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[Malyse]

Donald Trump is going to be the President of the United States. But if oddsmakers are right, there's a 50-50 chance that he won't hold the office for that long. There are many reasons Donald Trump could be impeached or resign before his first term ends.

On January 23, Trump's odds of leaving office before his first term remain even.

The odds are part of a group of ”Donald Trump Specials" offered by Ladbrokes, including bets that he won't be reelected in 2020 and that he'll visit Russia by the end of the year. Now, gambling odds aren't exactly reliable predictive science — they're pretty far from it in a lot of cases — but there's lots of reason to think that a bet against Trump finishing his first term is a pretty good bet.

Since the original odds went up, Ladbrokes has added a new suite of bets. Gamblers can now wager on which year Trump will leave office. Options include 2021, which is when he would leave if he loses the 2020 election, and terrifyingly, ”2025 or later" — emphasis ours.

The odds are part of a group of ”Donald Trump Specials" offered by Ladbrokes, including bets that he won't be reelected in 2020 and that he'll visit Russia by the end of the year. Now, gambling odds aren't exactly reliable predictive science — they're pretty far from it in a lot of cases — but there's lots of reason to think that a bet against Trump finishing his first term is a pretty good bet.

Since the original odds went up, Ladbrokes has added a new suite of bets. Gamblers can now wager on which year Trump will leave office. Options include 2021, which is when he would leave if he loses the 2020 election, and terrifyingly, ”2025 or later" — emphasis ours.


The Constitution states that ”Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors" are grounds for impeachment. In reality, impeachment is a highly political weapon since Congress defines what a ”High Crime and Misdemeanor" is. Heck, if the opposing party is mad enough and has enough power, a blow job is an impeachable offense (if you lie about it in court, that is). Only two presidents, Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson, have been impeached, though Richard Nixon surely would've been had he not resigned in the wake of the Watergate scandal. For Trump to actually be impeached, the highly Republican House of Representatives would have to initiate the process. Here are some of the reasons why they could, perhaps, impeach Trump.

If some of the allegations in the recently published leaked memo about possible Russian blackmail material over Trump are true, that would be an impeachable offense. No, not the golden shower part (Article One isn't out to kink-shame), but the treason part. If Trump is proven to have been in contact with the Russian government, and is letting Vladimir Putin overtly shape American policy, that could be reason for him to get the boot.

Trump's lawyers say that he, as the president, is legally protected from having conflicts of interest. This is different from not having conflicts of interest in the first place. Although Trump gave his two sons control of his business (which is not at all the same as placing assets in a blind trust), there's still a lot of potential for shady activity. Trump says he'll donate any money when foreign representatives stay at a Trump hotel to the U.S. Treasury, but that could still be perceived as a bribe. They're staying at a Trump hotel to curry favor with the president.

Trump could accidentally divulge confidential information to his family — or, Christ, to the whole world in a 3 a.m. tweet. Such a wanton breach of national security could be viewed as grounds for impeachment.

Or, he could lie under oath about literally anything.

The president-elect could also sexually assault somebody. It wouldn't be the first time he's done so, allegedly.

https://www.inverse.com/article/26292-donald-trump-impeachment-odds

 

[smokeymicpot]

Lol at the odds going past 2020.

 

[UberTag]

His Republican masters are fine with this. They've already planned for this contingency.
He's the designated fall guy for all of Ryan's unpopular policies that are being rolled out.
He's just the figurehead that signs on the dotted line in between tantrums.

Trump is just their stooge.

Lol at the odds going past 2020.

The hilarious part is that they added an "or later" to the end of 2025. As if they're openly considering the possibility of him remaining entrenched as a figurehead for the Neo-American fascist regime beyond 8 years.

 

[norm9]

That 8/1 2018 is pretty tempting.

 

[Zaru]

Lol at the odds going past 2020.

I love 2025+ more since at the point where you're on your third term as POTUS, I don't think impeachment ... WORKS anymore

 

[Ordinaryundone]

Impeachment doesn't undo all of his cabinet picks and VP, but it'd be better than nothing. At the very least it would send a message.

 

[jon bones]

His Republican masters are fine with this. They've already planned for this contingency.
He's the designated fall guy for all of Ryan's unpopular policies that are being rolled out.
He's just the figurehead that signs on the dotted line in between tantrums.

Trump is just their stooge.

Yeah, I bet they're loving having an even more 'useful idiot' than GWB.

