http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=508890
if this should have been nintendo, do you think the thread would have been 6 pages too?
honest question
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Arm Chair Analysis: How GAF and others overreact on Nintendo every single time.
- Thread starter GregLombardi
- Start date
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=508890
if this should have been nintendo, do you think the thread would have been 6 pages too?
honest question
As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
It's unfortunate that you only take the time to perform your analysis on the Pro-Nintendo side of the argument but ignore the opposition. It leads to your post (which you obviously put a lot of effort into) coming across as a more obfuscated version of the same Nintendo fanboyism that most of the people you're complaining about are complaining about. You go to great lengths to point out how important objectivity and analysis is, and then fail to objectively analyze the topic yourself (or at least fail to present that fully objective analysis in your writeup). It's a great echo-chamber piece, and I'm sure many people will now show up to tell you how correct you are. However, I'm willing to bet that every person who showed up disagreeing with you also left that way, because all you did was insult their rationality rather than empathizing with and objectively discussing their concerns in any way.
Edit: And admitting that the Wii-U failed financially does not count as objectivity (it's the only negative you list in your analysis), it's actually just undeniable fact being leveraged for the sake of creating the illusion of objectivity.
Edit: And admitting that the Wii-U failed financially does not count as objectivity (it's the only negative you list in your analysis), it's actually just undeniable fact being leveraged for the sake of creating the illusion of objectivity.
The main reason that Nintendo gets a bad rap is because they're out of sync with the rest of the industry. When they have really successful products, being out of sync makes them look innovative, but when their products are unsuccessful, then it just looks like Nintendo is out of touch. The overwhelming conservativeness of the company helps to reinforce this image, and honestly I think that they really are behind the times.
The Switch is a good example of this. Nintendo designed it so that it can be played multiple ways in local multiplayer, but local multiplayer has been superseded by online multiplayer for the vast majority of the gaming population ages ago, so it's pretty much a non-factor outside of Japan nowadays. The product itself unlike anything else on the industry, and it doesn't look like it'll have widespread appeal because it's a worst of both worlds kind of product. But the big caveat is that there's still a chance that it can resonate with the greater market and be a hit.
GregLombardi
Member
No, haha, thank you. This is exactly on topic. Goes to show that even in an area where I was trying to demonstrate expertise, I wobbled into an area in which I am not at all an expert. But what you inferred is exactly what I meant.
One of the items you missed that is fairly damning is nintendos terrible transition into the digital age that is often overlooked, the whole industry is heading that way, and nintendo? they're barely up on where they were 3 years ago.
See a comparison to Sony, courtesy of ZhugeEX
This is a big item they need to sort to move forward, since Digital will only grow and grow and thats a big part of the switch that is unanswered.
Couldn't agree more and this is a great chart. That said, the popularity of Sony's device relative to Wii U (and I guess even 3DS eshop sales) obviously speaks to this difference. Either way it is their problem, though, and one that needs to be addressed.
I hear this critique, and it is a valid one of my post. There are many problems with the company and I didn't go into them because, quite frankly, it is hard to know what the real problems are when they are so secret in the way they comport themselves. Also my post was getting REALLY long and I wanted to focus more on recent reactions and how they didn't reflect reality rather than a holistic deconstruction of every single thing under Nintendo's umbrella. But yes, I am positive on the company. I think they are better positioned than they've been in a while.
Couldn't agree more. But when it comes to anything more, I feel like it becomes really hard to reach the population of people that is perpetuating it. If we start talking politics, everything goes batshit insane within a few minutes.
I like your manner of thought, but disagree with your conclusions. The best I could do in the time I had was dissect some recent flash points of the Nintendo story, and when you really look at those flash points, they are improving their organization on a holistic level. Nowhere in my post do I say they do not have problems, or challenges in front of them. But I feel I do give a very bare bones assessment of the flash points of current discussion surrounding the company, and I do think those flashpoints appear to have a larger negative financial effect in GAF'ers discussions than in reality. Thus, in the end, I am presenting an intensely financial perspective on the logical directionality of Nintendo's financial needle based upon metric assessment surrounding the specific flash points, rather than a pure opinion piece. However, your complaint is not without merit in my mind, I just think its hard on a message board to perform the task you ask without writing an entire bible.
