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[Tabris]

So sure you have a point if you ignore reality.

How does any of the points you make change the fact that Russia is the 14th largest economy and 4th largest military spender in the world - thus not as large of a threat internationally to NATO or the US as made out to be.

France, UK, and Germany all individually have enough to match Russia in military spending and output. WW3 would be over quick conventionally and it's only the nuclear deterrent that would keep it from occurring in the first place.

You'll have years and years of proxy wars or minor aggressions over economic interests, but that's been the same for decades and just recently re-escalated, but still minor in the large scheme of things.

Russia is simply not powerful or rich enough to initiate a world war.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

How does any of the points you make change the fact that Russia is the 14th largest economy and 4th largest military spender in the world - thus not as large of a threat internationally to NATO or the US as made out to be.

France, UK, and Germany all individually have enough to match Russia in military spending and output. WW3 would be over quick conventionally and it's only the nuclear deterrent that would keep it from occurring in the first place.

You'll have years and years of proxy wars or minor aggressions over economic interests, but that's been the same for decades and just recently re-escalated, but still minor in the large scheme of things.

Russia is simply not powerful or rich enough to initiate a world war.

This was your point:

I mean get why the propaganda was there due to the whole communism vs capitalism struggle of the 50s to 70s mainly started by Stalin's hope to conquer the world through his brand of communism. There was a brief moment the world was susceptible with Europe and Asia devastated after WW2.

But that time ended. The US foreign policy and US citizen psyche has never changed.

I know Russia is the king of bluster, but here's the facts of modern Russia.

Again your point was that somehow the US was overstating Russia's capacity or never changed their policy to Russia. When it isn't, they are a dangerous and increasingly irrational actor. As far as GDP and local economy not supporting a hypothetical war is irrelevant. Putin has near absolute power is demonstrating even now that economics be damned he can still do what he wants.

Russia also has much better force projection and frankly a more competent military than any European power alone (see Lybia). The other part is that as a more irrational power with the 2nd largest nuclear stockpiles there is no conventional war that Russia will lose.

You are basically claiming this is another ebb and flow in the Cold War, which it isn't. Again this is a really asinine point you are trying to pull for whatever reason.

 

[Giganteus]

You may have a point if you ignore:

1. Reconciliation in 90's after the fall of the soviet union. Policy was geared more to nuclear disarmament and diplomatic ties with Russia. That was when things like the ISS were started with including Russia as a major party. The start of the Obama admin was when the new START treaty was ratified.

2. Russian involvement in things like Georgia, annexing Ukraine, coming to the aid of the most brutal party in Syria.

3. Putin consolidating power over the last decade making it a defacto authoritarian regime.

4. Nuclear sabre rattling by Putin over the last few years.

5. Tail diving economy due to oil and rumored monetary reserves starting to dry up.


So sure you have a point if you ignore reality.

Some of your points prove his/hers and at the least don't do anything to disprove it, then there's what you said at the bottom, which makes it extra weird.

The other part is that as a more irrational power with the 2nd largest nuclear stockpiles there is no conventional war that Russia will lose

What..

Edit: I think you're misreading what he's saying.

 

[AaronB]

No one wants a wold war. There's too much to lose. The nations are too economically interconnected. The leaders would have to be insane to let it happen.

....are all things that people were saying before World War I. It took a few rather extraordinary coincidences on top of the way the stage was set, and yet the war happened.

Even with full-on Mutually Assured Destruction during the Cold War, we came close to nuclear war several times.

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out the likelihood of war with Russia. There are many theaters and dimensions for something to go wrong (anything from both sides trying to control the Ukraine to Cyber-warfare). One nation does something, the other overreacts, and anything could happen. Hillary is a warmonger and Trump is a wildcard. I would be thrilled if we somehow got through the next administration without a new war breaking out.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Russia is also on a demographic death spiral. Young Russian men are dying at an alarming rate, or leaving Russia.

