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I'm getting PS3 Deja vu, Sony once more a victim of their success?

ANIMAL1975

Member
I was scrolling through Twitter earlier (refuse to call it X) and saw a games journalist had posted a tweet saying something to the effect of, it's sad that Sony are pretending that everything is fine and they're having huge success when they've cancelled all these games after the colossal failure Concord was. (Sadly, I can't find it now.)

My first thought having read this was, this is PS3 all over again. I'm sure the older members of GAF like myself will remember all the arrogant Sony memes, back when Sony thought flat screen TV's wouldn't take off and their CRT business was going to boom, when they turned down manufacturing Apple devices in favour of Vaio, when they thought WalkMan was still the future despite iPod killing it. There was a lot of mistakes made. And my second thought was that fight between Bane and Batman in the Dark Knight Rises.

tenor.gif


And when you lack decent competition or you lead by such a margin, failure can very easily come with stupidity. Somehow, Shawn Layden and Shuhei Yoshida were replaced by Jim Ryan and Herman Hulst (who somehow got a promotion?) and there was a shift under their leadership to Games as a Service, which let's be fair, is lightning in a bottle. Complacency has set in and SIE leadership thought their shit didn't stink and that anything they fart out will be successful. I'm a huge PlayStation fan, always have been. It's my platform of choice and my only console that I own, but god fucking damn it, why does this feel like the kind of arrogance that led the PS3 to be such as disaster? When you've contributed to the destruction of a globally watched and loved gaming event like E3 to announce major things in blog posts, you're really doing an Apple. And I personally don't like this myself. At the brink of an epic failure, Sony knuckled down and remembered the core values which are that great games sell consoles. And the success train has been going since, but I'm pretty sure there have been some pretty nasty bumps on that track recently.

Cancelling these titles is going to make Sony likely lean further into exclusive game deals to bolster their line up with these titles now missing and Sony need to learn some huge lessons if they're going to continue to pursue this dream of being a dominant leader in the GaaS sector. Ignoring your fan feedback and every red flag that would indicate this game is dead on arrival *cough cough Concord* probably is one of them. I never understood the push for GaaS to be quite honest with you, sure they can be profitable, but the investment required to see it is immense. God knows how many millions of dollars have been pissed away, many staff will be made redundant and so much time wasted that you wonder what they could have done, had the developers been able to make their own games. Personally, I prefer PlayStation from the mid 2010's. Whether you loved or hated E3, for me it was always a great event to meet up with friends and Sony had this sort of formula where you had trailers for games just about to come out, some in development and some announcements for games some way down the line. It created a nice timeline and I could plan accordingly. Now we can't even guarantee a decent yearly show or even a regular State of Play and in many cases a State of Play even worth watching as it's normally 20 minutes of shovel before for the thing we all came for.

And the sad fact is, nobody forced them to go this direction. It was their decision. But PSVR2 has been a huge failure, their GaaS venture so far has to be one of the worst on record. I hope FairGame$ and Marathon make some sort of dint because personally I think FG looks shit and Bungie clearly lost the magic a long time ago. It's just another case of suffering from success and hopefully some great lessons are learnt.

I just hope this deja vu isn't going to unfold over the next few years into a disastrous PS6 launch...
Nothing to do with PS3, reread what you posted _ they're all hardware related decisions (or bad desicions thats another conversation), and in this generation the failures are all software related (i give you the hardware pricing)....when you talk the games PS3 gen was funtastic.
 

Perrott

Member
I don’t see it as Deja vu. I see it as them panicking by making dumb moves after MS bought Activision and they thought they would lose COD.
The live-service strategy predates the Activision Blizzard acquisition by a year or several, depending on how you look at it:
  • Helldivers II greenlit in 2016. (Yoshida)
  • Concord and Horizon Online greenlit in 2018. (Layden)
  • Predator: Hunting Grounds picked-up by Sony in 2018. (Layden)
  • Destruction AllStars greenlit by 2019. (Layden)
  • The Last Of Us Online turned into a standalone, live-service release in 2019. (Layden)
  • Attempted takeover of Leyou Technologies, owners of Digital Extremes (Warframe), which I imagine would've filled a similar advisory role to SIE's live-service endeavors and Bungie ended up doing.
  • Deviation Games established, partnership signed in June 2020. (Hulst)
  • London Studio re-structured, pivoting to a live-service project by late 2020. (Hulst)
  • Bend Studio re-structured, pivoting to a live-service project by early 2021. (Hulst)
  • Haven Studios established, partnership signed in March 2021. (Hulst)
  • Insomniac Games already hiring project leads for Marvel's Spider-Man: The Great Web as early as spring 2021. (Hulst)
  • Twisted Metal live-service already in development at Lucid Games by 2021, then transfered to Firesprite in late 2021. (Hulst)
  • Microsoft to acquire Activision Blizzard King, announced mid-January 2022.
  • Bungie deal signed in late January 2022, after nearly two years of talks behind the scenes. (Ryan/Hulst)
The live-service inititive was not a reactionary effort at all, although it has failed as if it was.
 