I didn't see this before I responded to your post. I agree, it does not. One in my spot could have gone deeper into the fact that Nintendo's lost market share, market position, and mindshare after the Wii U does represent a large risk to the organization. And in counting a stronger negative, that would be completely appropriate and perhaps I should have underscored that further. When I think about it, in the back of my mind, I still feel the same as I did when GAF was obsessing over the "NX". I really do not think that Nintendo's console space decisions will affect it as much as its long term success on mobile platforms. How they walk the line between the Switch and Mobile Phone development is key to their future, but I think they have significantly more financial variance in mobile development than they likely do in a dedicated console device.
TheSpoiler
Member
You are comparing two situations with wildly different variables. Stop.
what?
if nintendo sold its US headquarters, the thread will be 6 pages? just answer
FinaruDensetsu
Member
One of the items you missed that is fairly damning is nintendos terrible transition into the digital age that is often overlooked, the whole industry is heading that way, and nintendo? they're barely up on where they were 3 years ago.
See a comparison to Sony, courtesy of ZhugeEX
This is a big item they need to sort to move forward, since Digital will only grow and grow and thats a big part of the switch that is unanswered.
Yeah this is what I am looking forward to them talking about most in January. Honestly what year is this when only one of my 3DSes can have my account on it and I have to use a unfathomably obtuse method to transfer from handheld to handheld?? Every account based thing I have allows me to have multiple devices registered to it and use it effortlessly.
I really hope Nintendo has done a LOT of hiring of bright, young people who understand how modern digital account systems work.
SomedayTheFire
Member
It seems to happen both ways on here quite a bit, when Nintendo do something you have a group saying f how it's the greatest thing ever then another group who say it's the worst thing ever. It's really hard to read Nintendo thread seriously on here because of it. Shame because there usually some great conversations in the middle of all the hubris.
SystemUser
Member
No. Both the Wii U current price and the 3DS launch prices were reasonable and Nintendo made no mistakes. Nintendo is playing 4D chess. They needed the Wii U to slump to catapult the Switch. It works like drafting in NASCAR. Shake and Bake.
Humdinger
Gold Member
But this is what forums are based on. People spouting off about stuff they know little about. People passing judgment on stuff they don't have any real experience with. Etc., etc. It's what makes the forum go 'round. Well-informed posts have always been the exception rather than the rule.
And truthfully, that's fine with me. If only well-informed people posted, it would be a pretty slow and dull forum. You take the good with the bad; they're intertwined. I'll take the drama and over-reaction. Sometimes it's fun, a source of amusement. After a while, you just learn to see it for what it is.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
Actual financial expert- "Nintendo isn't doomed you guys are being ridiculous."
Gaf- "Nintendo is doomed look at this chart!"
Gaf- "Nintendo is doomed look at this chart!"
Citation for the 2nd quote?
TheSpoiler
Member
Drawing conclusions from a singular forum topic is, humorously enough, a form of arm chair analysis. And you aren't cute with that "just answer" stuff.
I think that the problem here is that Nintendo is always going to think of its handheld/console segment as their core business, and treat mobile as a peripheral concern. And that's where the crux of any negativity on Nintendo's prospects lie. Their core product lines have both seen staggering losses compared to the previous products and the likelihood of making a major reversal of this trend wasn't particularly high. Nintendo's decision to effectively combine both product lines into one also serves to consolidate all of their risk into this one product. They managed to offset some of the Wii U's losses with profits on the 3DS, but that's not going to be an option any more. It's possible that this gamble will pay off for them, but it's a major gamble nonetheless.
Fair enough. To be more specific in my criticism, I was simply disappointed to see (at least in my reading) no discussion of past trends, because I think that's where the majority of Nintendo negativity lies. Your analysis seems to cherry pick (as you say yourself) recent events without considering them in light of overall trends. If a company's performance trajectory has been a net negative for decades then picking out a few positive recent events to justify that company's future health seems very short-sighted.
