Support NeoGAF

[DrLazy]

Edit: All I'm saying is that Christmas 2004 is packed with an unbelievable lineup of games and some are bound to underperform. Everybody loves predicting the top of the sales charts, so why not the bottom? Eh, forget it. Bad idea I guess.

My Predictions
1. Fable - (Fell off the hype train. I just don't see it selling.)
2. Splinter Cell 3 (PC) - (too many too fast)
3. Jak 3, Ratchet and Clank 3, Sly 3 - (see above. Too many platformers.)
4. Donkey Konga - (Drums?)
5. Timesplitters 3 (too much FPS competition)
6. Forza (similar too above)
7. RE 4 ( Gulp. It will under perform. The franchise was beaten into the ground. On the wrong system.)
8. Geist (It sucks)
9. MGS3 (Gulp. Too many ports, and people disappointed with MGS2, plus Splinter Cell and other stealth clones.)
10. The DS. (Oh shit.)

 

[Matlock]

Yeah, how about not?

 

[Dead]

worst thread ever

 

[Bailey's Dad]

I loved MGS2 and I'm looking forward to Jak3.

THREAD CLOSED.

 

[belgurdo]

mission failed

 

[Bailey's Dad]

fission mailed

 

[DopeyFish]

fission mailed

 

[cvxfreak]

Tough call.

 

[Andy787]

penis.

 

[Wellington]

3. Jak 3, Ratchet and Clank 3, Sly 3 - (see above. Too many platformers.)
)

Edit: rofl @ Sly 3. But man, there isn't ENOUGH Ratchet & Clank, what the hell is your problem.

 

[Justin Bailey]

 

[Wario64]

Halo 2

 

[DopeyFish]

1. Fable - (Fell off the hype train. I just don't see it selling.)

I think it fell off the hype train a long time ago, but recently has started to impress a lot of people. Don't forget the last 2 major RPGs for Xbox sold EXTREMELY well (Morrowind, KOTOR). I think Fable will sell well if you ask me.


2. Splinter Cell 3 (PC) - (too many too fast)

Possible. I think Splinter Cell 3 for PC will sell a lot better than the Xbox version. Even though it does look incredible... people won't be able to see past Pandora Tomorrow's generally lacking Single Player mode.


3. Jak 3, Ratchet and Clank 3, Sly 3 - (see above. Too many platformers.)

Maybe. But since quality platformers on PS2 are almost as hard to come by as RPGs on Xbox, people will buy them. As Nintendo has proved before, there can never be too many


4. Donkey Konga - (Drums?)

It's not like they expect it to sell 2 million units.


5. Timesplitters 3 (too much FPS competition)

Hard to say on this one, but I would say bombs away.


6. Forza (similar too above)

Microsoft hasn't really shown everything off in this title yet, nor has the "hype-train" started rolling. I personally think it will sell well as long as they do it better than SegaGT.


7. RE 4 ( Gulp. It will under perform. The franchise was beaten into the ground. On the wrong system.)

E3 outlook was positive, still don't know if casuals will take the bait. It does look better than any other RE before it though, especially gameplay wise.


8. Geist (It sucks)

Can't really say, haven't seen anything of this title to comment.


9. MGS3 (Gulp. Too many ports, and people disappointed with MGS2, plus Splinter Cell and other stealth clones.)

I don't think Splinter Cell really took that much userbase away from Metal Gear just because of the totally opposite sides of the spectrum they are on. Metal Gear is story driven with mild stealth elements. Splinter Cell is more stealth driven with a mild story. I honestly think, this will be no bomb.


10. The DS. (Oh shit.)

Um, yeah. *points to GBA sales*

 

[SolidSnakex]

There's only 1 game that's a lock for a bomb this year Driver 3. I doubt anything else will bomb, some might underperform but no bombs.

 

[DrLazy]

1. Fable - (Fell off the hype train. I just don't see it selling.)

I think it fell off the hype train a long time ago, but recently has started to impress a lot of people. Don't forget the last 2 major RPGs for Xbox sold EXTREMELY well (Morrowind, KOTOR). I think Fable will sell well if you ask me.

That's a good point with Morrowind and KOTOR. If it really does make its release date well before Halo 2, it might have a chance. I still say the Xbox audience is fickle and won't dig it.

6. Forza (similar too above)

Microsoft hasn't really shown everything off in this title yet, nor has the "hype-train" started rolling. I personally think it will sell well as long as they do it better than SegaGT.

