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[Matt_Fox]

Laura Fryer is fast becoming one of my favourite commenters on the video game industry. Very knowledgeable, articulate and balanced.

Her videos are made with quality, they're thoughtful, unrushed and no clickbait.

More like this please.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Then please share with us what are the measures of success decided internally for Avowed, and show us that they have not been reached.

Did I say anywhere that it didn't meet MS' expectations?

 

[TBiddy]

I love these threads. It's easy to spot who hasn't played the games they are commenting on.

 

[Fess]

I have to say it looked a lot better playing than in the previews. Turned out it really looked great when you saw all the areas. Previews did not do it justice

Yeah and the world building, when experiencing it and getting immersed, is actually superb. Feels very handcrafted, every area is unique, cities have their own style, junk everywhere to look lived in, not quite like Elden Ring but similarly there are things everywhere in the wild placed to get you interested to have a closer look searching for loot. The loot is boring though but that’s a different topic…
Just reached the third area. Looks amazing!

 

[Gorgon]

I like Laura but have to disagree with her here. Applauding them for getting the game out simply isn’t good enough. If I went to a Michelin restaurant and they served me beans on toast I wouldn’t be patting them on the back. I’m not likely to go back there.

You missed Laura's point: Obsidian isn't a Michelin restaurant, it's your local friendly burger joint.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

So far out of 3 recent big RPG releases we have:
- Official 2 million copies sold milestone for KCD2
- 8 million copies sold (not shipped) milestone for MHW
- 12 million influencer articles about how Avowed was success or failure without any, like zero numbers from Obisidian or MS. Even the usual '5 billion arrows fired' tripe is abscent from PR channels. But of course somehow it probably did mighty fine because copium is almost free these days.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

You have no idea what you're talking about. There are some things illuminated with purple, nowhere near describes the majority of the game whatsoever. Sounds like regurgitation, doubtful you've touched the game even for a minute.

Look at all this purple:

But I totally understand - you'd have to actually know something about what you're being unnecessarily critical of to realize how wrong that criticism is.

Wide as an ocean, deep as a puddle.

 

[cireza]

Did I say anywhere that it didn't meet MS' expectations?

So this is a success to the only party for which it really matters.

 

[RoadHazard]

Did critics truly claim the art style was bad..? Game looks incredible, environments look awesome...

It has purple lighting = woke. According to a certain group of people.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

So this is a success to the only party for which it really matters.

Sure, but listening to that Laura Fryer, if the goal was to build a team and get more experience, you can't not succeed.

You can't set the bar any lower than that.

Edit:

Unless the team gets axed, because also going by this lady, all signs point towards the game being a flop.

 

[Bert Big Balls]

Laura Fryer is fast becoming one of my favourite commenters on the video game industry. Very knowledgeable, articulate and balanced.

Her videos are made with quality, they're thoughtful, unrushed and no clickbait.

More like this please.

Agreed. She is absolutely brilliant and because of her experience, she has a very interesting insight into the industry.

 

[TBiddy]

It has purple lighting = woke. According to a certain group of people.

It's certainly a great excuse to shit on a game that the user in question has absolutely no intention of playing, because it's from the wrong publisher.

 

[Woopah]

Imagine launching a new AAAA game that only ranks 4th in its release week…

How is that good?

When Helldivers 2 launched it ranked 7th. Do you think that game had bad engagement?

 

[Topher]

Yeah and the world building, when experiencing it and getting immersed, is actually superb. Feels very handcrafted, every area is unique, cities have their own style, junk everywhere to look lived in, not quite like Elden Ring but similarly there are things everywhere in the wild placed to get you interested to have a closer look searching for loot. The loot is boring though but that’s a different topic…
Just reached the third area. Looks amazing!