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Wulfer

Member
I think they’re banking on the coming collapse of Xbox in 2025 to carry them for the next couple of years.

Microsoft games coming to PlayStation en-masse in 2025 will see people flock to PS5 and PC instead.
There's no en-masse and MS isn't hurting for money. MS can release 5 games on the PS5 and call it a day for this generation if they want too! Why would they cheapen their games? Here's a reality check they won't! You'll get Flight Sim 69 or 79 dollars (or probably higher because they can) just like the rest of us.
 
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The live-service strategy predates the Activision Blizzard acquisition by a year or several, depending on how you look at it:
  • Helldivers II greenlit in 2016. (Yoshida)
  • Concord and Horizon Online greenlit in 2018. (Layden)
  • Predator: Hunting Grounds picked-up by Sony in 2018. (Layden)
  • Destruction AllStars greenlit by 2019. (Layden)
  • The Last Of Us Online turned into a standalone, live-service release in 2019. (Layden)
  • Attempted takeover of Leyou Technologies, owners of Digital Extremes (Warframe), which I imagine would've filled a similar advisory role to SIE's live-service endeavors and Bungie ended up doing.
  • Deviation Games established, partnership signed in June 2020. (Hulst)
  • London Studio re-structured, pivoting to a live-service project by late 2020. (Hulst)
  • Bend Studio re-structured, pivoting to a live-service project by early 2021. (Hulst)
  • Haven Studios established, partnership signed in March 2021. (Hulst)
  • Insomniac Games already hiring project leads for Marvel's Spider-Man: The Great Web as early as spring 2021. (Hulst)
  • Twisted Metal live-service already in development at Lucid Games by 2021, then transfered to Firesprite in late 2021. (Hulst)
  • Microsoft to acquire Activision Blizzard King, announced mid-January 2022.
  • Bungie deal signed in late January 2022, after nearly two years of talks behind the scenes. (Ryan/Hulst)
The live-service inititive was not a reactionary effort at all, although it has failed as if it was.
I see what you mean but I still believe most of it was started as a reactionary move to MS buying out publishers and studios. Afterall, it's not like ABK was the only major acquisition MS started with. We are forgetting they also acquired Bethesda who was a major Sony partner in 2020. Sony started dipping their toes in live service games like every other major publisher after the success of Fortnite. What is different here is that they didn't push the production of these live service games heavily to their first party studios en-masse till right around the purchase of Bethesda and ABK. Prior to those acquisitions Sony was okay partnering with other studios to create live service successes, it wasn't until the gobbling up of Bethesda, ABK, and other studios that we started seeing them panic and push live service to even their first party studios. Remember Factions 2 wasn't even supposed to be live service originally, it had more modest scope, it wasn't till later that it expanded to becoming a massive live service game that even ND themselves couldn't handle.
 
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EN250

Member
I wager we're going to see Nishino step up and take over from him soon. Hulst's "brilliant" moves have proven to be extremely short-sighted, a bust, arguably nepotistic, and had a damaging impact on the productivity of first party studios. He needs to go.
that suit is a greedy penny pincher too, idiot probably thinks day and date on PC is a good business decision because more money upfront, even though they have current gen Xbone case as a testimony of fumbling your business
 

Killer8

Member
Nowhere close to PS3. Financially Sony continue to do very well compared to the fiscal black hole that was the seventh gen (they lost so, so much money on the PS3 that they basically erased all of their PS1 and 2 profits).

image-(162).png


Sony have been swimming in so much money lately that I doubt even failures like Concord will register as much more than a blip on the chart. I'd bet the surprise success of Helldivers 2 more than balanced it out anyway.

The mismanagement of their live service venture will financially be obfuscated by the year-to-year operational costs of the the studios making them ie. don't expect to see some sudden big drop in the charts. The problem is that they've wasted years of those studios time, who now will need excess years to get back to producing what they're best at. Sony being willing to admit they were on the wrong path with live service, jettisoning years of work and sunk costing the hundreds of millions invested so far, shows the opposite of arrogance.