And do it better than Project Gotham 2. I just think it doesn't stand a chance this Christmas with no name recognition and the Burnout 3 and Underground coming Xbox's way.

9. MGS3 (Gulp. Too many ports, and people disappointed with MGS2, plus Splinter Cell and other stealth clones.)

I don't think Splinter Cell really took that much userbase away from Metal Gear just because of the totally opposite sides of the spectrum they are on. Metal Gear is story driven with mild stealth elements. Splinter Cell is more stealth driven with a mild story. I honestly think, this will be no bomb.

I really think a lot of people were more attracted to MGS because of the stealth elements and considered the story a bonus.

10. The DS. (Oh shit.)

Um, yeah. *points to GBA sales*

Yeah, I'll just agree to disagree. I think it looks great, but it will confuse consumers. Lord knows there's enough threads about this.

There's only 1 game that's a lock for a bomb this year Driver 3. I doubt anything else will bomb, some might underperform but no bombs.

Well thats what I meant. Its all semantics. I'm changing the thread title.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"
I really think a lot of people were more attracted to MGS because of the stealth elements and considered the story a bonus."

I don't think MGS3 will be hurt by the other stealth games just because the style of stealth if offers is completely different from the others and specifcally SC. SC's style of stealth is much more straight forward and trial based. You've got to do everything in a certain way. MGS' is more open ended and allows you to play around with certain situations that you couldn't in SC. You've then got the whole polish and the entire package that MGS offers. It's similar to GTA I guess, while GTA has a bunch games similar to it none of them actually give you the same package that GTA offers.

 

[Meier]

All I know is I didnt buy RE0 and didnt care for the REmake because of the controls, but I played RE4 at E3 and utterly loved it. Hopefully there will be more people like me who buy it due to the fact it feels fresh.

 

[sc0la]

REmake and RE0 both outsold forcasts afaik. Those forcasts were not high mind you but they were still passed. I think if Capcom again reasonably forcasts the game it can't really "underperform"

 

[explodet]

I believe Timesplitters 3 is 2005.

Just sayin'.

 

[Gregory]

Considering how PGR2 bombed and RSC2 now bombing even worse, I think it`s pretty certain that Forza will also.

Sega GT2002, which in all fairness was pretty good and the only GT kind of game on Xbox (and still is), also did terrible. I don`t exactly see big things for Forza.

 

[u_neek]

Viewtiful Joe 2 will bomb... it's simply not fresh anymore.. Capcom doesn't know when to stop!

 

[Insertia]

Burnout 3- complete unknown racing series, I don't think having EA publish it will change much.

Forza- if PGR2 and RSCII can't be hits, I can't imagine this doing anything

Viewtiful Joe 2- i don't think it'll receive the sales of the original and it will be highly ignored by the PS2 audience.

Resident Evil 4- people have had enough of Resident Evil. See RE0's sales.

Timesplitters 3- another small franchise that even EA can't save.

Metroid Prime 2- not going to 'bomb', but I definitely see it performing under expectations.

Doom3- heard nothing but bad things about this game from people who've played it at E3. I expect a mediocre game and maybe that'll cut into it's sales potential.

Geist- duh

Sly Cooper 2- duh

Fable- looks kind of bland and the hype level has dropped almost entirely since it was first shown.

Nintendo DS- call me crazy, but it's going to take a lot for this thing to catch on. *runs*

 

[ToyMachine228]

Yes, TimeSplitters: Future Perfect isn't scheduled to ship until 2005. And Geist may possibly be moved into 2005 as well. I'm not even going to comment on this awful list.

 

[Keio]

Predicting game sales is like forecasting the weather. It never truly works out.

Consider Nintendo's Fall 2002 lineup - it was great, but the system had a mediocre Christmas period. Then 2003 - Mario Kart is ok, but it's no Metroid Prime, but look at the sales at $99.

Consider Enter the Matrix. A shit game, the shit sequels at the movies - and how many millions did it sell in the end? We'll see Driv3r do too well compared to it's utter lack of quality...

This thread might be interesting if people speculated on whether or not the games are able to deliver on the grand promises they make in such short dev times. But sales are irrelevant in so many ways - except of course the future of the industry.

 

[ge-man]

There's only 1 game that's a lock for a bomb this year Driver 3. I doubt anything else will bomb, some might underperform but no bombs.

