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[sonycowboy]

I'm not sure what to think about the Xbox 2 launching in 2005. I think it's pretty much a given based on the trickling of information we've gotten over the past 12 months. Not that M$ can't change course if they have good reason.

Some thoughts:
------------------------------------------------
1) I think it will seriously hurt the Xbox sales.
Why should M$ release any more big games for Xbox, when their focus will clearly be to get the absolute most number of adopters for Xbox 2 before the PS3 hits? This generation will be a war and M$ needs to have it's installed base as large as is humanly possible. Presumably all big 2005 releases would be moved over to Xbox 2 to insure a strong launch and post launch lineup.

2) How will publishers / developers play this?
Publishers traditionally have loved this point in the cycle where the installed base is solid and they can really milk the userbase for as much money as possible. But then you have developers who are always dying to get their hands on the latest tech to really create cutting edge graphics. I think publishers are going to have to make very deliberate decisions regarding development.

You've got: PS2, Xbox, GCN (I expect 3rd party to drop this the quickest), PSP, GBA, NDS, Xbox 2, PC. They've already promised significant resources to PSP and the DS. And the development of PS2/Xbox is where they'll make the lions share of revenue for the next ~2 years.

My guess is that they'll be developing only a few, "high quality" titles for XBox 2 and leave the "standard" releases to the PS2/Xbox. That could well give the Xbox 2 a nice "cachet" as the place to get unique AAA titles. And I expect Xbox 2 to get "as good, if not better than" PC ports given the XNA focus.

3) What will gamers do?
I expect a big launch with modest sales afterwards. I don't really think that gamers will be so quick to pony up money for another system so soon after getting a PS2 or XBox. In addition, I think there will be a natural tendency to wait to see what the PS3 brings to the table ala Dreamcast / PS2. Plus if the publisher keep their big name games on the PS2/Xbox, gamers may well put off the purchase of the next system until those big names make the move.

4) Get ready for the HYPE machine - BIG TIME
This will be one hell of a ride in 2005 to see Microsoft doing absolutely everything they can to convince gamers to not wait for the PS3 and how great the Xbox 2 is going to be. "You'll be getting graphics you've never even dreamed of"

Similarly, Sony will be saying look at all the great games on the PS2 (FFXII, GTA 4, etc) and trumpeting how much more powerful the PS3 will be and how gamers should wait.

I expect both to line up some pretty serious heavy hitter exclusives.

5) Can Sony use the extra time to make the PS3 substantially more powerful?
It's hard to know how on track the cell is. Is it in any danger of failing to meet expectations? Will an extra 18 months and the use of a completely new processor design give the PS3 a monster edge. I think M$ has the software tools to mitigate the differences somewhat (XNA / DirectX 10) where Sony may be designing this stuff on the fly. If Sony can trump the Xbox 2's power, M$ may well have an even shorter life span that the original Xbox.

 

[BeOnEdge]

i predict something will change tech wise next spring that will force MS to launch 2006. something that will enable MS to sell the x2 at a larger profit and make it more powerful at the same time without having to redesign the whole thing.

 

[king zell]

Dreamcast

 

[open_mouth_]

PS2-LIKE DOMINANCE

 

[Excelion]

I expect GAFers to be wrong again.

 

[Subitai]

I really don't think Sony can afford not to release PS3 in Japan at the same time next year. PAL and the US isn't a problem, but Japan is becoming GBA land right now.

Publishers are already committed to an Xbox2 launch and would be vexed if MS misses it. I'm sure the workmen publishers like EA and Activision will have versions of their popular properties. The key will be to get exclusive stuff again from Team Ninja, Id, Lucas Arts, Epic, and Ubi in addition to their 1st party titles. If they all sell well, compared to what they have on PS2, then there's going to be a lot of titles coming in the future.

As far as Gamers? I don't know. Looking around boards, this plan doesn't look like it is going to make any gamers switch and could hurt with current Xbox fans. However, all it takes is one good game that looks and plays so good, everyone has to check it out. MS doesn't have to sell to everyone. Just 1-2 million early adopters to get the hype going for the launch. And then the real problem comes. Daily sales have to be good following Christmas. That is going to be very hard if PS2 is $99 and PS3 gets confirmed for 06. MS has to have another half dozen eye catching titles that are comparable to what the hype mags are showing for PS3 before the next holiday and then have another amazing Christmas lineup. The good news is that is the easy part, at least compared to what developers will have to do with the cell. Sony is going to have a much harder time getting out games. The hard part is getting gamers to buy them instead of holding out.