 

[cryptosporidium]

I've studied the shit out of the Syrian/Iraq/Yemenese civil wars, also majoring in political sciences/economics at uni if that gives me any authority.

Short answer:

Spoiler

No

 

[Unknown Soldier]

If anyone actually cared about Syria, the civil war would be over already.

No one cares. The US, the European Union, Russia, they all drop bombs and wring their hands and look concerned. And when a refugee crisis occurs they close their borders, and when a cease fire breaks down they point fingers at each other.

The saddest thing about Syria is that it illustrates in graphic detail just how little the developed nations actually care about nations outside their own spheres. And no, they don't care enough to start a war with each other over Syria.

 

[Grug]

There may not be another WW2 but there sure as shit may be another WW1.

Militarisation, imperialism, nationalism, ethnic/religious tension... yeah none of these things are a factor right now.... oh wait :|

But yeah, Syria isn't going to be the major catalyst. The US/Russia/China/Korea on the other hand...

An Islamic bloc in Africa/Middle East might rise to fill a vacuum that is created as a result, but it isn't likely to be an instigating factor.

 

[Pomerlaw]

Why would they need any? They possess the second must powerful conventional military force in the world and enough nukes to end civilisation.

Even if I find the idea of WW3 scary, I don't think the current Russian arsenal can end civilization. Probably in the United States yes, but they have much less nukes now and those are not powerful enough to bring the so called nuclear winter.

 

[RoyaleDuke]

It will happen, but not just because of Syria and the MIddle East.

The situation we have on a world wide scale is more similar to World War I.

Which is what scares me.

 

[Obliterator]

As long as nukes are in play another world War isn't happening. There is 0 chance of victory

 

[andythinkpad]

Do people not know Russia is not one of the superpower anymore?

 

[andythinkpad]

If anyone actually cared about Syria, the civil war would be over already.

No one cares. The US, the European Union, Russia, they all drop bombs and wring their hands and look concerned. And when a refugee crisis occurs they close their borders, and when a cease fire breaks down they point fingers at each other.

The saddest thing about Syria is that it illustrates in graphic detail just how little the developed nations actually care about nations outside their own spheres. And no, they don't care enough to start a war with each other over Syria.

You make it sound like if it was a different country, the rest of the world would care.

 

[reckless]

Do people not know Russia is not one of the superpower anymore?

They have arguably the second strongest conventional military in the world and the most nukes.

Syria won't start WW3, something like the baltic states might.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

France, UK, and Germany all individually have enough to match Russia in military spending and output. WW3 would be over quick conventionally and it's only the nuclear deterrent that would keep it from occurring in the first place.

In theoretical paper terms yes, those three countries can outdo the Russian military. In practical terms the Russians have a lot of surplus Cold War equipment that is still fairly effective, a huge nuclear arsenal, large domestic arms industries, a much larger personnel count (4x as many as France; more active personnel than Germany, France, UK combined) and seem to be able to get better value for their budgets - although the exact details of their military are obviously not fully transparent and sections of it are no doubt in poor condition, especially the navy.

I would not consider the British, German or French militaries to be individually as powerful as the Russian, even discounting Nuclear weapons.

The main issue with waging a conventional WWIII is that it's going to be so bloody expensive and the armed forces of Europe and Russia have both been scaling down and lowering budgets since the Cold War ended. As armies shrink and conflict becomes more expensive, I personally feel that a brief skirmish becomes more possible.

 

[paragonpro]

brexit? ww3?
trump ww3?

I don't think we will have a world war 3, too much at stake.

No no, trump is cw2

Spoiler

/s

 

[andythinkpad]

...

The main issue with waging a conventional WWIII is that it's going to be so bloody expensive and the armed forces of Europe and Russia have both been scaling down and lowering budgets since the Cold War ended. As armies shrink and conflict becomes more expensive, I personally feel that a brief skirmish becomes more possible.

