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[Felessan]

There have been countless threads, articles, conversations about the "oversaturated GAAS market".

It's a lie though.

The biggest threat of SP market actually is a GaaS market, which will demolish a lot of SP space when west get to know how to make gaas games properly - can be easily seen by situation in Asia.
Western devs do gaas like it's still 00', games are old-school fashioned, concentrating on classic multiplayer, competitive in majority of cases. They doesn't expand past that, unlike Asia where majority of live services are single or very optional coop games and "live service" part is about steady delivery of content and not actual multiplayer.
When devs will start to do a western oriented PvE coop/solo games, similar to Genshin but made with western audience in mind, SP market will be in real trouble. And then "saturation" will suddenly disappear too.

 

[kruis]

AAA Single Player (SP) games have always been viewed as the relatively safe bet. If you make a bigger budget single player game with some combination of well known IP, open world, critical acclaim...you were almost certain to perform well financially.

The last few years may have put that idea in question...

Avowed
Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
Indiana Jones
Hellblade II
Star War Outlaws
Immortals of Aveum
Alan Wake 2
Final Fantasy Rebirth
Final Fantasy XVI
Marvel Midnight Suns
Avatar The Frontiers of Pandora
Dead Space

That list of games reads like "good bet" titles when they were greenlit and all performed worse than expected. Obviously, there are still a bunch of successful titles in this space. Kingdom Come Deliverance II is already in the red and just sold over 2 million copies. Black Myth Wukong did crazy numbers. Baldurs Gate 3 etc....This is not to suggest we're on a bubble, but I think it's time we start looking at this part of the industry. Does it feel less stable to you?

In my view publishers too often make the wrong decisions. I am a sucker for AAA Single player action adventure games/RPGs but ... I hate 1st person games and I dislike games that are too woke. I'm not too keen on videogames based on existing IPs.

Avowed
Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
Indiana Jones
Immortals of Aveum
Marvel Midnight Suns
Avatar The Frontiers of Pandora

Didn't buy "Dead Space" because I already played and finished the game on PS3.

I did buy these games:

Alan Wake 2
Final Fantasy Rebirth
Final Fantasy XVI
Star War Outlaws

From what I understand AW2, FFR and FFXVI did allright, the games weren't supersellers but they weren't outright sales flops either. SW:Outlaws probably lost Ubisoft money because sales were disappointing while at the same they needed lots of sales just to make up for the costs of the SW license.

 

[mayham2199]

With this amount of games coming out? Yes. In trouble in general though? No. I do see a lot more studios closing till we get to a point where not so many AAA games are coming out.

 

[Gamer_By_Proxy]

neither, its where all the major sony warriors went to

hmm, but on a wokeness scale . . . you can speak your mind or you get banned for even saying pronouns/asmongold/heelvsbabyface

 

[Guilty_AI]

hmm, but on a wokeness scale . . . you can speak your mind or you get banned for even saying pronouns/asmongold/heelvsbabyface

Last i went they were too busy licking sony's balls to care. Guess they'll side with whatever sonys sides with.

 

[Danjin44]

If the games industry wants to grow, they should embrace PAY 2 WIN. Yeah yeah, calm down...

Pay 2 win is one of the most universally despised concepts in gaming. I, like many of you, hissed at it for most of my gaming life. I was wrong. The problem with Pay 2 win has always been in its implementation, not in it's concept. Our favorite movies, TV shows, and books abide by Pay...

www.neogaf.com

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/for-those-interested-in-marathon-would-this-be-a-dealbreaker-for-you.1680824/#post-270124194

 

[Idleyes]

If DEI doesnt die then yes

To this day, I still don’t understand why people are so adamantly against DEI when it actually benefits the majority more than the minority. My company even has a whole department dedicated to it, yet when I look at leadership, it’s overwhelmingly white, white men, white women, white veterans, white folks in wheelchairs, and even white LGBTQ+ individuals. Meanwhile, the actual racial diversity? Practically nonexistent.