As far as Sony using the extra time, I have no idea what they can do. The thing is that there isn't that much time because PS3 has to come out in Japan in 06 at the latest in if not next holiday and the leadership team is going to also have to manage PSP.

 

[sonycowboy]

I really don't think Sony can afford not to release PS3 in Japan at the same time next year. PAL and the US isn't a problem, but Japan is becoming GBA land right now.

LOL. That's the first time I've heard anybody say that. PS3 launch dependant on the GBA???
IMHO, Sony owns Japan and while they need to respect that region, the US/UK is where the Xbox 2 / PS3 battle will be waged.

 

[Subitai]

LOL. That's the first time I've heard anybody say that. PS3 launch dependant on the GBA???
IMHO, Sony owns Japan and while they need to respect that region, the US/UK is where the Xbox 2 / PS3 battle will be waged.

Yeah, Sony doesn't have any competition in Japan, but publishers are seeing their PS2 daily sales continually slow where GBA sales go up. PSP will change that, but Japan is saturated with home consoles right now.

 

[COCKLES]

Id got for Feb/March 2006. Head to toe with Sony.

Some form of Halo Lite at launch. Perhaps a Conker Reloaded version of the original using new engine or just a multiplayer Live game. Perfect Dark Zero. And at least one feature that's visably superior in specs to the PS3. Wether it's final memory or processor speed - because everyone loves comparision stats.

PS3 SUCKS!!!!! WE HAVE 512MB! THEY ONLY HAVE 256!!! BLAST PROCESSING!! MODE 7!!!

 

[FriScho]

MS should release the Xbox2 only 5 days before PS3 to steal their thunder. Not one year before or even more. My 2 cents.

 

[SolidSnakex]

MS should release the Xbox2 only 5 days before PS3 to steal their thunder. Not one year before or even more. My 2 cents.

Didn't Sega try to pull this trick too with a stealth Saturn launch? That worked really well. You don't "Steal" Sony's thunder. Just ask Sega about that. Sony managed to kill the DC just based on the hype of the PS2.

 

[Subitai]

Kind of off topic, but IBM is supposed to start manufacturing cells the end of this year or early next year. I'm not a big tech head, but can Sony use 6 - 18 months to make it faster than what we've already heard, or is it basically stuck where it's at when it comes out? If it isn't really going to get faster, I don't see why Sony isn't going to get release PS3 next year in at least Japan if they're going to be able to show it at E3 next year.

 

[FriScho]

Didn't Sega try to pull this trick too with a stealth Saturn launch? That worked really well. You don't "Steal" Sony's thunder. Just ask Sega about that. Sony managed to kill the DC just based on the hype of the PS2.

In fact it worked very well. Saturn reached 1 million sold units before PSX and Virtua Fighter 1 was selling very good. But Sega screwed up the whole marketing after that. Something MS won't happen. So yes, the basic idea would work VERY good. And BTW: Saturn was more expensive. They had to price drop it pretty soon. MS shouldn't be so stupid and make Xbox2 more expensive than PS3.

 

[GigaDrive]

Microsoft wants Xbox 2 to be the next Sega Genesis!

 

[gofreak]

Kind of off topic, but IBM is supposed to start manufacturing cells the end of this year or early next year. I'm not a big tech head, but can Sony use 6 - 18 months to make it faster than what we've already heard, or is it basically stuck where it's at when it comes out? If it isn't really going to get faster, I don't see why Sony isn't going to get release PS3 next year in at least Japan if they're going to be able to show it at E3 next year.