Yeah, I got to the point where I had a really good rifle and I just kept upgrading it. The loot didn't give me much reason to do anything but dismantle and then use it to upgrade. And as I mentioned in the OT, the economy was really jacked up. No point trying to buy weapons at all. Minor gripes though. Definitely some things they can improve on if they do Avowed 2, which I hope they do. I think this has the foundation for a kickass franchise on its own.

 

[Shmunter]

“The goal of shipping Avowed may not have been to make it a hit”

Mission a resounding success

 

[samoilaaa]

how can you measure success for a game that has its playerbase mostly on gamepass ?

You cant take into consideration people that boot up the game play for 1 hour and never play it again

maybe count only those that play it for longer that 25% of its main story playtime ? avowed is like 20h long so count the ones that played for 5h+

 

[cireza]

You can't set the bar any lower than that.

You can't set the bar lower than having a profitable activity that allows you to continue said activity. This is already a very high bar, actually.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

You can't set the bar lower than having a profitable activity that allows you to continue said activity. This is already a very high bar, actually.

The question is if it's profitable, though.

Also, why didn't you address the rest of my post?

 

[Gorgon]

The question is if it's profitable, though.

Also, why didn't you address the rest of my post?

At this moment I doubt it. It keeps people fed on GP and makes some money back on PC, but that's probably it. Releasing it on PS5 may make it profitable, though, and in that case it's a win from a purely business standpoint.

 

[cireza]

The question is if it's profitable, though.

Also, why didn't you address the rest of my post?

About the fact that a team progresses with time, or the edit about the game being a flop ?

None of this is of interest. The first is obvious, the second is wrong. Have you watched the video ? How can you conclude that this is a flop ? If anything, and the video was not necessary for this, we already knew it well : Obsidian is a company that releases many games with budgets under control. Avowed, like all their other games, will generate income for years to come. Unless you can travel in time 10 years ahead, nobody can say that this is a flop right now.

The very conclusion in the video is that more developers should actually try to understand how Obsidian works and, maybe, try to replicate this.

Again, have you watched the video ?

 

[Complistic]

The games fun and looks nice enough for AA.

 

[DanielG165]

I’m greatly enjoying it, so the game is a “success” for my personal use case.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

About the fact that a team progresses with time, or the edit about the game being a flop ?

None of this is of interest. The first is obvious, the second is wrong. Have you watched the video ? How can you conclude that this is a flop ? If anything, and the video was not necessary for this, we already knew it well : Obsidian is a company that releases many games with budgets under control. Avowed, like all their other games, will generate income for years to come. Unless you can travel in time 10 years ahead, nobody can say that this is a flop right now.

The very conclusion in the video is that more developers should actually try to understand how Obsidian works and, maybe, try to replicate this.

Again, have you watched the video ?

I did watch the video, I summarized it.

About the signs of the game flopping, the video literally starts with Laura Fryer pointing out that all signs seem to indicate as much.

Maybe it's confirmation bias, but many have said the same thing.
Only now we have someone with more insight saying the same.

 

[Gorgon]

The very conclusion in the video is that more developers should actually try to understand how Obsidian works and, maybe, try to replicate this.

I think Laura is on point here. I also think that some of the perceived issues with their games like Avowed and The Outer Worlds have more to do with what the games are specifically than with budget or lack of ambition. The budget is fine and some issues like the NPCs will almost for sure be rectified on a possible Avowed 2 if it comes out (given the negative reaction).

For example, one of the problems I had with TOW is that even the supposed humour wasn't that great, to say the least. And the game was a bit of a snooze fest too. AND the setting tried too hard to be Fallout: Space. All of this could have worked but really didn't. It eneded up being an OK game but that was it.

I think also that some of the issues with Avowed were that 1) it really doesn't feel all that different setting-wise from most other fantasy games (regardless of one's opinion on the lore per se), and then that combined with 2) the art direction, the look and feel of the combat, the atmosphere and tone, etc, which are very dependent on personal preference: some people loved it, others felt it's dissapointing. I'm in the latter group, but again that's personal preference not an objective negative.