I mean I don't have an issue with that, I'm certain they are all qualified for their positions and it's not any of my business, but there is this strange myth that only black people benefit from it. Sure, my argument is purely anecdotal, but I don’t see more than 1% representation of people who look like me in leadership with DEI being in place for well over a decade now. Yet, the way some people complain about DEI, you’d think American jobs were structured like NBA teams, where you might spot a white person with a job here and there across the entire country.

 

[Gonzito]

To this day, I still don’t understand why people are so adamantly against DEI when it actually benefits the majority more than the minority. My company even has a whole department dedicated to it, yet when I look at leadership, it’s overwhelmingly white, white men, white women, white veterans, white folks in wheelchairs, and even white LGBTQ+ individuals. Meanwhile, the actual racial diversity? Practically nonexistent.

I mean I don't have an issue with that, I'm certain they are all qualified for their positions and it's not any of my business, but there is this strange myth that only black people benefit from it. Sure, my argument is purely anecdotal, but I don’t see more than 1% representation of people who look like me in leadership with DEI being in place for well over a decade now. Yet, the way some people complain about DEI, you’d think American jobs were structured like NBA teams, where you might spot a white person with a job here and there across the entire country.

 

[Bert Big Balls]

I've never seen so many of these "is X in trouble?" posts before. The fuck is happening here?

 

[blacktout]

If IconEra can do it, so can we! YES WE CAN!

Nah, one of the things that gives this forum its unique charm is all of the one-note joke posters, like MiB, James Sawyer Ford, and the GOAT GigaBowser.

It makes visiting Gaf feel like watching a classic episode of The Simpsons.

 

[mdkirby]

There’s an equally long if not bigger list of failures of GAAS. The problem studios world wide, and particularly in the west are both spending far far too much money on development and not making games people actually want. They have consistently (either because it’s what they want to do or were convinced by someone it was a good idea) been intentionally making games that aren’t for their core demographics and have been making games that alienate that demographic whilst failing to chase other demographics.

These companies seem to have forgotten the absolute basics of business and are losing billions as a result .

Who are your actual customer?
What do they want?
What don’t they want?
Make what those people want.

Edit, and if making a game, what is the size of the market for that game. Budget accordingly.

 

[Guilty_AI]

If IconEra can do it, so can we! YES WE CAN!

nah, let him stay, he's funny

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

Evolved
Battleborn
Battlefield 2042
Hyperscape
Rocket Arena
The Culling
Multiverse
Paragon
Radical Heights
Avengers
Anthem
Suicide Squad
Lawbreakers
Foamstars
Concord
Knockout City
Skull and Bones
Ghost Recon Breakpoint
The Division 2
Babylon’s Fall
Crucible
The Day Before
Crossfire X
Orcs Must Die! Unchained
Planetside Arena
War of Roses
War of Vikings
Deathgarden
Darkspore
Age of Empires Online
Guardians of Middle Earth
Steel Circus
Infestation: The New Z
Infestation: Battle Royale
Fractured Space
Duelyst
Total War: Elysium
Total War: Arena
Bleeding Edge
Age of Ashes
Vampire Bloodhunt
Chocobo GP
Rumbleverse

Men_in_Boxes are service games in trouble?

 

[HRK69]

I've never seen so many of these "is X in trouble?" posts before. The fuck is happening here?

You are dealing with a bunch of amateurs that lack any form of critical thinking

 

[Brakum]

Yes but only the ones where the people making the decisions are the ones who dont play games. Which is most of them to be fair.

 

[Sintoid]

Too much money to invest, too much bad ideas to develop, to many useless people can hide where's a lot of money

 

[Laptop1991]

Yes for me, average quality generic games with less features than older games of the same genre with far less engagement have resulted in low sales, that cause studio lay offs or closures, that tells me there is a problem, the industry can fix it, but do they want to!.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Car sales have cratered in the USA over the last 10 years to the SUV market.

The Toyota Camry sold 300k units in 2024.
The Honda Civic sold 240k units in 2024.
The Toyota Carolla sold 230k units in 2024.

