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538: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning

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Y

yanipheonu

Member
So it seems like Clinton will probably win, it's just a matter of how big the win will be.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ection-can-end-and-3-involve-clinton-winning/

The charts below — which are based on 20,000 simulations from our model as of Friday afternoon2 — attempt to explain this by laying out four broad scenarios:

A Trump win, including cases where he loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.
A narrow Clinton win, wherein she wins the Electoral College, but wins the popular vote by 3 percentage points or less. (Or wins the Electoral College and loses the popular vote.)
A Clinton win in the “Obama zone,” wherein she wins the popular vote by 4 to 7 percentage points — the margins by which President Obama won the elections in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Clinton is all but certain to win the Electoral College if she wins the popular vote by this amount.
Finally, a Clinton blowout, wherein she wins the popular vote by 8 points or more, which would almost certainly also yield a dominant performance in the Electoral College.
Click to expand...

silver-electionupdate-1021-11.png


As usual, it best to point out Trump still holds a small chance to win. If you care, vote.
 
K

kirblar

Member
I highly recommend going w/ Sam Wang for analysis instead- http://election.princeton.edu/ Having to monetize his site (and get his contract renewed by ESPN) has led to Nate warping his behavior in the process, and it hasn't been pretty.

This election's all but over. The question isn't whether or not Clinton wins, it's how big the margin is and whether or not Dems can get one or both houses of congress in the process. Pretending Trump actually has a chance is chicken-little territory indulging liberal bad habits/thought processes.
 
D

Deleted member 10571

Unconfirmed Member
So you're telling me there's a chance
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
kirblar said:
I highly recommend going w/ Sam Wang for analysis instead- http://election.princeton.edu/ Having to monetize his site (and get his contract renewed by ESPN) has led to Nate warping his behavior in the process, and it hasn't been pretty.

This election's all but over. The question isn't whether or not Clinton wins, it's how big the margin is and whether or not Dems can get one or both houses of congress in the process. Pretending Trump actually has a chance is chicken-little territory indulging liberal bad habits/thought processes.
Click to expand...
.

Silver has lost his luster this election cycle.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
kirblar said:
I highly recommend going w/ Sam Wang for analysis instead- http://election.princeton.edu/ Having to monetize his site (and get his contract renewed by ESPN) has led to Nate warping his behavior in the process, and it hasn't been pretty.

This election's all but over. The question isn't whether or not Clinton wins, it's how big the margin is and whether or not Dems can get one or both houses of congress in the process. Pretending Trump actually has a chance is chicken-little territory indulging liberal bad habits/thought processes.
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Lol wut?

Clinton has a very good chance of winning but pretending it's over reeks of hubris. Lots of people still have to, you know, vote.

And if you read the article, it's pretty clear that Nate Silver doesn't really believe Trump will win either. His forecast just accounts for a wide range of error due to all the uncertain voters still in the polls. Because obviously uncertainty goes both ways.
 
K

kirblar

Member
grandjedi6 said:
Lol wut?

Clinton has a very good chance of winning but pretending it's over reeks of hubris. Lots of people still have to, you know, vote.

And if you read the article, it's pretty clear that Nate Silver doesn't really believe Trump will win either. His forecast just accounts for a wide range of error due to all the uncertain voters still in the polls. Because obviously uncertainty goes both ways.
Click to expand...
It's not hubris, it's that the polls are showing Clinton with massive leads, a virtual EC lock before you get to swing states, a massive collapse in Trump's numbers among lockstep GOP voters, and the knowledge that Trump's campaign has absolutely no GOTV operation to try and make up for the gaps we're seeing everywhere else.
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
grandjedi6 said:
Lol wut?

Clinton has a very good chance of winning but pretending it's over reeks of hubris. Lots of people still have to, you know, vote.

