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Gafia 3 [Mafia] | Welcome to Lynchwood Acres
- Thread starter Ourobolus
- Start date
flatearthpandas
Member
Adding to Faddy's awkward day one, he has a pretty strange vote on acohrs. "You're scum because you don't read me as scum"? Safe scum vote on a team mate. Quickly abandoned with equally strange reasoning as acohrs became viable lynch candidate and transferred over to ensure the ml.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Retweeted.
We would have had two confirmed town if they had claimed to be lovers.
Alas
flatearthpandas
Member
We can put to bed all stupid theories about poison being fake. I tend to believe Bronx is indeed poison doctor and is definitely not scum. Almost definitely town. Poison can still be scum or neutral. I would lean neutral at this point but it don't matter.
Grats, Bronx. Put that trust to good use
Grats, Bronx. Put that trust to good use
This still isn't true. There exists worlds in which the only two liars there are Bronx and Stanley. They are scum mates, hold off on poisoning night 1, claim day 2 to be poisoned for Stan and Bronx claim as doctor. Day 2 rolls around Stan has been "cured" and scum now actually poisons nin with their first (hell possibly even only) poison. Single use poison would fit best with this theory given that it would depend on a high level of confidence that there won't be a poison doctor counter claim.
Regardless nin flipping town is in no way a hard, 100% verification of Bronx. Bronx is scum poisoner or poison doctor. Stanley is scum and was poisoned (with a neutral poisoner which means Bronx is PD and cleared), scum and not poisoned, or town and poisoned.
Was anyone poisoned last night? An additional poison victim makes me shade away from the convoluted set up with single use scum poisoner and into neutral poisoner, which would clear Bronx.
Nin and Vere not claiming was stupid. They could have avoided that double lynch.
Scum killed LP. The question here is why? Was he switched too? He wasn't in my radar at all. Will have to reread him to look for something.
Also, I received a message too. The sender confirmed that he had send one to Blarg and to Splinter but not much. Not even a read list!!!! You did that for Splinter at least!!!!
Scum killed LP. The question here is why? Was he switched too? He wasn't in my radar at all. Will have to reread him to look for something.
Also, I received a message too. The sender confirmed that he had send one to Blarg and to Splinter but not much. Not even a read list!!!! You did that for Splinter at least!!!!
flatearthpandas
Member
As you say, this is convoluted as all hell. If no one claims poison it becomes remotely feasible but still very unlikely and I really don't see the value in even bringing it up until that happens. I certainly won't be entertaining a Bronx lynch anytime soon regardless. Certainly not while faddy and acohrs are both alive.
flatearthpandas
Member
Same goes for switch talk. Why are we talking switchers?? What evidence do we have for this? Because you couldn't guess the scum kill? If we could guess all the scum kills that would be amazing and an easy victory for us.
Let me guess, you need to put exclamation marks in every post?
The benefit in bringing it up is so that the idea is out there. Otherwise, if that situation is the game state we are in, it becomes an auto loss in an endgame scenario where you've cleared Bronx and he is the last scum. I agree lynching Bronx today is not ever the play. But locking yourself into lynching Bronx not being the play for the rest of the game can directly lead to a loss.
flatearthpandas
Member
If no one gets poisoned for the rest of the game I would hope someone would start asking questions but fair enough, the idea is out there. Let's shelve it for now and start lynching scum. Blarg is town mvp so far.
I was just talking thinking about a theory that Splinter said, where Kalor died by a switch with Bronx.
No condition. Just a message (a very lazy message) like Splinter said day 2. Unless the condition has a delay I think we are talking about 2 different roles.
flatearthpandas
Member
Same logic applies though, I just wasn't as active yesterday. Being surprised by the nk in no way indicates a switcher. It's not even theorizing, it's just useless or some kind of soft claim at worst.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Can we please lynch CCS or Acorn today
Seriously, they've managed to skate past two lynches between the both of them. I think looking at the end day votes yesterday will be helpful
Brb
Seriously, they've managed to skate past two lynches between the both of them. I think looking at the end day votes yesterday will be helpful
Brb
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Vere vs Acorn started to get traction with TWE's vote on vere. Before that he had two votes and no real threat. TWE votes him, Swamped votes TWE, Sorian votes on the Vere train. Choo choo motherfuckers, let's get this rolling.