My snake oil salesman: The car market is really in trouble clown emoji.

When markets shrink over time, they frequently have big sellers during the market downturn.

 

[SJRB]

Cherry-picking buffoonery.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

It is if they keep making shit ones.

 

[Wandering Leopard]

It's been in trouble for a while now, it's what happens when something becomes mainstream and attracts certain types of investment, you end up with:
- formulaic design
- fewer risks
- an attempt to cater to more people, resulting in shallower (gameplay) experiences etc.

And I think the goal and culture for dev teams becomes maximising profit instead of on maximising/polishing the gameplay experience.

However, it doesn't affect all AAA dev studios.

 

[semiconscious]

I've never seen so many of these "is X in trouble?" posts before. The fuck is happening here?

drama queen nation?...

 

[Punished Miku]

AAA in general is in trouble.

 

[Ovek]

People are sick of ugly characters, shit writing and generic ass gameplay that hasn't improved or in most cases got worse since the PS3 era.

Not to mention bugs and fucking post launch "road maps" to fixing the thing.

I know I'm sick of all the absolute shit that comes with gaming in general now and not just single player games.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

No you haven't, i've confirmed this before too when i asked what imm-sims you played and you just named a bunch of gamepass stuff. Go look into successful SP games from the last 5 years you'll see a healthy mix of everything

Actually you'll see nothing but more expensive sequels or new titles with Disney IP attached. There's very little innovation happening in the SP space today because there's no reward for it. SP gamers largely reject innovation. There is no Lethal Company or Among Us or PUBG in the SP space. It's been coasting for over a decade on formula.

Yeah, because they're too entrenched in their comfort zone to even consider investing time into a new game. When you got to level XYZ in a GAAS and has 2736 skins - some likely bought with real money - you become a lot less willing to start a different second-game-job that'll likely impede you from playing the previous one due to time constraints.

They're comfortable with the quality of their preferred GAAS titles but the market clearly demonstrates a willingness for the GAAS consumer to check out new GAAS titles.

Still, none of this is productive because we don't need to bring up GAAS every time we focus on the SP games market.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

People are sick of ugly characters, shit writing and generic ass gameplay that hasn't improved or in most cases got worse since the PS3 era.

Not to mention bugs and fucking post launch "road maps" to fixing the thing.

I know I'm sick of all the absolute shit that comes with gaming in general now and not just single player games.

Agreed.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

In my view publishers too often make the wrong decisions. I am a sucker for AAA Single player action adventure games/RPGs but ... I hate 1st person games and I dislike games that are too woke. I'm not too keen on videogames based on existing IPs.

Avowed
Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
Indiana Jones
Immortals of Aveum
Marvel Midnight Suns
Avatar The Frontiers of Pandora

Didn't buy "Dead Space" because I already played and finished the game on PS3.

I did buy these games:

Alan Wake 2
Final Fantasy Rebirth
Final Fantasy XVI
Star War Outlaws

From what I understand AW2, FFR and FFXVI did allright, the games weren't supersellers but they weren't outright sales flops either. SW:Outlaws probably lost Ubisoft money because sales were disappointing while at the same they needed lots of sales just to make up for the costs of the SW license.

You could absolutely be right. I'm hesitant to buy that argument wholesale once I started paying attention to the failure rate of arena shooters. Every time a new spiritual successor to Quake / Unreal Tournement came out it would flop and the arena shooter stans would say it's because the crosshair was too big, or the jumping felt off. In reality, I think the market just moved on from that formula.