I'd suspect that Obsidian would be more successful if they tried something that the market is actually starved for instead of another "me too" fantasy game. For example, the projects they had with SEGA in the past, like Alpha Protocol and the Aliens: Crucible (cancelled) RPG. I think RPGs like that would drive a lot more interest than making more Pillars of Eternity setting-based fantasy games (because it's frankly not very differentiable from anything else in the market) or more TOWs, even at the same budget/ambition level. I could be wrong.

 

[DownLikeBCPowder]

It’s the same Fortnite art style as Veilguard, tells you all you need to know about their target audience. This is a company that shipped Tyranny btw.

The game looks nothing like Fortnite. No idea what you mean..

 

[Fess]

Yeah, I got to the point where I had a really good rifle and I just kept upgrading it. The loot didn't give me much reason to do anything but dismantle and then use it to upgrade. And as I mentioned in the OT, the economy was really jacked up. No point trying to buy weapons at all. Minor gripes though. Definitely some things they can improve on if they do Avowed 2, which I hope they do. I think this has the foundation for a kickass franchise on its own.

Yeah I’m doing something similar. Two-handed sword as primary weapon and a rifle as secondary weapon. Dismantling all weapons and armour without buffs. I sometimes buy upgrading parts, plus health potions and lock picks.

All in all I enjoy it far more than I thought I would even though I can see where it falls short. Definitely hoping for a sequel. Or expansions, no idea how many areas there are but the map looks big and unless there is some lore stopping them there should be no problem adding more map chunks to explore when it’s not full open.

 

[Mobilemofo]

Below expectations but keeps their job.

Oh wait that was my annual review.

Lidl have got a winner.

 

[tronied]

Based on my playtime in this, can we have more of these failures and "mid" games please! It really seems to click for me.

 

[AJUMP23]

I like this video. The lady really knows what she is talking about. I would say Avowed is a let down, but the future looks good for Obsidian.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Only Microsoft can say if it's meeting their expectations, those claiming Steam numbers mean anything when MS have other plans with their games and it's too trap people into their ecosystem.

Even if the game is having loses, MS is the only one that can say if the loses are worth it for them or not.

What are those other plans by MS?

Microsoft is selling their game on Steam (and now on PlayStation + Nintendo) because they want their games to sell a lot of copies. That's the plan and the reason why this game is on Steam in the first place.

If the game sold well on Steam, it's a success. If it sold poorly on Steam, it's a failure. Simple as that.

 

[cireza]

I think Laura is on point here. I also think that some of the perceived issues with their games like Avowed and The Outer Worlds have more to do with what the games are specifically than with budget or lack of ambition. The budget is fine and some issues like the NPCs will almost for sure be rectified on a possible Avowed 2 if it comes out (given the negative reaction).

For example, one of the problems I had with TOW is that even the supposed humour wasn't that great, to say the least. And the game was a bit of a snooze fest too. AND the setting tried too hard to be Fallout: Space. All of this could have worked but really didn't. It eneded up being an OK game but that was it.

I think also that some of the issues with Avowed were that 1) it really doesn't feel all that different setting-wise from most other fantasy games (regardless of one's opinion on the lore per se), and then that combined with 2) the art direction, the look and feel of the combat, the atmosphere and tone, etc, which are very dependent on personal preference: some people loved it, others felt it's dissapointing. I'm in the latter group, but again that's personal preference not an objective negative.

I'd suspect that Obsidian would be more successful if they tried something that the market is actually starved for instead of another "me too" fantasy game. For example, the projects they had with SEGA in the past, like Alpha Protocol and the Aliens: Crucible (cancelled) RPG. I think RPGs like that would drive a lot more interest than making more Pillars of Eternity setting-based fantasy games (because it's frankly not very differentiable from anything else in the market) or more TOWs, even at the same budget/ambition level. I could be wrong.

Great post, I agree with pretty much everything.