Of course it'll get faster over time. Cell is an architecture, like PowerPC or X86. As time passes and process improve, they'll be able to manufacturer higher clocked chips. It's not like they're making one type of chip, at one speed, and that's it. So, there could well be benefits of holding off till 2006 in terms of technology - they could pack a faster chip into PS3 in 2006 than they could in 2005.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

I say I'd expect big beads of japanese anime sweat on Allard's face when he has to face the stockbrokers and explain why they have to pricedrop the xbox2 to survive the console race.

its too early and it reeks of desperation. Who knows.. the xbox fanbase seems pretty rabid. But is it enough for them to cough out $400+ for a new console when their old one isn't even remotely dusty yet? This gen is just so launch happy. In the next 2 years; 5 new consoles. JESUS

 

[Joe]

it all depends on launch titles.

they need at least 20 launch titles with a new perfect dark, project gotham, and dead or alive leading the way. they need a full line of sports titles from football to tennis, and have all games and the system online right from launch then it could be a huge success.

but this could also be a double-edged sword because it could thin out their future releases (dreamcast). but if they can keep rolling out good games like they are doing this gen then they will be in a really good position.

 

[Goreomedy]

Feb/March 2006.

Well, at least Father Xbot has a lick of sense.

I'd add another few months, for a post-E3 launch, just when the kids get out of school. A 6 month head start on Sony would be the best course of action. They can still claim to be leading the way into the next gen, while avoiding the risks of a premature launch.

If they jumped the gun in fall of 2005, I think Sony would embarrass them with a mass-market priced, slickly redesigned PSTwo, that'll hold its own.

Summer of 2006 would give Microsoft impressive Early Adopter launch numbers, and then another spike that Christmas. And, yes, Software delays will be key to any launch date.

There are always delays.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I believe it's a very bad idea to go toe-to-toe with Sony. Even if XBOX 2 were 10000% more powerful than the PS3 and had an amazing and unprecedented launch lineup to compete, it wouldn't help because Sony's owns the majority of positive console mindshare. 6 months before isn't as bad, but you'd be in the middle of Sony's marketing blitz, thereby diluting your potency for individual attention. Launching one year prior to PS3 is safe enough to be outside of the vicious Sony marketing attack with the opportunity to stay outside of a potentially disastrous three-way fight with them and Nintendo.

If Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony all launch in the same year, someone's gonna get owned regardless of how they play their cards. It's best to stay out and draw attention to just yourself, while not being considered old-hat by being too early and too technologically old, as the DC unfortunately suffered in this way. It plays well into MS' hands by receiving the first support of next-gen software development that will have taken place regardless of their early entry. They have a year or so to build a substantial library, have the benefit of being the lead platform for development of multi-console titles, and greatly influence the next-gen expectations of the public. They wouldn't have these options so easily without risking an early launch. In this way, MS will undoubtedly garner themselves next-gen credibility assuming that they meet basic expectations of high-quality software and next-gen sheen.

It's going to be better this way. The 'normal', safe way is asking for the public to immediately dismiss one of the three in the following year. The North American market's the biggest one out there, but still favors two over one.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

also, if they launch late next year, what software on the current gen consoles will be it be going up against? A lot of the PS2 titles (say Sony ask Squaresoft to delay releasing FFXII till 2005 xmas) and also LOZ:ww2 will be out then and the graphics on these 3rd gen titles will be pretty nice; plus they'll be tried and tested sellers. Whether or not the xbox2 will have any pull will be very dependent on their launch titles going up against these titles. As for playing out their cards; in order to keep xbox 1 attractive all this year and next; they'll have to ensure that the games roll that they're on remains rolling.

From the news of IGN; hasn't MS already commited developers to the 2005 release, hence all their time/energy trying to get games ready? Delaying won't be great for relations, no? Additionally, how many of these developers want to piss Sony off?

 

[FriScho]

Xbox2 needs a Halo3 at launch - no Halo no Hype

 

[MightyHedgehog]

XBOX 2 needs Halo 3, I agree...but not until it's ready and the most effective and realistic time for its release would be Q4 '06, to help in combating the PS3 and Revolution. PD0 will do nicely for a launch title.

 

[human5892]

I honestly have no idea how a Fall 05 Xbox2 launch would play out. Both sides of the fence (IT'LL BOMB/IT'LL ROXOR!) make convincing arguments.

I do think that barring some kind of last-minute quick decision, Microsoft has all intentions of going through with a launch at that time.

