The game is gonna sell well despite what it looks like.
DA:I was BioWare's best selling and fastest selling game and ended on a huge cliffhanger after probably the best writing (Trespasser DLC) since Baldur's Gate 2 and KOTOR. So many people will want to see where the story goes.
The writing team is the same since Origins.
But the rest looks pretty bad.
Many - like me - will still buy it though because we are invested in the story. So yeah.
I am just bummed because we waited 10 years.
also: Dragon Age has always been "woke" aka "the message" so that won't hurt it either sales wise
I think the cultural environment it is launching in now is very different to 10 years ago tho. It certainly had things we now associate with being "woke" but it handled them more tactfully and naturally, less full force.
10 years ago was "pre maga" in the most important (US) market, now maga has completed its take over of the entire Republican Party and made the cultural touchstones that are now front and centre in valeguard a rallying cry (in an election year) and trained MAGA to reflexively reject them. That is a large audience who would have in the past probably have played it (well in its less in your face incarnation), who now mostly will reject it.
This rejection also has spread beyond the US as this stuff has been moved further front and center in the games produced. I'm center left in the UK and I'm finding it very tiring/too much. I don't take issue with the intent of DEI, but with its usual poor implementation. Principally because the intent of the studios is normally (tho not always) disengenous tickboxing, which then is glaringly obvious, but also because the writers are usually not talented enough to weave those things in properly and not make it hamfisted, disengenous slop. It's also often paired with the "E" for equity in hiring practices, where the focus is equity of outcome instead of equity of opportunity, which can result in some pretty shit hires (like you "the rest of it looks pretty bad", this is likely a big reason why. So if it looks like DEI tickbox game, there's a good chance it will suffer in multiple departments too, and will lack the quality of a good game. I'm still willing to give stuff a shot tho, as I too enjoyed the previous ones and want to see where it goes, tho I'm pretty pissed off at the omission of blood magic.
But yeah, if that's my own view, i often wonder just how poor the sentiment must be from the many to the right of myself.
The other big difference between now and 10 years ago is social media has changed a lot. A few years ago, accounts who pushed back against "the message" would have been shadow banned or just outright banned. But they thrive now, on X in particular, even Zuck has also changed tack recently too, meanwhile the influence of the traditional game journalism sites has significantly waned. That shift will hurt sales, to what degree I've no idea.
But like I say, it doesn't need to be a catastrophic failure to be a flop for BioWare, it also likely needs to be their most successful game to date to be considered a success at all, as budgets have also grown significantly in the last decade, if it pushes the same numbers as inquisition (6mil units) itll likely be considered a flop.