I wonder if younger gamers, who are comprising more and more of the market every year, are slowly shrinking the AAA SP market. The only way to know for sure is to measure the dollars spent in that space over a long enough length of time.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Evolved
Battleborn
Battlefield 2042
Hyperscape
Rocket Arena
The Culling
Multiverse
Paragon
Radical Heights
Avengers
Anthem
Suicide Squad
Lawbreakers
Foamstars
Concord
Knockout City
Skull and Bones
Ghost Recon Breakpoint
The Division 2
Babylon’s Fall
Crucible
The Day Before
Crossfire X
Orcs Must Die! Unchained
Planetside Arena
War of Roses
War of Vikings
Deathgarden
Darkspore
Age of Empires Online
Guardians of Middle Earth
Steel Circus
Infestation: The New Z
Infestation: Battle Royale
Fractured Space
Duelyst
Total War: Elysium
Total War: Arena
Bleeding Edge
Age of Ashes
Vampire Bloodhunt
Chocobo GP
Rumbleverse

Men_in_Boxes are service games in trouble?

My list was comprised of 12 sales disappointments from the last 2 years.
Your list comprised was comprised of 45 sales disappointments from the last 14 years.

If you or I was smart enough to do 4th grade math, we might be able to judge number of failures per year. Alas, we are not, so we must look at longer list like cavemen and grunt while shaking our burning logs in the air.

This is not a compelling way to discuss market trends.

 

[RedC]

The best selling games of 2024 in the US was:

The vast majority are Multiplayer GaaS games.

Make of that what you will

 

[Generic]

Evolved
Battleborn
Battlefield 2042
Hyperscape
Rocket Arena
The Culling
Multiverse
Paragon
Radical Heights
Avengers
Anthem
Suicide Squad
Lawbreakers
Foamstars
Concord
Knockout City
Skull and Bones
Ghost Recon Breakpoint
The Division 2
Babylon’s Fall
Crucible
The Day Before
Crossfire X
Orcs Must Die! Unchained
Planetside Arena
War of Roses
War of Vikings
Deathgarden
Darkspore
Age of Empires Online
Guardians of Middle Earth
Steel Circus
Infestation: The New Z
Infestation: Battle Royale
Fractured Space
Duelyst
Total War: Elysium
Total War: Arena
Bleeding Edge
Age of Ashes
Vampire Bloodhunt
Chocobo GP
Rumbleverse

Men_in_Boxes are service games in trouble?

There are 14 years old games on your list.

 

[Generic]

-GAAS are expensive and the market for it is highly competitive.
-SP doesn't have to be expensive and the market is generally open to new ones.

There's your difference. If you invest high amounts of money in SP slop no one wants, yeah, it'll fail. If you're more careful with your market evaluation and budget, theres a great chance you'll find success.

Same can't be said for GAAS. You can make an excellent game, with innovative ideas, lots of player feedback, and then no one wants to play it because the public you're targeting is busy getting their dailies on fortnite and doesn't even want to try anything else.

To put in another manner:
-SP players are generally more willing to play different things and try new stuff. Natural considering SP games are mostly made to end so they have to constantly look for more.
-GAAS players create comfort zones in their selected games and rarely try anything else. Also natural considering GAAS is designed to have that effect on people, to keep them playing that and only that.

"SP players are generally more willing to play different things and try new stuff"

And yet they mostly play action games, especially Soulbornes.

 

[Guilty_AI]

"SP players are generally more willing to play different things and try new stuff"

And yet they mostly play action games, especially Soulbornes.

And crpgs, and racers, and shooters, and weird horror games, and imm-sims, and VNs, and factory building games, and jrpgs, and cooking games... should i go on?

 

[Guilty_AI]

Actually you'll see nothing but more expensive sequels or new titles with Disney IP attached. There's very little innovation happening in the SP space today because there's no reward for it. SP gamers largely reject innovation. There is no Lethal Company or Among Us or PUBG in the SP space. It's been coasting for over a decade on formula.

Again, you're clearly basing yourself off gamepass almost exclusively. I can tell even more by your disney commentary.
Also, Lethal Company gaas? LMAO.

They're comfortable with the quality of their preferred GAAS titles but the market clearly demonstrates a willingness for the GAAS consumer to check out new GAAS titles.

