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I know how COMG work, indeed when we talked about Dark Souls i was one of the most optimist here, and i compared it with BloodBorne, which was a way better comparation.
The problem with COMG is that now is less relevant than one time, this is why games have better ratio.
Yokai Watch, indeed, is one of them. Final Day:
YW2 - 920 ratio (1430pt)
YWB - 960 ratio (723pt)
YW3 - 1430 ratio (435pt)
Yes, Yokai Watch 3 ratio was way better, but you see. Not THAT much better.
Honestly? I expected even more... like something close to 2000 ratio (like 1800/1900).
Now, problem is when you compare FF XV with Yokai Watch, look at FF XIII or FF XIII-2
FF XIII - 690 ratio
FF XIII-2 - 680 ratio
Now, you see how bad is usually FF ratio? Way worse than Yokai Watch. FF XV will have a better ratio than the others FF XV, yes, but it almost for sure won't have the same ratio of Yokai Watch 3, cause Yokai Watch ratio is way better on COMG, and we talk about a game released in the same year.
Final Fantasy XV has 199 points now. Let's say it will end at 500 points, and will have in the best scenario the same ratio of YW3 (which is almost impossible) that's mean a first week of 715,000 unit... even with a super optimist calculation like this, you barely have 700K. That's why you should NOT expect a miracle with COMG points.
Personally, i can see a ratio of 1000, which is far better than the others FF XV.
KillerMan91
Member
Well I guess I just have hard time to believe that series that for decades have opened over 1 million sales during first week in Japan would suddenly crash and burn to having 1/3 of the last mainline games opening. Yokai Watch is completely different as it's so new series so it's easier to see such a drop. Still believe personally though something like a million opening for XV. Sony and S-E will probably give it the most expensive marketing budget yet for PS4 title and there will be limited edition console and I could see another price cut to hit around then too (TGS is few weeks earlier and going by last year we could see price cut announced). Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 should bring also decent amount of JRPG audience to the platform before XV so maybe preorders are gonna see more late increase than XIII (XIII was available to preorder in comgnet forever before its launch)
Guess we will see then... but i can assure you that 1 million first week is impossible. :-/
KillerMan91
Member
Well I was already lurking here around 2009 when 1.5 million for XIII was deemed impossible so we shall see.. =P
Almost no chance imo.
PS3 was in beast mode after the slim version during the holidays, and doesn't matter what's happen FF XIII will sell A LOT better than FF XV.
Nah. That'd be a huge leap. I'd expect more like 50-60k.
That time will be when the PS3 will start to break away from the PS4 in terms of LTDs aligned.
Comgnet preorders for XIII only really took off once the release date was revealed though, while XV preorders have been slow since its release date announcement.
Time will tell I guess. If the game turns out good, I'm sure that western sales will make up for Japan, but I'd hate to see the franchise become irrelevant in its home country.
http://www.famitsu.com/news/201608/02112364.html
Skyrim remaster is releasing on Japan on November 10th.
Original game sold around 300k on PS3 and 360, really interested on how this one does given how Fallout 4 did last year and how GTAV is selling.
Skyrim remaster is releasing on Japan on November 10th.
Original game sold around 300k on PS3 and 360, really interested on how this one does given how Fallout 4 did last year and how GTAV is selling.
not from the demo they show. It's easy to see why it's not getting the hype cause the game doesn't look very fun from what has been shown
I'm so worried about the hype for DQXI and Pokemon.
MHP 5th will also be multiplatform too!
People forgot that DQ7 was released on PS1 after PS2 was already on the market. It went on to become the best selling DQ game ever (until DQ9 sold more later).
If this happens, it would be below already lower expectation of almost everyone here and a disaster.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
FFXV LTD < 1 million ..... lads come on
Clearly you don't know how Comgnet works.
Though it is fair to say that as time pass we should still lower our expectations unless something special make us think the opposite
Thought they were arguing fw?
Nope. Lifetime. Though this is my opinion as well, could happen digital+retail. Surely it will barely break that, no way it sells much over that.
What will you do if FF XV sells under 1 million?
DR2K
Banned
I'd say half that. This is a very unappealing Final Fantasy for Japanese tastes.
Has any game on PS4 hit a million?
Napalm_Frank
Member
I hope Persona 5 does exceptionally well to balance out the FF drop. I'm most interested in seeing how KH3 does when it comes to big SE IPs, I expect Dragon Quest XI to be good just because of the brand name.
On the other hand KH series has been horribly managed in many ways, the latest ''mainline'' game on the 3DS didn't do too well ect. But at the same time KH3 has a chance to implement some of the biggest Disney IPs they have had for a long time. A lot will depend on the marketing. I expect it to be the worst selling of the numbered titles but maybe it'll surprise me.
On the other hand KH series has been horribly managed in many ways, the latest ''mainline'' game on the 3DS didn't do too well ect. But at the same time KH3 has a chance to implement some of the biggest Disney IPs they have had for a long time. A lot will depend on the marketing. I expect it to be the worst selling of the numbered titles but maybe it'll surprise me.
