How many publishers are going to forgo that 150M install base to sell a Switch 2 exclusive? The install base ratio is going to be very lopsided in the first few years.
Switch 2 has a bit of an uphill battle imo.
they will have to.
you can't port 99% of current gen titles to Switch, but you'll absolutely be able to port most of them to Switch 2.
so unless they make specific Switch 1 games, they will have no choice but to leave the Switch 1 behind.
this isn't a cross gen period like the one of the Series X and PS5. their predecessors can easily run most current gen games, while the Switch already struggled to run the few ports of PS4 and Xbox One games it got.
the only reason cross gen was this much of a thing on Series X and PS5 is because it was possible.
before this console generation it was almost impossible to do cross gen development unless you made dedicated and highly adjusted versions for the prior generation.
even an early last gen game like Titanfall is considered a miracle port on 360. because even these launch window titles were almost impossible to port to the older consoles. games that tried like Shadow of Mordor came out nearly unplayable, and Ubisoft didn't even bother trying to port The Crew to PS3 because even the 360 port was barely even possible.
and the Switch 2 will be in a similar position, because it very much follows a similar generational shift to that of Gen7 to Gen8.
Indy titles and small scale tiles will probably still release on Switch 1. but AA and AAA games will often be impossible to port over.
