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[LectureMaster]

These are not "flop" numbers. Obviously not setting the world on fire either. The game is performing well, but not breaking records. Certainly not bad.

Not a flop. Folks with knowledge about the company and franchise should be realistic about it.

But I think it will underperform compared to what Ubi wanted the game to be, given many have the "this is win or be sold" sentiment. Hopefully it won't be long till we see the financial results.

 

[DrFigs]

And this is not copies "sold". It "players engaged"

If this game is not on gamepass or a subscription service, then it should be close to 1:1.

 

[Topher]

Comparing the first days player counts of Odyssey and Shadows is a bit dishonest. The Shadows numbers will obviously be more front loaded due the existence of Ubi+ and the fact that more people buy digital in 2025 than in 2018.

The more curious thing in my opinion is that we haven’t received a “3 million players!” celebratory tweet yet.

Companies do not usually send out announcements at every million player milestone. Could be the next number reveal will be at the stockholder meeting just as MS did with Indiana Jones.

 

[MMaRsu]

If this game is not on gamepass or a subscription service, then it should be close to 1:1.

Its on Ubi+. However I doubt that counts for more than 20% of players.

 

[dorkimoe]

Id be curious how many threads per game we have on sales/player count versus actually people enjoying and talking about the game.

 

[Topher]

Not a flop. Folks with knowledge about the company and franchise should be realistic about it.

But I think it will underperform compared to what Ubi wanted the game to be, given many have the "this is win or be sold" sentiment. Hopefully it won't be long till we see the financial results.

Yeah, as I said earlier, the game can perform very well and still not be enough for Ubi to weather their current situation.

 

[Kotaro]

And this is not copies "sold". It "players engaged"

yep, free to play for Ubisoft+ subs....and you can just sub for a month to play, then cancel the sub after a month, much less revenue than units sold.

when 'units sold' number is bad, they just change the goal post to 'players', just like how Xbox measure their games

 

[EN250]

Contrary to what some might say, AC is still a huge (and enjoyable) franchise.

One of the biggest gaming brands in almost twenty years, it also managed to reinvent itself, though I don't like the new entries past ACIV, it can't be dismissed that the game has its audience

 

[Blitzkrieg!]

Companies do not usually send out announcements at every million player milestone. Could be the next number reveal will be at the stockholder meeting just as MS did with Indiana Jones.

Possible, but ceasing communication after day 2 seems like it would suggest something about the performance of the game given how enthusiastic they initially were about getting the narrative out that the game was performing great.

 

[DrFigs]

Its on Ubi+. However I doubt that counts for more than 20% of players.

I see it is on Ubi+. Still the preorders alone are likely to put it above odyssey. I think it was 300k last I checked. So it needed to sell just over 100k at launch?

 

[phant0m]

yep, free to play for Ubisoft+ subs....and you can just sub for a month to play, then cancel the sub after a month, much less revenue than units sold.

when 'units sold' number is bad, they just change the goal post to 'players', just like how Xbox measure their games

It’s the best way to play Ubi games tbh. Played Outlaws this way too.

I don’t care about “owning” their titles, and apparently they don’t either.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Wasn't it 1m day 1? And that's with much stronger Ubisoft+ now that ate into the sales.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

They don't talk about sale number here, just players

My bad. Meant to say players and not copies sold. Going to edit my original reply.

 

[Topher]

Possible, but ceasing communication after day 2 seems like it would suggest something about the performance of the game given how enthusiastic they initially were about getting the narrative out that the game was performing great.

It doesn't mean anything. This is common.

 

[Blitzkrieg!]

It doesn't mean anything. This is common.

I don’t agree. These announcements are part of the marketing push for a new release as well. Letting the world know that people are flocking to play your game creates a sense of FOMO and drives more sales. But it’s only possible as long as you can spin your numbers into something that’s perceived as impressive.

 

[DeaDPo0L84]

The real crime here is that @ManaByte isn't around to argue about this

 

[DeaDPo0L84]

Yeah, as I said earlier, the game can perform very well and still not be enough for Ubi to weather their current situation.

I think this is where a lot of people are getting tripped up. Their current situation is so bad that even though Shadows is having success it potentially will still not be enough to get them out of the red.

 

[Topher]

I don’t agree. These announcements are part of the marketing push for a new release as well. Letting the world know that people are flocking to play your game creates a sense of FOMO and drives more sales. But it’s only possible as long as you can spin your numbers into something that’s perceived as impressive.

Show me the three or more announcements of player or sales counts during the first week for any other game. Heck, make it the first month.

I think this is where a lot of people are getting tripped up. Their current situation is so bad that even though Shadows is having success it potentially will still not be enough to get them out of the red.

I would guess a major shakeup is coming and one game isn't going to change that no matter how successful. Ubisoft is in a really bad spot.

 

[bender]

Show me the three or more announcements of player or sales counts during the first week for any other game. Heck, make it the first month.

I can give you figures for Concord's first month.

 

[Blitzkrieg!]

Show me the three or more announcements of player or sales counts during the first week for any other game. Heck, make it the first month.