And if you read the article, it's pretty clear that Nate Silver doesn't really believe Trump will win either. His forecast just accounts for a wide range of error due to all the uncertain voters still in the polls. Because obviously uncertainty goes both ways.
Click to expand...
The cake is baked. It's over.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Jesus Christ, go with Sam Wang and stop following this fucking troll. Nate Silver 2016 is fucking trash who thinks you are dumb enough to give him and ESPN clicks.
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
kirblar said:
It's not hubris, it's that the polls are showing Clinton with massive leads, a virtual EC lock before you get to swing states, a massive collapse in Trump's numbers among lockstep GOP voters, and the knowledge that Trump's campaign has absolutely no GOTV operation to try and make up for the gaps we're seeing everywhere else.
Click to expand...

Yup. So sick of bedwetting and pretending that we should still be terrified of Trump being elected. He's toast.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
The rational side of me says she scores an 8 point victory (Obama 2012 + AZ, NC and NE-2)

However my gut feeling is that most left-leaning third party voters have a come to Jesus moment and pull for Hillary while the right-leaning third party voters stick with Johnson/McMuffin or stay home, producing a wide double digit victory.

I want Texas and I want the House.
 
R

riotous

Banned
I still enjoy reading 538; some of you guys sound like SIlver beat you up for your lunch money every day at school.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
That is one hell of a click-bait article with nothing resembling interesting facts or analysis. It's a doozy even for 2016 Nate Silver.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
riotous said:
I still enjoy reading 538; some of you guys sound like SIlver beat you up for your lunch money every day at school.
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Yeah, the animosity gets absurd at times, especially on PoliGAF where he's referred to as 'Bad Nate'.

I look at both 538 and Sam Wang because I think each offers some valuable insight. I don't think there's one perfect approach to forecasting. Sam Wang is probably the better of the two but I like 538's transparency and presentation. I don't buy into everything they say and they do post some clickbait articles going overboard with their What If? articles.
Zukkoyaki said:
That is one hell of a click-bait article with nothing resembling interesting facts or analysis. It's a doozy even for 2016 Nate Silver.
Click to expand...
This isn't clickbait: the article on the scenario McMullin wins the presidency was clickbait.
 
P

Phrozenflame500

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Yeah, the animosity gets absurd at times, especially on PoliGAF where he's referred to as 'Bad Nate'.
Click to expand...

I love how Nate's criticized by the hard left here for being too bullish on Trump while being simultaneously despised by the right for having Clinton up at all. I'm guessing it's cause he's been getting a fair bit more attention lately then most other aggregators, and having a website that doesn't look like ass.

Anyways IIRC even Nate said the 13% for Trump was more accounting for uncertainty and that baring an earth-shattering event Clinton's got this.
 
W

wildfire

Banned
kirblar said:
I highly recommend going w/ Sam Wang for analysis instead- http://election.princeton.edu/ Having to monetize his site (and get his contract renewed by ESPN) has led to Nate warping his behavior in the process, and it hasn't been pretty.

This election's all but over. The question isn't whether or not Clinton wins, it's how big the margin is and whether or not Dems can get one or both houses of congress in the process. Pretending Trump actually has a chance is chicken-little territory indulging liberal bad habits/thought processes.
Click to expand...

There's no such thing as absolute certainty. As much as I agree with your last line it's not a good reason to dismiss 538 methods.
 
Y

yanipheonu

Member
Eh. I worry an appeal to some sort of "statistical purity" may miss the mark.

While there surely are awful articles churned out by them, another outcome is that there are just better written articles than the Princeton site on 538.

The flipside of Sam Wang is an awfully designed website and articles that are more for statisticians than general reading. This isn't bad mind you, just different audiences.

When they get it right, I prefer 538's writing style. But as with, well, every publication ever, you gotta be critical.

This particular article is one of the better ones, using their solid model to look at possible outcomes in an easy to understand way.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Expecting at the very minimum a 6-7% win if all stays completely stable.
I'm waiting to see how GOP women vote in reliably red states, there's already a number of articles and pollsters tweeting about GOP women saying they'll vote Clinton at the booth over their husbands voting Trump and it's gonna be something to see once we're done.
 