One thing though, I am pretty sure that NPCs are definitely a matter of time/budget. This is exactly the kind of stuff that will require a lot of resources to improve.

But all that being said, I don't see why games like Outer Worlds or Avowed would not be good enough to keep the team running and making new games long term. Which is precisely what is happening.

Alpha Protocol was fantastic.

 

[Idleyes]

I’ll say this again, Obsidian needs to recognize that they’re a mid-tier studio and embrace it. Stop marketing your games like they’re AAA. Honestly, I’d go even further and suggest they focus on being a solid A-tier studio. Look at Stardew Valley, a massive success, yet hardly anyone's bitching about whether ConcernedApe can pull it off again with Haunted Chocolatier. Just drop the over-the-top AAA trailers and yawl will be good.

 

[Viruz]

“The goal of shipping Avowed may not have been to make it a hit”

Mission a resounding success

I think she's just being nice because that's the fate of gamepass tailored games

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I’ll say this again, Obsidian needs to recognize that they’re a mid-tier studio and embrace it. Stop marketing your games like they’re AAA. Honestly, I’d go even further and suggest they focus on being a solid A-tier studio. Look at Stardew Valley, a massive success, yet hardly anyone's bitching about whether ConcernedApe can pull it off again with Haunted Chocolatier. Just drop the over-the-top AAA trailers and yawl will be good.

Isn't that pretty much what they said when they were discussing "mild successes"?

 

[Idleyes]

Isn't that pretty much what they said when they were discussing "mild successes"?

It can be seen that way if one chooses to interpret it as such.

 

[Buggy Loop]

Yes. And it's perfectly fine to compare one-and-done single-player games with one-and-done single-player games anyway, right?

Currently, there are more people playing:

• Baldur's Gate 3 (29,721)
• Red Dead Redemption 2 (23,076)
• Black Myth Wukong (17,239)
• Cyberpunk 2077 (16,029)
• Kingdom Come: Deliverance [part 1] (8,100)
• The Witcher 3 (7,981)
• Hogwart's Legacy (4,406)
• Dark Souls 3 (3,939)
• Sekiro (3,303)
• Dying Light 1 (2,848)

than

• Avowed (2,538)

It's not like people are comparing Avowed's player count with live-service games like Counter Strike / Helldivers 2.

So some of the best selling games in history ?

Nice touch also to pick up the CCU during euro time which is not its 24h peak. 6,494

By the same metric here's another list

24h peaks, because I'm not dumb and waiting for the lows during the day to make a point

• Spider-man 2 (4,796)
• God of War Ragnarok (3,816)
• Days Gone (2,911)
• Horizon Forbidden west (2,651)
• God of War (2,613)
• Spider-man (2,026)
• Last of us part 1 (1,712
• Horizon zero dawn (1,429)
• Uncharted legacy of thieves (761)
• Spider-man miles morales (716)
• Horizon zero dawn remaster (617)
• Ratchet and clank rift apart (257)
• Sackboy (213)
• Returnal (187)
• Until Dawn (90)
• Lego Horizon (14)

Spoiler: for the LOLs

• Concord (1) → WHO IS EVEN PLAYING THIS!!???? (but its GAAS so should not be in list, couldn't resist)

And those are without gamepass or battle.net

But regardless, no matter how peoples keep dogging on Sony CCUs pre Helldivers 2 on Steam and saying its failures, I beg to differ, they have success even without crazy CCUs like the above lists you put out

From 2020 → 2023, Sony's went from $35M → $80M → $250M → $450M
2024 accounts for Helldivers 2 and they went → $700M and 2025 is likely on its way to $1B.

 

[Mephisto40]

Obsidians "golden age" was when New Vegas was released, it's already been and gone

 

[Buggy Loop]

Obsidians "golden age" was when New Vegas was released, it's already been and gone

Peoples that would skip Tyranny, Pillars of Eternity 1 & 2 which are much more recent, I wouldn't call them RPG fans to begin with. The sales of them is shit so its really telling on the state of gamers. They beg for single player RPGs with depth yet they neglected the above. Then Pikachu face when Obsidian tries a new formula? The dumbest fucking fanbase on earth.

