan 6th if anyone is wondering.

Force Awakens was rather disappointing in terms of sales here but with some well known asian actors in the cast Rogue One might have better chances for success.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
brickarts295 said:
Lucas really undersold Star Wars for $4b.
But then again maybe he didn't expect Disney to make a big success again.
But it's $4b and he's old so yeah I can't see him complaining.
Click to expand...

TFA was already in pre-production (Lucas hired Michael Ardnt) as was early planning for Rogue One and the Han Solo spin-off when Lucas sold it. Lucas picked Kasdan to write the Han Solo film. Knoll pitched Rogue One after Lucas hired Kennedy before the deal with Disney. It's not like he didn't expect what was being released, this stuff we are getting was already in the plans.

It was more about getting Lucasfilm to a safe home that would protect the brand. Lucas gave all the cash from the deal to charity anyway (Lucas signed the Buffet pledge to give most of his wealth away in his lifetime).
 
K

kswiston

Member
brickarts295 said:
Lucas really undersold Star Wars for $4b.
But then again maybe he didn't expect Disney to make a big success again.
But it's $4b and he's old so yeah I can't see him complaining.
Click to expand...

I dont really think he cared about maximizing his buyout. Disney was in a better position to utilize the Star Wars property than a lot of studios, and Marvel/Pixar already demonstrated their willingness to let sub studios do their thing as long as they were getting those tentpole quotas.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Yeah it should do pretty big business. On a personal level I'm nowhere near hyped like I was Episode VII, but I'll still go see it for sure.

Any guesses for final gross? I'm gonna say between 900 million to just over 1B.
 
J

JonnyDBrit

Member
brickarts295 said:
Lucas really undersold Star Wars for $4b.
But then again maybe he didn't expect Disney to make a big success again.
But it's $4b and he's old so yeah I can't see him complaining.
Click to expand...

He deliberately undersold it to the people he thought would best handle the franchise, and put most of the cash - much of the sale was in Disney stock - to charity.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Obliterator said:
Yeah it should do pretty big business. On a personal level I'm nowhere near hyped like I was Episode VII, but I'll still go see it for sure.

Any guesses for final gross? I'm gonna say between 900 million to just over 1B.
Click to expand...

If it opens over $300M worldwide, it will easily top $1B. Holidays will boost its legs, and China isnt until January.
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
Obliterator said:
Yeah it should do pretty big business. On a personal level I'm nowhere near hyped like I was Episode VII, but I'll still go see it for sure.

Any guesses for final gross? I'm gonna say between 900 million to just over 1B.
Click to expand...

I think it will be the highest grossing movie of the year
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Anyone who thinks Lucas was selling Lucasfilm for the money needs to read this:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-deal-george-lucas-will-384947
By the end of the year, the $4.05 billion sale of Lucasfilm to Disney should be finalized. And since George Lucas owns 100 percent of his company -- which has little to no debt -- all that money goes to him.

After that, Lucas plans to quickly put the bulk of the money into a foundation that will primarily focus on educational issues, a spokesperson for Lucasfilm tells THR.
Click to expand...

Lucas donated the money from Disney. He essentially gave Lucasfilm to Disney in exchange for a charity donation.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
kswiston said:
If it opens over $300M worldwide, it will easily top $1B. Holidays will boost its legs, and China isnt until January.
Click to expand...

True but honestly I'm not thinking it goes significantly over. Maybe 1.1 or 1.2. IDK maybe I'm just misreading the market but the film doesn't seem to have anything near the buzz of episode VII (though obviously still huge). I think it may be a bit more front-loaded
 
brickarts295

brickarts295

Member
BocoDragon said:
I think he was aware it was a bargain. It was a gentleman's deal to get a little money to give to charity and put Star Wars in the hands of the one company who could properly shepherd it into the future. Dude's already infinitely rich, couldn't spend the money he had if he tried.
Click to expand...

Cheebo said:
TFA was already in pre-production (Lucas hired Michael Ardnt) as was early planning for Rogue One and the Han Solo spin-off when Lucas sold it. Lucas picked Kasdan to write the Han Solo film. Knoll pitched Rogue One after Lucas hired Kennedy before the deal with Disney. It's not like he didn't expect what was being released, this stuff we are getting was already in the plans.