I pretty much agree with this. I think most publishers related to the list have realistic expectations for the holidays. It's not like anyone expects these games to sell like GTA (which Atari has foolishly banked on for Driv3r).

 

[Alcibiades]

depends on what companies are expecting for sales, but right now the 2 that are in danger of not meeting outrageous expectations are RE4 and MGS3...

There is a ton of competition on PS2 in October and November, and I actually think Splinter Cell has taken a lot of the "stealth" crowd, regardless of how different the games are, there is no doubt going to be comparisons...

While people can say it was on the wrong system and stuff, the fact is even on the GCN, The Twin Snakes should have performed better... even though many might not think it a great game, it was at least decent to have bombed so hard...

I think both REmake and RE: 0 have performed OK for the amount of shelf space and distribution they are getting, but at the same time Halo 2, Echoes, the PS2 lineup, etc... are a lot to contend with, so maybe RE4 won't stand out...

That said, for "being on the wrong system", the two new ones on GCN have performed pretty well...

 

[Baron Aloha]

Alright, I'll bite. In no particular order:

01. Forza
02. Fable
03. The PS2/Xbox only Godzilla sequel.
04. Prince of Persia 2
05. DS (unless it's design gets a bit of an overhaul)
06. Viewtiful Joe PS2 port
07. Devil May Cry 3
08. Juiced (Sorry, NFSU is king)
09. That Namco racing game that's just like Juiced and NFSU (for the same reasons as 8)

and finally...

10. Grand Theft Auto - San Andreas

That's right!!! I put GTA down. I'm guessing that it won't bomb in the traditional sense... but I don't think it will sell nearly as well as Vice City. The central theme just isn't as appealing to most people as VC was.

One thing's for sure. I won't be buying anything but AAA games come November and even then it will be just a couple of them. I'm waiting for the dust to settle in February to pick up most of the games on my list at cheap-ass prices (like I did this year with the games that I predicted would bomb). Getting POP, BG&E, XIII, Sphinx, 1080 2, and a crapload of other holiday 2003 titles for well under $20 on average was so nice. And with so much competition this holiday season there will be a TON of bombs (or rather, games that fall below expectations).

 

[epmode]

lol. for reals.

 

[MrPing1000]

I can't believe I'm the only one that thinks Geist is going to be absolutely amazing can i?

 

[AssMan]

Viewtiful Joe 2 will bomb... it's simply not fresh anymore.. Capcom doesn't know when to stop!

Not fresh anymore!? What planet are you from?

 

[Firest0rm]

Geist has been moved back to 2005.

 

[cvxfreak]

Count me in for Geist.

 

[dark10x]

Maybe. But since quality platformers on PS2 are almost as hard to come by as RPGs on Xbox, people will buy them. As Nintendo has proved before, there can never be too many

What the hell? PS2 has tons of quality platformers available for it (more than XBOX and GC).

I really don't think MGS3 will underperform either. Even people who were disappointed in MGS2 seem to be very interested in this. They are changing it enough that it looks like something truly fresh. I don't believe Splinter Cell will have had any effect on it either. It's name is associated with XBOX -AND- the single player component is simply not very good (and people have started to realize this).

Twin Snakes really isn't a good indicator either. Poor marketing on a less popular system (where the game isn't as well known anyways) certainly did not help.

 

[Kobun Heat]

Last time I asked, Geist was Q4 2004. And the last time I asked was Thursday. And when I asked, I was like, "Come on now, REALLY?" And they were like "yeah."

So... it's still this year AFAIK.

*also boards the Geist hype train*

 

[Mooreberg]

But since quality platformers on PS2 are almost as hard to come by as RPGs on Xbox, people will buy them. As Nintendo has proved before, there can never be too many

ahaha way to have your head up your ass

 

[ElyrionX]

I'm going to have a massive lifestyle change pretty soon and I don't see myself having much time for videogames anymore. Therefore, I have decided to only pick up the absolute good games and nothing more. Looking at the games coming this holidays, its going to be hard doing that. VERY hard. Damnit, anyone else have this problem? I don't want to spend a bomb picking up ten games, eight of which I would spend an hour or less on.....

Anyway, back on topic, I don't think Fable will bomb. The trailers coming out of E3 were fairly impressive..........

As for MGS3 and Splinter Cell, I am getting SOOOOOOO sick of these stealth games that I don't think I will be picking either up.