Swamped suddenly and without warning "decides" to vote Vere. Burb deflects some heat from TWE and CCS wants to lynch me, but decided on Vere. This in particular screams "I want to bus a townie but that ain't happening so let's protect my teammate at least."
Vere and Nin, our now dead lovers and confirmed town, do fuck all to verify each other. Why? We'll never know.
Splinter refuses to move his vote and gives no justification as to why he is a better lynch candidate than Acorn. Aggressive, makes me question splinter's motives, but then again, he was one Vere for a while so it makes me feel as though he's misinformed town.
Faddy unvotes because...he doesn't like who else is on the train with him for Acorn? Wat? He then votes for Vere. Burb then joins the Vere train.
Gorlak votes Vere to avoid a tie and Bronx decides on Acorn. Sorian continues to prod people into voting for Vere over Acorn. Scum mates, or is that too obvious?
So....
Faddy, Swamped, Burb, TWE, CCS. Explain thyselves pls
Swamped suddenly and without warning "decides" to vote Vere. Burb deflects some heat from TWE and CCS wants to lynch me, but decided on Vere. This in particular screams "I want to bus a townie but that ain't happening so let's protect my teammate at least."
Vere and Nin, our now dead lovers and confirmed town, do fuck all to verify each other. Why? We'll never know.
Splinter refuses to move his vote and gives no justification as to why he is a better lynch candidate than Acorn. Aggressive, makes me question splinter's motives, but then again, he was one Vere for a while so it makes me feel as though he's misinformed town.
Faddy unvotes because...he doesn't like who else is on the train with him for Acorn? Wat? He then votes for Vere. Burb then joins the Vere train.
Gorlak votes Vere to avoid a tie and Bronx decides on Acorn. Sorian continues to prod people into voting for Vere over Acorn. Scum mates, or is that too obvious?
So....
Faddy, Swamped, Burb, TWE, CCS. Explain thyselves pls
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Burb, even though you were not on the Vere train, your ability to jump on a non candidate and then deflect your motives has not gone unnoticed. Hence why I would like to hear from you.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Wait, shit. You were. Whatever. My bad. I wanna hear from you anyway.
We can beat it into the ground and I guess I can see why Crab didn't bother but Vere and nin had 0 reason to not claim, that's me throwing my cooled down piss for after two days though. I think we need to talk about when and how to claim as pressured town. Also the absolute negligence in not self pres voting when you are protecting two bodies instead of one.
That out of the way. It's rare that town iswrong about all of their early predictions. At this point, we're sitting on Swamped, CCS, and Acohrs from early game. We can't just lynch down that list though as things are going. Blarg was scum, we didn't get him on lynch but he did at least play day 1. There must be some connections somewhere. As an aside, Kawl jumping on conspiracy theories so quick is weird. I agree that without a poison claim today, Bronx could just be full of shit so defending against the "Bronx is 100% clear" theory is fine but he talked on the point yesterday too.
That out of the way. It's rare that town iswrong about all of their early predictions. At this point, we're sitting on Swamped, CCS, and Acohrs from early game. We can't just lynch down that list though as things are going. Blarg was scum, we didn't get him on lynch but he did at least play day 1. There must be some connections somewhere. As an aside, Kawl jumping on conspiracy theories so quick is weird. I agree that without a poison claim today, Bronx could just be full of shit so defending against the "Bronx is 100% clear" theory is fine but he talked on the point yesterday too.
It was getting apparent that TWE was not going to be lynched. Between Verelios and Acohrs I felt more uncertain with Verelios, and I figured that his flip would give us more insight on Day 2 voting sheaningans. And there was some push from Splinter for TWE voters to take a side on the Verelios v Acohrs vote, so I did just that.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
I readed that 3 times and still I'm not sure that I understand it.
Are you saying that we shouldn't lynch Swamped, CCS and Acohrs because our reads have been wrong so far so they can't be scum?
Post 2633, Gorlak votes for acohrs
Post 2635, CCS votes for FEP
Acohrs 5
Worthy 3
Verelios 2
Post 2643, Swamped votes for Worthy
Acohrs 5
Worthy 4
Verelios 2
Post 2645, Worthy votes for Verelios*
Post 2648, Sorian votes for Verelios
Acohrs 5
Verelios 4
Worthy 4
Post 2651, Swamped votes for Verelios
Acohrs 5
Verelios 5
Worthy 3
Seems quite likely that Swamped was protecting acohrs. Neither of her votes are even explained at the time of making them. I remember she was on Blarg before his modkill and had talked about Verelios earlier in the day. I don't remember her mentioning TWE much (not checking now it's late) so I think it's especially damning that she voted there first.