I would guess a major shakeup is coming and one game isn't going to change that no matter how successful. Ubisoft is in a really bad spot.

 

[Topher]

Palworld devs did, I’ll give you that. But this just shows you how rare this really is.

 

[Boss Mog]

Who gives a shit about "player" numbers? It's a stat that only Ubi can see and that they can easily just make it up. I mean Ubi can generate infinite keys at no cost on their platform. The way their stock is tanking I can easily see them being desperate enough to do something like that. Player count also includes people that subscribed for one month to Ubi+ just to play Shadows; that's not a sale.

The only thing to do now is just wait patiently until the real sales numbers come out and to see if Ubi rebounds or crashes completely.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

behind the numbers?. what about behind the narrative?

they are trying too hard.

 

[MMaRsu]

Who gives a shit about "player" numbers? It's a stat that only Ubi can see and that they can easily just make it up. I mean Ubi can generate infinite keys at no cost on their platform. The way their stock is tanking I can easily see them being desperate enough to do something like that. Player count also includes people that subscribed for one month to Ubi+ just to play Shadows; that's not a sale.

The only thing to do now is just wait patiently until the real sales numbers come out and to see if Ubi rebounds or crashes completely.

Sure the publicly traded company is just lying and generating keys

Man you are so smart

 

[Boss Mog]

Sure the publicly traded company is just lying and generating keys

Man you are so smart

You're so naive, publicly traded companies have done WAY worse things.

 

[MMaRsu]

You're so naive, publicly traded companies have done WAY worse things.

Show me where Ubisoft is lying and just generating thousands of keys

Your just talking out of your ass, straight up

And its just a bunch of bullcrap

 

[Alebrije]

I Will Buy the Game once it reach 30-40 US price, its the real value of this IP.

There are a Lot of people waiting for a discount to jump in. So yes the Game Will reach 4-6 millions of players and this is fine for an AC Game. The problem is not Shadows the problem is UBI that needs like 3 or 4 games like Shadows to be agaib a relevant developer.

 

[Kotaro]

Show me the three or more announcements of player or sales counts during the first week for any other game. Heck, make it the first month.

A lot actually

Within the first week:
Animal Crossing New Horizon
Pokemon Scarlet Violet
Zelda ToTK
Monster Hunter Wilds
Palworld
Dragon Ball Z: Sparkling Zero <—- sold 3 million in first 24 hours

Within the first two weeks:
Cyberpunk
Hogwarts Legacy
Elden Ring

And those games sales number completely destroy Shadows number

 

[Woopah]

A lot actually

Within the first week:
Animal Crossing New Horizon
Pokemon Scarlet Violet
Zelda ToTK
Monster Hunter Wilds
Palworld
Dragon Ball Z: Sparkling Zero <—- sold 3 million in first 24 hours

Within the first two weeks:
Cyberpunk
Hogwarts Legacy
Elden Ring

And those games sales number completely destroy Shadows number

I think Topher 's point is that most companies don't give near daily updates.

For example, Nintendo gave a update on TOTK at launch but didn't continue providing sales updates on days 2, 3 and 4. That doesn't mean it was bad news.

 

[Ogbert]

They are public traded companies, they cannot lie.

This isn’t a financial report.

It’s marketing.

 

[Topher]

A lot actually

Within the first week:
Animal Crossing New Horizon
Pokemon Scarlet Violet
Zelda ToTK
Monster Hunter Wilds
Palworld
Dragon Ball Z: Sparkling Zero <—- sold 3 million in first 24 hours

Within the first two weeks:
Cyberpunk
Hogwarts Legacy
Elden Ring

And those games sales number completely destroy Shadows number

You misread my post

I think Topher 's point is that most companies don't give near daily updates.

For example, Nintendo gave a update on TOTK at launch but didn't continue providing sales updates on days 2, 3 and 4. That doesn't mean it was bad news.

Correct. Very rare for companies to reveal numbers repeatedly during the first few days. B Blitzkrieg! actually found a good example with Palworld where they did, but cases like that are the exception.

 

[yurinka]

You are wrong.

2020 market size: $159.3 billion https://strivesponsorship.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Global-Games-Market-Report-2020.pdf , this talks about $175 billion - https://globalxetfs.co.jp/en/research/video-games-esports-building-on-2020s-rapid-growth/index.html
2025: $345 billion - https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/gaming-market-analysis-2025-everything-you-need-know-1731535

I'm not wrong. Btw, your 2nd link is an estimate from 2021 and the 3rd one a joke or is adding things like hardware and accesories on top.

According to Newzoo, getting their consolidated numbers for each past year (2012-2023) plus most recent forecasts (2024-2026) things look like this, I suggest you to take special attention to the YoY change specially up to / around covid:

Receipts, getting the past years numbers and for 2012-2013 and not forecasts. For 2024-2026 we get the most recent forecast.