In terms of how that impacts the release calendar, I would guess not drastically in the short term. As people have pointed out in the many, many live service threads about Sony, they are investing as much as ever into single player. Live service just represented an extra investment. It's not like they put all the eggs into the GaaS basket.

sUrbpiu.jpeg


Will this mean that we end up with more external development collaborations and moneyhat deals? Probably. However, that didn't exactly hurt last year. Helldivers 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Stellar Blade, Silent Hill 2 and Rise of the Ronin were all produced by such circumstances. Not to mention all the defacto console exclusives like Black Myth which they keep getting because of a) total incompetence by Xbox and b) Switch not being strong enough (yet) to run those games.

Xbox's own incompetence has been so much worse this generation that it has helped prop up Sony. It may sound like whataboutism to bring up Xbox in the Sony analysis thread, but Xbox's situation is so bad in comparison that their games are making their way over to PlayStation now. "PS5 is an Xbox" has become a true meme. Imagine being so dominant that Sony now even have the competition making the games for them.
 

AGRacing

Member
Sony had the 2006 launch completely fixed by 2009. Uncharted 2 was launched in October after the slim PS3 was rolled out at $299 USD. The system was excellent overall and had an incredible exclusive software lineup.

The is year will be the end of year 5 for PS5. If you love Insomniac I guess this generation is great. I know some fans are just absolutely thrilled with the output so far. For me, this is no PS3 and it doesn’t look like it ever will be.

Hopefully GTA6 is great. It’s about 60% of the reason I have one at this point.
 
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phant0m

Member
Sony had the 2006 launch completely fixed by 2009. Uncharted 2 was launched in October after the slim PS3 was rolled out at $299 USD. The system was excellent overall and had an incredible exclusive software lineup.

The is year will be the end of year 5 for PS5. If you love Insomniac I guess this generation is great. I know some fans are just absolutely thrilled with the output so far. For me, this is no PS3 and it doesn’t look like it ever will be.

Hopefully GTA6 is great. It’s about 60% of the reason I have one at this point.
PS3’s 1st party output was 100x better than PS5

By the end of its lifecycle, PS3 had:
  • 2 Killzone games
  • 3 Uncharted games
  • 3 Resistance games
  • 4(!) Ratchet & Clank games plus a spinoff and remaster collection
  • TLOU1
  • MAG
  • 2 GoW games
  • 2 Infamous games
  • 2 full Gran Turismo games
  • 3 MotorStorm games
  • 3 LBP games
We’re halfway into PS5’s life now and we got:

  • 0 Killzone games
  • 0 resistance games
  • 1 R&C game
  • 2 TLOU remasters
  • 1 Horizon game and 1 remaster
  • 1 GoW game
  • 0 infamous games
  • 1 GT game
  • 0 MotorStorm games
  • 1.5 Spider-man games
  • Astro Bot
That doesn’t even count any of their IP that died with PS2 (Jak & Daxter, SOCOM, Syphon Filter, etc)
 
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AGRacing

Member
PS3’s 1st party output was 100x better than PS5

By the end of its lifecycle, PS3 had:
  • 2 Killzone games
  • 3 Uncharted games
  • 3 Resistance games
  • 4(!) Ratchet & Clank games plus a spinoff and remaster collection
  • TLOU1
  • MAG
  • 2 GoW games
  • 2 Infamous games
  • 2 full Gran Turismo games
  • 3 MotorStorm games
  • 3 LBP games
We’re halfway into PS5’s life now and we got:

  • 0 Killzone games
  • 0 resistance games
  • 1 R&C game
  • 2 TLOU remasters
  • 1 Horizon game and 1 remaster
  • 1 GoW game
  • 0 infamous games
  • 1 GT game
  • 0 MotorStorm games
  • 1.5 Spider-man games
That doesn’t even count any of their IP that died with PS2 (Jak & Daxter, SOCOM, Syphon Filter, etc)
Agree 100%
And you’re being generous calling GOW and GT7 full credit when they also released on PS4 ;)
 
Arrogance prior to being humbled is the only commonality between the PS3 and PS5 generations. The landscape of the industry and Sony's position in it is much different. PS3 era Sony came off the most dominant console of all time and made huge blunders in respect to their whole platform. They needed the XBone level disaster to even compete, and to learn from their mistakes with Cell. PS5 era Sony is guilty of chasing trends and over-reliant on AAA unsustainable development costs. Playstation as a platform is in a better position than it's ever been in, and thankfully it seems the GAAS gold rush is over. There will be damage over the next few years due to the shifted priorities, but I'm glad they're stopping the bleeding early.
 