Also worth noting that Worthy could have voted acohrs to protect himself but chose Verelios instead. Not as certain a lead as Swamped as he did at least explain his scumread on Vere, but worth considering if Acohrs flips scum.
If Acohrs is indeed scum then that vote is a gold mine, can probably clear WAMD as well, haven't read further than that just yet (also WAMD pointed out Swamped's votes, hadn't noticed before then).
Post 2635, CCS votes for FEP
Acohrs 5
Worthy 3
Verelios 2
Post 2643, Swamped votes for Worthy
Acohrs 5
Worthy 4
Verelios 2
Post 2645, Worthy votes for Verelios*
Post 2648, Sorian votes for Verelios
Acohrs 5
Verelios 4
Worthy 4
Post 2651, Swamped votes for Verelios
Acohrs 5
Verelios 5
Worthy 3
Seems quite likely that Swamped was protecting acohrs. Neither of her votes are even explained at the time of making them. I remember she was on Blarg before his modkill and had talked about Verelios earlier in the day. I don't remember her mentioning TWE much (not checking now it's late) so I think it's especially damning that she voted there first.
Also worth noting that Worthy could have voted acohrs to protect himself but chose Verelios instead. Not as certain a lead as Swamped as he did at least explain his scumread on Vere, but worth considering if Acohrs flips scum.
If Acohrs is indeed scum then that vote is a gold mine, can probably clear WAMD as well, haven't read further than that just yet (also WAMD pointed out Swamped's votes, hadn't noticed before then).
No, I'm saying there is likely scum in there because between scum bussing and just the player pool in general, I doubt we were completely on the wrong track, I just don't want to sit here and treat it like a check list though,
Ok. I just missunderstood. Who do you think is more likely scum in there?
For me it's acohrs. I'm still scum leaning on CCS. I townreaded Swamped, but that read keep getting weaker.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
I still don't like the way Acorn skirted death either
Someone has been saving him this whole game. Not saying names, but if the shoe fits...
Someone has been saving him this whole game. Not saying names, but if the shoe fits...
I think just Vere had a slight scum read. Here are LP reads:
Could there be something there? Most of them are the same names that seem to be in every list so I'm not so sure if that was what prompted to kill him.
If you have some idea you should share it. Any opinion is good at this point.
I don't like the really low activity at this point. There are several players who haven't posted since day start. Even worse, there are several players who have barely posted at all. This is a 48hs phase. People needs to start posting and sharing thoughts now.
Sure. I was on my phone from 3.30-4.30pm, hence no large explanations. (Also, it is a pain to type highlights while walking...)
Tbh, I didn't really scum-read TWE, Vere or acorns. My town-read of Acorns was the strongest out of the lot though. So why would I vote for him? I would have rather lynched Splinter as he was my next choice after Blarg. Not sure why he evaded my question about his scum-read of Burb on D2. He made a bigger deal out of some "connection" between me and Verelios from freaking D1. Basically his explanations just seem like he's trying to find some arbitrary reason to lynch me.
Anyway, between TWE and Vere, I thought Vere was a better choice because he had more interactions with players. I was vacillating between the two based on other people's explanations. And I was more convinced by Vere arguments. But none of those three would have been my top choices.
Nope I was truly town-reading him. It's likely I'm just a terrible player because everyone and their grandmothers scum-read him. But I felt pretty good about him after D1. He just seems to be playing really honestly.
Now this is interesting. FEP has been on him since the he joined the game. It is now D4 and he still votes for him. I kind of trust gut reads like this.
CCS - what is your latest read of Scorn?
Also, can someone summarize arguments for an Acohrs lynch? (And no, I will NOT accept "oh he's been on the chopping block for a while and never gets lynched" because honestly that argument applies to me too and I am town)
For now
VOTE: *Splinter
I mentioned on D1 that I would have good reads of Kyan, Dragonz and Splinter after D3. Well, Kyan and Dragonz lean town whereas Splinter leans scum (can't wait to see how wrong I am about these after the game ends XD).
Other bonus reads: Sorian is town, Gorlak is town, CCS is town, Stan is scum.
I don't trust Kawl...I want to read him over.