Nobody can afford to start a "conventional" WWIII, not teven United States. Globalization has already made wars between large countries unrealistic way to resolve problems. I am not counting Middle Eastern countries as large countries.

 

[andythinkpad]

what kind of war do you want to fight when both sides are armed to the teeth with thousands of nuclear missiles

realistically, everyone is just going to continue fighting their proxy wars while the West waits until the day Putin is removed from power

Russia's long term interest doesn't align with the West's interest. Russia's next leader will still continue a contest of some kind with the west.

So yes, Boris Yeltsin was kind of an idiot from the Russian point of view.

 

[Lonely1]

The next global war will be launched by post-westphalian actors.

 

[Pomerlaw]

Russia's long term interest doesn't align with the West's interest. Russia's next leader will still continue a contest of some kind with the west.

So yes, Boris Yeltsin was kind of an idiot from the Russian point of view.

Russia long term interests these days don't align with anyone, except Assad and Kadyrov.

 

[JimmyRustler]

There will be no more world war thanks to nuclear weapons. The big warmongerers are just too afraid they'll end up using those against each other.

 

[qcf x2]

As long as nukes are in play another world War isn't happening. There is 0 chance of victory

It's going to happen eventually, whether it's tomorrow or 100 years from now. We still have wars, we will always have wars, even if on paper one side (or both) has "0 chance of victory." At some point somebody is going to press the button.

 

[astroturfing]

The sooner Russia sinks as an economic power though the better.

flippantly saying shit like this angers me.. do you even realize what you're wishing for? more economic hardship for Russia means more children going hungry, more elderly people not getting care, more crime and unrest.. that's what sinking economically means. fucking senseless thing to say.

how would you like others wishing the same for your country? actively wishing diminished economic opportunities for YOUR family and neighbors?

and i'm not even Russian, hell my grandparents fought against them, and i can still see damage in my city from Russian bombs... but i still don't want Russians to suffer.

 

[Croatoan]

We won't see a true world war until the effects of climate change really start to cripple the west.

Then it will be a scrap to horde as much of the worlds resources as possible.

Nations like the United States, with large, mostly uninhabited, northern territories will survive global warming with no real problem.

Lab grown meat, and the coming green revolution will make up for food demand. We will also turn to eating a lot of bugs.

The south will be a desolate place in 150 to 200 years but before then it is going to be pretty beautiful as the increased amounts of rainfall and flooding have actually ended long standing droughts.

Case in point, Central Texas. Were I live the summer is usually pretty brown, but due to the volatile weather this year is the most beautiful year that I can remember (and I have been here for 31 years). The massive amount of rainfall has saved Lake Travis (was down 50+ feet and in danger levels), replenished ground water and kept the countryside green.

I am not sure how long this bad weather will remain but most climate change models seem to show an uptick in volatile conditions so hopefully for a few more years (get flood insurance Texans!).

The great migration north is coming though. I already have been eyeing Montana for retirement. I think 30 years from now, my retirement age, will be the right time to abandon Texas.

The interesting thing will be how the US deals with people trying to migrate from countries who don't have multiple climates (Central America). I predict a giant wall be built in about 50-100 years manned by drone troops and mounted machine gun turrets to keep people from trying to to cross the Great American Desert.

Global warming will kill billions, but the US and Canada should be ok. I have no idea how smaller countries with one climate will survive though.

I am more worried about automation, class based civil war, a rogue asteroid, and/or the singularity killing us off.

 

[Pomerlaw]

Nations like the United States, with large, mostly uninhabited, northern territories will survive global warming with no real problem.

Lab grown meat, and the coming green revolution will make up for food demand. We will also turn to eating a lot of bugs.

The south will be a desolate place in 150 to 200 years but before then it is going to be pretty beautiful as the increased amounts of rainfall and flooding have actually ended long standing droughts.