One could form a strong argument against your analysis based on the fact that the only real financial success in recent memory (that came directly from Nintendo's effort) was a retro toy device that has no real long term profit potential. The pokemon go stock growth was a fluke of investor ignorance, Super Mario Run has not shown any real monetization potential yet, and the Switch is possibly the most risky platform than Nintendo has released since the Wii. It's too large and fragile for the handheld market and not powerful enough for the console market. The launch line-up is very weak and mostly filled with remasters of games that the mainstream console crowd has already played. It could easily become another niche Nintendo platform that only serves one generation of first party games and then dies.
Personally, I don't see anything there that leads me to believe that Nintendo is poised to reverse their overall downward trajectory.
Eh... it's probably not as much of a gamble as you think. With one hardware product, not only do they consolidate their library, they consolidate their R&D costs, marketing costs, manufacturing costs, etc.
Plus, I see their mobile games as a hedge.
P.S. Yes... I'm armcharing right now... But that's what forums are all about.
Meta irony.
People need to realize Nintendo is going to move to the beat of their own drum..
it makes all of their often weird decisions make a lot more sense. Sometimes it works out...other times it doesn't. But that's Nintendo in a nutshell. It has kept them around for a loooooong ass time.
it makes all of their often weird decisions make a lot more sense. Sometimes it works out...other times it doesn't. But that's Nintendo in a nutshell. It has kept them around for a loooooong ass time.
If an opinion is based on nothing then why pay attention to it at all?
ViolentP
Member
It's the essence of human interaction.
SumptuousLemur
Banned
The fact a thread like this was made is enough to show that Nintendo's public image isn't good.
Regardless of the true facts, a person's opinion is based on news (which could be fake in this day and age), crowd mentality and other influences.
If all those things working together are creating a negative public image of Nintendo where there is over reaction and negativity, then obviously something is wrong somewhere. Honestly, shareholders are acting this exact same way, look at the knee jerk reaction after Super Mario Run's launch by shareholders.
As a gamer we don't owe Nintendo anything, they have to sell to us. So asking people to feel one way or another about a company (Nintendo) is a silly argument and just wastes time. Just speak your mind and contact Nintendo and hope they will listen.
Be critical and be open.
As a customer being critical and open I feel like Nintendo doesn't deserve my money after getting a 3DS and Wii U at launch. The 3DS was a launch failure with a price reduction that made gaming history in its speediness and the Wii U ended up being amazing the first few years but failed and leaves you with an empty husk of a console in the end, with Nintendo wanting your money sooner than if the Wii U had been a success. With the PS4 Pro and Xbox Scorpio at least you don't 100% need the new console to play games, just with better performance and such. While the Switch demands you have to purchase it to play new Nintendo games, and probably (not based on evidence but feelings) you will not be able to carry your digital games that are ported forward to Switch like Splatoon. I don't want to reward them with one of their worse generations ever. The 3DS family has sold half of what the DS family sold worldwide and the Wii U is their worse performing console ever if we don't include the Virtual Boy. That is my feeling on Nintendo right now. What's yours?
OP what are your feelings on Nintendo as an actual gamer, not an investor?
Regardless of the true facts, a person's opinion is based on news (which could be fake in this day and age), crowd mentality and other influences.
If all those things working together are creating a negative public image of Nintendo where there is over reaction and negativity, then obviously something is wrong somewhere. Honestly, shareholders are acting this exact same way, look at the knee jerk reaction after Super Mario Run's launch by shareholders.
As a gamer we don't owe Nintendo anything, they have to sell to us. So asking people to feel one way or another about a company (Nintendo) is a silly argument and just wastes time. Just speak your mind and contact Nintendo and hope they will listen.
Be critical and be open.
As a customer being critical and open I feel like Nintendo doesn't deserve my money after getting a 3DS and Wii U at launch. The 3DS was a launch failure with a price reduction that made gaming history in its speediness and the Wii U ended up being amazing the first few years but failed and leaves you with an empty husk of a console in the end, with Nintendo wanting your money sooner than if the Wii U had been a success. With the PS4 Pro and Xbox Scorpio at least you don't 100% need the new console to play games, just with better performance and such. While the Switch demands you have to purchase it to play new Nintendo games, and probably (not based on evidence but feelings) you will not be able to carry your digital games that are ported forward to Switch like Splatoon. I don't want to reward them with one of their worse generations ever. The 3DS family has sold half of what the DS family sold worldwide and the Wii U is their worse performing console ever if we don't include the Virtual Boy. That is my feeling on Nintendo right now. What's yours?
