StoOgE,
I just did a quick checkout of some scenes in Kingdom of Heaven and Black Hawk Down.
KoH : Many scenes are in the range of 20-25 Mb/s, while the more intense scenes are 26-30. A couple of peaks I saw were around 32 Mb/s.
BHD : This was a little higher on average, generally averaging 25-29 Mb/s, with the occasional peak around 31 Mb/s.
In other words, there ain't no way VC-1 is even close to 3 times as efficient as MPEG2. If that were the case, 8-9 Mb/s titles would look like Kingdom of Heaven and Black Hawk Down.
Ummm ... no
There are 1 of 3 possibilities here:
1) You are misinformed.
2) The info you read is complete bullshit.
3) That stat is based on a very old MPEG2 encoding algorithm, and was only stated as a PR move.
As with all of the codecs, MPEG2 has improved over the years. If anything, MPEG2 has had the most improvements due simply to how long people have been working at it, and the fact it was one of the early encoding methods (we're better at it now; the designers of the newer codecs were able to use 'lessons learned' right from the start).
Based on this, I'm thinking DarkJediKnight's figure is a lot closer to reality (at least of the current MPEG2 encoder). He stated that VC-1 is around 1.5x as efficient.
That would make these encodes (MPEG2 25-27 Mb/s average) in the neighborhood of 16-18 Mb/s. That probably is reasonable, if not a bit low for top tier transfers (I haven't seen too many VC-1 bitrate measurements to know what the similar quality transfers are hitting).
With this in mind, if the new AVC codec Sony was talking about is indeed 2x MPEG2 in efficiency ... then it really is more efficient than VC-1 as well ... and by a relatively significant amount (approximately 33%). Granted, I'd like to see further info on this before making that assumption.