Case in point, Central Texas. Were I live the summer is usually pretty brown, but due to the volatile weather this year is the most beautiful year that I can remember (and I have been here for 31 years). The massive amount of rainfall has saved Lake Travis (was down 50+ feet and in danger levels), replenished ground water and kept the countryside green.

I am not sure how long this bad weather will remain but most climate change models seem to show an uptick in volatile conditions so hopefully for a few more years (get flood insurance Texans!).

The great migration north is coming though. I already have been eyeing Montana for retirement. I think 30 years from now, my retirement age, will be the right time to abandon Texas.

The interesting thing will be how the US deals with people trying to migrate from countries who don't have multiple climates (Central America). I predict a giant wall be built in about 50-100 years manned by drone troops and mounted machine gun turrets to keep people from trying to to cross the Great American Desert.

Global warming will kill billions, but the US and Canada should be ok. I have no idea how smaller countries with one climate will survive though.

I am more worried about automation, class based civil war, a rogue asteroid, and/or the singularity killing us off.

Man... The US will have it pretty bad. Not as bad as poor countries of course, but Florida, Texas, New Orleans are going to be hit pretty bad if nothing is done.

 

[Pomerlaw]

After all the Putin nuclear trash talk, this is really ironic.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-09-29-14-11-08

 

[Pomerlaw]

Putin suspends deal with U.S. to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/putin-suspends-deal-u-s-dispose-weapons-grade-plutonium/?


Can we consider the current relation as a new Cold War?

 

[Kurdel]

When it isn't, they are a dangerous and increasingly irrational actor.

No they are not.

Since Georgia we know what to expect from them.

Taking low hanging fruits in their backyard and pretending they are the hottest shit when we know empirically that they aren't as strong as they as projecting.

But hey, their propaganda does work on certain people on the Internet.

 

[Jerm411]

@AP: BREAKING: State Department: US suspends bilateral contacts with Russia over Syria.

Alrighty....

 

[Phantast2k]

Putin suspends deal with U.S. to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/putin-suspends-deal-u-s-dispose-weapons-grade-plutonium/?


Can we consider the current relation as a new Cold War?

Of course.

Only now they are threatening with nuclear war:

(I should clarify: They have been uttering different threats in connection to nukes since the Crimea annexation. This has not been happening during the Cold War)

West is bent on nuclear war, Russia tells people | World | The Times & The Sunday Times

@vpkivimaki
Massive mobilization exercise on Monday, civil defense exercise involving 40 million starting Tuesday.

No they are not.

Since Georgia we know what to expect from them.

Taking low hanging fruits in their backyard and pretending they are the hottest shit when we know empirically that they aren't as strong as they as projecting.

But hey, their propaganda does work on certain people on the Internet.

That may all be true, but his ambitions are growing since he's getting almost no push back from US. As the money runs out, he may have no choice but to attack more countries.

Alrighty....

Time to bomb Assad.

 

[Gorillaz]

Was about to say something to the course of "nah" but yikes if State Department suspended talks about Syria with Russia.

World War 3 it is not, but that is a head turner tho.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

It's really dumb to stop communication, accidents could happen

 

[DarkKyo]

I am more worried about automation, class based civil war, a rogue asteroid, and/or the singularity killing us off.

I say bring on the singularity. A.I. will know what is best for us.

 

[Ac30]

Of course.

Only now they are threatening with nuclear war:

(I should clarify: They have been uttering different threats in connection to nukes since the Crimea annexation. This has not been happening during the Cold War)

West is bent on nuclear war, Russia tells people | World | The Times & The Sunday Times

@vpkivimaki
Massive mobilization exercise on Monday, civil defense exercise involving 40 million starting Tuesday.


That may all be true, but his ambitions are growing since he's getting almost no push back from US. As the money runs out, he may have no choice but to attack more countries.



Time to bomb Assad.