It was more about getting Lucasfilm to a safe home that would protect the brand. Lucas gave all the cash from the deal to charity anyway (Lucas signed the Buffet pledge to give most of his wealth away in his lifetime).
Click to expand...

kswiston said:
I dont really think he cared about maximizing his buyout. Disney was in a better position to utilize the Star Wars property than a lot of studios, and Marvel/Pixar already demonstrated their willingness to let sub studios do their thing as long as they were getting those tentpole quotas.
Click to expand...

JonnyDBrit said:
He deliberately undersold it to the people he thought would best handle the franchise, and put most of the cash - much of the sale was in Disney stock - to charity.
Click to expand...

Thanks for all the responses. Yeah Disney is the only company that would make sense to own Star Wars. Can't even Imagine Fox or even WB XD
 
K

kswiston

Member
Obliterator said:
True but honestly I'm not thinking it goes significantly over. Maybe 1.1 or 1.2. IDK maybe I'm just misreading the market but the film doesn't seem to have anything near the buzz of episode VII (though obviously still huge). I think it may be a bit more front-loaded
Click to expand...

Well, The Force Awakens legs on a $280M opening would give you $1.095B worldwide. TFA legs on $350M would give you $1.368B. So there is room for Rogue One to be more frontloaded while still clearing $1B, and possibly beating Civil War.

Also, these early WW opening estimates tend to be underestimates. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Rogue One open to $175M domestic and $400M+ WW that weekend. I think more of the difference between it and TFA will come from legs in subsequent weeks, vs that first weekend.
 
K

kswiston

Member
petethepanda said:
It's insane to think about just how much money Disney movies have made this year.
Click to expand...

They will set a new studio record the weekend that Rogue One launches. Disney will pass $6.7B Worldwide in 2016 this weekend. The current worldwide box office record for a studio in one year is $6.89B by Universal last year.

Disney already broke Universal's domestic record (also set last year) this past week.

EDIT: They could potentially make a run for $3B domestic this year if Rogue One is big enough. WW, they will likely end up at somewhere close to $7.5B.
 
H

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
Why do I have a feeling Donny Yen is going to do some kung fu and then be killed quickly in a rather boring manner.
 
T

tearsintherain

Member
I have thursday night tickets but I'm a bit surprised you can still easily buy tickets for thursday, friday, or saturday in my area. Almost every showing. TFA was 100% sold out within a few hours and they started adding tons and tons and tons of showings and even those sold out pretty fast.

I'm also a little gun shy now, two movies so far this year should have been great but were absolutely AWFUL - Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad. I secretly want Rogue One to be great because I'm a huge star wars fanboi, but I am trying to keep expectations in check in case it turns out to suck bad.

I think the USA premiere is monday so hopefully spoiler free scores should be coming out soon.
 
Maximus.

Maximus.

Member
brickarts295 said:
Lucas really undersold Star Wars for $4b.
But then again maybe he didn't expect Disney to make a big success again.
But it's $4b and he's old so yeah I can't see him complaining.
Click to expand...

I don't think it was necessarily about making money. Didn't he or isn't he going to donate it all anyways? If anything the franchise is in the best hands possible.
 
M

MattKeil

BIGTIME TV MOGUL #2
Cheebo said:
TFA was already in pre-production (Lucas hired Michael Ardnt) as was early planning for Rogue One and the Han Solo spin-off when Lucas sold it. Lucas picked Kasdan to write the Han Solo film. Knoll pitched Rogue One after Lucas hired Kennedy before the deal with Disney. It's not like he didn't expect what was being released, this stuff we are getting was already in the plans.

It was more about getting Lucasfilm to a safe home that would protect the brand. Lucas gave all the cash from the deal to charity anyway (Lucas signed the Buffet pledge to give most of his wealth away in his lifetime).
Click to expand...

And to give Lucasfilm creative autonomy from Disney. They treat Lucasfilm essentially as a third party company as part of the terms.
 
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