In other words, they'll check some stuff out of curiosity but are still unwilling to invest in anything else. AKA, not a lot of space for new GAAS games.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

And crpgs

Like Baldurs Gate III - Sequel

and racers

And Gran Turismo 7 - Sequel

and shooters

And Doom 5 - Sequel

, and weird horror games

Like Resident Evil 9 - Sequel

, and imm-sims

That is a hot genre with no sequels

All the money in the space goes to a small percentage of the big, boring few.

 

[Fbh]

Haven't played all the games in your list, but honestly the only one I'm sad it didn't sell better was Rebirth. Indian Jones is apparently good too (haven't played it) but I think MS overestimated how much people care about that IP these days.

Most of the bombs and underperforming games just aren't very good or suffered from inflated budgets.

Also the good thing about single player games is that even if they underperform at launch they still continue generating revenue over time. Rebirth reportedly did decent on Pc and will continue selling over time (specially as it gets cheaper), they'll probably port it to Switch 2 and then also re-release it as some bundle once all 3 parts are complete.
GAAS that fail are just gone, Sony will forever make zero revenue from Concord.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Like Baldurs Gate III - Sequel

And Disco Elysium, Divinity Original sin 1&2, Rogue Trader, Pathfinder 1&2, Kenshi, among others.

And Gran Turismo 7 - Sequel

And Assetto Corsa, Tokyo Xtreme Racer, Beamng, Wreckfest, as well as some unusual takes on the genre like My Summer Car, Mud/Snowrunner, American Truck SIm, etc.

And Doom 5 - Sequel

And Ultrakill, DUSK, HROT, Turbo Overkill, Selaco, etc

Like Resident Evil 9 - Sequel

And MiSide, Crow country, Dredge, Inscryption, Stay out of the House, Mouthwashing, etc

I think i made my point

 

[Kataploom]

It is, but because what previously was AAA is what now we call AA, so AA is basically way out of proportions since the better balance for most franchises could be found in AA

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I think i made my point

All you've done is list drastically less successful formulaic titles. You're right in that the planned obsolescence of SP games forces their audience to spend money at a quicker rate, but you've shown very little understanding on how todays AAA SP market differs from the one of 10 years ago.

 

[Scrawnton]

Single player games aren't in trouble. Single player game developers that can't properly scope their game and manage their budgets are in trouble.

 

[pudel]

Voted for option Nr. 2....i think there are no real "safe bets" in gaming. You can be the hero today and tomorrow the last asshole. But 5-7 years ago there have been made a lot of terrible decisions....which might have sounded as great and useful ideas at that time, but turned out now to be disastrous. Mistakes were definitely made...yep.

 

[Guilty_AI]

You're right in that the planned obsolescence of SP games forces their audience to spend money at a quicker rate,

"planned obsolescence of SP games" LMAAAO, i guess books and movies are also entertainment with "planned obsolescence". All needs to be eternal, even if its just about brainlessly clicking away at the login bonuses and doing weekly randomly generated quests until your soul rots.

but you've shown very little understanding on how todays AAA SP market differs from the one of 10 years ago.

Oh trust me, i understand it very well.

All you've done is list drastically less successful formulaic titles.

Many of those are quite unique, but then again you don't play SP games so i don't expect you to know that.

Besides, games like these that are "drastically less successful" - and yet are still incredibly successful by their own standards - is why SP will continue to live on, whereas vast majority of GAAS can only continue to struggle. Imagine being unable to settle for specific niches, only being able to appeal to mass audiences. Admittedly some do settle for niches, but they hardly bring any more money than releasing SP games.

 

[yogaflame]

End to an era of over bloated budge games. And those woke consultancy like SBI and twisted DEI initiative also adds to the expenses.

I hope new game engines and ML AI will help lessen to expenses of game development on the technical side. But I hope they don't rely to much on those technology of upscaling and frame generation, but still optimize there game properly. There are so many games today that rely on fake frames and upscaled resolution which does not have a good end result.

 

[lh032]

imo, recent AAA SP just awful.....really awful.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I think it's possible, though I'm not married to the idea, that the under 21 generation largely prefers GAAS, and each year that generation slowly pushes out the older gamers who prefer AAA SP.