 

[rac]

I love 2025+ more since at the point where you're on your third term as POTUS, I don't think impeachment ... WORKS anymore

you never know

 

[Magwik]

Lol at the odds going past 2020.

I would post the *chuckles sovietly* image but I'm simply too demoralized to do so at the moment.

 

[smokeymicpot]

I love 2025+ more since at the point where you're on your third term as POTUS, I don't think impeachment ... WORKS anymore

They are all great. Fuck in 2025 who ever took that bet will be laughing.

 

[Phobophile]

I don't have confidence in the Congress to hold the new administration accountable. And forgive me if I'm skeptical about arbitrary probabilities generated by a process that's even less scientific than political polling.

 

[johancruijff]

They're gonna make bank with hopeful people

 

[UberTag]

I don't have confidence in the Congress to hold the new administration accountable. And forgive me if I'm skeptical about arbitrary probabilities generated by a process that's even less scientific than political polling.

They may hold Trump accountable. He's high-maintenance and just a shield until he's no longer of use to them.
They won't hold anyone else accountable, though. And all of these policies rolled out this week... these will be in place whether we have Trump or not.

 

[SillyEskimo]

What odds did they give Hillary to win the election?

 

[Strike]

I wouldn't count on that. There is no such thing as a sure thing. Especially after last year. People have to get out there and make things happen. His approval rating is the lowest of any incoming president. That's a start.

 

[dan2026]

Ha no!

Trump is going to last longer than 8 years.
The orange psycho will already be looking for ways he can extend his term indefinatly.
Prepare for God Emperor Trump's eternal reign.

 

[FrankCanada97]

What odds did they give Hillary to win the election?

I read that UK sites had Clinton at 1:3 and Trump at 2.75:1 one week before the election.

 

[Gutek]

Fascists don't leave office peacefully.

 

[Straight Edge]

Impeachment does not mean removal from office. So yes he will be impeached.

 

[singhr1]

Fascists don't leave office peacefully.

This. Once they taste power...

Also, Pence isn't any better, and in a lot of ways worse. If the whole admin is corrupted, impeachment of the head dumbass is not enough.

 

[LiK]

Hopefully impeachment gets him to resign like Nixon.

 

[Htown]

It's not going to happen, folks.

We're in for at least four years of this.

 

[Guevara]

Kinda want to bet on him staying for 4 years, maybe even 8.

 

[MMarston]

They are all great. Fuck in 2025 who ever took that bet will be laughing.

And then crying.

 

[SparkleMotion]

Trump is not going to give up the presidency after 8 years, and Republicans will fight to keep him in power. We need to start preparing for Civil War II.

 

[FlyinJ]

What are the odds of Donald Trump betting on himself then raking in the winnings when he makes the outcome true.

 

[slit]

Trump is not going to give up the presidency after 8 years, and Republicans will fight to keep him in power. We need to start preparing for Civil War II.

I hope you're kidding, I honestly can't tell anymore.

 

[PantherLotus]

Everything comes down to one man.

Good luck.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

What were the odds of him getting elected in the first place?

Don't need an anvil upside the head to tell you it ain't happening. The man is untouchable.

 

[DeviantBoi]

He won't get impeached.

But he won't run for a second term, either.

Pence/Rubio 2020

Senator Elizabeth Warren will become the first woman President in 2020.

 

[FrankCanada97]

What were the odds of him getting elected in the first place?

Don't need an anvil upside the head to tell you it ain't happening. The man is untouchable.

2.75:1

 

[smokeymicpot]

He won't get impeached.

But he won't run for a second term, either.

Pence/Rubio 2020

Senator Elizabeth Warren will become the first woman President in 2020.

Warren will be seen as to close to Clinton.

 

[SpaceWolf]

I think on account of Trump's health alone, he's not going to be able to make it a full four years.

 

[Daft_Cat]

For the first couple of years (prior to the mid-terms) his odds of impeachment fall on the whims of the Republican Party. Given that they control congress, I imagine it would take either catastrophic approval ratings, or some sort of cataclysmic national crisis - the sort of thing that could threaten the future electability of the party.

I don't see it happening. At least not until 2018 or beyond - and even if Dems do win big, who knows if there will actually be something worth impeaching him over?

 

[Fuchsdh]

His Republican masters are fine with this. They've already planned for this contingency.
He's the designated fall guy for all of Ryan's unpopular policies that are being rolled out.
He's just the figurehead that signs on the dotted line in between tantrums.