OP what are your feelings on Nintendo as an actual gamer, not an investor?
Gamer @ Heart
Member
I just can't wrap my head around why people want 3 companies to compete in the exact same space in the exact same way.
Are they just really upset Nintendo isn't direct trying to cater their demographic, therefore fuck them?
Are they just really upset Nintendo isn't direct trying to cater their demographic, therefore fuck them?
TheSpoiler
Member
That really goes for both diehard Nintendo fanboys who gush at the slightness Nintendo news, and people lurking in every Nintendo thread ready to shitpost on the smallest stuff.
What I'm saying is, there would be no NeoGAF if everyone ignored the meaningless opinions of others. Most of us, one way or another, aren't really able to speak on many things. Doesn't stop the discussion, nor should it.
MilkyJoe
Member
Then price it accordingly and everybody is happy...
ArkhamFantasy
Member
The fact that a handheld is being compared to home consoles shows how badly nintendos messaging, marketing, and pr is.
Instead if this being marketed as by far the most powerful handheld ever with 100% support from nintendos first party developers ( instead of 50%) we have them advertising it as the weak home console.
These are self inflicted wounds despite the actual product looking very promising.
Sure. But when it comes to financials there are numbers and facts. In what way one wants to interpret numbers, that's another story. But this isn't politics, it's video games.
PdotMichael
Banned
I expected a bunch of quotes from NeoGAF users about several Nintendo related topics at least.
But this is some Posttruth nonsesne.
But this is some Posttruth nonsesne.
SumptuousLemur
Banned
Wait a minute OP thinks Nintendo is leaving the handheld market?
They're leaving the console market based on what the Switch is. The more the Switch has revealed itself, the more it shows that the "at home" position is the least thought about part of the Switch as a platform.
Come on.
They're leaving the console market based on what the Switch is. The more the Switch has revealed itself, the more it shows that the "at home" position is the least thought about part of the Switch as a platform.
Come on.
Iced Arcade
Member
It's a message board Mr shareholder...
This so much.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
One of the items you missed that is fairly damning is nintendos terrible transition into the digital age that is often overlooked, the whole industry is heading that way, and nintendo? they're barely up on where they were 3 years ago.
See a comparison to Sony, courtesy of ZhugeEX
This is a big item they need to sort to move forward, since Digital will only grow and grow and thats a big part of the switch that is unanswered.
.
Bolivar687
Banned
It's not armchair analysis. We say Nintendo is doomed because we have decades of hard data showing a consistent decline in both their consoles and handhelds.
The overreaction comes because it's fun to sensationalize things. The only thing more sensational in this industry than the runaway success of the Wii and DS, is how their sales fell off a cliff in 2011 and how the success did not translate to a renewal of the Nintendo brand.
Some people get carried away and malicious with it because we're always being hammered over the head by journalists and enthusiasts about how amazing Nintendo is supposed to be as a developer. They have some of the longest running franchises in gaming - if their games were really so good, they would sell better and so would their consoles.
We're slowly coming to the realization that the Wii and DS weren't successful because they're innovative, Nintendo games might not be all that great and their IP might not be so beloved. The Wii and the DS may have only been successful because of their relentless marketing with sex symbols like Beyonce and Seth Green.
The overreaction comes because it's fun to sensationalize things. The only thing more sensational in this industry than the runaway success of the Wii and DS, is how their sales fell off a cliff in 2011 and how the success did not translate to a renewal of the Nintendo brand.
Some people get carried away and malicious with it because we're always being hammered over the head by journalists and enthusiasts about how amazing Nintendo is supposed to be as a developer. They have some of the longest running franchises in gaming - if their games were really so good, they would sell better and so would their consoles.
We're slowly coming to the realization that the Wii and DS weren't successful because they're innovative, Nintendo games might not be all that great and their IP might not be so beloved. The Wii and the DS may have only been successful because of their relentless marketing with sex symbols like Beyonce and Seth Green.
