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[Suikoguy]

My father only plays one game on any console, and thats Gran Turismo.
He used to play it with the controller, but this year he is shelling out 150 for the GT Wheel too.

There is a large group of people who appreciate the detail of the GT series, and people who are expected it not to sell are in for a rude awakening.

 

[BeOnEdge]

once again, when gt3 was released, #1. there were no other racing games released around its time and if there were any, they werent as high caliber. #2. there was basically no other console competition. calling the DC a competitor is just wrong. #3. EA will want the racing market. They could care less that sony will want the racing limelight. hell i wouldnt be suprised if GT4 got pushed to january for the states. You cant rely on sales of prologue or GT3 to predict how well GT4 will do. there are just so many factors that will make it sell way less than everyone expects. its been dropping lower in gamers "most wanted" lists for months now.

 

[FriScho]

December 2005 is way too early IMO if PS3 is one year later or even 2007...

 

[GigaDrive]

my hope is, Microsoft will wait 9-10 more months until September 2006.

 

[SolidSnakex]

once again, when gt3 was released, #1. there were no other racing games released around its time and if there were any, they werent as high caliber. #2. there was basically no other console competition. calling the DC a competitor is just wrong. #3. EA will want the racing market. They could care less that sony will want the racing limelight. hell i wouldnt be suprised if GT4 got pushed to january for the states. You cant rely on sales of prologue or GT3 to predict how well GT4 will do. there are just so many factors that will make it sell way less than everyone expects. its been dropping lower in gamers "most wanted" lists for months now.

Yah we all know how well gamers most wanted lists are at predicting sales. Remember back to Shenmue 2 sitting on top of Famitsu's most wanted list and then how much it actually sold when it was released. You seem to be hoping GT4 won't be as succesful as it's ALWAYS been due to your hatred for the series more than you having any evidence of it being less popular. It's pretty interesting though that the once predicting this sales decrease are the same ones who have a huge hatred for the series.

 

[jarrod]

Yah we all know how well gamers most wanted lists are at predicting sales. Remember back to Shenmue 2 sitting on top of Famitsu's most wanted list and then how much it actually sold when it was released. You seem to be hoping GT4 won't be as succesful as it's ALWAYS been due to your hatred for the series more than you having any evidence of it being less popular. It's pretty interesting though that the once predicting this sales decrease are the same ones who have a huge hatred for the series.

Swings both ways buddy. Only GT fans are predicting bigger sales for GT4 over GT3 it seems, all the while ignoring any relevant points about increased competition, reduced hype/attention, more casual userbase/marketplace or comparable cycles (GT1 outselling GT2). Instead you've simply repeated "it's GT, that's reason enough" ad nauseum....

 

[SolidSnakex]

I'm not saying it's going to sell better than GT3, I really doubt it will. I'm saying it's going to sell consistant with how the actual series has always done. Meaning it's going to row over every other racing game, like it always has, and nothing will come close to it in sales.

 

[jarrod]

I'm not saying it's going to sell better than GT3, I really doubt it will. I'm saying it's going to sell consistant with how the actual series has always done. Meaning it's going to row over every other racing game, like it always has, and nothing will come close to it in sales.

...which is more or less what I, the self described GT hater, has been saying as well...

 

[SolidSnakex]

Well if you think GT4's going to put up the 10 million or close to it number then what's the argument about? I thought you were saying NFSU2, Burnout 3 ect. were going to cause the series to dip to 3 or so million in sales worldwide.

 

[jarrod]

Well if you think GT4's going to put up the 10 million or close to it number then what's the argument about? I thought you were saying NFSU2, Burnout 3 ect. were going to cause the series to dip to 3 or so million in sales worldwide.

Nope, I expect GT4 to put up 10ish million eventually, but in the short term I'm not expecting it to blaze to that number soon. Increased competition will stall it in the short term though, it's inevitable. There's just too many racers and GT has the most market to lose (as it as the most market period), but GT4 will have sustained sales and huge budget sales other racers can only dream of...

 

[sonycowboy]

Nope, I expect GT4 to put up 10ish million eventually, but in the short term I'm not expecting it to blaze to that number soon. Increased competition will stall it in the short term though, it's inevitable. There's just too many racers and GT has the most market to lose (as it as the most market period), but GT4 will have sustained sales and huge budget sales other racers can only dream of...

I think you're number is probably pretty close and it seems as if you've backed away from your earlier estimate which was much much lower.

GT4 is facing serious competition from other Racers (Burnout 3, Forza, NFS, Midnight Club 3, Juiced, etc) as well as the other big name PS2 titles (GTA: SA, MGS3, Killzone, Jak 3,etc). Be that as it may, I still expect huge monster sales for a couple of reasons.

1) It will not have any competition in Japan. So you can expect those sales only to climb with a higher userbase and a lack of monster releases there.

2) The PS2 userbase will be 5 times larger (~15 million vs 75 million) than when it was originally released. If it can retain only 1/5 of the original attach rate, it will be able to match it's previous sales.

3) It's one of the top 5 PS exclusives and exclusives sell very well. (GTA - 24 million total, GT3 11 million total, MGS2 5+ million, FFX 5+ million, EyeToy 4 million, J&D - 6 million, R&C 3.5 million, etc, etc). Basically, I'm saying it has the pedigree and "license" to sell.

 

[BeOnEdge]

i predict US gt4 sales to be 1/2 of what ever japan does.

 

[jarrod]

I think you're number is probably pretty close and it seems as if you've backed away from your earlier estimate which was much much lower.