4

4Tran

Member
It looks like 538 is being conservative with their numbers. Turnout should be a good 2-3% in favor of Clinton so she should have a decent cushion to work with. I'd expect the polls to tighten up again as we get closer to the election, and then Clinton should outperform her Election Day polling numbers by a bit. It should be a comfortable victory - probably larger than either of Obama's victories.

And really, this only makes sense. While Trump is able to fire up the Republican base, he's unable to reach much beyond that, and he's also relying on a lot of marginal voters who hate his guts to vote for him. It's not a winning formula, and his actions have done nothing to mitigate his problems.
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
I think the animosity toward 538 betrays an insecurity some people have. They seem to like to say the election is definitely over (and I would agree to a point, it isn't close right now) but anytime someone says anything other than "a Trump win is impossible" they have a tantrum.
 
A

Ambient80

Member
Hasn't 538's model been pretty accurate all year? Yes, even in the R primaries? I read their election updates, and check the "Chances to Win" graph once or twice a day. I feel like everyone's complaints basically amount to "CORPORATE SELLOUT!!!!" even though the model, which is what put them on the map, is still extremely accurate.
 
K

kirblar

Member
KHarvey16 said:
I think the animosity toward 538 betrays an insecurity some people have. They seem to like to say the election is definitely over (and I would agree to a point, it isn't close right now) but anytime someone says anything other than "a Trump win is impossible" they have a tantrum.
Click to expand...
My animosity's towards the indulgent clickbait. :) If the polls were closer, it'd be one thing, but this is a blowout, and we've never seen someone make this kind of turnaround.

Brexit's comparable to Bush/Gore or Bush/Kerry, both of which were very close and virtually impossible to call prior to the election.
 
A

anaron

Member
KHarvey16 said:
I think the animosity toward 538 betrays an insecurity some people have. They seem to like to say the election is definitely over (and I would agree to a point, it isn't close right now) but anytime someone says anything other than "a Trump win is impossible" they have a tantrum.
Click to expand...
Yep. It's really not a good look.
 
W

Wafflecakes

Member
Yeah, the hate hard-on that some in Poligaf have developed for Nate is pretty sad.

Even the McMullin article, while definitely posted for the clicks, contained valid information for the path that the guy theoretically has to the Presidency. Nate never said it was probable, just possible.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
sunshine and gasoline said:
Hoping for a spectacular blowout.
Click to expand...

Me too.

that would imo be the better chance of the country healing, as it might be sending back the racists (which are a part of, not all of, the Trump Base) in their hole hopefully.

A blowout would also have the best chance at the Dems retaking the Senate and a (tiny tiny) chance at the House to allow for a non-gridlocked presidency, at least for 2 years.
 
Y

yanipheonu

Member
There is an interesting notion that, if there is a blowout, rather than Trump's alt right rising, you could see a big liberal uprising as a reaction. A more moderate America reacting to the worst of the Republicans.
 
Escape Goat

Escape Goat

Member
Its funny that conservatives blame the 2008 election on McCain not being conservative enough. Then Romney was just a squish! Now Trump is right wing fascist. Somehow we have to loop back around to communism right?
 
JordanN

JordanN

Banned
Hillary will probably win, just based on the fact Trump has zero minority support. But the victory will be very narrow. Both candidates are hated this election.

I think an Obama style win this election could only happen if Sanders had won, or any other democrat who wasn't plagued with "likable" issues.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Escape Goat said:
Its funny that conservatives blame the 2008 election on McCain not being conservative enough. Then Romney was just a squish! Now Trump is right wing fascist. Somehow we have to loop back around to communism right?
Click to expand...
Basically happened in the UK on the left. This is what a death spiral looks like.
 
C

CDX

Member
sunshine and gasoline said:
Hoping for a spectacular blowout.
Click to expand...

I hope so too.

I hope Trump has a huge implosion sometime before the election, that causes even more of his support to drop or for them to just stay home.

That's the best chance for the Democrats to take control of both the Senate, and the House, which has always seemed like such an impossibility for 2016.
 
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