 

[adamsapple]

Peoples that would skip Tyranny, Pillars of Eternity 1 & 2 which are much more recent, I wouldn't call them RPG fans to begin with. The sales of them is shit so its really telling on the state of gamers. They beg for single player RPGs with depth yet they neglected the above. Then Pikachu face when Obsidian tries a new formula? The dumbest fucking fanbase on earth.

I think when more people get out of the bubble and actually play the game, and see things like the second zone's hidden scenarios that the game only vaguely nudges you but doesn't explicitly give quest markers, they'll see that there's a lot of classic Obsidian quest design here ala New Vegas.

 

[Gojiira]

Engagement means nothing. A million players ‘engaging’ through a $10 Gamepass subscription does not recoup the cost of the game, especially when that fee is paying for more than just Avowed…Avowed did not sell, its a flop, a all around average game but Xbox seems fine releasing average. Not interested in Outer Worlds 2 or anything from Obsidian any more, they aren’t RPG’s, just shallow pretentious wannabes.

 

[Nickolaidas]

even duller dialogue full of tedious terminology that makes it hard to listen to even with the compendium

DUDE. THIS. This is the reason I couldn't get into Pillars 1. Hundreds of weird names for races, gods, places and events. None shown, all expositioned. I hated that.

 

[Heisenberg007]

So some of the best selling games in history ?

Nice touch also to pick up the CCU during euro time which is not its 24h peak. 6,494

By the same metric here's another list

24h peaks, because I'm not dumb and waiting for the lows during the day to make a point

• Spider-man 2 (4,796)
• God of War Ragnarok (3,816)
• Days Gone (2,911)
• Horizon Forbidden west (2,651)
• God of War (2,613)
• Spider-man (2,026)
• Last of us part 1 (1,712
• Horizon zero dawn (1,429)
• Uncharted legacy of thieves (761)
• Spider-man miles morales (716)
• Horizon zero dawn remaster (617)
• Ratchet and clank rift apart (257)
• Sackboy (213)
• Returnal (187)
• Until Dawn (90)
• Lego Horizon (14)

Spoiler: for the LOLs

• Concord (1) → WHO IS EVEN PLAYING THIS!!???? (but its GAAS so should not be in list, couldn't resist)

And those are without gamepass or battle.net

But regardless, no matter how peoples keep dogging on Sony CCUs pre Helldivers 2 on Steam and saying its failures, I beg to differ, they have success even without crazy CCUs like the above lists you put out

From 2020 → 2023, Sony's went from $35M → $80M → $250M → $450M
2024 accounts for Helldivers 2 and they went → $700M and 2025 is likely on its way to $1B.

Should I have waited for the peak? I used the current-player list for ALL games. How is that biased?

And why are you showing Sony's PC results? That has been a complete failure for them, IMO. That's not a high standard.

Avowed hasn't sold well at all on Steam, and the CCU is evidence of that. Projected sales are also around 250K. How is that a good number or a success for a day one launch?

 

[Karak]

I gave some positives and negatives earlier, so I think you might be reading too much into my use of 'trick' based on others comments.

The post wasn't carrying on the points in my discussion and branched out to add things unrelated to what my initial post was about and the core reason I pointed out the differences initially. Which is why it ultimately resolved as not directly related but instead extended back into the "nothing alone can be left alone in gaming discussion lol"

But regardless its fine anyway. Its not like we won't all be here for some other kind of convo in a week or 2 around the same kinds of things lol. And you seem like good peeps to talk to which is always nice.
Keep on gaming!