Capcom's newest game for the mobile market is essentially Love Plus but with a dude: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPEC88hl19Y
Otome games have had an a pretty reasonable performance on mobile so I'm curious to see how it does.
Otome games have had an a pretty reasonable performance on mobile so I'm curious to see how it does.
FreedomFighter
Member
Super Famicom 3DS is shipping now. Perhaps 3DS will have a slight boost in the coming weeks but I doubt these will be tracked anyways being mail ordered an all. So they probably counted in Nintendo's previous quarter as well.
I don't bite on specialty hardware designs but I really like this and would consider picking it up if it came to the US.
I don't bite on specialty hardware designs but I really like this and would consider picking it up if it came to the US.
Worth posting though, since people will finally get their orders. Wish I could've gotten one.
theprodigy
Member
you're kidding right, you can't actually think FFXV will do 500k LTD
Yeah it won't get near KH2's sales in Japan (1.1mil LTD) and probably won't pass KH1's 800k but I think it will at least get to around 650-700k maybe significantly less. Though it's too early to guess with confidence since a lot could change for PS4's userbase (with the releases of big games) in the time until KH3 comes out which I've been guessing is towards the end of 2017 or (please no) early 2018, and it depends on if most of Disney's biggest IPs are represented.
Some posters here have very high expectation on KH3... and FFVIIr. If FFXV only sells around 1 mil on PS4, those 2 games will fare much worse.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Neo and Sony announces and releases it in the span of a few weeks this month or September. Andrew House was talking about/admiring the way Apple do things around E3 IIRC so I wouldn't be surprised if that happened. And then of course there would be a price drop to the standard PS4.
Great moves by Capcom there.^_^ Otome games market on mobile is quite stable earner there. I had seen many of those genre stays strong on App Annie and Qoo.^_^
Nah, I'm pretty sure that it'll sell more tan Splatoon, right? ;D Just like Persona 5 brbrbrb
Regarding the PS4 news, could it be an Slim model? Was it rumoured not so long ago?
So price drop announced in August, and then takes effect in September? That would explain why so many "high-profile" releases in September.
Edit: wait, don't they always have a press conference in early September?
Also, nothing on this week's data?
Ff7r will do more than ffxv.
test_account
XP-39C²
Final Fantasy 7 Remake are three games.
The first one itself will sell more than ffxv imo
test_account
XP-39C²
Hard to say. Depends on how they manage the games. I'm under the impression that they're not just 3 games that are split into 3 parts from FF7. Seems like there would be much new content as well.
One for each disc?
The only example of a remake outselling a new entry is Ocarina of Time vs Skyward Sword but they were obviously released under different circumstances(3DS vs Wii and requiring Motionplus).
I'd be surprised if a remake can outsell a new entry on the same platform under similar circumstances.
I'd be surprised if a remake can outsell a new entry on the same platform under similar circumstances.
I agree. And for what it's worth on Square Enix's Japanese YouTube channel the FFVIIR gameplay trailer from PSX has 1.5 million more views than FFXV's Uncovered trailer (and 1.4 million more than the trailer from 3 years ago which is the most viewed Japanese FFXV trailer).
test_account
XP-39C²
I dont think that they will do it like that. Will seem kinda "anti-climax" (or what i shall say) to cut the game off one third of the way in and then maybe wait a year or two for the next part, then wait another year or two for the last part. I think that the games will have some sort of ending for each game.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Maybe Slim or XV bundle? I don't think Neo will do all that good in Japan. It's mostly for those big AAA games that are not really Japan forte.
It's worth nothing.
I don't think FFXV will do a million unless it's heavily discounted. I think it's opening is going to be 500-650k at best and it will struggle reaching a million unless it's bundled or discounted. It's pretty obvious that the game wasn't made with the Japanese market in mind. I'm sure it will be depressing for SE but that's the reality of the Japanese market right now and XV isn't going to change that.
Ok, thanks.
Nah, TGS is in late September. Talking of a press conference in early September (around September 1st), separate from TGS.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Hmm, nothing like that rings a bell.
I disagree, at least with this specific case. It means there is significantly more attention being given to this game by the public (before each game's marketing campaigns ramp up before release).
Jarod McChicken
Member
Sony TGS conference was September 1st in 2014 and September 15th in 2015, it depends
Hmmm, right, for some reason I thought it was one week later (around the 20th). Must be confusing that one with another game show.
Oh well.
One of the early september (pre-TGS) press conferences I was thinking about:
http://www.siliconera.com/2014/08/19/sony-host-press-conference-playstation-september-1st/
Edit: ninja'ed by a green-haired psychopath, ha ha.
It means there was more views for the only released trailer of FFVII-R than for any other FFXV/VS XIII videos which has dozen of uploaded videos across a decade.
The views are worldwide, E3 often has a bigger effect on the viewcount for a reveal, people could see the video multiple times etc.
I mean even Last Guardian got 5M views and this game will bomb, hard, so we might as well use Famitsu Most Wanted once again while we're at it.