 

[einhard]

It will be interesting to see if xbox can hang onto its fanbase if it isnt the most powerful console, no matter when it launches

 

[Prine]

Im pretty confident Perfect Dark Zero will be amazing. Perfect for a luanch title.

 

[FriScho]

Perfect Dark is no big name. Golden Eye 007 was a big name a while ago. Perfect Dark sold much less and 2006 only older gamers maybe remember that jerky N64 game. Halo on the other hand is a brand like Mario - it's very well known and can push hardware.

 

[JavyOO7]

It's a mistake, IMO. MS has done a wonderful job creating a solid userbase around the world, and it would tarnish that fact with the Box2 releasing so early.

Just wait until 2006. You obviously have a chance to do even better next time around, so just sit back and be patient.

Shoot, I'm pretty sure that Halo 2 is probably going to sell over 100K+ still after 2005 comes along.

 

[kaching]

Does it really matter how it plays out?

If this gen has shown us anything, its that devs and pubs don't seem particularly bothered to support 3 competing hardware manufacturers, even if 2 of the 3 can manage to offer only roughly a fifth of the market leader's install base. As long as the manufacturer continues to support their hardware and manages to sell to several million who continue to buy games, everyone ends up with a respectable library of software.

So MS would have to do significantly worse with the Xbox2 sales to drive interest away and I highly doubt that's happening. By the same token, it's practically inconceivable they'll be able to turn the tables on Nintendo and Sony so thoroughly as to drive either one away from the market.

Some marketshare will likely be swapped. Maybe we even see a console war as evenly matched as the SNES vs Genesis was. But, again, outside of fanboy dick waving fantasies, the reality of such a scenario will not involve MS, Nintendo or Sony exiting from the console business, none of them will be put out of business entirely and each of the next gen consoles will likely end up with another set of very respectable game libraries when all is said and done.

There are several wildcards here, but I think the most interesting one involves the new portables. With the DS and PSP being the first portable game systems to offer significant 3d support that are to be marketed to a mass audience, I think there's some potential for these new portables to siphon off some talent that has been traditionally focused on console/PC support. See Planet Moon for starters and I think there's the potential for more if DS and PSP can prove their sales merit. Where we've traditionally treated the GB platform as a separate world that has little affect on the console world, I'm not so sure we're going to have that luxury this time around. Could end up being more like a 5 way competition.

 

[Redbeard]

I don't think it will matter much in the long run if they launch early or wait. It may be beneficial if they use their headstart wisely and put out some killer games.

The Xbox 2 will have a lot going for it already. Live is already established and it will be online from day one; EA will be online from the beginning; it will no doubt have excellent support from third parties and XNA will likely insure a steady stream of top PC titles.

Will it eat into Xbox sales? I think MS is counting on it. The sooner they wean people off the Xbox the better off they'll be.

And as far as the lack of backward compatibility, I don't think MS is so stupid as to have no way of playing what are some of their biggest titles on the Xbox 2. While true bc may not be feasible, I imagine there may be certain big, Live-enabled titles that are specifically made to be forward compatible with the Xbox 2 (Halo 2, Conker, MA2, etc..). Allard said we'd be playing Halo 2 for ten years, I doubt he meant we'd be playing it on our Xboxes.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Maybe it's because I've not been really into portable gaming since the original GB time period, but I just can't see DS and PSP meaning all that much. Again, I don't think too highly of portables, anyway.

 

[sonycowboy]

^^^

Kaching,

I agree somewhat, but the point was more to try and detail some of the factors involved than try and declare a winner.

M$, Nintendo and Sony are here to stay. Anybody that expects them to pack up and go away are going to be sorely mistaken. There will be no DOA launch of a system. Publishers are much happier this generation than last because it is in their best interest to not be beholden to a hardware monopoly. They can play the hardware guys against each other and work out the best deals.

Sony does not expect to have a 65-75% market share this next time around. They will certainly drop well below that to the benefit of M$ and Nintendo. This market is going through a maturation and seems to be able to support all 3 by targeting their audience and because the market is so much larger than it was back in the days of Nintendo vs Sega or even Nintendo vs Sony.

 

[GigaDrive]

Xenon doesnt have to have Halo 3 at launch. better to promote some Japanese developed games at launch, like DOA4 and whatever Sega brings.