 

[Karak]

One thing to note is not only that bullet point but she is know within the industry as having a good record for getting cross goaled teams back into alignment and on track. Her work for sure directly touches the stuff she talked about in this video and while some of her conclusions are drawn from earlier times judging ca changed enviroment(MS has obviously changed) its still great data to have even if its less directly meaningful now.

 

[PeteBull]

Danny DeVito checked sales of Avowed, bois

Its official now, game bombed hard af

 

[Buggy Loop]

Should I have waited for the peak? I used the current-player list for ALL games. How is that biased?

24h peak, reallllyyyyyy fucking easy with steamDB

And why are you showing Sony's PC results? That has been a complete failure for them, IMO. That's not a high standard.

Well that's where you're clearly wrong. Sony is not dropping PC, proof's in the pudding.

From 2020 → 2023, Sony's went from $35M → $80M → $250M → $450M

and without gamepass effect

Complete failure?

LOL

You got it

I remember a certain member on this forum that is founder of Iconera that had this kind of mindset too. What's your iconera alt?

Avowed hasn't sold well at all on Steam, and the CCU is evidence of that. Projected sales are also around 250K. How is that a good number or a success for a day one launch?

Early access 5 days before for one. Imagine, peoples paid $90 to access it early and had peaks of 9k when you can just get gamepass for a few dollars.

As for success, only Microsoft knows this. CCU warriors are failing to see long term, impact of peoples discovering Pillars of eternity lore and looking into the games, etc. CCU peaks are showing phenomenas of hype/streaming and gaas. You, I, nobody has the gamepass / Battle.net data. And we certainly don't have a picture long term.

On top that by all metrics, Obsidian RPGs have never been CCU monsters, even when gamepass was not a factor.

All time peaks

• Pillars of Eternity (41,906), the most funded RPG on kickstarter of all time.
• South park stick of truth (34,811)
• Pillars of Eternity II Deadfire (22,724)
• Outer worlds (20,349)
• Tyranny (15,792)
• Alpha protocol (2,427)

Fallout New vegas is in an odd situation although its by far the biggest Obsidian seller, >11M units, it entered Steam after windows store and etc, but during the TV series it still had a surge to the point where it crashed nexusmods servers. Still 51,038 all time peak, 45,134 during TV show peak.

KOTOR II flopped hard, 1.5M units is the number circulating around. Not even worth pulling CCU as that's too fucking old.

Avowed with gamepass players easily clears those CCUs for sure. Unless someone wants to try to convince me the majority of peoples went ahead and spent $70 on Steam over gamepass subscription? I would be curious to make a poll in the OT on peoples who are actually playing it and I assure you most went gamepass.

So keep warring, but nobody can really extrapolate CCUs by any meaningful way. If peoples expect an Elden ring number out of Obsidian and a franchise lore like Pillars of Eternity, I don't know what to tell you outside that you're trying really hard.

 

[DownLikeBCPowder]

DUDE. THIS. This is the reason I couldn't get into Pillars 1. Hundreds of weird names for races, gods, places and events. None shown, all expositioned. I hated that.

The more you play, the more is shown. But I can't fault you, it is proper noun assault at first. But I'm really glad I stuck with it.

 

[Horseganador]

Well no, it seems that it sold very little on Steam and it has already disappeared from sales charts in the UK.

 

[RafterXL]

The astroturfing of Avowed continues. Enjoy the game, but let's not pretend it's anything but a massive financial failure. Luckily Microsoft is the wealthiest company on the planet and can eat these losses, but eating losses isn't the same thing as being successful. And don't tell me Microsoft is "happy" with the sales because the same person who said that also said people were "raving" about the game, which we know is bullshit. Not even the critics were raving, and user scores are actually lower than them.

When Helldivers 2 launched it ranked 7th. Do you think that game had bad engagement?

This is nonsense. Helldivers 2 sold 1 million copies in the first week, and that's with constant server issues until week 3. It was the best selling game of Feb '24, the month it released.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

Imagine an employee raising a stink a few months before launch and it not affecting interest in your game.