SolidSnakex
Member
CVXFREAK said:
Well if you're going by worldwide then swap GT4 with Madden and i'll agree completely. Maddens only popular in the US, GT4's huge worldwide and will launch worldwide this year.
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Xbox 2 In Christmas 2005
- Thread starter Fallopian Tube
- Start date
Well if you're going by worldwide then swap GT4 with Madden and i'll agree completely. Maddens only popular in the US, GT4's huge worldwide and will launch worldwide this year.
shpankey
not an idiot
I don't uinderstand why Microsoft want's to launch a year early. Honestly, the Xbox is just now gathering steam, getting a really respectable list of games out and a tantilizing list of games coming. Xbox Live is highly respected. They've got some momentum. They should roll with it. Besides, nobody wants to buy a new $300 - $400 console yet. Nobody will (not in mass anyways). Certainly not with PS3 and GCN 2 looming so large a year later.
I think Microsoft puts to much into the fact that they launched Xbox so late. What I mean is, it seems they believe if they can launch a year ahead of PS3 as PS2 did to Xbox, they will get that same kind of lead. That's just not the case and I am confused as to why Microsoft seems to have that attitude.
IMO, they need to launch straight up with PS3, toe to toe, and beat it in some way (add in an extra game to the package or something to make it a better bargain). Their best bet is also to have an absolutely KILLER launch lineup of games. Guaranteed, if they can have better games at launch, they may be able to hang close to PS3 and not let it get so large a lead this time.
Anyways, a 2005 launch of Xbox 2 is complete and utter death. Even as an Xbox fan, I don't want a new console yet. I am very satisfied with where we are right now as far as games go.
I think Microsoft puts to much into the fact that they launched Xbox so late. What I mean is, it seems they believe if they can launch a year ahead of PS3 as PS2 did to Xbox, they will get that same kind of lead. That's just not the case and I am confused as to why Microsoft seems to have that attitude.
IMO, they need to launch straight up with PS3, toe to toe, and beat it in some way (add in an extra game to the package or something to make it a better bargain). Their best bet is also to have an absolutely KILLER launch lineup of games. Guaranteed, if they can have better games at launch, they may be able to hang close to PS3 and not let it get so large a lead this time.
Anyways, a 2005 launch of Xbox 2 is complete and utter death. Even as an Xbox fan, I don't want a new console yet. I am very satisfied with where we are right now as far as games go.
MightyHedgehog
Member
shpankey, a year and half from now, XBOX 1 will be winding down in software. As will the GC and PS2. I think MS is trying to ensure that they will be the tangible definition of next-gen while its competitors are still just talking about it. If the launch software is great, the price right, and the marketing effective, I cannot see how it makes the system dead. After all, it's not just MS' games on tap for X2's launch and first year at retail. EA obviously means quite a bit for credibility, as far as them giving their first next-gen software to MS a year ahead of anyone else. This isn't a DC thing, to be sure.
shpankey
not an idiot
Well, I believe there will be a perception (whether true or not) that the PS3 and GCN 2 will be more powerful, and it would be more "wise to wait". Some potential buyers will think "Dreamcast". Some will remember how they got burned before. Some will just believe the systems coming a year later will be better because technology improves (again, whether true or not is irrelevant). Some late adopters of Xbox will feel burned for buying Xbox while MS starts focusing on something else.
It's just a bad move all around IMO. And I stick buy my "death" prediction if Microsoft is dumb enough to do it. Again, Microsoft is putting WAAAAY to much into the whole PS2 year head start. That's not why PS2 kicked everyone's ass so much this year. Not the big reasons at least. Microsoft seems to be assuming that if they do the same thing (launch a year early) they can replicate the PS2's lead... which won't happen. What will happen is, nobody will buy it, everyone will wait on the other two systems, it will probably be the least powerful, and eventually become a punchline.
It's just a bad move all around IMO. And I stick buy my "death" prediction if Microsoft is dumb enough to do it. Again, Microsoft is putting WAAAAY to much into the whole PS2 year head start. That's not why PS2 kicked everyone's ass so much this year. Not the big reasons at least. Microsoft seems to be assuming that if they do the same thing (launch a year early) they can replicate the PS2's lead... which won't happen. What will happen is, nobody will buy it, everyone will wait on the other two systems, it will probably be the least powerful, and eventually become a punchline.
I think it's going to be a problem for MS depending on what Nintendo does. The PS3 is coming out 2006. However, if Nintendo comes out in 2005 with Revolution the same time as Xenon, then there probably wont be a problem. In fact, it could simply be a repeat of Sega vs. Sony, except with Nintendo as Sega and MS as Sony (or vice versa), and the system which is already "winning" to be carrying momentum into the PS3 launch.