If a game takes 6 year to develop, then you're greenlighting and releasing in two very different markets.

"planned obsolescence of SP games" LMAAAO, i guess books and movies are also entertainment with "planned obsolescence". All needs to be eternal, even if its just about brainlessly clicking away at the login bonuses and doing weekly randomly generated quests until your soul rots.

Those are ancient mediums. You can't invent the gun and then bristle when strategists point out the swords shortcomings.

These companies games have pathetic completion rates because they don't benefit from gamers completing the games. They benefit from gamers buying the games. It's

Oh trust me, i understand it very well.

Apparently not. The reason I know this is because nobody here does, including me.

Many of those are quite unique, but then again you don't play SP games so i don't expect you to know that.

I do. I much more interested in the medium on the whole than most of NeoGAF.

Besides, games like these that are "drastically less successful" - and yet are still incredibly successful by their own standards - is why SP will continue to live on, whereas vast majority of GAAS can only continue to struggle. Imagine being unable to settle for specific niches, only being able to appeal to mass audiences. Admittedly some do settle for niches, but they hardly bring any more money than releasing SP games.

You're still stuck on success rate when the market shift has never been about success rate. You have to advance your position and grow.

 

[Zacfoldor]

I was gonna say only on PC bub, but truth is AAA SP day and date games are even doing well on PC.

It's woke games that are in trouble. I can't even drag PC into this shit. It's the WOKE damnit, the woke games.

Ain't that right Jason, Taul, and David?

 

[Danjin44]

I do. I much more interested in the medium on the whole than most of NeoGAF.

 

[Klayzer]

Dude is crazy.

 

[Danjin44]

Dude is crazy.

I’m 100% convinced his doing it on purpose for some kind of Internet personality that some YouTubers do.

 

[Zacfoldor]

I think it's possible, though I'm not married to the idea, that the under 21 generation largely prefers GAAS, and each year that generation slowly pushes out the older gamers who prefer AAA SP.

If a game takes 6 year to develop, then you're greenlighting and releasing in two very different markets.

Those are ancient mediums. You can't invent the gun and then bristle when strategists point out the swords shortcomings.

These companies games have pathetic completion rates because they don't benefit from gamers completing the games. They benefit from gamers buying the games. It's

Apparently not. The reason I know this is because nobody here does, including me.

I do. I much more interested in the medium on the whole than most of NeoGAF.

You're still stuck on success rate when the market shift has never been about success rate. You have to advance your position and grow.

I like you're style Men_in_Boxes - you don't take no shit.

You got it wrong about that under 21 gen though. It's like politics. There is no hard and fast rule but you change as you get older. The kids, they gonna change too. You start to get insular. Here's a little factoid. The older each of us get the LESS time we spend with others each day all the way up until when we die.

Your assumption would be 100% in a perfect world, but we are in a world that is currently moving from ignorance to enlightenment. We've never been in a position to track this data before so we don't know if this is unique to gen y OR instead if this is a pattern that repeats each generation. I contend that we are seeing a pattern where young gamers prefer the company of others and as they get older they will replace us as the hateful SP gamer. Consider it my man!

 

[Guilty_AI]

I think it's possible, though I'm not married to the idea, that the under 21 generation largely prefers GAAS, and each year that generation slowly pushes out the older gamers who prefer AAA SP.

If a game takes 6 year to develop, then you're greenlighting and releasing in two very different markets.

Those are ancient mediums. You can't invent the gun and then bristle when strategists point out the swords shortcomings.

These companies games have pathetic completion rates because they don't benefit from gamers completing the games. They benefit from gamers buying the games. It's

sure mate

I do. I much more interested in the medium on the whole than most of NeoGAF.

You're still stuck on success rate when the market shift has never been about success rate. You have to advance your position and grow.

And your brain is stuck on who's making more money, when you should be peeking around the corners to understand future trends. You think BG3 or Elden Ring were just flukes that randomly exploded overnight?