That's not what I meant, BC with current-gen is a given no doubts, what I meant is that MS will have a tough time convincing all those 100MLN people to abandon their hundreds-thousands $$ worth libraries and switch the camp.
It wasn't much of an an issue back in the days because in order to play let's say PS2 games you had to keep the PS2 with you (excluding the early PS3 models), so nothing was stopping you from buying X360 instead of PS3. But now, I really don't see anyone wanting to repurchase Fortnite or Minecraft again just to continue playing it. Countless hours in GTA Online, gone. CoD, BF, Destiny etc. all gone. Assasin's Creed collections, worthless.
I could go on and on with the examples, but I think you get the idea, people invested not only huge amount of money but also huge amount of time into current-gen titles (that's exactly what GAAS are meant for), and now they will be given the opportunity to keep all of it intact if they simply choose PS5 as then next-gen system, while MS at least of of now has literally nothing to offer to counter that. Because why would anyone heavily attached to all the 3rd party titles wanted to get XBX and lose everything, and would need to either buy everything they want to keep/get back to again, or have to keep the PS4. Because people who really want to play Halo/Gears/Forza are already there on the Xbox, and they will most likely stay in that ecosystem for the exact same reason.
Actually as i think of it now, BC might single-handedly make the upcoming generation the least exciting, because the vast majority of people will just migrate on the newer version of the system they already own. It's like switching from PC to Mac - why would you want to lose all your library when you can just upgrade your current PC or get a new one, and keep everything you got?
It actually won't be nearly that hard. For starters, only a small fraction of all PS4 owners have actually invested multi-hundreds to thousands-worth into their software library. There's also the fact that a lot of titles in libraries these days come as perks with subscription services, meaning the user didn't actually "pay" for them the usual way, so those games weren't really a financial investment on their part.
The
majority of PS4 owners are casuals who generally pick consoles up for a very small selection of mega-games, usually 3rd-party, and generally franchise games. So stuff like Madden, NBA 2K, FIFA, and these days games like Fortnite and GTA5, Destiny, Minecraft etc. are what the majority of PS4 owners (especially those who buy their systems around Black Friday and the Christmas holidays) buy the system for. They might also happen to buy one that's bundled with a 1st-party exclusive, or may happen to pick up a few other games down the line, but for those types of mass-mainstream purchasers those amounts are nothing significant.
I mean you can look at the typical sales range of more core-orientated games to tell what the market size on systems like PS4 are like for the hardcore/core gamer you're describing. I'd probably peg it around 15 -20 or so million, because a lot of those people buy a lot of the same games. The mega-hyped releases like FFVII Remake, RE2 Remake, GOW4, Tekken 7, SFV, Horizon etc. I'm not saying the hardcore/core are the
only ones who buy those games: again there are the more casual and mainstream types who might happen to pick the games up, or get them conveniently in bundles or as freebies with their subscriptions. But the casuals and mainstream aren't buying PS4s
specifically for those types of games! And the same thing applies with Xbox: nowhere near all those 40+ million owners purchased one for Halo, or TitanFall, or Sunset Overdrive etc.
Also, with a lot of the franchise games the majority of system owners purchase, they really don't tend to play the older installments when the newer ones come out. This is something they do with sports games
especially! So to them, they wouldn't be losing much of anything since they have no attachment to the previous, older versions. For other games like Fortnite and Minecraft, IIRC progress, save data, DLCs etc. in those games are
platform-agnostic. This means you can easily transfer data (and even in-game currency earned in-game like with Fortnite) from one device to another. Most of these games do this with universal game accounts and let the players merge accounts between two or more different devices, that way they don't have to redo or re-purchase everything when going from one account to the next, or one platform to the next, either.
GAAS does not
inherently mean the software is tied to any given fixed console or platform. Quite the opposite, actually. It's meant to allow players to be freed from being locked down to a given platform, so that they can have a continuous experience regardless of what device they're accessing the game from. So it would be counter-intuitive if these big GAAS titles locked content earned and purchased on one device to simply that device (it would also hurt active engagement in that game's ecosystem by the end-user). I can see exclusive DLC made for a given platform staying tied to it in terms of access, but this never accounts for any significant portion of DLC content in a games, just a few skins or such, and that's about it.