Do you think FEP has any info to make you think he may be right about scum Acohrs?
I don't know how the rest think but I'm scumreading Acohrs because he started really aggresive (more than his usual) but later on he kinda dissapeared. Really few actual posts. Several coasting post to make a presence. Also his read list was almost opposite of my own list and really weak (he listed Splinter has scum because he voted townies in the first 2 days but not Faddy who did the same for example).
What makes you town read Kyan and Dragonz? I kinda agree with Kyan but I'm not so sure about Dragonz (I have her as null/slighty scum).
Also why do you think Stan is scum?
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
My only thought is the pattern in which Acorn has been skirting death and evading a lynch by having others cover for him. I will have to go back and read D1 and D2 end votes but I distinctly remember he was on people's radar back then, too.
It just strikes me as odd. Now I'm not saying scum would be so obvious as to protect him EVERY time, but I think the possibility that Acorn is working with a team to shift town opinion onto someone else at the last minute is very likely.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
If that's your reasoning, what makes you read Acorn as town? Cause I'm not seeing it at all.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Swamped I reread your post a second time and there are a few things that I don't get. Not gonna quote cause I'm on mobile so..
If you were convinced the most by Vere then why did you vote for him? Convinced that he was town, you mean?
Also why were you watching the voting patterns of other so closely, as you said? Something about public opinion? This just screams wanting to be on the right side of history when he flipped town.
If you were convinced the most by Vere then why did you vote for him? Convinced that he was town, you mean?
Also why were you watching the voting patterns of other so closely, as you said? Something about public opinion? This just screams wanting to be on the right side of history when he flipped town.
I just think his posting style feels too honest. I've never played with him before, but he makes a lot of mistakes and faux pas, and i think scum would be more careful posting. I get the concerns about coasting though.
I was more convinced by the arguments for lynching Vere.
I don't understand your second question. What do you mean by watching voting patterns?
Fran thanks for your post and will reply tomorrow.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
You said something in your post about going between the two based on the reactions of others. And why lynch Vere if you felt he had "better interactions"?
TheWorthyEdge
Member
VOTE: Swamped
Why would you vote for Vere if I was the more obvious scum target?
Why would you vote for Vere if I was the more obvious scum target?
TheWorthyEdge
Member
Just got home from the Grand Canyon.
I was just about to switch my vote onto acorhs after that string of pictures by Nin but time was up.
All of my "theories" are thrown out the window. I believe Bronx 100% now. He's the poison doctor so there's no reason to prod at that anymore.
WhereAreMyDragons. Town. I actually fully believe that. The ONLY person I actually think is town. But I've been fucking WROOOOONG so...
fucking incredible
I was just about to switch my vote onto acorhs after that string of pictures by Nin but time was up.
All of my "theories" are thrown out the window. I believe Bronx 100% now. He's the poison doctor so there's no reason to prod at that anymore.
WhereAreMyDragons. Town. I actually fully believe that. The ONLY person I actually think is town. But I've been fucking WROOOOONG so...
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
i would like to add something useful, but i feel like my read on this game hasn't changed at all.
vote: Acohrs
vote: Acohrs
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
I mean, anything Is better than nothing
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
DAY 4 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
acohrs (2)
flatearthpandas 2750
StanleyPalmtree 2793
*Splinter (1)
Swamped 2783
Swamped (1)
TheWorthyEdge 2791
No active vote for Day 4: *Splinter, acohrs, Bronx-Man, Burbeting, CCS, Faddy, franconp, Gorlak, Kawl_USC, Kyanrute, Sorian, WhereAreMahDragonz
Day 4 ends:
Automated vote tally here
9 votes for majority
acohrs (2)
flatearthpandas 2750
StanleyPalmtree 2793
*Splinter (1)
Swamped 2783
Swamped (1)
TheWorthyEdge 2791
No active vote for Day 4: *Splinter, acohrs, Bronx-Man, Burbeting, CCS, Faddy, franconp, Gorlak, Kawl_USC, Kyanrute, Sorian, WhereAreMahDragonz
Day 4 ends:
Automated vote tally here
9 votes for majority
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
What in particular would have prompted your vote change, had you made it?
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Honestly, the biggest thing is that scum acohrs cares more. He posts more, fights harder in his own defence and tries to be more involved in discussions.
Which arguments?
You stake your reputation on this every game, and you're usually wrong.