February 2024 forecast, to get 2021 and 2022 numbers plus 2025 and 2026 forecasts:

August 2024 estimate to get 2023 (2.1% yoy means 2023 did $183.8B) and the most recent forecast:

July 2021 forecas to get 2019 and 2020 numbers:

June 2019 forecast to get 2018 number:

April 2018 forecast to get the 2012-2017 numbers:

 

[Boss Mog]

Show me where Ubisoft is lying and just generating thousands of keys

Your just talking out of your ass, straight up

And its just a bunch of bullcrap

I never said they did it, just that if they did do it, nobody would know cause only they have the "player" numbers. Keep spinning it however you want but when companies talk up "player numbers" and "engagement" it's because talking actual sales would not look good for them.

 

[EDMIX]

Valhalla got a big boost from launching alongside ps5, so if this is true, its a good win for ubi.

Truth. This game will likely release along side Switch 2, but I don't know if that platform will give em as much as a boost as PS5 / Series X launch

 

[Joel Was Right]

 

[KungFucius]

This is paid copies, btw, unlike the other two games, which is why it is significantly lower.

C'mon. Do you have proof that roughly 3 out of every 4 players is Ubisoft+ing this game? I did, and did the same for Valhalla. I hope I can beat this one in a month.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Ubisoft leaking numbers to "journalists" instead of officially saying anything themselves already says all I really need to know

If this game was a smash hit they would be screaming about it on all their social media accounts, especially since the survival of the company as an independent organization seems to be riding on heavily on it

 

[Bernardougf]

[

Not a flop. Folks with knowledge about the company and franchise should be realistic about it.

But I think it will underperform compared to what Ubi wanted the game to be, given many have the "this is win or be sold" sentiment. Hopefully it won't be long till we see the financial results.

Is quite bizarre having your business hopes in one product and at the same time purposely injecting divisive personal world/social views on said project. But then again when this game started developing woke was at an all time high...

I said it before, looking at this results, this game could've been a gigantic success ...

 

[SHAKEZ]

I told people to wait for the truth... They never ever learn.

 

[Karak]

Palworld devs did, I’ll give you that. But this just shows you how rare this really is.

I checked on this. Thought it would be interesting. Less than 9 games in total have done that. That was fun as hell to check the query for. Though more have done that if they bounce the tweet from one wording to another.
Users
Buyers
New players

But its not an expectation nor a norm. Also not OUT of expectation either. Every company is taking social media in its own way these days.

 

[Topher]

I checked on this. Thought it would be interesting. Less than 9 games in total have done that. That was fun as hell to check the query for. Though more have done that if they bounce the tweet from one wording to another.
Users
Buyers
New players

But its not an expectation nor a norm. Also not OUT of expectation either. Every company is taking social media in its own way these days.

Yep. Which means it is silly to try and derive any sort of meaning out of any of it. But this is all nothing more than agendas in search of narratives.

 

[genesisblock]

I think Topher 's point is that most companies don't give near daily updates.

For example, Nintendo gave a update on TOTK at launch but didn't continue providing sales updates on days 2, 3 and 4. That doesn't mean it was bad news.

Whether the game is successful or not, it would be very weird providing sales updates frequently. Wouldn't that count as market manipulation if you're trying to post "positive" results on a daily basis? The industry that does this is Crypto and you can clearly see why they're being banned from regulations.

 

[Woopah]

Whether the game is successful or not, it would be very weird providing sales updates frequently. Wouldn't that count as market manipulation if you're trying to post "positive" results on a daily basis? The industry that does this is Crypto and you can clearly see why they're being banned from regulations.

That's the point, it would be weird for it to happen and its not weird that Ubisfot isn't doing it.

Technically Ubisoft could do it if they wanted. I don't believe it would count as market manipulation if the number Ubisoft shared were actually true. But it would look odd I think.

 

[genesisblock]

That's the point, it would be weird for it to happen and its not weird that Ubisfot isn't doing it.

Technically Ubisoft could do it if they wanted. I don't believe it would count as market manipulation if the number Ubisoft shared were actually true. But it would look odd I think.

The court had to get RoaringKitty from the GameStop meme because his actions caused an irrational price jump and almost got it as market manipulation just because he heavily promoted his desire for the stock. How much more would happen if Ubisoft who owns its own stock would attempt even 1/10th of that would be received by the authorities. “Oh look, our stock is jumping 10% today, I wonder what will happen tomorrow *wink *wink

 

[Woopah]

The court had to get RoaringKitty from the GameStop meme because his actions caused an irrational price jump and almost got it as market manipulation just because he heavily promoted his desire for the stock. How much more would happen if Ubisoft who owns its own stock would attempt even 1/10th of that would be received by the authorities. “Oh look, our stock is jumping 10% today, I wonder what will happen tomorrow *wink *wink

If Ubisoft was specifically telling people to buy their stock then yeah, it would be manipulation.

But if Ubisoft wants to give an update everytime AC:S hits another million milestone in players, then that would be allowed.

 

[Baemono]

If this game was a smash hit they would be screaming about it on all their social media accounts, especially since the survival of the company as an independent organization seems to be riding on heavily on it

They did, twice.

Nobody's tweeting about revenue, a metric the general public don't understand.