I don’t see it as Deja vu. I see it as them panicking by making dumb moves after MS bought Activision and they thought they would lose COD. The PS3 gen was pure arrogance but this gen they were fueled by fear.

They rushed too quickly into GAAS and devoted too many resources because they thought they were gonna lose their cash cow. I believe they knew making all these GAAS games was a risky move but they did it regardless because they felt it was a matter of survival. Now that it’s abundantly clear that MS was never gonna take COD away from PS, and in fact they need PS5 to maintain COD’s success more than the other way around, Sony’s GAAS push seems even more stupid.


This makes no sense to me since some of those were in development well before there was any hint of Microsoft acquiring Activision. Even if so, their counter was Horizon, Twisted Metal or God of War online? Buying bungie was panic.
 

jakinov

Member
I see what you mean but I still believe most of it was started as a reactionary move to MS buying out publishers and studios. Afterall, it's not like ABK was the only major acquisition MS started with. We are forgetting they also acquired Bethesda who was a major Sony partner in 2020. Sony started dipping their toes in live service games like every other major publisher after the success of Fortnite. What is different here is that they didn't push the production of these live service games heavily to their first party studios en-masse till right around the purchase of Bethesda and ABK. Prior to those acquisitions Sony was okay partnering with other studios to create live service successes, it wasn't until the gobbling up of Bethesda, ABK, and other studios that we started seeing them panic and push live service to even their first party studios. Remember Factions 2 wasn't even supposed to be live service originally, it had more modest scope, it wasn't till later that it expanded to becoming a massive live service game that even ND themselves couldn't handle.
Live service games are just extremely attractive and everyone was trying to hop on the train. It'd made sense for Sony to also embrace the trend because they have historically really wanted to grow their games business. Releasing games on PC is a good example of that. Cerny talked about how excited they were that that PS3 was hard to develop for because then their game studios would be ahead of all the competition. Then throughout the PS3/PS4 years they hopped on every trend in order to maximize their revenue from heavy investment in UGC and adding multiplayer to everything (e.g. Uncharted, God of War, Last of Us). They even started adding microtransactions to their games on the PS4. They have historically really been into growing their games business and will hop on every trend and even make decisions detrimental to partners to do so. I don't think Microsoft buying up a bunch of companies that mainly make single player games and specifically mainly RPGs is why they want to be in GaaS.

The other attractive part to live-service games which even Layden brought up recently is decrease in volatility to the business. GaaS helps make the individual studios generate more consistent revenue. Most studios are effectively running in the red while they develop games, then they release the game and then get a big spike of revenue that may or may not be good enough. By having each studio business have its own live service games you flatten those revenue spikes and you have regular money that keeps the lights on. This is the justification that many publishers and game studios actually use when they justify investing in GaaS.

Sony started dipping their toes in live service games like every other major publisher after the success of Fortnite.
It wasn't Fortnite that started the interest in GaaS. It was League of Legends that made most the big publishers invest in GaaS. League of Legends made over $100M/year around 2011, over $600M/year around 2013 and then over $1B/year in 2014. Leading to EA making a MOBA, Ubisoft making a MOBA, WB making a MOBA, Activision Blizzard making a MOBA and even Valve making a MOBA. Xbox around that time also made Fable Legends (inspired by LoL). A bunch of smaller companies also started making MOBAs. There's a bunch of other GaaS that wasn't as directly LoL inspired too like Overwatch, Rainbow Six Siege and GTA Online bringing in big revenue. You had games like CS:GO and Diablo 3 being retrofitted to be GaaS and they exploded. You had these smaller GaaS games as well like For Honor, Heartstone, Warframe, Paladins, Paragon, Smite, Lawbreakers, etc where some failed and some are still alive making the company decent revenue today. All of this before Fortnite came out. Don't get me wrong, that Fortnite did have a significant impact that probably lead to some of the biggest GaaS games being greenlit but companies were into GaaS for a while before Fortnite.
 
Ok, anti GAAS crowd, I give you a proposition.

Money earned by GAAS games is invested back in GAAS titles.

Money earned by SP games gets invested back in SP games.

Deal??

GAAS investments are here to stay. A company doesn’t take these huge steps lightly.

Not to mention, whole generation is brought up on these games. Sony will look like MUCH bigger fools a few years later if they don’t have GAAS expertise.
 
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