Though, if it's just Xenon standing alone... yeah, I'm guessing what shpankey said might happen to it.
Though, if it's just Xenon standing alone... yeah, I'm guessing what shpankey said might happen to it.
SolidSnakex
Member
element said:
You're talking about worldwide sales? It's going to be easy got GT4 to outsell HALO 2 as GT4 is actually popular worldwide and not just in 2 territories like HALO is.
element said:
Forza won't steal sales from either NFSU2 or Gt4. There is basically zero hype for it, and with GT4 around, I don't think it will receive much attention (much like the whole GT3/SEGA GT2003 thing).
And the Gran Turismo market can't be swayed, imo. Like Pokemon is to the GBA, Gran Turismo is a must buy for the Playstation audience.
I don't think NFSU2 can steal any sales from a series that's as integral as GT.
If it were Ridge Racer I would understand, but not GT4.
SolidSnakex
Member
jarrod said:
It's the standard for racing games though. No other racer has even close to the appeal of the series.
Those are some big, big if's.MightyHedgehog said:
Even the PS2 had a hell of a time getting developers onboard and ready for launch. In Japan, it took almost a year for a compelling "next-gen" to be released. I don't see Microsoft or the Xbox brand having the same pull as the Playstation name.
What's worse, I'm not sure where Microsoft's internal launch titles will be coming from. Unless Halo 2 (XBX) is canned in favor of Halo 2 (XB2), they have no other major BLOCKBUSTER franchise. The next best thing would be Perfect Dark Zero and that a huge question mark. Is Rare capible of pulling off another Goldeneye? Can they get a game ready when its suppose to? Is Perfect Dark even a major property? MS does have plenty of smaller franchises it can have ready, but they need more than that.
Price is another concern. It can help them, but it can also hurt them. While a quick launch does give them a window in which they can ride the higher price tag, it also prevents them from letting cost catch up to the technology. They could quickly find themselves in the same situation there in now, where the competition keeps forcing them to drop the price before they're ready. If the Xbox 2 does not start making money for MS, what are the chances of an Xbox 3? Furthermore, how much confidence would it give the consumers if the systems price dropped in the face of the more powerful competition? Unless, Nintendo's and Sony's next systems are $400 and $500 machines, don't look for the price to be a major benefit.
Finally, marketing..... I believe Sony has already has this one won. Even now, despite not having any clue as to what any of the companies are planning, how many people are claiming neither MS or Nintendo can possibly match the PS3? And Sony hasn't even started. If Microsoft's marketing can fend off the Sony hype-machine, then my hat's off to them, but I don't see it happening.
The best thing they can do is build up a strong library of launch and near launch titles and pray that Sony repeats the PS2's launch. That'll be the system's only weakness. The Xbox doesn't have the recognition to weather a PS2 like release, especially with the PS3 breathing down its neck. But these things need and 2005 release does not give them that.
If they blow the launch or can't sustain the system as the PS3 approaches, the Xbox 2 will be nothing more than the next-gen appetizer.
I dunno, both NFSU and Mario Kart are pretty appealing. Hell, even the media evidently thinks BurnOut 3 is a more appealing racer than GT4.SolidSnakex said:
Pokemon and GTA do. In fact both have this generation, despite not being bundled with hardware and getting nearly all their sales at full price.Insertia said:
Well known is a slippery term, consumer recognition always is since it's hard to quantify and record in numbers. Really though, I'm not too sure if more people would recognize GT over racers like NFSU, Mario Kart, PGR, BurnOut or Ridge Racer.... hell, most casuals probably wouldn't be able to tell five of them apart.Insertia said:
SolidSnakex
Member
element said:
You're doubting the marketing ability of Sony? The same company that marktered GT3 for a solid year (literally)? Sony always picks one game to pump their marketing into at the end of each year, GT4 is going to be that game this year.
Like I said the market for GT and the market for every other racer is different. There's a reason why it sells double the amount of any other racer and why its the only popular sim racing game on consoles.
"Hell, even the media evidently thinks BurnOut 3 is a more appealing racer than GT4."
Yah especially considering how huge has been up until now? Has the series even sold a million with Burnout 1 and 2's multiplatform combined in the US?
SolidSnakex
Member
Subitai said:
I doubt Sony really cares about that too much. You don't put marketing focus on something that might not even be a success even with a big amount of marketing. GT4 is a lock for a huge seller, marketing it will push it that much more.