This is why I don't understand when people wish financial ruin on the Russians. Their people will suffer and rally around Putin. Putin is an egomaniac but he's not crazy - he doesn't want a nuclear war. The next few years will be scary though when Russia goes broke.

 

[Jerm411]

It's really dumb to stop communication, accidents could happen

Exactly....esp. when egos and emotion is involved.

 

[Jetman]

Maybe Trump should put this in his campaign. "Don't want WW3? Vote the Don"

 

[Phantast2k]

It's really dumb to stop communication, accidents could happen

Read the last sentence:

This is why I don't understand when people wish financial ruin on the Russians. Their people will suffer and rally around Putin. Putin is an egomaniac but he's not crazy - he doesn't want a nuclear war. The next few years will be scary though when Russia goes broke.

1) What else do you propose to deal with them?
2) There are no sanctions on food or medicine other than Putin's own "counter-sanctions".
3) How do you know they really rally / will really behind him? The last election had a very low turnout, a ton of fraud causes (videos of people stuffing ballots and shit) and the only independent polster has been designated a foreign organization / enemy of the state.
4) Bankrupting the Soviet Union has worked handily in the 80s.

 

[Ac30]

Read the last sentence:

1) What else do you propose to deal with them?
2) There are no sanctions on food or medicine other than Putin's own "counter-sanctions".
3) How do you know they really rally / will really behind him? The last election had a very low turnout, a ton of fraud causes (videos of people stuffing ballots and shit) and the only independent polster has been designated a foreign organization / enemy of the state.
4) Bankrupting the Soviet Union has worked handily in the 80s.

This was just an observation from the wishes of some people to see the country bankrupt. I have no doubt that sanctions against Putin himself are quite effective in annoying him. I'm more worried about Putin getting thrown out (if/when the propaganda fails) and a Russian Trump taking power... then all bets are off.

As for what we can do about it, I'm not sure, beyond keeping Ukraine's border tight. I'd be curious to hear your take on it, though, I'm not an IR major.

 

[Pomerlaw]

Putin propaganda is brainwashing millions of Russians into thinking all their problems come from the outside.

It is a shitty situation.

 

[Phantast2k]

This was just an observation from the wishes of some people to see the country bankrupt. I have no doubt that sanctions against Putin himself are quite effective in annoying him. I'm more worried about Putin getting thrown out (if/when the propaganda fails) and a Russian Trump taking power... then all bets are off.

As for what we can do about it, I'm not sure, beyond keeping Ukraine's border tight. I'd be curious to hear your take on it, though, I'm not an IR major.

I am one of those people. And I'll tell you why: The Russian mindset is imperial / colonial. Most of them see other peoples around them as lesser people. Most of them see the dissolution of the Soviet Union as loss of land, even though ppl. in said countries have voted with overwhelming majorities to split from Russia.
They hold these views despite committing genocides against said people and often replacing the dead with ethnic Russians throughout the 20th century.
Many other nations are diseased with that imperial / colonial mindset, but while nations like France and the UK slowly / mostly came to terms with it and nations like Germany and Japan were forced to cure it, the Russians did neither.
It's a bit similar with the Turks and that's why the leaders in both countries are so similar.

The Russians had a change to come to terms with said mindset, but they didn't. The world will continue to suffer from said mindset unless the Russians go through a shock therapy similar to Germany and Japan.

My hope is that an economic collapse can do exactly that, maybe followed by more ethnic groups splitting off of them.