Atom Heart Mother
Banned
OP, want to say how much I LOVE your post. This has been bugging me for years! I can not stand it. Anytime I mention something new from Nintendo to my circle of friends, atleast 2 - 3 of them has to play the armchair analysis and pretend they're well vested in the market and know their shit. It's PERFECTLY ok to NOT like something by Nintendo. But when these people don't like Nintendo they need to go into detail on how bad of a decision this is for their financials and how it won't succeed. Like the Switch. I told my friends about it and one of them went on a tangent on how it's going to fail and not capture the market at all -- and keep in this mind Friend 1 doesn't like Nintendo hasn't even bought a console by them since the GC. It's just annoying that he's trying to reinforce his opinion as fact with research he found himself on the market will perform. Yeah, the Wii U was a flop. Will the Switch be a flop? Who knows? Why does everyone count their chickens before their hatched? Why do you want something to flop?
It's just flat out annoying. Just say you don't like Nintendo. I don't need you to force your opinion as fact just because you saw them not doing as well they usually do. Nintendo is a big company. They have the know-how and knowledge on how to market their products. You're not the ONE who knows what will happen. Nintendo doesn't need your knowledge. It's cool to speculate, just don't force this DOOMED shit on to me.
It's just flat out annoying. Just say you don't like Nintendo. I don't need you to force your opinion as fact just because you saw them not doing as well they usually do. Nintendo is a big company. They have the know-how and knowledge on how to market their products. You're not the ONE who knows what will happen. Nintendo doesn't need your knowledge. It's cool to speculate, just don't force this DOOMED shit on to me.
It's a gamble because if the Switch is a flop, Nintendo won't have any other major sources of revenue. It helps to solve some of Nintendo's problems, but it also introduces a major vulnerability.
Mobile may be that major source of revenue some time in the future, but it's currently so under-developed that it won't be able to fulfill that role for at least several years.
The Switch is a consolidation of both product lines. Arguably, the potential problem is that it's not going to fully satisfy the needs of neither the handheld nor the home console markets.
AZ Greg
Member
I don't subscribe to the Nintendo is doomed sensationalism. But for the first time in my life, I actually believe the possibility of them going 3rd party is quite good, if the Switch is another WiiU.
If it fails to take off, where do they go from there? Their Hail Mary had always been leveraging their successful handheld business. Now, if it fails, they're not only continuing their overall trend of poor home hardware performance but they'll have dragged their handheld business down with it.
My prediction is third party by 2020. But who knows...
If it fails to take off, where do they go from there? Their Hail Mary had always been leveraging their successful handheld business. Now, if it fails, they're not only continuing their overall trend of poor home hardware performance but they'll have dragged their handheld business down with it.
My prediction is third party by 2020. But who knows...
WiiU failed from brand confusion and marketing.
Wii U failed because Nintendo made a bad product.
plagiarize
Banned
Oh boy do you have a treat to look forwards to.
Get your butt on Netflix and watch Twin Peaks.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
How could anyone want this. Sega's output has drastically changed for the worse post going 3rd party.
KiefbladeMaster
Member
And lack of third party software, first party software droughts, announcing a successor console 2 years into its life cycle and it being dramatically (10x iirc) less powerful than the competition. But yeah, just marketing and brand confusion.
The whole 'lateral thinking with withered technology' people keep quoting is totally bs when you price it at the level of premium hardware, imo, as well.
that was funny because I kinda didn't expect to be right, but it was even worse than I could have imagined
The doomsayers, I agree, that's just dumb and something that's not feasibly going to happen. Nintendo will be solvent from now until forever. My main complaint is lack of parity between the machines. Since when is having only 1st party games good for a console or a consumer? Never, that's when. Nintendo have relegated themselves to a non-compete status. That's not the Nintendo I remember.
I think merging their console and handheld business is a bad idea. I could see more cross-buy type between each machine, but one console to rule both landscapes IMO won't work. I hope I'm wrong, and we see Nintendo come back stronger than ever, but with the current info we have, I don't see that happening, at least with Switch.
I think merging their console and handheld business is a bad idea. I could see more cross-buy type between each machine, but one console to rule both landscapes IMO won't work. I hope I'm wrong, and we see Nintendo come back stronger than ever, but with the current info we have, I don't see that happening, at least with Switch.
You must not frequent Nintendo threads very often. The negativity about anything Nintendo does is just sickening, and always seems especially potent and hostile.
Why?