So essentially, I think the only people who fall into the categorization of potential next-gen console purchasers that have a significant financial and social investment into an ecosystem (and would primarily use that as one of their primary factors in picking a console) are the hardcore early-adopters, the ones who tend to buy systems within the first year or two. And even among them, that factor isn't too high on their list, because some of them value other things well over it such as power, or software library. For everyone else, such a reasoning is basically assuming a sunk cost fallacy, but the
actual people they assume it upon
don't see it the same way. They buy PS and Xbox because of the major, newest AAA mainstream 3rd-party games like GTA6, or the franchise sports games like Madden/FIFA/NBA 2k, or the big GAAS titles like Fortnite, Minecraft etc. And they don't tend to spend much financially outside of those titles, those titles either being largely platform-agnostic in how data can be accessed/transferred, or annual games where the previous release is immediately rendered outdated once the updated version drops. So even if they
DID drop a lot of cash into the previous version, it
doesn't matter because they won't touch it again, and they can probably transfer save data and DLC from the older version to the new one anyway (I'm assuming).
I think the bigger issue with people switching platforms next gen has nothing to do with financial investments into game libraries, but
social connections made on a given ecosystem. Unless/until cross-platform chat and messaging (and cross-platform sharing of games and game data/DLC with 3rd-party platform-agnostic games) becomes a standard, PS people are still mostly confined to their PS friends for best means of communication on that platform, and the same goes with Xbox people on theirs.
THAT is what's going to likely matter more in terms of affecting how many people might consider jumping between platforms, but I can actually see this benefiting both systems rather than hurting one. I.e, if one platform (say PlayStation) is the one a more casual/mainstream player has a social network investment in, but the other platform (say, Xbox) has a 1st-party game or two they want to play that, for them, is easiest to do on the Xbox platform (because let's be honest, casuals and mainstream gamers aren't typically the ones with thousand-dollar + rigs and super high-end laptops capable of playing next-gen games at console-quality settings, let alone higher ones), then they might pick up a new Xbox as well, and probably play on that system, too, without abandoning their friends on PlayStation.
Most gamers, whether hardcore, core, or casual/mainstream...they honestly aren't AS tied to brand loyalty or a given platform ecosystem just for the sake of it. Hardcore will go where the best mix of power/games/services/price is at, even if it means a lot of them double-up on both system. The casuals and mass market will eventually go where the hardcore/core are at, and since they jump in a lot later, they get the systems at heavily reduced cost and can therefore have more leniency to double-up if they so choose. IMO this is what makes MS's approach pretty interesting, because they really
do seem to understand that you get people in through the ecosystem, but that ecosystem doesn't need to be tethered down by a
singular device. And that means a lot of the social communication aspects of gaming that we know to be pretty platform-dependent for now, they're going to have to make platform-agnostic out of necessity. And as I was just saying before, it's the
social investment that's particularly valuable to the end user, just look at social network platforms like Twitch, Facebook, Twitter etc. for proof of this. If Microsoft can get gamers invested into their ecosystem socially ahead of competitors, it becomes much more difficult for that person to consider an alternative ecosystem.
Sony understands this, too, which is why I keep telling some of the diehards who keep insisting it being "dumb" what MS is doing, they might as well get ready to say that about Sony in a year from now, too. Do you
honestly think Sony would put themselves at a disadvantage that could completely cripple their PlayStation brand in the years ahead, by letting competitors saturate their ecosystem across multiple devices while they sit back and do
nothing on that front? Yes exclusives do matter (especially for Nintendo) and can have a strong effect on us if they're of quality, but here's the thing:
we might put exclusives on that type of pedestal but the
vast majority of gamers as a whole absolutely do
not.
That isn't the say exclusives don't like exclusives or don't care about them, but exclusives do not shape the purchasing timing or habits of the mainstream/casual gamers that make up the majority of console purchasers. And keep in mind that some exclusives between the likes of Sony and Microsoft, actually reach whatever numbers they do via being bundled into discounted SKUs aimed at holiday shoppers, but those shoppers aren't necessarily buying the systems for the bundled games!
Lastly I will say this: I do think an underlying reason a lot of people vehemently want Sony to not focus on these emerging areas is because they fear Sony will leave behind their bread-and-butter in doing so. But in reality, it's not an either/or game. It IS possible to do both; MS seems very intent on doing so (they've been investing in a lot more 1st party content the past few years) and if they can do it, Sony can as well (partnering with MS to use Azure servers, for example). A lot of great things can come from this approach and it's a bit shortsighted and irrational to hope it fails for no good reason, though I can at least
understand what might be causing people to think that way.
You forget that Microsoft owns Github and that Microsoft is known for it's Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt tactics.
That said, everybody with a working brain cell in his skull would know that Sony will not be using a GCN based GPU in the new PS5.
That said, did you know that Microsoft is desperate because Sony sold over 2.5 times more consoles for the current generation? It also seems that Microsoft shareholders are not happy about this. I could very well imagine once Sony releases more details about it's console (>13 TF most probably) XBox will be done.
I guess I should find out what media outlets Sony has investments in so I can irrationally fearmonger about them utilizing those for propaganda even if that's legally punishable by law