If it's a lock, why spend marketing for a few a relatively residual amount extra sales? Killzone is a new brand that Sony has put a lot of resources in squarely aimed Halo. You might be right, but I think Sony is going to spend more to build a brand the way they did with SOCOM. There's just a much bigger upside to Killzone than GT4.SolidSnakex said:
SolidSnakex
Member
jarrod said:
I'd say Burnout has a much better chanc eof taking some of NFSU's sales than either do with GT4. GT's been shown to be incredibly consistant in terms of sales even with competition. NFS on the other hand has been shown to be very inconsistant it can go from being very popular like NFSU to being not so popular.
jarrod said:Pokemon and GTA do. In fact both have this generation, despite not being bundled with hardware and getting nearly all their sales at full price.
Since when is bundling a top tier 1st party game to boost hardware sales something to turn your head to?
Also, I'm sure all games receive 20%-30%(or more) of their sales when the price is lowered. Did Mario64 make up it's 6 million total while priced at it's original $60 tag?
Even still, my point goes against your claims that GT 'is not an industry unto itself'.
Gran Turismo is the racing industry.
With the exception of GT, no other current racing series comes close to the same exceptional sales or receives such a large following.
SolidSnakex
Member
Well Enthusia isn't even coming out this year. And Forza, right now atleast basically has no hype at all surrounding it. NFS and Burnout are its only real competition, and EA would need to worry more about those eating into each others sales than anything else.
jarrod said:
Um, no. Pokemon is a terrible, terrible, RPG. I've played Red and Yellow, and as RPG's they are awful. I'm not even sure the masses that buy into the series, buy it for the gameplay.
Despite Pokemons success, it has hardly influence the RPG industry as GT has the racing industry. This is because Pokemon did nothing to innovate the RPG's.
I can list countless of GT clones.
Smiles and Cries
Member
so the thread got hyjacked because no one believes the xmas 2005 launch?
does element = oxy?
does element = oxy?
Eh, I'd say casuals (who make up most of GT's sales) don't put the strict genre definers on racing games we do. It might be taboo to directly compare GT4 to NFSU2 here, but it isn't in Wal-Mart... and right now GT has the most to lose in terms of sales...SolidSnakex said:
That said, I definitely expect GT4 to be the best selling racer this year... but it wouldn't surprise me if NFSU2 came closer than everyone's expecting (and maybe passed it across all platforms).
Actually NFS has always been pretty popular in the US since the PS1 days. It's slowly built but there's not much wild fluctuation there. Which is almost the opposite of GT, having not seen any significant growth since the first release.SolidSnakex said:
SolidSnakex
Member
jarrod said:
Well whenever you're selling around 10million units per release, you don't really need to improve your sales.
Most games just sell less and less when they're selling as much as GT does, GT though manages to stay basically the same with each release.jarrod said:
Gran Turismo is the Madden of racing games.
It has nothing to lose. It's the competitors that should worry.
jarrod said:
Or you could say, NFS started off poorly, but after years and years of pumping 'em out it's finially starting to get some regonition. Gran Turismo on the other hand began with a bang and hasn't let down since.
MightyHedgehog
Member
JJConrad said:
Well, even if a console launched alongside two other major consoles the next year, it would still be a matter of if's, right?
Sony didn't give developers much more than a year to do what they did. MS has already had developers on this next-gen thinking for probably about a year now, with another year and a half 'till potential launch at Q4 2005 -- that's two and a half years of development on launch-period titles. Then you've to factor in much better development environments and better support communication for the XBOX 2 versus the PS2 pre-launch. I'm not worried there as the two launches simply cannot be compared fairly.
The XBOX name has more pull than it had before XBOX was released, which was zero. Sony had a winning gen behind it and a year and a half by itself (since, in the winner-modified history of things, DC wasn't a problem for them after PS2's launch) in the marketplace to get things straight with the PS2. You've already got several large publishers on board Xenon, so I'd think they're confident about the launch.
I'm sure that MS knows the obvious: big quality titles at launch or death. Rare has several projects in the pipeline for X2, with PD0 being the most likely candidate for being the big FPS launch title for X2. I don't see MS letting Rare allow themselves to slip on PD0's launch release. By launch, the game will have been in development longer than anything Rare has ever done. As to the quality, I'm sure it will rock. How it will compare to the best of the genre at time of release is up in the air. I, unlike many on this board, believe that Rare is still capable of making unbelievably kick-ass games.
Since MS has such a huge amount of studios to work from, I don't think you're going to have much trouble seeing range of titles representing the spectrum of genres and game types upon launch. Are they gonna be good enough to convince people to buy the system? Depends on the games and the gamers...just like anything. We're not even covering the potential for anywhere from 12-30 3rd party offerings in the first 6 months of X2's release.