Yeah, at this point I see Trump as being pretty effective at displacing dissatisfaction with Republican governing. They might loathe him, but they're saddled to him as long as he's popular with those "deplorables" aka the major force that they have left to turn to for elections, and he has a use as a scapegoat, assuming that the shit doesn't roll downhill onto them.

But if this election proved anything, it's that it's best not to bet on tumultuous times.

How much did PoliGAF lose betting thousands on Hillary winning the election?

 

[DeviantBoi]

I think on account of Trump's health alone, he's not going to be able to make it a full four years.

Maybe we can get him apoplectic with rage enough to make him have a stroke.

Keep pointing to him about those inauguration numbers every day and we'll get there soon enough.

 

[dakini]

Whether he gets impeached or not is kind of a 'hope for the best, expect the worst' situation.

 

[UCBooties]

Since he would never resign, that leaves impeachment, and I think that there are a couple of pre-conditions that would need to occur before that becomes realistic.

1. Congressional Republicans have gotten everything they want out of him. It's Christmas in January for Republicans right now so we're seeing a huge rush of legislation that they've been wanting to pass for a decade. Donald Trump is going to be untouchable until they get his name on every unpopular thing they want to pass.

2. Trump's popularity remains low. I know this seems like a given, but if Trump's numbers increase, expect the Republican leadership to continue to cover for him. That's important because...

3. The 2018 midterm elections are out of play. Congressional Republicans need to either get Trump out as soon as possible or hang on to him until after the midterms. Under no circumstances are House leadership going to countenance an ongoing Impeachment process of a sitting Republican president while their own members are facing a reelection vote. Throwing Trump out will damage party credibility and invite backlash from the base. They need to ensure that the House is locked down (they can be pretty sure of the Senate) going into the next Presidential cycle. This will be doubly important to them because 2020 is a census year and they will be looking to repeat the work they did in 2010 with Project REDMAP.

4. Trump commits unpopular impeachable offense. It is likely that Donald Trump has already broken a number of laws, not least of which his utter refusal to divest himself of his numerous conflicts of interest. But the Republican Party need him to make an unforced error once the above conditions are met so they can push him out on a wave of popular outcry.

Remember, the Republican Party will not impeach Donald Trump unless it is in the Republican Party's best interest to do so.

 

[SparkleMotion]

I hope you're kidding, I honestly can't tell anymore.

They'll spin term limits as "fake news" that seek to weaken Trump's regime.

 

[GutsOfThor]

Why would repubs impeach him? He has given them a cult of braindead zombies who would sacrifice their first born if he asked.

 

[PJV3]

I can see them dumping Trump, get 4 years unchallenged rule and a supreme Court judge pick, then just hold onto Congress and fuck over the next Democrat in the White house.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Warren will be seen as to close to Clinton.

Because they both are old and have vaginas?

Not questioning you because sadly you're probably right.

 

[DeviantBoi]

Warren will be seen as to close to Clinton.

I don't think you can find a Democrat in three years that didn't support Clinton in her bid. Even Bernie was behind her after she won the primaries.

I think she's the Democrat's best bet in 2020.

Still... I kinda wish Al Franken would run.

Warren/Franken... my dream ticket for 2020

 

[UCBooties]

Warren will be seen as to close to Clinton.

Obama/Warren 20/20?

 

[RedHill]

Let's be honest, do we see the old angry man LIVING past 2025?

 

[MMarston]

Why would repubs impeach him? He has given them a cult of braindead zombies who would sacrifice their first born if he asked.

He can still be a liability for them if he becomes way to volatile.


That said, given the amount of policies he's implementing for them, he wouldn't be missed if they decide to impeach him. He'll be an expendable puppet after a certain point.

 

[Afrodium]

7/2 odds he'll go past 2025 🤔

 

[toadsworth]

I bet my coworker $100 that he's impeached by the end of the year.

I think congress will make him angry by deciding not to fund the wall or some other ludicrous policy, he will refuse to sign anything and they will impeach him over his conflicts. It makes no difference if it's him or pence in the oval office, their policies are getting rammed down our throats.

 

[rjinaz]

I don't think he'll be impeached. But I also don't think Trump be reelected. He's going to push too hard too fast and start targeting people like the undocumented and Muslims, and the votes won't be there.

I look forward to Republicans trying to blame everything on Trump though in the end, even as they benefit from almost everything he does.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Some Republican senators backed the committee into russian involvement into the election. That will likely be what they will use to impeach him with