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TAKE-TWO GAMBLING ON A SECOND CHANCE
By DIANE HESS
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June 6, 2004 -- Would you trust your life to a drug-smuggling, cop-killing larcenist? Maybe not. But troubled New York-based video-game producer Take-Two Interactive has no choice.
The company publishes the wildly successful "Grand Theft Auto" series, which lets gamers live out their most lurid fantasies by playing a gangster. But a broader look at Take-Two's recent performance suggests that perhaps crime doesn't pay.
Take-Two missed earnings expectations in its first quarter and will do so again when it announces second-quarter results Tuesday. The company has said it will lose 15 cents per share - down from a previously predicted 33-cent profit.
T2 is relying heavily on the October release of its fifth "Grand Theft Auto" game - dubbed "San Andreas" - to revive sales.
If "San Andreas" fails to hit "reset" on Take-Two's success, the company could be a takeover target for another media company, such as Viacom, Warner Brothers or Disney, said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities.
Disappointing earnings aren't Take-Two's only problem. Accounting scandals and government investigations have created deficits in the company's offices as well.
In April, the company announced the resignation of its chief executive, Jeffrey Lapin. At the same time, it reappointed Paul Eibeler as president.
Eibeler previously held the position between 2000 and 2003 - a period for which the company has restated its results. The Securities and Exchange Commission is in the process of a formal investigation of the company for its accounting.
"I am short the stock," said Mark Cohodes, general partner of hedge fund Rocker Partners. "I think that it is a disaster.
"We identify companies that are fads, frauds and failures," Cohodes added. "And we think this company is all of those things."
In April, T2 blamed its disappointing second quarter on, among other things, the delay of the Western video game "Red Dead Revolver." The game hit stores last month, but has gotten disappointing reviews. The company, however, is putting most of its hopes on "San Andreas."
"There is a chance 'San Andreas' will sell like the last couple of games in the series," said Shawn Milne, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, who covers the industry. "Everyone thinks that it is going to be the biggest product on the market."
Paul Tryon, an analyst at First Albany, stressed that Take-Two needs to nurture other franchises. "In order to survive, they are going to have to develop other successful products," he said. "This is not an industry where a single game can exist for longer than one cycle."
Sometime in 2006, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are expected to launch new consoles, something Take-Two has to take advantage of, he added. "Take-Two will need to come up with other games to sustain growth," said Tryon.
http://www.nypost.com/business/25160.htm