-----
How is Putin not the Russian Trump? There's no realistic successor for Putin who could be a worse leader than Putin for Russia.
Btw. there are still no sanctions against him personally.
-----

As to what I'd do: Well, to begin with I would not have emboldened Putin by giving him a carte blanche in Georgia or letting him go unpunished after that. I wouldn't have blinked like Obama did with his red line in the Syrian sand.
Anyhow, here's what I'd do:

1. Right now the Russian economy is heading towards abyss and I would make sure that the rails it's on keep pointing in that direction, i.e.: I would introduce new (Western) sanctions, for more of their industrial sectors in connection with their conduct in Syria. Any oil price increases should be met with subsidies to shale oil producers to expand their output and keep the oil price down - even though I'm fairly sure it'll stay down on its own
2. Supply the rebels with Russian / Soviet MANPADS. Those are perfectly capable of hitting Russian SUs and Migs. The rebels are already getting some Chinese / NK ones from the gulf states so what's the point in holding them back?
3. Supply the rebels in Latakia and close to Latakia with MLRS to reach Russian bases to make it unsafe for the Russians to fly from there.
4. I would secretly arm Ukraine with defensive weaponry and more importantly help them expand their own capabilities. The Ukrainians are already apparently developing new ballistic missiles with some know how from nuke deployment systems (with MIRVs). This would freak the Russians out. An improved AA system would also help.
5. Try to pull away his friend's. Belars' Lukashenko has already hiked the price for gas transit and is threatening to leave the Eurasian Union. Work on that.
6. Exert pressure on the Russian oligarchs not close to Putin to plot against him by threatening their property in the West.
7. Expand NATO presence in countries bordering Russia.

The main objective should be to make the Russian state fail so that it can't pay for its operation in Syria or continue to threaten Ukraine.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Putin propaganda is brainwashing millions of Russians into thinking all their problems come from the outside.

It is a shitty situation.

Casual Slavophobia doesn't help when it just reinforces the propaganda they're fed.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Putin suspends plutonium deal with US & sets conditions for return: US scrapping sanctions, US compensation, NATO troop cuts. Speechless.

Putin getting cocky post garbage "ceasefire"

 

[Netherscourge]

World War III will be (or is) a proxy war.

The US will battle Russia through countries like Syria and South Korea.

 

[Hermii]

A real World War 3 in a post-nuclear society is unlikely.

It's unlikely, but if it happens we are all doomed. Murphy's law and all.

 

[Pomerlaw]

Casual Slavophobia doesn't help when it just reinforces the propaganda they're fed.

Oh you can try to reason them. Go to RT news and check the feed.

Only the Russian people can get us out of this mess, but I'm not sure we can do anything about it. Right now Putin feels what he does just make him more popular, and it looks like it works.

 

[TheRealTalker]

I can't see Russia surviving while maintaining so many fronts

their GDP is now comparable to Spain

their reserves will be exhausted in 2017

and even worse they chose poor allies that are also similar to it in global affairs

 

[Pomerlaw]

their reserves will be exhausted in 2017

What do you mean by reserves?

Their economy seems bad right now... It may all depend on the price of oil.

Seems they are going to have to deal with sanctions for a while.,..

 

[hydragonwarrior]

First world country economies influence each other too greatly - I can't see any world war happening because there's nothing to gain from crippling another world power and assuming the next few years will go grand for the "winning" power.

Even N. Korea, despite the crazies in power, have some sane strategists that know that triggering a war will not be in their favor for the immediate future and long term future.

 

[Davilmar]

What do you mean by reserves?

Their economy seems bad right now... It may all depend on the price of oil.

Seems they are going to have to deal with sanctions for a while.,..

I believe he is referring to Russia's financial reserves, which will run out in 2017. Russia had a significant surplus when oil prices were high. When they run out of money, things will get bad. Very bad.

Quick Source:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/16/news/economy/russia-cash-reserves-depleted/

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that.
"At the current rate, the fund would be depleted in mid-2017, perhaps a few months later," Ondrej Schneider, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in a note this week.

 

[Sijil]

Russia just sent more S300 batteries, the VM model. No doubt to deter even the slightest thought the West had about imposing a no airspace zone for the SyAF or bombing their airforce bases.

With that many batteries Putin can even declare coalition warplanes not welcome in government airspace, he could cite the Deir ez Zor strike on the SAA as pretext.