Er, care to remind me of my earlier estimate then? I haven't really changed my stance so far that I'm aware of?

2) The PS2 userbase will be 5 times larger (~15 million vs 75 million) than when it was originally released. If it can retain only 1/5 of the original attach rate, it will be able to match it's previous sales.

Again, I'm not sure if increased userbase a significant advantage though. Evidently it wasn't for GT2 at least.

3) It's one of the top 5 PS exclusives and exclusives sell very well. (GTA - 24 million total, GT3 11 million total, MGS2 5+ million, FFX 5+ million, EyeToy 4 million, J&D - 6 million, R&C 3.5 million, etc, etc).

Not to nitpick but the GTA series is both not exclusive to PS2 and hasn't sold 24 million units on PS2. And I think both MGS2 and FFX are well past 6 million each, though Jak being there would be a surprise imo. :/

Also, breaking down the actual numbers, it seems GT's strongest region is by far Europe (almost 2 to 1 against America and 3 to 1 against Japan). Looking at release dates, GT4 has about a month on the market in America and 1 day in Japan/Europe for 2004. 10 million-ish eventually (really 9 million and change) and it'll be lucky to hit 2 million this year...

 

[SolidSnakex]

i predict US gt4 sales to be 1/2 of what ever japan does.

So since only 1 GT has sold over 2 million in Japan, you don't even think GT4 will sell a million in the US? Yah that's definetly going to happen. Coming off a game that just sold 3+million, GT4 will now manage to not even sell a million in the US.

 

[Subitai]

my hope is, Microsoft will wait 9-10 more months until September 2006.

MS will p*ss off a lot of publishers if they don't make Dec. 2005.

 

[sonycowboy]

Not to nitpick but the GTA series is both not exclusive to PS2 and hasn't sold 24 million units on PS2.

It was exclusive when they were released and the GTA sales were only ~19 million on the PS2. 23 million units total sorry (including over 12.0 million units of Grand Theft Auto: Vice City and over 10.8 million units of Grand Theft Auto 3.)

 

[AniHawk]

Cough. Madness. Pass me whatever you're smoking.

Metroid Prime is a million seller in the states. REmake has sold 450,000, and RE0's at 400,000. M rated games don't really do so hot on the system. To top it off, Metroid is a Nintendo franchise. MP2E has a LOT more going for it than RE4 does.

 

[Subitai]

Metroid Prime is a million seller in the states. REmake has sold 450,000, and RE0's at 400,000. M rated games don't really do so hot on the system. To top it off, Metroid is a Nintendo franchise. MP2E has a LOT more going for it than RE4 does.

Yeah, I don't know what's so hard to understand about that. The other thing is it will be multiplayer where RE isn't. That will go over well with all the SSB:M and MK: DD owners.

 

[BeOnEdge]

So since only 1 GT has sold over 2 million in Japan, you don't even think GT4 will sell a million in the US? Yah that's definetly going to happen. Coming off a game that just sold 3+million, GT4 will now manage to not even sell a million in the US.

oops. i had always thought that japan>us sales when it came to GT.

 

[CrimsonSkies]

Anyone that thinks Halo 2 will not be the #2 game of the year in sales behind GTA: SA is in for a surprise later this year.

 

[Baron Aloha]

Anyone that thinks Halo 2 will not be the #2 game of the year in sales behind GTA: SA is in for a surprise later this year.

GTA and Halo 2 both have to beat Pokemon Fire Red/Leaf Green first. It's already sold over 2 million in Japan and it will probably have 2.5-3 million units sold in that region by the time Halo 2 and GTA are released. GTA might beat it, but Halo 2 won't.

 

[Gek54]

Did Sega GT online ever come out? If it did, did anyone care? I think alterdbeast may owe me a copy of GT4 for SGTO bombing.

 

[FriScho]

Xbox2 needs a Halo3 at launch or it will be a sitting duck

 

[inpHilltr8r]

From a relatively recent list of the top sellers this gen:

1 GTA:VC PS2 6 million

5 Halo XBX 3.2 million
26 Splinter Cell 1 XBX 1.5 million
41 Project Gotham 1.1 million

I don't think Halo 2's going to outsell GTA:SA, if the top 3 selling XBX games so far combined, can't outsell Vice City on the PS2.

 

[BeOnEdge]

Did Sega GT online ever come out? If it did, did anyone care? I think alterdbeast may owe me a copy of GT4 for SGTO bombing.

yah it did and it sucked. i could NEVER a game going. stupid gearheads would chat about cars and upgrades and trading cars more than racing. soooooooooo annoying. alterdbeast is gone though. i think he went to panama or somewhere in south america.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

I'd love the numbers on PGR2 and Amped 2. I don't know how many titles MS has on their plate to launch with (and how dependable Rare will be to get a title ready for launch) but I though the sales on their power/launch franchises greatly diminished on return. If that's what they can expect... then I'd say that they really don't have a great chance to beat both Sony and Nintendo

 

[Suikoguy]

From a relatively recent list of the top sellers this gen:

1 GTA:VC PS2 6 million

5 Halo XBX 3.2 million
26 Splinter Cell 1 XBX 1.5 million
41 Project Gotham 1.1 million

I don't think Halo 2's going to outsell GTA:SA, if the top 3 selling XBX games so far combined, can't outsell Vice City on the PS2.

I'd like to congradulate you on actually using some facts in an arguement!
This is much improvment in this forum