As has always been the case in this industry, and especially in light of ALL the next-gen systems being far, far more costly to produce, I don't see anyone of the three being drastically different in price, even when separated by a year. There are ALWAYS early adopters for any system, but the question is obviously how many and how will it progress past the first few months at retail. With an early launch, MS has the chance to set the expectation for pricing on the next-gen console. If they want to be mean about it, they can release relatively low, forcing Sony and Nintendo to follow...incurring more losses for everyone involved. However, the deals MS has made this gen will allow for MUCH quicker drops in cost for the manufacture of their system. This was never the case for the XBOX 1.
How can one win without being on the battlefield? This is one case where history can always be counted on to show what can happen: Genesis. Yeah, it only happened once, but that certainly doesn't preclude it from happening again. The field's wide open.
Obviously they are going to build a strong library and have strong launch titles. That's the point of releasing that early. The worth of brand name recognition can quickly change. How did Sony build up and kick Nintendo's and Sega's asses right from the beginning? How did Sega with its (2-years older) Genesis put up a fight with the SNES and actually go past them for a while in the 16-bit era? Nothing's concrete and nothing's impossible, as far as this situation is concerned. A year and a half from now is a relatively long time for things to change.
This, I agree with, though it's pretty obvious.
Are you kidding? Sony doesn't bundle games with PS2 to help the hardware sales, it simply doesn't need it. Hell, back in the first half of 2001 it was still hard to actually buy a PS2 they were so in demand...Insertia said:
Mario 64 certinaly saw more revenue come from it's initial 11 million than GT3 has. And Mario 64 has passed 12 million so far...Insertia said:
Besides, GT3's made closer to 50% of it's sales at budget pricing. And it's only on one platform unlike GTA3/VC (which likely would've managed higher sales if they were completely exclusive).
Sorry, GT just can't hold a candle to the Pokemon empire. Seriously, try again.Insertia said:
Mario Kart and NFS come close currently. They haven't surpassed GT but both put up huge numbers and will likely continue to do so...Insertia said:
Funny, that's exactly how I feel about Gran Turismo. I sometimes wonder if the mindless casuals tire through the mind numbing mechanics and boring tracks only to build the funds to eventually use their dream car. In a game.Insertia said:
Er, you sure you've played Pokemon? The base collection/battle/social elements have had a huge effect on the industry at large, not even just RPGs. Hell, GT is considered "the Pokemon" of racers...Insertia said:
I bet I can list more Pokemon clones. Wanna try?Insertia said:
SolidSnakex
Member
"Mario Kart and NFS come close currently. They haven't surpassed GT but both put up huge numbers and will likely continue to do so..."
Yugioh is big too, it doesn't take away from how dominant Pokemon is. GT literally dominates the racing industry. It's the standard, that's why everytime a racer is brought up GT is mentioned somewhere. It's the quality that every racer is compared, it has the sales that every racer is compared too.
Yugioh is big too, it doesn't take away from how dominant Pokemon is. GT literally dominates the racing industry. It's the standard, that's why everytime a racer is brought up GT is mentioned somewhere. It's the quality that every racer is compared, it has the sales that every racer is compared too.
Actually no, there was a slight drop (if you consider millions slight) from GT1 to GT2 thanks to a more matured market and less time as a buget game. Expect that trend to repeat with GT3 & GT4.SolidSnakex said:Well whenever you're selling around 10million units per release, you don't really need to improve your sales.
Actually no, Madden also seems to build sales with each release. Oh yeah, it also has that magical EA branding.Insertia said:
And it hasn't grown either. And the NFS games have been "big" for over half a decade now, where's everyone been?Insertia said:
SolidSnakex
Member
"Actually no, there was a slight drop (if you consider millions slight) from GT1 to GT2 thanks to a more matured market and less time as a buget game. Expect that trend to repeat with GT3 & GT4."
GT2's problem wasn't that the market matured it was that it came out a year after GT. And considering how big of a game GT (not in terms of sales, but just in terms of the size of the game) people weren't completely finished with it. Then throw in how buggy GT2 was and that didn't exactly help it's sales either. GT3 and GT4 are being released 3 years apart and it looks to be the most polished game in the series so far.
GT2's problem wasn't that the market matured it was that it came out a year after GT. And considering how big of a game GT (not in terms of sales, but just in terms of the size of the game) people weren't completely finished with it. Then throw in how buggy GT2 was and that didn't exactly help it's sales either. GT3 and GT4 are being released 3 years apart and it looks to be the most polished game in the series so far.
MightyHedgehog
Member
And it arguably looked shittier than the first one. Which can make a difference for a series that's largely built up by how it looks.
SolidSnakex
Member
In Japan they were around 2 years apart, in the US GT1 was released in '98 and GT2 was released in '99. Point is there were several other factors for GT2 not being as big as GT1 than the market maturing. Especially since the PSone's racing market was already extremely packed back then anyway with all the Ridge Racers and NFS.